Today we find out just how seasonal those 200,000 new jobs were in December 2011. Consensus is for employment to grow by 140,000 — about par with population growth. Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 8.5%.
As I am so fond of writing, no single month’s NFP matters all that much — focus on the overall trend to see what is significant. By way of the two charts below, the major overall trends have been improving. New Jobless claims have been ticking downwards since May of 2011. (Benchmark updates could be significant also).
We have seen a variety of retail sales disappointments — notably, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Ambercrombie & Fitch (ANF). Without more hiring and wage gains, higher consumer spending is going to be a difficult challenge to meet.
From a trading perspective, weakness would be problematic. With earnings slowing, the aforementioned soft retail, and the markets as overbought as they have been in a few months, the bulls don’t really need a weak number today.
From an investing standpoint, the outliers are where the risks lay: Too strong number (rather unexpected) might increase pressure on the Fed to end Operation twist and postpone QE3. A too weak number raises the possibility of a recession
Last year marked the third-largest growth in the potash industry, but hesitancy from India and China may put things on hold in 2012. However, MGI Securities Analyst Corey Dias still expects to see a lot of positive news coming out of the junior potash space. In an exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Dias specifies which companies he'll be following for progress.
The Energy Report: Total potash demand in 2011 was estimated at 56 million tons (Mt), and the market has traditionally grown at a rate of about 3.5%/year. Do you believe we'll see a similar increase in 2012?
Corey Dias: I think 3.5% could be at the high end of growth for 2012. I would expect slightly lower growth this year given that India is delaying its potash purchases until the end of Q112. China is also determining its exact needs, and there are rumors that it may reduce its imports this year versus 2011. Everything tends to depend on price. Canpotex (the marketing company for Saskatchewan potash producers) and its Belarusian counterpart are holding out for higher prices than India and the China currently seems willing to pay. With those delays, demand will probably be slightly below the historical 3.5% growth rate.
Written by Peter Grandich via Bull Market Thinking
Friday, 03 February 2012 06:52
“The junior market just got way oversold. We saw things come down to levels that their projects were just worth so much more than the current market cap…The problems that I’m hearing from the corporate side, is the concern on these companies now is that they’ll get taken out before they get to a valuation that’s really worthy.”
Loyal subscribers know I often opine that world markets are in the midst of a secular bull market for commodities, or “stuff”, as my recently passed friend Clyde Harrison was so fond of saying. Despite his traitorous penchant for Coors Light (instead of the classic St. Louis-brewed lagers), Clyde was one of those fellow Missourians who always had to be shown, and we all miss his wry wit, sense of humor, and insight into the speculative commodities markets.
You may also be aware of my many writings and interviews on the supply-demand fundamentals of copper, the metal with a “Ph.D. in Economics”. Copper is the one commodity that most directly reflects the near- and mid-term health of the world’s economy.
The modern copper industry started in the early 1900s with advent of large, mechanized open pit mines that could mine lower grades thru economies of scale. Development of these mines was coincident with the demand for and delivery of electricity to the industrialized world. Copper cable and wire is necessary for efficient transmission of electrical power and remains the main use of the metal.
The New Year rally in global stock markets saw the S&P gain four per cent in its best January since 1994. But 10 and 19 per cent gains respectively for gold and silver comfortably beat equities hands down.
Silver rose above $34 an ounce in Asian trading yesterday while gold is above $1,750 again. The bulls are talking about how long it takes to exceed the $48 and $1,923 highs set last year.
Dubai Souk
The talk of the Dubai Old Gold Souk is that silver will hit $58-60 an ounce by September (click here), though it is still hard to find anybody prepared to stick their neck out beyond $2,000 an ounce for gold, albeit possibly within a couple of months.
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