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Grandich Interview PDF Print E-mail
Written by Peter Grandich   
Sunday, 29 June 2014 10:25

My interview on Tandem Christian Radio

 
Sorry To Say George Was Right PDF Print E-mail
Written by Peter Grandich   
Sunday, 29 June 2014 08:26

Minus the cursing, George Carlin was basically right.

 
#1 Most Viewed Article: Grandich Q & A with Paul Philip PDF Print E-mail
Written by Peter Grandich for Money Talks   
Saturday, 28 June 2014 08:40
 
 

As I noted in my book, “Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid” (free “second edition” PDF format link – hard copy will be available next 30-45 days), I would meet my financial mentor Frank Congilose about 15 years ago. He would “rock” my world by showing me that traditional financial planning was a badly flawed process and most investors won’t come close to reaching their financial goals even if they were blessed with honest financial advisers.

I would explain in my book how by only putting my toes in the water and not fully committing (until this year) to the only method Frank uses, I prevented myself, my family, friends and followers from receiving the very best path to true wealth management. I went on to note that after several years of searching, how I would be led to a gentleman in Canada who would not only be a practitioner of the process Frank first showed me 15 years ago, but ironically was taught by the very same man who taught Frank. His name is Paul Philip and is the only person I refer Canadians (who reside in Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario) to.

Because of what has happened to me spiritually, I don’t believe in coincidences or “luck”. That makes the fact that Paul and Frank share another common trait – they only recommend to their clients one method when it comes to equity investing, another reason why I feel truly “led” to both gentlemen.

Below is a Q & A with Paul.

Peter- Paul, what are your thoughts on investing in today’s uncertain times.
 
Paul- To me ALL times are uncertain. A good friend once said to me, “if you want to make God laugh, tell him your plans”.  Life just happens, people need a system for investing that they can stick with.
 
Money is personal. It is an emotional thing to make decisions with your life savings. I get it, I am an investor too. That said rarely in life is the answer all the way to the left (all in cash) or all the way to the right (all in stocks). When interest rates are 1% and people are living to 90 and beyond its serious business and the clock is ticking. There is a huge “lost opportunity cost” to not getting this right. We all have just one investment life cycle, if we are paralyzed and are not strategically invested that missed time will never come back. On the other hand, I see way too many people gambling with their life savings. Whether they are DIY investors or working with an order taker (broker), they are taking too much risk, are too concentrated on a few stocks and often loaded up in a specific sector. This approach works for Wall and Bay St (fees and commissions) but hardly ever works out for the gambler (investor).
 
Peter- Paul, how did you come to believe in strategic indexing as a core investment philosophy?
 
Paul- I don’t like losing money. In my personal and professional experience I have not met anyone who can consistently time the market. The data is clear in this area if people choose to pay attention. The vast majority of professional money managers do not beat their benchmarks after fees and expenses over a 10 year period.The investment industry has billions of dollars at stake to sway people to the idea that if they just listen enough, if they just read enough, and are online enough, they can outguess where and when the market is going. If it were just a matter of reading, listening and watching everyone would be wealthy.
 
Peter- Tell me about Dimensional Fund Advisors.
 
Paul- They are the largest asset manager no one has ever heard of. They manage $400B worldwide. They do not advertise. If you are fortunate you find them, they do not look for you. The company was founded in 1981 by academics David Booth and Rex Sinquefield. The board includes Nobel Prize winners Eugene Fama and Myron Scholes. They are a very smart outfit. They offer below average fees and above average results. I found DFA in my personal quest for a better investment experience and results. As a matter of record, I invest my own funds (taxable, holding company, full RRSP, as well as wife’s funds and children’s education funds) in low fee portfolios with DFA. I practice what I preach. Disclosure: I have set aside 10% of my investable assets in a separate account that I trade using my “best judgement” This account has not outperformed my DFA portfolio but I am human and keep trying!
 
Peter- Is DFA for sophisticated investors?
 
Paul- Yes, my definition of a sophisticated investor is anyone who has lost money at least once on an investment and did not enjoy the experience. If this is you, DFA deserves investigation.
 
Peter- What does DFA do?
 
