Login

Wealth Building Strategies

Gundlach’s Top ETF Recommendation

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Robert Huebscher - Advisor Perspectives

on Thursday, 07 December 2017 06:43

The money to be made is in non-U.S. markets, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. For long-term investors, he recommends a specific ETF.

That ETF is INDA, the iShares fund that tracks the Indian equity market. He singled out India because of the growth of its workforce and its tradition of education and technology.

“It could go up 1,000% in the next 20 years,” Gundlach said, “just like China did.” INDA is up 32% year-to-date and carries an expense ratio of 0.71%.

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 6.53.52 AM

Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital. He spoke at the Schwab IMPACT conference on November 16. His talk was titled, “2017: At the Home Stretch.”

I’ll go over what he said about the global economy and why he believes emerging markets are a compelling opportunity, along with some “insane” developments in various asset classes.

The global landscape

This has been a very easy year for investors, he said, with no volatility in bonds, although short rates have gone up. The S&P is up 17%, but he said investors would actually have been unlucky to have over-allocated to it, since some of the emerging markets have performed better.

....continue reading HERE

...also:

2018 Global Market Outlook: Running with the Bulls



Banner

Wealth Building Strategies

The Unprecedented Moneymaking Potential of This New Technical Pattern

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Money Morning

on Wednesday, 06 December 2017 07:19

While everyone's been talking about the Dow's third major milestone this year – breaking the 24,000 mark – I'm focusing on something else…

You see, there's a new technical pattern forming in a couple of department store stocks. If it's true and you catch it at the right time, you can make a lot of money.

But timing is everything because this pattern is a tricky one.

Make sure your kids aren't looking over your shoulder trying to read this educational piece. If you are the squeamish type, you may not be able to get through this article in one reading. I'm going to teach you a new technical pattern with a not-so-happy name.

Let's examine the profit potential of this macabre-sounding pattern that may be taking place on a couple of department store stocks…

The Dead Cat Bounce

The pattern gets its name from an old saying among traders that "even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from a high enough level."

And the same for goes for stocks. Well, it goes for stocks when you're interested in a short-term recovery-type trade, which is great for a quick profit.

A dead cat bounce (DCB) is the type of pattern that usually forms after a sustained drop in share price, let's say six months to a year. At that point, the stock may become a turnaround candidate with the potential to be a nice performer over the long haul. But that's just potential…

The stock being observed is still one that had a significant drop in share price over a long period of time.

These stocks are generally trading at or near a year's low in price, so to expect them to just bounce back to previous all-time highs or start making new highs is actually not that realistic.

The term "bounce" in the name of the strategy signifies to me this will be a somewhat sharp or quick upward move. After a stock soars again, it's not uncommon for it to fall back to Earth. In fact, it's generally likely.

It may bounce a few times at this low and start hammering a lengthier bottoming-type technical setup like a double or triple bottom, a rounding bottom, or a cup-and-handle pattern.

But it first has to bounce, and the dead cat bounce is the first pattern to watch for when stocks are at significant lows. We use it to profit from the short-term recovery of a falling stock.

A Look at Macy's

Macys


The "E" I circled indicates Macy's Inc.'s (NYSE: M) most recent earnings report.



Read more...

Banner

Wealth Building Strategies

The True Meaning of Bitcoin's 'Success'

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Michael Ballanger- Streetwise Reports

on Tuesday, 05 December 2017 07:21

In the year 301 AD, the Roman unit of barter was the denarius, which had originally been 95% pure silver when introduced by Augustus at the end of the first century BC but by the time of Diocletian's rule, it had moved to 50,000 denarii to a pound of gold. Ten year later, it took 120,000 denarii to buy a pound of gold and by 337, that figure was 20,000,000. What had occurred in a mere 400 years was that a slow and agonizing erosion in the purchasing power of the Roman currency accelerated to full fiat disintegration and that complete and total disregard for the denarius was attributed as one of the underlying causes of the Fall of the Roman Empire. Nothing was more evident in the underlying rot permeating Roman society, economics and national security than the refusal by the Barbarian armies to accept anything but gold as payment for their leaving the Roman legions alone. Rejection of the currency of the Roman Empire was complete and irreversible.

image001

One of the omens of impending inflationary spirals is the tendency of those individuals controlling large swaths of wealth to reject any form of "savings" in the form of bank deposits or interest-bearing certificates. They choose instead to jettison cash or cash-equivalent instruments because of a loss of faith in the ability of local currencies to retain purchasing power. We have seen this over the ages from Weimar Germany to Zimbabwe and now Venezuela, and where gold and land were generally the tried-and-true assets of choice for those wishing to protect their wealth from the insanity and irresponsibility of governments, today in 2017 with the advent of technology and its attendant curses and wonders, the wunderkind of today have actually created their own receptacle for frightened wealth and that is the true meaning of Bitcoin and its incredible "success."

When the chief technology engineers sat down ten years ago after watching the global bankers vaporize the financial system and then turn right around and "save" it through a massive and globally coordinated counterfeiting racket, they determined that anywhere government has control over money (as in the banking system), there could be no certainty of anything responsible or prudent whereas there was absolute certainty that corruption would exist at a systemic level. Therein lies the reason for the invention of blockchain technologies and the best-performing "asset" of 2017, Bitcoin, which is ahead an astonishing 1,000% year-to-date spurring the creation of hundreds and hundreds of "wannabes" being trotted out as heir apparents.

Traditionally, investors moved to the old saws, gold and silver, as safe havens for decomposing currencies and as recently as this year, we have witnessed the efficacy of wealth preservation as Venezuelan citizens that moved their savings to U.S. dollars from the bolivar avoided the most hideous of outcomes as the bolivar collapsed. This is precisely what occurs when confidence sinks to zero and hoarding of staples escalates. 



Read more...

Banner

Wealth Building Strategies

Bubble Anatomy 101

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Gary Savage - Smartmoneytracker.comeytracker.com

on Thursday, 30 November 2017 07:12

This video explains why bubbles behave as they do and details the common mistakes investors make in trading bubbles.

vitt

 

Larger Chart

This has the potential to be a top, or it could just intensify the bubble mentality even more, making it even that much more likely that investors get caught when the top arrives. The more times the market recovers the more convinced traders become that there is no risk thus causing them to hold too long and get trapped when the final top does occur.

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/


Banner

Wealth Building Strategies

Seeking Value in an Expensive World

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by David Rosenberg - Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff

on Wednesday, 29 November 2017 06:42

japan-canadaWell, it’s hard to believe that it’s been a year since Donald Trump got elected, and at least the good news is that we’re still alive. All kidding aside, the question I’ve been fielding ever since November 8th of last year and to this day is how we are investing around Donald Trump, and the answer has not changed one iota, which is that we are not investing around Trumponomics at all.

That often raises eyebrows because we all know that the U.S. stock market indices have continued to hit new record highs almost daily, but I would claim that this has had little to do with the President. Actually, if you had owned the basket of Trump stocks the so-called experts told you to own after last year’s election, you would have woefully lagged behind.

And of course, it goes without saying that the top performing sector by a country mile, and I am talking about technology, was the area we were all supposed to avoid since Silicon Valley would pay the price for not supporting The Donald. And yet the tech universe is up 40% for the year and has nearly doubled the rest of the market. There may be some hope out there that we will see tax reform south of the border, but there are an array of other factors influencing investor sentiment right now. Ongoing supportive global liquidity growth and the vast majority of companies beating their profits and sales estimates are among the reasons.

That said, excessive valuations and the Fed now coupling its rate hikes with balance sheet reduction I think are going to produce some speed bumps for risk appetite in coming months. Between that and the tapering by the ECB and the fact that the Bank of England joined the Fed on the rate-hiking front, are all very likely going to generate a less calm and more choppy market. Though this actually would be a good thing in terms of opening up some buying opportunities, taking advantage of these opportunities will require having some dry powder on hand. 

In terms of our highest conviction calls, given that we are coming off the 100th month anniversary of this economic cycle, the third longest ever and almost double what is normal, it is safe to say that we are pretty late in the game. The question is just how late, and we did some research looking at an array of market and macro variables, and concluded that we are about 90% through, which means we are somewhere past the 7th inning stretch in baseball parlance but not yet the bottom of the 9th. The high-conviction message here is that we have entered a phase of the cycle to be very mindful of risk, to be bolstering the quality of the portfolio, to be focusing on strong balance sheets, minimal refinancing risk and companies with high earnings visibility and predictability, and with low correlations to U.S. GDP. In other words, the exact opposite of how to be positioned in the early innings of the cycle where it is perfectly appropriate to be extremely pro-cyclical.

So it’s either about investing around late-cycle thematics in North America or it is about heading to other geographies that are closer to mid cycle — and that would include Europe, segments of the Emerging Market space where the fundamentals have really improved, and also primarily in Japan. These markets are not only mid cycle and as such have a longer runway for growth, but also trade relatively inexpensively in a world where value is scarce, and for the most part, still have friendly central banks keeping liquidity conditions flush.

I would have to say that if there is a market that has broken out of a 25-year secular downtrend, and where the economic and political tailwinds are significant, it is in Japan. I get told all the time that Japan’s population is declining, but we are buying companies, not bodies, and the bottom line is that even with this declining population, earnings momentum is on the rise and profit margins in Japan are on an impressive expansion phase, and not nearly priced in. In fact, Japan is one of the few markets globally that is not trading at premium multiples relative to its history and is an under-owned market both globally and locally. 

Turning to Canada, there is some visibility here in the oil price given: the high degree of OPEC compliance and the strong likelihood of an extension to the output cut agreement; the drawdown in US inventories; declines in global storage; solid world demand especially from oil-hungry emerging markets; and a geopolitical risk premium coming back into the market because of the uncertainties now over the Iran deal which sits in Congress and these tensions between Iraq and the Kurds. The shape of the curve doesn’t lie and the recent move from contango to backwardation is an added sign of how tight the crude market has become. The beauty here is that the Canadian E&P stocks are not priced for where oil is today, and over the near term there is more upside potential than downside risk. So they look attractively priced here, once again in a world where inexpensive assets are in short supply. And given the correlations between energy and the Canadian banks, this is good news for this sector as well.



Read more...

Banner

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >> Page 9 of 47

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Michael Campbell
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Patrick Ceresna
Josef Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine