DUBLIN – Oil fell below $43 wednesday. Brick-and-mortar retailers are being emptied. The auto industry – including $1.2 trillion in auto debt – is stalling.
Meanwhile, restaurants are having trouble filling their tables. Consumers aren’t buying, perhaps because their incomes have gone approximately nowhere for decades.
House ownership is at its lowest level in half a century… along with employment participation. And consumer price inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is falling. So are Treasury yields.
All of these things – and more – point in the same direction: toward a recession.
Blinded by the Fed
Meanwhile, in a parallel universe centered in Lower Manhattan, prices for stocks still sell near record prices.
The stock market is supposed to look ahead. It is supposed to see more than any one person. It is supposed to detect signs of trouble long before they appear to the naked eye.
But it seems to see nothing at all. The subject of today’s Diary: What is the cause of this blindness? Who’s to blame?
Wasting no time on the evidence, we collar the culprit and get out a rope.
Why can’t the stock market see what is going on in the real economy?