Wealth Building Strategies

How Did We Get 2016 So Wrong?

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Monday, 09 January 2017 15:19

Go through the late 2015/early 2016 articles published on this and similar sites and you'll find a consensus that 2016 was going to be a really bad year. Corporate profits were falling, business inventories had spiked, and deflation was deepening in Japan and Europe. See More Ominous Charts For 2016 for a longer list of indicators that seemed, a year ago, to portend imminent recession if not full-blown financial crisis.

As David Stockman put it in a late-2015 prediction piece,

The Keynesian Recovery Meme Is About To Get Mugged, Part 1

Just consider the most recent data on wholesale sales and inventory. This sector of the domestic economy embodies the leading edge of business activity, meaning that trends in wholesale level sales and inventory stocking are advance indicators of the general macroeconomic outlook.

Needless to say, the soaring inventory-sales ratio is not a sign that "escape velocity" is just around the corner. Contrariwise, whenever the ratio has busted through 1.30X in the past, what came next was a recession.




Wealth Building Strategies

Shanghai Gold Exchange: As bullish as some claim?

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Money & Markets

on Friday, 06 January 2017 16:44

I don’t think so. Here again, most analysts got the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) completely wrong.

The SGE was established in October 2002 by China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (“PBOC”) upon approval by State Council and supervised by PBOC.

Officially and fully open for business in September 2014, I personally was the first foreigner to visit the SGE in October 2004 and spoke with the president. Construction was underway, communications, quote pits for the different products and more. It was an interesting visit, under armed guard.

But for the record, let me explain the myth that the SGE is going to boost gold demand and send it to the moon.

The chief reason for the SGE is to officially allow two
types of cross-border trade in gold in China:
To promote general trade and processing trade.

In a nutshell, that means the gold is not brought in to the SGE for investment …



Wealth Building Strategies

The Greatest Money Manager Alive Attributes The Majority Of His Success To Just This One Thing

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Posted by The Felder Report

on Tuesday, 03 January 2017 06:03

Stanley-DruckenmillerLast April I wrote a post about the specific trading style that has made guys like Stan Druckenmiller, Jim Rogers and George Soros so successful. That post focused on a single quote from Druck which I found particularly compelling because it goes against what most investment pundits would tell you is the right way to invest.

But Druck made an even more poignant and timely point in that speech a year ago. He singled out specifically what he believes to be the most important factor behind the returns in risk assets, namely the stock market:

....continue reading HERE


Wealth Building Strategies

Investing For Maximum Profits During A New US Presidency

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Posted by Peter DeGraaf

on Friday, 30 December 2016 08:26

By listening to President-elect Trump we can anticipate the effect his administration will have on the US economy. 

Here is what we know: Mr. Trump plans to beef up the military, and improve US infrastructure, including a wall at the southern border.   

While there are other priorities, such as improving on healthcare, just his two main goals will require many billions of dollars. 

Being a successful businessman is his asset, and no doubt the new president will surprise us with funding that will be new and novel, such as enticing US companies with overseas assets to repatriate those funds and put them to work in the USA. 

Nevertheless, we can be assured that whatever new sources of revenue the new administration comes up with, government spending will increase and so will the Federal Deficit.

The total US Federal Deficit will top 20 trillion before long. This will be accommodated with more printing press money. Congress and the Senate are likely to go along with spending plans. Already the ongoing monetary inflation is causing price inflation, and the expectation is that this price inflation will accelerate.

Our ’investing for maximum profits’ therefore must include stocks and commodities that will grow during a period of price inflation. 

Charts are courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated.       

orig chart one 636185615617309476

Featured is the monthly US CPI chart.  Even though this official government Consumer Price Index is ‘tweeked’ to make it appear as benign as possible, the trend is clearly rising higher.  


Featured is the Chapwood index of price inflation in 10 US cities.  This index www.chapwoodindex.com tracks items that are used or consumed on a daily basis, compared to the components of the index used by the government, which are ‘massaged’ to produce a desired outcome.  From these two charts (and especially the Chapwood chart) it is obvious that price inflation is ‘here to stay’.  

Following are some charts that feature commodities which will benefit from increased inflation.  Our personal portfolio is centered around these commodities and this portfolio has increased by over 52%, during the past 12 months.  In order to stay ahead of price inflation, our assets need to grow faster than the rate of inflation. 



Wealth Building Strategies

Technically Speaking: Your Brain Is Killing Your Returns

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Posted by Lance Roberts - The Real Investment Report

on Wednesday, 28 December 2016 08:02

“Technically” from this past weekend’s missive. The important point, if you haven’t read it, was:

“The stampede into U.S. equity ETFs since the election has been nothing short of breathtaking,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer at TrimTabs. ‘The inflow since Election Day is equal to one and a half times the inflow of $61.5 billion in all of the last year.  One has to wonder who’s left to buy.’”

You can see this exuberance in the deviation of the S&P 500 from its long-term moving averages as compared to the collapse in the volatility index. There is simply “NO FEAR” of a correction in the markets currently which has always been a precedent for a correction in the past.


The chart below is a MONTHLY chart of the S&P 500 which removes the daily price volatility to reveal some longer-term market dynamics. With the markets currently trading 3-standard deviations above their intermediate-term moving average, and with longer-term sell signals still weighing on the market, some caution is advisable.



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