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"The Best Is Behind Us": How A $139 Billion Fund Is Preparing For The Worst

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Monday, 16 July 2018 06:35

While equities continue to take the risk of escalating trade wars in stride, ignoring the threat of an additional $200BN in tariffs on Chinese exports and pushing the S&P back above 2800, some investors are taking a far more cautious approach: instead of piling into tech names - the most popular trade of 2018 bar none - Australian investment manager AMP Capital Investors, which manages $139BN, is instead buying ultra-long bonds as a hedge for a worst case scenario, according to Ilan Dekell, the head of macro for global fixed income at the asset manager.

"Six weeks ago, we started increasing our duration in the 30-year part of the curve,” Dekell told Bloomberg in an interview in Sydney.  “It gives us a bit of protection. I can’t forecast the trade war." 

Doing the opposite of Horseman Capital, AMP Capital is also betting on continued dollar strength by shorting a basket of emerging-market currencies which have been pounded in recent months amid tightening global liquidity.

bonds EM

 

....read more HERE



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Wealth Building Strategies

The First Bitcoin ETF Might Be Just Months Away

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Posted by Alex Kimani

on Friday, 13 July 2018 14:59

ticker

In March 2017, the SEC dealt a blow to the bitcoin community when it rejected a proposed bitcoin ETF by the Winklevoss twins. Crypto bugs were disappointed mainly because an ETF would have been an ideal way to lend credence to the cryptocurrency industry and also inject institutional capital into the game. But much has changed since then, and a bitcoin ETF no longer looks like such a long shot. In fact, the world’s first bitcoin ETF could become reality in a matter of months, according to.... CLICK for the complete article



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Wealth Building Strategies

Investing Lessons from a Top Poker Player

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Posted by Larry Swedroe - Director of Research - Bam Alliance

on Wednesday, 11 July 2018 08:33

anniedukeAs expert poker player Annie Duke explains in her book, Thinking in Bets, one of the more common mistakes amateurs make is the tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. Poker players call this trait “resulting.”

In my own book, “Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them,” I describe this mistake as confusing before-the-fact strategy with after-the-fact outcome. In either case, it is often caused by hindsight bias: the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see it as virtually inevitable.

Duke explains: “When we say ‘I should have known that would happen,’ or, ‘I should have seen it coming,’ we are succumbing to hindsight bias.” She adds that we tend to link results with decisions even though it is easy to point out indisputable examples where the relationship between decisions and results isn’t so perfectly correlated.

For example, she writes, “No sober person thinks getting home safely after driving drunk reflects a good decision or good driving ability.” The lesson, as Duke explains, is that we aren’t wrong just because things didn’t work out, and we aren’t right just because they turned out well.

Don’t judge performance by results

“Fooled by Randomness” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb put it this way: “One cannot judge a performance in any given field by the results, but by the costs of the alternative (i.e., if history played out in a different way). Such substitute courses of events are called alternative histories. Clearly the quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome, but such a point seems to be voiced only by people who fail (those who succeed attribute their success to the quality of their decision).”

Here's an example from poker. With one card remaining to be drawn, there are just two players left in the hand. Player X calculates that he has an 86% chance of winning. Based on those odds, he makes a large bet. Unfortunately, he loses the hand, just as he would expect to occur 14% of the times he faced the same situation. If he engaged in resulting, he would change his betting strategy because he would conclude that it was wrong to make such a bet. However, we know that if he made the same decision each time he faced those odds, over the long term, he would be expected to come out way ahead.

Let’s look at another example of resulting. John Smith, a hypothetical investor, works for Google and has nearly his entire portfolio invested in Google stock. He became a multimillionaire based on that strategy. John believes concentrating all your eggs in one basket – a basket that, as a senior executive, he could watch closely – is the right strategy. He thought diversification was only for investors who don’t have his sophistication. Of course, many other, similar situations turned out entirely differently, despite using the same strategy of concentrating risk in what you know. That’s why the saying “the surest way to create a small fortune is to start out with a large one and concentrate your risk” offers such good counsel.

