Timing & trends

Dow Blasts To Record Highs!

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The remarkable bull run in the stock market continues.

Moments ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average got as high as 15,731. This is an all-time intraday high.

The S&P 500 is within points of its all-time high.

This comes amid little market-moving news.

Some experts have warned that stocks may be in the process of forming a bubble. But relative to previous all-time highs, other experts note that the fundamentals of the stock market are much more robust.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its October jobs report.

“If one word characterizes the market’s likely reaction, it’s asymmetric,” reported BI’s Matthew Boesler previewing the jobs report. “Most seem to agree that, as Citi global head of G-10 FX strategy Steven Englander puts it, “a good number is unambiguously good, whereas a bad number is ambiguously bad.””

Wall Street economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for 120,000 nonfarm payrolls in October, down from 148,000 in September.

 

We’re About to Lose the Internet as We Know it

77740325-660x415We’re About to Lose Net Neutrality.

Net neutrality is a dead man walking. The execution date isn’t set, but it could be days, or months (at best). And since net neutrality is the principle forbidding huge telecommunications companies from treating users, websites, or apps differently — say, by letting some work better than others over their pipes — the dead man walking isn’t some abstract or far-removed principle just for wonks: It affects the internet as we all know it.

Once upon a time, companies like AT&T, Comcast, Verizon, and others declared a war on the internet’s foundational principle: that its networks should be “neutral” and users don’t need anyone’s permission to invent, create, communicate, broadcast, or share online. The neutral and level playing field provided by permissionless innovation has empowered all of us with the freedom to express ourselves and innovate online without having to seek the permission of a remote telecom executive.

But today, that freedom won’t survive much longer if a federal court — the second most powerful court in the nation behind the Supreme Court, the DC Circuit — is set to strike down the nation’s net neutrality law, a rule adopted by the Federal Communications Commission in 2010. Some will claim the new solution “splits the baby” in a way that somehow doesn’t kill net neutrality and so we should be grateful. But make no mistake: Despite eight years of public and political activism by multitudes fighting for freedom on the internet, a court decision may soon take it away.

Game of Loopholes and Rules

How did we get here?

….read it all HERE

Due: 3rd Phase Speculative Blow-Off

Richard Russell: “My thoughts go back to 1957.  I wrote my first article for Barron’s in December of 1957, in which I noted that we’d never had a third speculative phase in that bull market.  Soon a vicious recession was on, and everybody was bearish.  I predicted that despite the recession, we would see a speculative third phase in the secular bull market.  The third phase did come, and my forecast proved correct.

I’m wondering whether the same situation exists today, with the speculative third phase somewhere in our future.  Despite the sluggish GDP, I believe you will see a third phase speculative blow-off in this bull market.  Often in a bull market’s third phase, profits are larger than anything seen during the first and second phases of the bull market.  For this reason, my current thinking is that subscribers should hold gold and DIAs.  The last thing investors are expecting now is a profitable third phase explosion in stocks, and perhaps something close to hyperinflation in the money market.

I believe you see a phenomenon where increasingly bullish retail buyers are coming into this market, while at the same time institutional money is taking profits and moving to the sidelines.  I expect this action to accelerate in the coming months, leading to an upside boom in stocks, along with a good deal of churning action.  It is now recognized that the forces of deflation are pressing down on the US economy, and that more QE will be needed.  This will halt deflation and gradually lead to inflation, finally being expressed as a boom in the stock market.

Thus the great bull market will end as all bull markets do: with a massive entrance of the retail public and subtle distribution by institutional money.  Our subscribers’ choice: going into what appears to be a growing stock market bubble, or remaining in the universe of gold, which is acting as though it is at a bear market bottom.  

As for gold, China is accumulating all it can at these attractive prices.  It seems to me that China is intent on creating the world’s largest hoard of gold.  The Golden Rule: “He who owns the gold makes the rules,” and owns the reserve currency … I think the present system has, in effect, been destroyed by more debt than we can handle.  I think a new system will be required, a system based on gold, which will automatically put a brake on debt.” 

bubblesandmanias

 

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE. 

About Richard Russell

Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron’s during the late-’50s through the ’90s. Through Barron’s and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-’66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-’74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974.

Letters are published and mailed every three weeks. We offer a TRIAL (two consecutive up-to-date issues) for $1.00 (same price that was originally charged in 1958). Trials, please one time only. Mail your $1.00 check to: Dow Theory Letters, PO Box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038 (annual cost of a subscription is $300, tax deductible if ordered through your business).

On the heels of more volatile trading in global markets, today Canadian legend John Ing warned King World News that we are now in the “last innings” of the end game.  Ing, who has been in the business for 43 years, also revealed a coming radical change in policy by China that is going to shock market participants.  He also discussed what all of this will mean for key markets such as gold in his fascinating interview.

…continue reading HERE

A Way to Play Coming Defaults

The Real Economy Cannot Support the Financial One – A way to play coming defaults

black swanIf we assume financial assets represent a claim against real assets, then it’s not a stretch to say financial asset valuation is way out of whack relative to the real economy. 

Claims on the real economy have increased 11:1 since the credit crunch…I don’t think it is a stretch to expect lots of defaults and bankruptcies if this trend is not turned around quickly.  And I don’t see much on the horizon to be optimistic about a quick turnaround.  

A trading idea to play future defaults using ETFs.