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Marc Faber Responds To CNBC Mockery, Asks "How Has CNBC's Portfolio Done Since 1999?" PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marc Faber via ZeroHedge   
Tuesday, 29 July 2014 13:18

25523-thumbHaving provided his clarifying perspective on why the markets are extremely fragile and due for a 20-30% correction, Marc Faber was assaulted by CNBC's Scott Wapner reading off a litany of recent calls that have not worked out as planned. His response was notable: "I started to work in 1970, and over that career, somehow, somewhere, I must have made some right calls; otherwise I wouldn't be in business."

What CNBC then edited out of the transcript was Faber pointing out his 22% annualized return in his publicly-viewable funds since then and asking - sounding somewhat frustrated at the anchor's mockery (and background snickers) - "I wonder what the CNBC portfolio would look like since 1999?" The response: silence.

*Note: Continute reading for Marc's view of the Fed, the health of the market, money-printing, the remarkable performance of the Phillipines, Indonesia, India, Thailand Vietnam, and his recommendations. All in two short 2 minute video's and transcript that also reveal CNBC's mockery of someone who isn't wildly bullish - All HERE - Money Talks Editor

 
Silver Set To Star PDF Print E-mail
Written by Austin Galt   
Tuesday, 29 July 2014 07:04

With silver recently putting in a nice 10% plus rally, I thought it was time to follow up my last article on silver, Silver Set To Stun. It's been two months since that article so there is some new information to process. Let's get straight into it with the monthly chart.

34663 a

I showed this chart in my previous article but I thought it would be good to refresh our minds and provide a good overview.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the upleg from the 2008 low to 2011 high. Price is finding support at the 76.4% level of US$18.10 after having had three cracks at it. A triple bottom.

Price has bounced strongly off this last bottom and with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator currently looking bullish, the blue line being above the red line, perhaps we can expect price to continue higher over the next couple of months.

However, triple bottoms (and double bottoms) are actually not a common trend ending pattern so it is unlikely that price will rise above the previous major swing high set in August 2013. This is denoted by the horizontal line labelled Major resistance and stands at US$25.13.

So, if that analysis is correct, we could expect price to turn back down and bust the triple bottom low of US$18.17. However, I don't believe this will be a clean break. On the contrary, I think it will only be a marginal break before reversing and putting in a false break low. Why?

Well, firstly, Gann noted that price normally busts support (and resistance) on the fourth attempt. But if a clean break lower isn't made then that is a very bullish sign. And combine that with a common false break low pattern that runs all the stops that will have built up under the triple bottom low. A nice combo in itself!

So we have three pieces of evidence suggesting the triple bottom price level is a good candidate for the final low price. First, the 76.4% Fibonacci level. Second, an unsuccessful fourth attempt at support which is very bullish. And third, a common false break low pattern.

But let's add another piece of evidence. If three's a crowd, then four's a party! We can see in the green highlighted circle is where price really started to streak away. That is the level whereby price went parabolic. And when correcting, price often pulls back to the level where the explosion higher began. And the current triple bottom is smack bang right in this zone. Woohoo.

Before we crack open the champers, let's calm down and move onto the weekly chart.

34663 b

I have drawn two black down trending lines. One from the 2011 high and one from the August 2013 high. This recent rally has busted above both of these trend lines. The silver bulls are getting all giddy over this. And fair enough. It's the first glimmer of hope they've had in yonks.

But price looks to be retreating in the very near term. I have added Bollinger Bands and while price has retreated from the upper band it may find support around the middle band. And the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) looks to be building strength as demonstrated by the up trending line I have drawn along bottoms. So once price finds support shortly, perhaps we could expect a nice push higher. The bulls are certainly pawing the ground ready to charge!

Let's wrap it up by looing in close with the daily chart.

34663 c

Ok, this looks a bit daunting but let's break it all down. We'll begin with the small picture. Price recently rallied from its May low to recent July high. Price now appears to be correcting that rally. I have drawn Fibonacci retracement levels of this rally to help determine where this little correction may end. The two levels that stand out to me are the 50% and 61.8% levels at US$20.09 and US$19.74 respectively. The little blue circle is at the 50% level while the 61.8% level is shown in the little green circle.

I have also drawn a Fibonacci Fan and interestingly the 76.4% angle looks to intersect with the 61.8% level towards the end of the first week of August. From the weekly analysis, we could surmise that this time period for a pullback low fits in quite nicely. Let's see.

Once the low is in, I'm expecting a strong rally that will put that of gold's to shame The break above the two down trending lines, as shown on the weekly chart, should provide a good springboard for the next rally. The permabulls are already salivating in anticipation. But more disappointment awaits if my analysis is correct. Knowing that triple bottoms generally don't end trends, the probability is that the August 2013 high won't be broken. So, where will the rally end?