Flawed Strategy

Among the once-great companies whose stock prices collapsed are Polaroid, Eastman Kodak, Digital Equipment, Burroughs and Xerox. However, despite the fact that there are far more Polaroids than Googles – showing John’s strategy is flawed – his outcome convinced him the strategy was right.

As Duke points out, once a belief becomes lodged, it becomes very difficult to dislodge. It takes on a life of its own, leading us to notice only evidence that is confirming, and causing us to experience cognitive dissonance. We then work hard to actively discredit contradicting information, a process called motivated reasoning.

Making matters worse is that research shows being “smart” actually makes certain behavioral biases worse: The smarter you are, the better you are at constructing a narrative that supports your held belief.

Duke cites the research of Richard West, Russell Meserve and Keith Stanovich, who tested the blind-spot bias. They found we are much better at recognizing biased reasoning in others but are blind to recognizing it in ourselves.

Surprisingly, at least to me, West, Meserve and Stanovich also found that the better you were with numbers, the worse the bias – the better you are with numbers, the better you are at spinning those numbers to suit your narrative. Quoting Duke: “Our capacity for self-deception knows no boundaries.” So, what does this have to do with investing?

Invest by playing the odds

When it comes to investing, there are no clear crystal balls. Just as in poker, the best we can do is put the odds in our favor and invest (bet) accordingly.

As I recently discussed, using factor data from Dimensional Fund Advisors from 2007 through 2017, the value premium (the annual average difference in returns between value stocks and growth stocks) was -2.3%. Unfortunately, resulting, hindsight bias and recency bias led many to conclude it was a mistake to invest in, or overweight, value stocks.

Another way to look at the situation is that, over 10-year periods since 1927, value stocks outperformed growth stocks 86% of the time – the same percentage as in the aforementioned poker hand. The value premium’s now-decade-long underperformance was not unexpected, in the sense that in 14% of the alternative universes that might have shown up, we expected value stocks to underperform.

Similarly, again using Dimensional Fund Advisors data, the market-beta premium has been negative (U.S. stocks underperformed riskless one-month Treasury bills) in 9% of the 10-year periods since 1927.

In other words, investing is risky. To be successful, you must accept that fact there will be periods, even very long ones, when the right strategy leads to poor outcomes. Even at 20-year horizons, the market beta premium has been negative 3% of the time. That is why Warren Buffett has said investing is simple, but not easy. It takes discipline to earn risk premiums.

Summary

One of the hardest things for investors to do is to stay disciplined when their strategy delivers poor results. It certainly is possible that the strategy was wrong. To determine if that is the case, look to see if the assumptions behind the strategy were correct. Seek the truth, whether it aligns with your beliefs or not. For investors, the truth lies in the data. When your theory isn’t supported by the data, throw out your theory.

While it’s certainly not an investment book, investors can learn many lessons from Duke’s “Thinking in Bets.”

Larry Swedroe is the director of research forThe BAM Alliance, a community of more than 140 independent registered investment advisors throughout the country



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Wealth Building Strategies

‘We’re going after Tesla’, Says Fiat-Chrysler With Their New EV Plan

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Posted by Fred Lambert

on Tuesday, 10 July 2018 12:46

electricmas

To this date, Fiat-Chrysler (FCA) hasn’t been a leader in the current electrification of the auto industry, but the company has now announced a significant acceleration of its electric vehicle programs.

Now they say that they are “going after Tesla” with their own luxury brands. Maserati is getting the most electric additions to its lineup with 4 all-electric vehicles to be added by.... CLICK for the complete article



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Wealth Building Strategies

Ignoring Economic Reality: Ayn Rand Would Laugh

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Posted by Gary Christensen - The Deviant Investor

on Friday, 01 June 2018 07:23

“We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand. Today Gary Christensen lays out the 3 comforting beliefs are incorrect and will be proven false in coming years and what asset will have more purchasing power in the next 10 years - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

word-image-17

The western world has ignored economic realities for decades. It’s not a Republican or Democratic problem. Banking, power, fiat currencies, dishonest money and transfers of wealth are the issues.

The consequences of ignoring reality are uncomfortable and dangerous. However, most people prefer palatable, easy to digest and believable stories.

In the United States, the U.K., Europe, and Japan it is comforting to believe:



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