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Buckle Up For a Major Sea Change

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on Monday, 22 January 2018 07:30

Victor points out that money is starting to move into the sold out Commodity sector which relative to stocks is down 75% in the last 7 years to an 18 year low. He also see the US Dollar oversold and due for a bounce. Transcript below:

COMM-equities-vs-commodities-01112018

The key aspect of market psychology so far this year has been a willingness to aggressively take on risk. We have seen aggressive buying of stocks and aggressive selling of bonds and the US Dollar.



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Mike's Content

Core Themes & Dangers Moving Into 2018

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on Monday, 08 January 2018 06:24

In Live from the trading desk, Michael Campbell gets Victor Adair's core expectation for 2018. Also Victor delinates areas where danger lies.

...also from Michael: They Chose Rape, Beheadings and Murder

FX-Volatility

 



Mike's Content

See If You Think These Are Worth It

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on Monday, 25 December 2017 04:27

  • MC horz cropped - 2013Mark Liebovit’s top recommendation at last year's World Outlook Financial Conference was Bitcoin Trust @$110 – traded last friday today @ $1,990 - 17.9 times
  • Jim Dines recommended Canopy Growth @ $13 – traded last friday @ $23.12  
  • James Thorne shockingly recommended Bombardier @ $2.00 – traded last friday@$3.03 – up 51%
  • Ryan Irvine recommended International Road Dynamics @ $2.50 – taken over 3 months later at $4.25 – up 70%

Those are great results but that’s the whole point of inviting some of the top analysts in the English speaking world to the World Outlook Financial Conference for the past 29 years. Obviously past performance is not a guarantee of future success but the results we have achieved over the years have not been by accident. Our analysts have been chosen precisely because they have strong track records.
 
No, they are not right every time, but their uncanny ability to read the various investment markets while employing proven risk management techniques has clearly raised their probability of success dramatically. Whether you’re interested in stocks, gold, oil, real estate, interest rates or currencies - we bring in the top analysts to the World Outlook Financial Conference to cover them all.
 
It’s an incredible line-up for Feb 2nd & 3rd, 2018. Martin Armstrong has been called the highest paid financial advisor on the planet. Heck, I’ve called him the top economic forecaster in the world. Let me give you just a couple of examples.  At the Outlook in 2013 he correctly predicted the date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying massive outflow of capital that would push the US dollar and stocks higher.  More importantly he clearly predicted the rise of the Dow Jones Index through 18,000 and told the audience to buy every dip because the next stop was 23,700. We came within a quarter of a percent of his target this month so I can’t wait to hear what he has to say now.    
 
Mark Leibovit will also be at the 2018 Outlook. Mark has been Timer’s Digest Timer of the Year, Gold Market Timer of the Year and Long Term Timer of the year. While he’s been great in all those areas – my favourite of his forecasts came at the 2014 Conference where he told us to start to invest in marijuana stocks starting with GW Pharmaceuticals at $67.  Mark has repeated his recommendation of the marijuana industry every year. I think it’s safe to say that was a good call but I’ll be interested in what he has to say this year as the industry and the stocks become more mainstream.
 
I won’t go through all the 2018 speakers right now (they’re available HERE) but let me give you just one more example of the quality of analyst featured at the World Outlook Conference. Keystone Financial’s Ryan Irvine has been producing a World Outlook Small Cap Portfolio for the past 8 years – and as I said past performance is no guarantee of future success but I like my chances. The Small Cap Portfolio has returned double digits every single year – no exceptions.
 
Obviously I want to hear Ryan’s picks at this year’s conference. I’m worried it will cost me too much money if I don’t!
 
What Will Happen in 2018



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Mike's Content

You Don't Know What You're Missing

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on Sunday, 24 December 2017 11:14

 

7 years after London - 3 years after Toronto  – 5 years after London – 2 after Edmonton - Vancouver still doesn't have ride sharing. Why? because the NDP and Vision Vancouver need to protect consumers from paying less for transportation – save us from using our cars less and not having to pay  $20 bucks to park downtown.  

...also from Michael: BC Message to Investors "Don't Invest In BC"

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Mike's Content

Something Big is Happening - no, make that Something “Historical” Is Happening

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on Thursday, 21 December 2017 07:38

world-outlook-visualLast year we told you the 5000 year bottom in interest rates was in.

And that meant the 35 year bull market in bonds was over.

Bitcoin Trust was a top recommendation at last year’s World Outlook Financial Conference. Why? Because confidence in government and paper currencies is falling

Since March, 2009 we’ve predicted massive new highs in the Dow Jones. Guess what? It’s not over. Most don’t know why.

The pension crisis has just started and will become obvious in 2018.

Hi ,

I’m sure you’re busy. I certainly am given all that's happening in the economy and markets but what’s going on is so incredible that it merits my time in bringing it to your attention.  From Volvo’s contract to deliver 24,000 self driving cars to Uber in 12 months – to the mindblowing rise in Bitcoin. And then there’s the 50 year low in US oil imports while production hits record highs.  (Message to the Middle East – the US doesn’t need you anymore.)   

Last year Donald Trump’s victory was just one more sign of the kind of historical changes we’ve predicted at the World Outlook Financial Conference and on Moneytalks since 2009. Everything’s on schedule – lots of money is to be made and lost.

What’s Coming



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Mike's Content

Live From The Trading Desk: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

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on Tuesday, 07 November 2017 09:02

Last weekend it was easy to imagine that markets would be volatile this week: President Trump was set to nominate a new Fed Chairman, tax reform plans were to be unveiled, the Fed and the BOE were meeting, the post-hurricane employment reports were due, stock markets had raced to new All Time Highs...what could possibly go wrong?

Not much, apparently, as implied volatility fell back this week to near All Time Lows across asset classes...currency markets muddled mostly sideways with the US Dollar Index inching to its strongest weekly close since July...bond yields fell as the market reversed from pricing in a possibly tighter Fed...and stocks ambled to new All Time Highs!

Fed Chair: The President nominated Powell to replace Yellen when her term expires in February and the Senate is expected to approve his nomination. He provides continuity with recent Fed policies (better the devil you know...) but also showcases that Trump remains intent on “shaking things up.”

Tax Reform: There was very little reaction to the tax reform details across major stock indices, currencies and interest rates. There was, of course, a tsunami of politically motivated commentary about how bad or how good the proposals were, and whether or not the proposals will ever become law.

The Fed meeting: wasn’t expected to provide any fireworks, and didn’t. They see “solid” US economic growth and markets are now pricing a 90% chance that the Fed will raise short term interest rates by ¼ in December...and with financial conditions the “easiest” in over 2 decades the Fed may be tightening more in 2018 than the market is currently pricing...which would be USD bullish.

The employment report: was expected to show a big, possibly huge, post-hurricane employment rebound...but the net market effect of the report was subdued. Jobless claims fell to a 44 year low.

Consumer confidence: reports this week showed that American consumer confidence is at a 15 year high due to gains in the stock market, housing prices and wages(?) Consumers are now 70% of US GDP so their high confidence level may have a positive feedback effect on the stock market and housing prices...although I have to wonder if this isn’t a classic “end of cycle” picture especially with consumers running down their savings and going deeper into debt so that they can keep buying things! Another cautionary sign is that the growth rate for national wages is about half the growth rate for national housing prices.

The Canadian Dollar: One of the primary drivers of CAD-USD since May has been the 2 year interest rate spread. At the May CAD lows the spread was 65 points in favor of the USD, at the Sept 8 Key Turn Date the spread was 25 points in favor of CAD. Since early September the spread has gradually gone in favor of the USD and for the past week or so has hovered around 20 points premium USD. The 180 degree pivot by the Bank of Canada in early June, and the subsequent “backing away” by the BOC in September obviously influenced the interest rate spread and thus the FX rate. BOC Governor Poloz spoke before Parliament this week and maintained a “worried” tone. The correlation between CAD and WTI, which has been important for much of the past couple of years has been practically non-existent the past few months.

cnov4

WTI: following the OPEC production cutback agreements in November 2016 and the OPEC/Non-OPEC agreements in December 2016, front month WTI topped out around $55 in January and February 2017 (I wrote that the crude oil bullish news had reached “As Good As it Gets” back then) and WTI began a stair-step decline to $42 in June. Since that June low market sentiment swung to believing that the cutback agreements have indeed reduced global supply below global demand, thus shrinking the inventory overhang, and prices have risen...with WTI closing above $55 this week for the first time in over 2 years. Rumors that the agreements will be extended when OPEC meets on November 30 have helped fuel the rally. It’s interesting that crude oil has rallied over 15% since early September even as the USD has risen against nearly all currencies. Crude oil, in other words, is rallying in terms of all currencies...a hallmark of a strong bull market.



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