Login

Mike's Content

Live From The Trading Desk: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

on Tuesday, 07 November 2017 09:02

Last weekend it was easy to imagine that markets would be volatile this week: President Trump was set to nominate a new Fed Chairman, tax reform plans were to be unveiled, the Fed and the BOE were meeting, the post-hurricane employment reports were due, stock markets had raced to new All Time Highs...what could possibly go wrong?

Not much, apparently, as implied volatility fell back this week to near All Time Lows across asset classes...currency markets muddled mostly sideways with the US Dollar Index inching to its strongest weekly close since July...bond yields fell as the market reversed from pricing in a possibly tighter Fed...and stocks ambled to new All Time Highs!

Fed Chair: The President nominated Powell to replace Yellen when her term expires in February and the Senate is expected to approve his nomination. He provides continuity with recent Fed policies (better the devil you know...) but also showcases that Trump remains intent on “shaking things up.”

Tax Reform: There was very little reaction to the tax reform details across major stock indices, currencies and interest rates. There was, of course, a tsunami of politically motivated commentary about how bad or how good the proposals were, and whether or not the proposals will ever become law.

The Fed meeting: wasn’t expected to provide any fireworks, and didn’t. They see “solid” US economic growth and markets are now pricing a 90% chance that the Fed will raise short term interest rates by ¼ in December...and with financial conditions the “easiest” in over 2 decades the Fed may be tightening more in 2018 than the market is currently pricing...which would be USD bullish.

The employment report: was expected to show a big, possibly huge, post-hurricane employment rebound...but the net market effect of the report was subdued. Jobless claims fell to a 44 year low.

Consumer confidence: reports this week showed that American consumer confidence is at a 15 year high due to gains in the stock market, housing prices and wages(?) Consumers are now 70% of US GDP so their high confidence level may have a positive feedback effect on the stock market and housing prices...although I have to wonder if this isn’t a classic “end of cycle” picture especially with consumers running down their savings and going deeper into debt so that they can keep buying things! Another cautionary sign is that the growth rate for national wages is about half the growth rate for national housing prices.

The Canadian Dollar: One of the primary drivers of CAD-USD since May has been the 2 year interest rate spread. At the May CAD lows the spread was 65 points in favor of the USD, at the Sept 8 Key Turn Date the spread was 25 points in favor of CAD. Since early September the spread has gradually gone in favor of the USD and for the past week or so has hovered around 20 points premium USD. The 180 degree pivot by the Bank of Canada in early June, and the subsequent “backing away” by the BOC in September obviously influenced the interest rate spread and thus the FX rate. BOC Governor Poloz spoke before Parliament this week and maintained a “worried” tone. The correlation between CAD and WTI, which has been important for much of the past couple of years has been practically non-existent the past few months.

cnov4

WTI: following the OPEC production cutback agreements in November 2016 and the OPEC/Non-OPEC agreements in December 2016, front month WTI topped out around $55 in January and February 2017 (I wrote that the crude oil bullish news had reached “As Good As it Gets” back then) and WTI began a stair-step decline to $42 in June. Since that June low market sentiment swung to believing that the cutback agreements have indeed reduced global supply below global demand, thus shrinking the inventory overhang, and prices have risen...with WTI closing above $55 this week for the first time in over 2 years. Rumors that the agreements will be extended when OPEC meets on November 30 have helped fuel the rally. It’s interesting that crude oil has rallied over 15% since early September even as the USD has risen against nearly all currencies. Crude oil, in other words, is rallying in terms of all currencies...a hallmark of a strong bull market.



Read more...

Mike's Content

Great Interview with the Legend, Jim Dines

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

on Sunday, 17 September 2017 08:01

 

1.10 - 19:03 - Jim Dines, author of The Dines Letter has been ranked #1 several times by Timers Digest. He joins Mike to discuss the best growth areas in the market along with why the boom in marijuana stocks is just beginning. Plus his latest on gold and silver. 

