While equities continue to take the risk of escalating trade wars in stride, ignoring the threat of an additional $200BN in tariffs on Chinese exports and pushing the S&P back above 2800, some investors are taking a far more cautious approach: instead of piling into tech names - the most popular trade of 2018 bar none - Australian investment manager AMP Capital Investors, which manages $139BN, is instead buying ultra-long bonds as a hedge for a worst case scenario, according to Ilan Dekell, the head of macro for global fixed income at the asset manager.
"Six weeks ago, we started increasing our duration in the 30-year part of the curve,” Dekell told Bloomberg in an interview in Sydney. “It gives us a bit of protection. I can’t forecast the trade war."
Doing the opposite of Horseman Capital, AMP Capital is also betting on continued dollar strength by shorting a basket of emerging-market currencies which have been pounded in recent months amid tightening global liquidity.