Nearly all economic data as reported on a monthly or quarterly basis have so far reflected the era in the US before the economy reacted to the coronavirus. These reactions – from panic-buying of toilet paper to airlines shutting down much of their international and now even domestic routes – were phased into the economy beginning in later February and have now risen to a crescendo. But they’re slow in making their way into the economic data.

We get company by company warnings, and we get the government’s and the Fed’s reaction to the events, but we haven’t seen the impact in the official data yet. The first data to seriously reflect this are the surveys of company executives such as the Purchasing Manager’s Indices for March, out later this month, or the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing index, which was released this morning,

And it’s ugly: The Empire State Manufacturing index of General Business Conditions plunged by 34.4 points, the largest point-drop on record, from a still relatively sanguine level of 12.9 in February, to the level in March of negative -21.5, the lowest since 2009, and right at where it had been in October 2008, following the Lehman bankruptcy in September. And this was just the first reaction related to the impact of Covid-19 mitigation measures…CLICK for complete article

Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) announced the temporary shutdown of the Anglo Converter Plant and declares “force majeur” following an explosion at its plant in South Africa.

• Anglo American is the world’s third largest producer of platinum (“Pt”) and palladium (“Pd”)
• Significant production curtailed due to shutdown, i.e. possible annualized cuts of 500K oz Pt and 300K oz Pd now forecasted for 2020
• Platinum market expected to swing to deficit of 400K oz from surplus of 100K in 2020
• Palladium deficit in 2020 now forecasted to increase from ~500K oz to ~800K oz (300K increase to forecasted deficit) Click here for full article.

The territorial government of Yukon has reached an agreement with the Ross River Dena Council to initiate a $71 MM infrastructure program designed to improve the North Canol Road and the Robert Campbell Highway. Recall Macmillan Pass development will require upgrading a ~230 km segment of the Canol Road to ‘all season’ status, for which capital costs are pegged at $105 MM (2018 PEA estimate). Important government commitment aside, it remains to be seen how much will be spent on improving the North Canol Road (versus the Robert Campbell Highway). In the meantime, our conservative model continues to assume Fireweed will finance the access road’s full upgrade requirement. Click here to read full press release.