....also Michael's Editorial: BC and Alberta Have Upped The Cost of Cutting Emissions

Growth Stock Increase Gain Improve

 

 



Mike's Content

Posted Without Comment

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

on Thursday, 10 August 2017 10:19

Originally posted by Sam Bowman

Screen Shot 2017-08-10 at 9.23.38 AM



Mike's Content

On The Brink of Significant Strength

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

on Sunday, 30 July 2017 08:30

 

Featured guest Eric Coffin @ 02:05 - 19:14 - Eric notes that there is usually a couple of periods a year when precious metals are positive and as you can see on the chart below we are just beginning the stronger of the two that will run into this fall. Eric also notes that the committments of Traders (COT) was as bullish two weeks ago as it was in late 2015 just prior to the $329 rise in Gold thru the first half of 2016 (see 2nd chart below). Eric explains why he recommends two specific stocks,  San Marco Resources Inc. (SMN.V) and Vendetta Mining Corp. (VTT.V) 

image thumb

sc

 

 

 



Mike's Content

Get Ready - An Earth Shattering Sea Change is Coming

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

on Friday, 30 June 2017 20:18

 

01:16 - 16:42 - Star analyst, Jack Crooks warns that you better be on the look out for a massive change in the investment environment that will impact every one of us. 

00:38 - 01:15 This Quote of the Week from the great Humorist P.J. O'Rourke, an American political satirist and journalist on dividing the economic "pizza" pie.

19:51 -22.25 This Week's Shocking Stat brings you a number so big it will make your head spin. A number that is so vitally important it will effect everyone's economic health.

25:10 - 32:15 Hot Properties - Ozzie Jurock lets Michael know about one of the indicators he uses to find good real estate values. An indicator that reveals a very attractive city with "Glorious" real estate values. Also areas to buy where people live the longest and of course Ozzie's Hot Properties. 

32:56 - 36:24 Live From the Trading Desk - Victor continues to warn that Central Banks are back and having a big impact on markets. The key thing is the dvergence between the Central Banks positioning to raise rates and the Markets not believing it will happen. The big risk is if the markets are wrong, the Central Banks do raise rates.... the whole market complex changes dramatically.

36:33 - 38:13 This Week's Goofy Award Winner is the person who chose the headline act at the $500 million Parliament Hill extravaganza. Perhaps its just very Canadian eh?

Click Here to Listen to Mike's Unique Solution To Ending All The Confrontation and Discord and the first full half hour of Moneytalks Canada Day Weekend Show. 

how-to-overcome-massive-change-lessons-from-synchrony-financial-990x396

Unknown

 



Mike's Content

Money Talks Complete Show June 3rd 2017

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

on Saturday, 03 June 2017 20:44

0:00 - 5:01: Michael Campbell's Editorial:  Protecting listeners from the fallout from the most dramatic historical change in generations that Michael sees coming. As JP Morgan said " You can ignore economics and finance, the scary part is they won't ignore you".  

5:35 - 12:22 - Michael Levy on the Top 3 Stories Smart People Are Talking About. One shocker, how low the Royal Bank sees the CDN Dollar dropping dramtically against the US Dollar by the end of the year!

13:14 - 17:45 - In this Week's Big Fat Idea has a special interview with Eamon Percy and his book: The book is The 1% Solution – How Small Daily Improvement Produce Massive Long Term Results.

0:00 - 18:03 - Michael's featured Guest: Joseph Schachter, Money Talks oil and gas expert who has been so accurate on the major Oil swings in the last 2 years. Michael's asks Joseph how to time the energy market and the critical question of when we can expect the next bottom in Oil. Also which clues will tell us the trend has turned - and most important, which companies to consider adding to your portfolio at the turn. A must-listen too interview given the state of the oil market right now. 

19:44 - 21:13 - Michael's Shocking Stat: Whoa, taxpayers are going to foot the bill for this Government spending mystery! No explanation why a 26 Billion dollar expenditure exploded to 65 Billion since 2008!!

23:58 - 30:27 - Hot Properties: Ozzie on the change in Government in BC and what it might mean for real estate, not just in BC but also in Alberta. 

30:54 - 34:02 - Live From The Trading Desk: Victor's opinion on Joseph Schacther's take on the oil market (hint, Victor thinks Joseph is brilliant). Also what to do with the stock markets of the world blasting to new all time highs, the US Dollar that just closed with a weekly key reversal down. Victor thinks the US Dollar is sitting on a knife edge and that its next move is going to effect a lot of markets. 

34:25 - 35:36 - Michael's Goofy: This week's Goofy answers 3 questions, 1. What institution is the leader of the pro-life movement? 2. Who is the world leader of the Global pro-llfe movement?. 3. the answer to this question is the Goofy

mt

 

 

 

 

 



<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >> Page 1 of 32

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Josef Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine