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Mike's Content

It Was Never Supposed to End Up Like This

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on Thursday, 08 March 2018 07:34

"No Go Zones" in Germany and Sweden, where the government's authority is no longer in effect, are on the rise. Finally German President Angela Merkel has noticed.

....also: The Biggest Challenge to Our Standard of Living

merkel

 



Mike's Content

The Dangers of Gov't Cooling Real Estate

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on Wednesday, 07 March 2018 07:28

 

The BC Government wants to trash the most important industry in the province in the name of affordability. An industry that has a huge workforce. Michael has the numbers and makes the case that Gov't should leave real estate alone. 

....also related from Michael: Your Moral & Intellectual Superiors

joe-ayres-vancouver-housing-rally-sunday-feb-18-2018

 

 



Mike's Content

An Ominous Prediction

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on Tuesday, 06 March 2018 07:57

Governments are desperate for money to fund their promises. They are going to go where the money is & Michael forecasts where the money is that Government is going to go after. If you are a homeowner, you might best listen to what Mike thinks is coming right at you:

 

....related from Michael: Here Comes Job Losses

fish1

 



Mike's Content

Victor's Big Hits on Stocks, Currencies, Oil & Gold

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on Monday, 05 March 2018 07:24

Victor Adair has had a superb month in Stocks, Currencies, Crude Oil and Gold. Here is his interview with Michael followed by Victors trading notes for this week and next - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

The US stock market was a great barometer of risk appetite this week. The DJIA rallied to 3 week highs on Monday but began falling early Tuesday morning (Powell testimony) and was down nearly 1,600 points at Friday’s lows. The prospect of “trade wars” following Trump’s proposed steel and aluminum tariffs contributed to a high volume acceleration of the decline on Thursday. The major American stock indices all registered a Weekly Key Reversal Down.

For the past couple of months  my Trading Desk Notes have maintained that risk appetite was “dangerously high” and was due for (at least) a correction. I wrote that: Markets are in a blow-off phase...My gut instinct is to fade this price action...but my risk management override says wait...it could get even crazier! The key aspect of market psychology so far this year has been a willingness to aggressively take on risk. I quoted Bob Farrell, “The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.”

I’ve had 2 key reasons why I thought there could be a significant reversal in risk appetite:

  1. Looking at the charts I believed that the stock market “melt up” in January was likely the last leg of a parabolic blow off. The DJIA had quadrupled from the 2009 lows, had rallied 45% since the Trump election, and now the public was “beating down the doors” to buy anything and everything.
  2. The global central banks, which had “underwritten” the 9 year rally in asset prices, were in the process of “changing their ways.”

My short term trading: February was a good month for me as I caught parts of the “correction” in the stock, currency and commodity markets. I started this week short CAD and Euro, and bond puts, and added short gold and short S+P. I closed all of those positions with profits except for the bond puts which I closed for a small loss. I’m flat at the end of the week, but in my managed futures account that Drew manages we remain short CAD and WTI.

The US Dollar rallied to 6 week highs this week but then reversed sharply on Thursday  on “trade war” fears.

The Canadian Dollar broke its relationship with the Euro on Thursday...that is CAD kept falling against the USD while the Euro rallied. I think this points to REAL weakness in CAD...which is now threatening to break below the 7750 lows made last fall. The “trade wars” story has real impact on Canada as it pertains to the Nafta renegotiations. The 2 year interest rate spread is ~45 bp in favor of the US and markets may be anticipating “dovish” comments from the BOC at next week’s meeting. Markets are still pricing a 36% chance that the BOC will raise rates in April...I have my doubts!

Click for Larger Chart

cadva

The Yen has been rising steadily since early January and ended this week at its best levels against the USD since Trump’s election. It’s often called a “safe haven” currency but it was rising in January even as the US stock market was soaring...so there’s something else in play...any unwinding of the massive short Yen positioning in the futures markets could accelerate the rally.

WTI has had a very similar chart pattern to the S+P so far this year...rising through January...falling the first 2 weeks of February only to bounce back the next 2 weeks. This week it rallied on Monday along with the stock market and then fell sharply with the stock market Tuesday through Friday.

Click for Larger Chart



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Mike's Content

They Pay no price for being wrong...dead wrong

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on Wednesday, 28 February 2018 08:06

 

Job losses, pension underfunding, billions in energy revenues lost...no worries. Our political class pays no price for being wrong but the rest of us do
 
....quote of the week from Michael: Stephen Colbert: All That's Wrong With Public Debate
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Mike's Content

Revenue Canada To Get Tougher & Stronger

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on Tuesday, 27 February 2018 08:20

With Governments desperate for money we can all expect there will be changes in tax collection practices. Even worse, in an An Ominous Prediction Michael made this morning they are coming after all homeowners. Because that's where the money is. More below: - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

 

00:35 - 05:14 - Mike's Editorial - "You're innocent until proven guilty' before the law EXCEPT when it comes to tax collection. There, Revenue Canada says its up to you to prove your innocence. Now the Federal Government is about to hand more power to the already mightly Revenue Canada to enhance their ability to declare more Canadian busiinesses "guilty". 

....also from Michael: The Problem With Protesting Pipelines & Oil

justin shirtless

 



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On Monday from the morning high to the afternoon low the DJIA dropped over 900 points, then bounced over 300 points to “only” close down...

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