I have drawn Fibonacci retracement levels of the down leg from the August 2013 high to recent May 2014 low. I favour a deep retracement, at least up to the 76.4% level and possibly higher. I have drawn two highlighted circles where the 76.4% level intersects with a couple of Fibonacci Fan angles - the 38.2% angle as shown in the orange circle and the 50% angle as shown in the yellow circle. The orange circle occurs in mid September while the yellow circle occurs in mid October. So they are potential timing periods to look for a high. Personally, I favour the orange circle scenario. Let's see.

Now price may rise even higher so I have added the rarely used 88.6% Fibonacci level. If the 76.4% level is broken then watching this level and where it may connect with any fan angle may reveal the final rally ending point.

I'm not currently involved here, still expecting the final false break low, most likely in 2015, to provide my main entry point. But I'm certainly tempted to get a sliver!

 

 

 
Shifting Sands of Time, Countries & Markets. What to Do … PDF Print E-mail
Written by Larry Edelson: Swing Trading   
Monday, 28 July 2014 08:13

larry1The sands of time are shifting, and so are vast swaths of geopolitical fault lines … entire countries … economic
systems and yes, the financial markets.

It’s the cumulative affect of intended and unintended consequences of …

 Western governments who embraced Keynesian-style socialism, thinking they could toy with economies through government spending and taxation to try and make the world a fairer place to live.

Yet it’s now backfiring on them, leading to bankrupt governments, pension crises, housing instability, class warfare and more.

 Eastern governments, Asia, rising from the ashes of communism and feudal societies, ushering into the 21st century nearly 4 billion souls, more than 60 percent of the world’s population …

Creating gargantuan demand in every area of life, putting excessive demands on Mother Earth’s natural resources … sending Asian economies on a rocket ride higher, while the West slumps miserably.

 Political leaders, caught in the crossfire, knowing not what to do, but to repeat the mistakes of the past. Consciously or unconsciously, leaders of Western economies are turning against their own people, raising taxes, hunting down every penny of their assets, confiscating assets in Europe, preparing to confiscate assets in the U.S. of A.

larryed Central banks, running amuck, still printing money, now even buying equities, trying desperately to reinflate the global economy.

 Financial markets, some not knowing whether they are coming or going, some coiling up like a tightly wound spring, ready to explode higher … while others are dancing on the edge of a cliff.

What’s an investor to do?

My view: With the ramping up of the war cycles, the cycles of human nature that predispose societies to conflict and that cause immense turmoil in economics and markets …

Every investor should batten down the hatches and prepare to both protect your wealth and profit from the coming turmoil, the shifting sands of time … from the crises and the opportunities they present.

The steps I recommend …

FIRST, if you haven’t already done so, start buying gold again. Physical gold and gold ETFs. Add some silver too. Nibble away at the metals, and if they move a tad lower, buy more.

SECOND, I maintain my view that the stock markets of Europe and the United States are on the edge of a cliff. Don’t be complacent. Don’t think for a minute that they can’t go over the cliff. They can and will.

They will soon plummet in a short-lived, but very sharp plunge that will scare the dickens out of almost everyone.

How low can they go? Let me give you my new, worst-case targets:

 Dow Jones Industrials, 13,623 (20.25 percent)

 S&P 500 Index, 1,510 (23.7 percent)

 Nasdaq, 3,612 (19.2 percent)

 Europe, in general, based on the iShares Europe ETF (IEV), still 21 percent below its 2007 high, Europe’s equity markets are headed for another devastating plunge that will see them shed, on average, more than 43 percent.

Be smart. If not already out of U.S. and European equity markets, get out now while you can.

Stand on the sidelines with most of the proceeds, using some of it to buy gold and silver, some to buy select Asian equity markets — and most of the cash kept ready to buy back equities after the crash.

THIRD, don’t be complacent about the sovereign bond markets of Europe and the U.S. either. Interest rates will stay low for a while longer, due to so many threats out there and the still present — but weakening — perceptions that sovereign securities are safe.

They are not safe. Sovereign bond prices are on the edge of a cliff too, and there are far safer and better places to put your money these days.

FOURTH, get ready to deploy capital intensely in the commodities sector. Oil and energy are bottoming. Grains are in the final throes of a deflationary decline that I have been warning you about.

Commodities are going to represent some of the most spectacular gains going forward. Pay particular attention to natural gas, which is now making an important secondary bottom and will soon rocket higher.

FIFTH, no matter what you do, don’t be complacent! Complacency will cost you a bloody fortune.

Stay tuned and stay safe …

Larry

View all posts by Larry Edelson

 
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Mark Leibovit
23 July 2014 ~ Michael Campbell's Commentary Service

We intruded on Mark Leibovit's summer break and asked him for...   Read more...

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