Paul- It’s Evidence based investing, rooted in financial science. In basic terms they do not believe in active management (stock picking/timing).They do believe in capitalism, taking risk where warranted, and where you can be properly compensated for it. Their extensive research has led them to develop global investment strategies that are akin to “custom” indexes. They have built out models that focus on the dimensions of higher expected returns. They do not mirror ETF index portfolios (Ishares/Vanguard) and as a result have an impressive track record of outperformance over these passive indexes.
 
Peter- How do investors access DFA?
 
Paul- They are available through well informed and vetted advisors, approximately 1900 in the U.S and 160 in Canada. 
 
Peter- What else should investors know?
 
Paul- Building and protecting wealth is a holistic endeavour. A strategic and well thought out investment program is just one piece of the financial puzzle. I call this accumulation. Just as important is distribution. Most investors will greatly benefit from working with an advisor who understands this and can show them how to safely climb the mountain (accumulation) and safely get down the other side (distribution). It takes a combination of well integrated strategies to achieve your maximum financial potential. 
 
Peter- Do you have an investment minimum?
 
Paul-Yes, due to our low fee nature we have a minimum account of $250k. I work with clients in BC, AB, and ON.
 
Peter- Where can people reach you to find out more?
 
Paul- www.fwb-inc.com or  This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Attention American Readers – Through my associates at C & A Associates, Dimensional Funds are available. Email me at  This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it  for further details.

 
#2 Most Viewed Article: 90 Yr Old Russell: Gold Distrusted - Even Hated By General Public - Expects a Melt-Up PDF Print E-mail
Written by Hard Assets Investor   
Saturday, 28 June 2014 08:31

Gold was being accumulated prior to recent upward thrust, thus recent move was genuine Richard Russell argues below. Also Richard's biggest worry is the US Dollar, and he looks at its technical condition. This piece was done on June 20th, just after the big thrust up to a close over $1320 - Editor Money Talks

“Below I show gold along with its On-Balance-Volume at the top of the chart. Note that OBV tuned up before the big up-thrust last week. This tells me that the huge move in gold was not just a violent one-day short-covering panic, but gold was being accumulated prior to the up-thrust.

rr1

Following the big upward surge in the precious metals, I wanted to see whether it was a one-day short covering panic or whether we were seeing a continuation of the gold bull market. The daily chart below shows the action prior to the big surge which took gold above both of its moving averages.

rr2

Below we see HUI, the NYSE “gold bugs index.” Note that the pattern we see here is that of a huge head-and-shoulders bottom. The P&F target is 316. This formation has been building for many months, and thus when the latest surge arrived, the surge can hardly be seen as a sudden one-day short covering panic. If HUI can hit the 264 box, I expect an upward explosion.

rr3

The precious metals are still distrusted and even hated by the general public. Before this bull market is over, I expect to see a mad rush and melt-up as the pros and the public scramble headlong into gold and silver.

....also from Richard

The price of protein (meats, fish, beans, bacon and nine other proteins) is heading higher. Protein prices jumped 28% in the last five years. Protein prices jumped five percent in 2014. This according to Bloomberg.

Throughout the year 2014, I have advised my subscribers to do as I have done, and that is to load up with physical silver and gold. Gold is way up this year; better than many hedge funds have done. And sitting with physical silver and gold has been a lot easier on the nerves than sitting with a portfolio of assorted stocks. What will I do from here? I'll sit with my silver and gold -- along with my lone preferred stock -- Tri Continental Preferred.

My biggest worry for the United States is our dollar. The dollar is part of almost every nation's reserves. And as you can imagine, nations that hold dollars are on edge. They see the Fed pumping out trillions of new dollars, and they know that the more dollars -- the weaker the dollar.

I'm not going to talk about the sanity of the Fed's dollar creation, I'm just going to look at the technical condition of the dollar. The P&F chart below depicts the dollar. The dollar just hit the 79 box which set off a bear signal with a target of 73. Thus, the action of the dollar will be critical in the weeks ahead. As the dollar declines, it will put upside pressure on all commodities, and this, in turn, will put pressure on the middle class, which, from what I understand, needs food in order to survive.

rr4

Late Notes -- The precious metals continue inching higher with gold closing up 3 to 1321 and silver up 13 cents to 21.04. Just to make things difficult, the gold miners backed off with GDXJ closing down 1.99 to 40.00. After looking over the charts, I continue to think that gold has made its lows and from here on it will take patience as the universe of precious metals slowly and subtly creeps higher. 

Gold has had a habit of declining every Friday, so this coming Friday's action should provide a hint as to which way gold is going. In the meantime, China continues to be the world's leading accumulator of gold in its long term strategy of preempting the dollar. From what I gather, China has now passed India as the worlds biggest accumulator of gold. China is famous for its patience and its long term strategies. I hope my subscribers enlist a bit of Chinese patience as they continue to accumulate silver and gold."

 
#3 Most Viewed Article: It's Time To Buy These Two Stocks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Tyler Bollhorn - Stockscores.com   
Saturday, 28 June 2014 08:23

The 2 Stocks with potential are below as is Tyler's training:- Editor Money Talks

Seven Ways to Take the Emotion Out of Trading

The Trader's Edge
There is life in the TSX Venture Exchange. After sliding since mid March, the exchange dominated by junior commodity stocks found buyers this week, breaking the three month downward trend. There is a good chance that this will begin a resumption of the recovery that started in January.

tylertoday

The Junior Gold Mining sector had another strong week but I expect short term profit taking before a possible resumption of the upward trend. This week's rally takes the sector up to a long term downward trend line where sellers inevitably congregate to take profits. Expect a stall in the trend but be watchful for an eventual break of that downward trend line as a signal of strength.

GDXJ Weekly June 20

STRATEGY OF THE WEEK

Each day, I use the Stockscores Market Scan tool to look for stocks trading abnormally. The Market Scan has filters that seek out statistically significant abnormal price and volume action, two important signals that investors are anticipating improving fundamentals, or at least an improving perception of fundamentals.

Here are two stocks that showed abnormal action recently and also chart patterns that make them stocks worth considering:

STOCKS THAT MEET THAT FEATURED STRATEGY

1. T.ORE
T.ORE has been trending sideways for about a year but came alive this week, breaking out through $0.75 resistance. The stock may finally be starting its recovery process after a lengthy basing period. Support at $0.65.

tyxx

2. DRRX
DRRX recently had its Sentiment Stockscore cross above the important 60 mark, taking the stock in to optimistic territory. Abnormal price and volume action on Friday indicate investors are excited about something, giving the stock a good chance of filling in the price gap up to $2. Support at $1.44.

tylertoday2

 

Stockscores Trader Training - Seven Ways to Take the Emotion Out of Trading
I think that many traders have a hard time believing that they can make money by buying a stock and waiting. Most of us are not taught to make our money work for us but instead that we must work for our money. Go to a job, put in the time and you get a pay check. Work hard, your pay checks will grow. But the thought that you can make money by putting your feet up is a difficult thing for most to grasp.

With that mental programming, most of us have difficulty holding on to our strong stocks and letting the profits grow. If we buy a stock at $1 and it goes up to $1.20 in a couple of days we are likely to sell. In some ways we think of this fast return as good luck, not much different than buying a winning lottery ticket. We have a fear that someone is going to figure out that we have benefited from a mistake and so we better get out now before we get discovered.

This thinking is strengthened when we own a marginal stock and it goes down as quickly as it went up. If we take a marginal trade we should expect marginal results but somehow we only remember the negative feeling of watching a paper profit turn in to a loss. We tell ourselves that next time we will sell at the first sign of weakness and crystallize the gain. Avoiding pain is human nature.

Our next trade is of higher quality but we sell it on a short term weakness and lock in a quick but relatively small profit. While lost in self congratulations we realize that someone named Murphy is writing the laws of trading and we watch the stock march ever higher with us eating the stock's dust. We have jumped off of a high speed bus that is headed for Profit City.

So what is behind this destructive behavior? It is that deep routed emotional response to danger that keeps us out of trouble but also makes us avoid a greater feeling of fulfillment.

Fear is what makes us sell our winners too early and hold our losers too long.

The best traders are not afraid of holding on to strong stocks, they are afraid of holding on to losing stocks. What do you do?

If you are a normal human being, you do the opposite. Think about the last loser that you owned. As the stock fell lower and lower, what was it that you told yourself over and over?

"It will bounce back eventually, I will just be patient."

What your subconscious mind was really saying was, "It is much too painful to sell this loser and see that loss of my hard earned capital. I will hold on with the hope that it goes back to what I paid for it and then I will sell." And of course, it continued lower because there was something wrong with the company and it deserved to go lower.

So what can be done to fight our destructive minds? How can we program ourselves to hold on to our winners and dump the losers? How can we trade without fear?

Here are my Seven Ways to Take Emotion Out of Trading

Trade Quality
Our fears are confirmed when we enter marginal trades. If you only trade the best opportunities you will trade less but you will have greater success. This will put you on the road to fearless trading and help you to simplify the trading approach. Write down your rules and do nothing if every rule is not satisfied. When you consider a stock, look for a reason to avoid the trade. If you can't find one then you have a trade worth taking.

Buy With Confidence
The rules that you trade with have to have a foundation of success. You have to believe in your rules or you won't believe in holding the stock through the shakeout periods in the longer term up trend. Analyze and test the strategy until you have proven to yourself that it works. Then trade it slowly without a lot of risk so you can gain a greater level of confidence that it works.

Don't Watch the Scoreboard
Sports fans don't spend a lot of time watching the scoreboard during a game, it only matters when the game is over. In trading, the scoreboard is the profit and loss figure for your account. If you focus on the scoreboard it is likely that you will lose sight of what is happening in the game. As a technical trader, all that matters to me is what the chart is telling me.

Plan Your Losses
Before you enter a trade, figure out what needs to happen for you to consider the trade a loser. For me, that is a move through chart support; I plan to exit the trade when the stock goes through a psychological floor price on the chart. Understanding where that point requires some experience and knowledge but once you know how to identify support on the chart, plan your losses.

Plan the Trade
I find it helpful to predict pull backs. My rational side knows that stocks cannot go straight up and that they must suffer pullbacks to recharge buyer interest and shake out weak holders. My emotional side feels fear when those pull backs happen. If I plan my trade and build in expectations for the counter trend pull backs I can deal with them better and have a greater chance of not succumbing to the fear when they do.

Don't Fall in Love
I don't want to know too much about what a company is doing because I have found that the more I like a stock the more likely I am to not listen to the message of the market. There is a lot of bias in the information that we receive about companies and what they are doing. The ultimate arbiter of truth is the market itself; we should have a greater faith in the opinions of thousands of market participants than a few biased sources of information.

Tolerate Risk
Without risk, there is no potential for return. To avoid trading with fear we have to be comfortable with the risk. If not, we will let fear guide our decisions and those decisions will probably be wrong. Therefore, do not take more risk on a trade than you are comfortable losing. Plan your losses based on how much you are willing to lose and let that determine the size of your positions.

The Profit is in the Patience
When a trade is working, let it work for you. A business owner does not fire her best employee. A hockey coach does not send his best player to the minor leagues. A company does not stop making their best products. Hang on to your best stocks with the same attitude. Hold the stock until there is a rational reason to exit the trade rather than selling because it feels good. If you are taking quality trades and trading without fear, you will feel better over the long run.

The time to get started on your reprogramming is now. Don't expect to break habits built up over a life time in a couple of days. The battle against your fears is one that takes time win but with determination you can do it.

References

 

Stockscores Market Minutes Video
A look at Gold with a focus on how the chart time frame will change the outlook for a trade. Plus, Tyler's regular weekly market analysis, watch the video at

http://youtu.be/NoktguCylLU


Live Webinar Tuesday June 24 6:30PT, 9:30ET
An Introduction to Active Trading - This free webinar will highlight the tools and processes used to actively trade the stock market using the Stockscores strategies. If you have ever thought about making trading a full or part time occupation, this webinar should not be missed. Stockscores founder Tyler Bollhorn will show what he does each trading day to find and execute his trades. Register at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6772855646720316162

or use the link on the Stockscores.com home page.

 

Disclaimer
This is not an investment advisory, and should not be used to make investment decisions. Information in Stockscores Perspectives is often opinionated and should be considered for information purposes only. No stock exchange anywhere has approved or disapproved of the information contained herein. There is no express or implied solicitation to buy or sell securities. The writers and editors of Perspectives may have positions in the stocks discussed above and may trade in the stocks mentioned. Don't consider buying or selling any stock without conducting your own due diligence.

 

 

 

 

 
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Mark Leibovit
23 July 2014 ~ Michael Campbell's Commentary Service

We intruded on Mark Leibovit's summer break and asked him for...   Read more...

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