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STOCK MARKET - ACTION ALERT - NEUTRAL - SELL 'MAY AND GO AWAY'. AT THE VERY LEAST, I HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR A CORRECTION DOWN TO 14,150 IN THE DJ. That said, A Dow at 16000 and an S&P 500 at 1700 are not unreasonable targets over the next year or so.
Ed Note: I found this table listing the May Performances back to 1928
 With the month of May beginning today, we wanted to highlight the best and worst S&P 500 performances during the month since 1928. Overall, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.15% during the month, which is among the weaker average monthly performances of the year.
While investors debate the merits of 'Sell May and Go Away', it is worth pointing out that May has increasingly become a volatile month in recent years. Two of the ten worst months of May going all the way back to 1928 have both occurred during the current bull market (2010 & 2012). Furthermore, one of the ten best Mays of all time also came during the current bull market (2009). In other words, three of the four Mays during the current bull market have qualified as one of the ten best or worst Mays of all time. That leaves 2011 as the only year where May was not one of the ten best or worst Mays ever. In that year, the S&P 500 declined 1.4%. With the month of May averaging a decline of 2.64% during the current bull market, you can't blame bulls for wanting to take the month off in 2013.
Turnaround Tuesday certainly had its impact in early trading yesterday with the Dow Industrials off 85.00 points, but the market (with the help of the PPT) rallied with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, the VTI and the NYSI posting new bull market highs. With the Fed on tap tomorrow and the European Central Bank after that, traders were content to sit this one out, making it a pretty slow day. Tthe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was able to post its 16th consecutive positive Tuesday. This is an all-time record for Tuesdays, and is within shouting distance of the Dow's streak of 24 consecutive Wednesday wins posted in 1968.
For the first time in more than 20 years, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced plans to sell debt and will issue $17 billion in bonds. The market reacted positively to this news, sending the shares more than 3% higher. (CNBC).
The prices of single-family homes rose 9.3% in February, the largest year-over-year increase in nearly seven years, per the S&P Case-Shiller home price index. All 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the index enjoyed positive gains on the housing-price front. (The Washington Post).
The prices of single-family homes rose 9.3% in February, the largest year-over-year increase in nearly seven years, per the S&P Case-Shiller home price index. All 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the index enjoyed positive gains on the housing-price front. (The Washington Post).
Consumer confidence ticked up to 68.1 in April from 61.9 last month, as the percentage of respondents expecting improved business conditions over the next six months rose to 16.9% from 15% in March. (Los Angeles Times).
The Dow Jones Industrials were up 21.05 at 14839.80 or +0.14%. On April 19 we traded down to 14444.03 which was a new low as compared to the 14887.51 record high from April 11. The October, 2007 peak of 14198.10 is a theoretical pullback number, but unless we take out 14444.03, forget about the correction to 14198.
The Dow Transports were up 27.92 at 6177.95 or +0.45%. The Transports have held recent lows: 5902.82 from April 15 and 5878.12 from April 5. That's a positive. The Transports formed a double-top, i.e., 6215.90 from April 10 versus 6291.65 from March 19. That's a negative. Confirmation of the resumption of the decline would be confirmed under the April 5 low of 5878.22, look for the 5500-5600 area as next support. Bigger picture, possible bullish reverse 'head and shoulders' patterns have formed: 1) From July, 2011 to present and 2) May, 2008 to present. The upside measurements are astronomical anywhere from 2600 points from the former to 3400 points to the latter ABOVE CURRENT HIGHS! If this is true and if the Transports are indeed the market leader I believe it is, we have a long way to go in this bull market! But, we would have to take the 'double-top' first to give this bullish scenario any more credence.
The S&P 500 was up 3.96 or +0.25% at 1597.57, a new bull market high! I have written it sure likes we're headed to 1625.00 in the SPX. That said, the next theoretical downside target is 1497 if and when we take out 1536.03.
The Nasdaq Composite closed at a new bull market high of 3328.79 up 21.77 or +0.66% .
The broad-based NYSI (New York Stock Exchange Index) was up 31.66 at 9276.88 or +0.34% which is a new bull market high.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500 (i.e., the higher the number, the more fear in the marketplace) is down .19 at 1352. On April 18 it surged to 18.20 intraday. On Friday, March 15, it traded as low as 11.21, the lowest level since February 2007, so I guess these are our parameters going forward. The higher we go in the VIX, the more likely a bear cycle is upon us. It looks like we may be headed into the 20s.
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Michael Campbell's EMERGENCY GOLD SUMMIT - MAY 23 in Vancouver! The big four who predicted the drop in gold will you what's next: Mark Leibovit, Martin Armstrong, David Bensimon and Michael Campbell.
http://moneytalks.net/2013-world-outlook-financial-conference-event-info.html
About Mark Leibovit
Mark Leibovit, CIMA, is Chief Market Strategist for VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (tm) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.
He began his, thus far, 35 year career in the financial industry as a market maker on the Chicago Board Options Exchange where he made a market in such issues as Newmont Mining and later continuing on to serve as Director of Research at Rodman and Renshaw. He is both a Certified Investment Management Analyst (CIMA) and Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF) and is also a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and the CFA Institute. Mr. Leibovit's extensive media profile includes seven years as a consultant 'Elf' on Louis Rukeyser's WALL STREET WEEK television program and over thirty years as a 'Market Monitor' guest for PBS' THE NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. His specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis , 'The Traders Book of Volume' was recently released by McGraw-Hill. Mr. Leibovit is currently Timer Digest's #2 Gold Market Timer for 2011 and has also been named the #1 Gold Market Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2010. And, he was named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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