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Gold Stock ETFs: Outrageously Bullish PDF Print E-mail
Written by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates   
Tuesday, 24 June 2014 07:48
  1. Global fundamentals for gold are bullish. Let’s do a quick review of the facts.
  2. Narendra Modi has been elected to build gold-obsessed India into the world’s largest economy. 
  3. In China, the government’s plan to transition the economy from export-based to consumption-based is proceeding well, with only a tiny drop in GDP occurring.
  4. In Europe, Mario Draghi is considering implementing QE, and he’s committed to doing “whatever it takes” (money printing) to increase growth there. 
  5. In America, Janet Yellen is a dovish Keynesian. Her important 2007 research paper links higher inflation with higher real employment. To review it, please click here now 
  6. In Iraq, Exxon is evacuating personnel. The Kurds, ISIS, and the national government are all fighting each other, while America’s government says they are “monitoring the situation”. The Ukraine situation seems to be worsening on a daily basis. Clearly, the geopolitical price drivers for gold are bullish.
  7. With almost all fundamental and geopolitical lights for a higher gold price flashing green, I’ll argue today that the technical lights are just as green.
  8. Professional investors don’t make a lot of predictions. They lay out possible and likely scenarios, and allocate risk capital only on serious price weakness. On that note, please click here now . This monthly chart, and the HSR zones on it, should be the foundation of all technical analysis about gold. 
  9. What is HSR? Well, HSR is horizontal support and resistance.
  10. Gold declined into key buy-side HSR in the $1228 area twice in 2013, where I immediately “ordered” my subscribers to buy, regardless of the pain threshold. I often refer to my subscribers as financial marines.
  11. I use the 5,15 MA (moving average) series to project possible price trends of size, but not to place capital. Substantial capital has been placed by myself and my subscribers in the $1228 area, with an emphasis on gold stock rather than bullion, and now the key 5,15 MA series is on the verge of flashing a massive uptrend signal. 
  12. In my professional opinion, the most likely big picture scenario for gold can be viewed by clicking here now . Double-click to enlarge.
  13. In 2009, I suggested that a huge inverse H&S bull continuation pattern was forming on the gold chart. It had “outrageously bullish” implications. I believe a much bigger inverse H&S bull continuation pattern is forming now on the monthly gold chart.
  14. If I’m correct, the “bare minimum” arithmetic target is: $2663. I think my target price is absolutely justified by the global fundamental and geopolitical price drivers.
  15. What about the shorter term picture? To view it, please click here now . A bullish flag pattern is in play for gold on this daily chart. That follows a powerful upside breakout from the sizable (and bullish) green wedge pattern.
  16. If the flag pattern fails, I think that failure would create a bullish inverse H&S bottom pattern. To view this scenario, please click here now 
  17. Rather than bullion, my buy-side emphasis in the $1228 area has beengold stock. On that note, please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. This weekly ZJG-TSX chart shows the price action of junior gold stocks. The chart is “over the top” bullish. Note the sizable bullish non-confirmations taking place on almost all the technical indicators and oscillators. 
  18. Volume is immense, and it’s increasing with the rally from the right shoulder low, something that Edwards and Magee outline as highly significant, in their “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” handbook.
  19. Please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. This weekly GDXJ chart has a record-size bullish volume bar. All of the technical indicators and oscillators suggest that the key highs in the $46 and $54.56 areas will be exceeded.
  20. Please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. This Global X Gold Explorers ETF, GLDX, suggests that gold exploration companies are poised for a spectacular upside breakout, targeting the $37.64 area highs of 2012.
  21. Companies that have minimal hedging programs, or none at all, seem to be leading all gold stocks, from the standpoint of relative strength.Please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. This Pure Gold Miners ETF weekly chart (GGGG-NYSE) is important. The rally from the head of the base pattern to the $14 area exceeded the rally to $13.84, from the left shoulder. 
  22. Gold stocks attract momentum-oriented hedge funds, when they trend with higher highs and higher lows, and so the Pure Gold Miners fund is already technically in an uptrend.
  23. Note the bullish blue wedge pattern that formed the right shoulder. If unhedged gold stocks are poised to do best in the coming months, does that mean gold itself is likely to move much higher in price? I think so.
  24. The Western gold community loves junior gold stocks, and the charts of key junior gold stock ETFs suggest that substantial financial rewards for loyal shareholders, are now on the way.

Jun 24, 2014
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form; giving clarity to each point and saving valuable reading time.

Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualifed investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an invetor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:

Are You Prepared?

 
Sizing Up Gold's Rally PDF Print E-mail
Written by Robert Levy - Border Gold   
Monday, 23 June 2014 10:17

coinsGold had its best single day performance since September of 2013 on Thursday of this week. It begs the question, what contributed or led to the 50-dollar rally as it was not triggered by a single piece of economic news, geopolitical action, or policy announcements. One thing that is clear, however, is there has been a shift in investor sentiment and speculators no longer feel as comfortable with their short positions in the futures market. The advances on Thursday, made largely on the back of technical trading confirm this.

Wednesday brought the typical FOMC announcement, to which gold coincidentally has become accustom to not react to. It was perhaps Janet Yellen’s comments during her press conference later on Wednesday that pre-empted the weak dollar trade that in turn was positive for precious metals. Despite the Fed continuing their pace of tapering their monetary stimulus, it was the outlooks for the Fed Funds Rate that were analogous to comments from the IMF earlier last week, that low rates will ensue until at least the beginning of 2017.

The closest piece of contradictory evidence to this is that North American economies, particularly the US and Canada, are beginning to see signs of inflation. Still nowhere near levels that would prompt policy response as of yet, but it’s been the lack of inflation that’s been the concern of both Bank of Canada and the US Fed, thus these drastic upticks have caught their attention. To give context, in the US, core inflation has been 2 per cent or above in 10 of the 65 months since the recession of 2008. A few consecutive months like we’ve seen certainly don’t make a trend; it’s the fact that key components like rising food and energy prices could very well be sustained.

And it is the rise in energy prices, triggered by geopolitical concerns that have been another positive for gold. Tensions around violence in Iraq have investors worldwide keeping a close eye on crude oil prices. As crude prices elevate to higher levels, consumers face higher energy costs and that means less expenditure elsewhere. Gold once again is participating in a fear trade, which history tells us in not usually sustainable for the market on its own, but paired with other factors could be a different story.

The materialization of an increase in the rate of inflation (which investors who questioned the Feds experimental policies have been waiting for since the onslaught of quantitative easing) provides support for metal prices in here. The question becomes will it last, or once again be more transitory in nature.

It’s difficult to try and forecast this rally and the strength and breadth of it. But one thing is for sure, the move in gold this past week was impressive, and if conditions continue to manifest as they were, this rally could be for real.

As per usual, it’s a wait and see game.

 
 
Why Gold & Silver Are Soaring PDF Print E-mail
Written by Ben Kramer-Miller - Wall Steet Cheat Sheet   
Monday, 23 June 2014 04:11

478887481Gold and silver have had phenomenal weeks, with the metals rising nearly 3 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Many columnists are claiming that this is due to escalating tensions in Iraq and the rising possibility that the Iraqi state will enter a state of chaos.

But this really isn’t the case, or it is in the same way that the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand “caused” World War 1: It was the trigger, but in itself it was not the driving force behind the war. So perhaps there are some speculators that bought gold this week because they are concerned that political tensions in Iraq will escalate, but there are deeper factors driving the price that have been driving the price higher for many years now. Only those investors who understand this will have the confidence to buy gold when the market is weak, or when geopolitical tensions in Iraq (or anywhere for that matter) dissipate.

The price of gold has been rising for several fundamental reasons. The first is...continue reading HERE

 
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Mark Leibovit
23 July 2014 ~ Michael Campbell's Commentary Service

We intruded on Mark Leibovit's summer break and asked him for...   Read more...

 
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