Elliot Wave International notes that S&P futures traders are the most bullish they've been in 4 years! Other sentiment surveys indicate even more bullishness among individual investors.

Anyway ... much of the optimism likely stems from unusual improvement in usual economic data. Besides some improvement in manufacturing numbers et al, there seems to be improvement in sentiment numbers too. Small businesses optimism is steadily, albeit slowly, improving. A growing number of CEOs of major US companies expect to see sales growth, increased capital spending, and payroll additions over the next six months.

We acknowledge the small improvements that small businesses and big-time CEOs see in the economy. But we think the improvements don't yet outweigh the potential risks that the economy will be held down, and recovery really won't equate to self-sustaining progress.

But then again, maybe we're just perennially seeking that black swan event ...

....read more HERE