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Victor Adair: Remaining Short Stocks

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on Monday, 26 March 2018 06:06

Live From the Trading Desk: Victor had a big week capturing the huge move down in the US Stock Market & profitably closing out a short Canadian Dollar position. He remains short the Stock Market, sees something going on in the Crude Oil market, & explains how he intends to manage risk - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Transcript:

I started this week with short positions in CAD, Gold and the S+P. I took profits on the short CAD when it started to rally late Tuesday on news that the US was “softening” its NAFTA position on auto parts. I liquidated my gold position for a small loss on Wednesday when spot gold traded above $1325 and I remain short the S+P with a combination of option positions.

The Canadian Dollar tumbled >6.5% from the end of January to Monday’s lows. It had closed lower for 5 out of 7 weeks and hit a 9 month low. It just about registered a Weekly Key Reversal Up this week. I liquidated my short position on the NAFTA/auto news because the market had been very focused on Canada’s vulnerably to Trump’s protectionist bombast and any “let up” could trigger a rally in an oversold market. I was also puzzled by the bid in the crude oil market the last 2 weeks (in the face of stock market weakness) and I thought CAD could benefit from rising crude. The USD feels “heavy” ( the Yen is at its highest levels since Trump’s election) despite the HUGE American interest rate premium over other currencies and if the USD falls from here that would give CAD a lift.  I maintain a bearish view on CAD...I’m just not short at the moment.

11vic

 

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Why It's The Right Time To Buy

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on Sunday, 25 March 2018 08:17

02:06 - 18:06: Featured Guest James Thorne explains current market risk, the current decline and where and when to take advantage of the next opportunities lasting for the next 3-4 years. 

 

....also from Michael: A Hall of Fame Bad idea

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Mike's Content

A Hall of Fame Bad idea

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on Saturday, 24 March 2018 13:13

Michael's Editorial: People pushing to lower the voting age to 16 likely don't let their own children make their financial decisions. It's even worse when you think....

 

...related from Michael: The Biggest Challenge to Our Standard of Living

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10 Reasons To Be Happy About The Future

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on Thursday, 22 March 2018 06:36

"Despite what we hear on the news and from many authorities, the story of our era is that we're witnessing the greatest improvement in Global living standards ever to take place". There are 3 key reasons why so much progress has been made:

 

....related from Michael: Have We Seen The Peak in The Anti-Success Anti-Business Movement?

Happiness dl

 



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Canadian Investors Take Note!

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on Monday, 19 March 2018 06:36

Victor hits another home run shorting the Canadian Dollar a double going long the US Dollar by being short Gold and a solid base hit shorting the US Stock Market. Victors comments on the Canadian Dollar are valuable for any Canadian Investor - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Victors Transcript:

I started this week with a clean slate (I was skiing at Whistler last week and didn’t want any open positions) but I had a list of trades that I hoped to make if the opportunity presented itself.

Top of my list was to get short CAD and I did that Monday when CAD rolled over after last week’s little bounce. Dovish comments from Poloz on Tuesday re-focused the market on interest rate spreads (current and expected) between Canada and the USA (2 year spread now over 50bps) and that pushed CAD lower. Broad USD strength later in the week and Trump’s NAFTA comments increased the pressure and CAD ended the week at 9 month lows against the USD...down 5 of the last 7 weeks.

CAD is weak against a broad range of currencies...not just the USD. YTD it is down ~4% against USD,~6% against EUR, ~7% against GBP, ~3% against AUD, ~ 8% against MXN, and ~10% against JPY. This “across the board” CAD weakness points the finger at Canada-specific problems (self-inflicted poor fiscal policies, lack of competitiveness, domestic debt levels, etc.) The falling CAD is acting as a “release valve” or “shock absorber” for the Canadian economy...which is what should happen with a floating exchange rate. I think CAD may have much further to fall.

1vic

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Next on my list was to get long the USD and I did that by shorting Gold on Thursday. (Gold and EUR have been moving up and down against the USD in virtual lockstep so shorting gold was more or less the same thing as shorting EUR.) This is an “anticipation” trade...I anticipate that if gold falls a few more dollars it could trigger a wave of selling that would take prices much lower. On the weekly chart gold had its lowest close since December.



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Mike's Content

A Strategy for Investment Success & Safety

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on Sunday, 18 March 2018 07:59

02:06 -18:11 Featured Guest John Johnston of Davis Rea joins Michael. When it comes to tracking the Canadian dollar there is nobody better - John analyzes developments in global financial markets and covers all the potential fundamental shifts in the currency markets including trade tarriffs, employment patterns and Federal Reserve interest rate policy and winds up with a strategy to prosper in the current and future environment.

....also Michael's Editorial: Trouble Coming Squared

 

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