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Timing & trends

An Invitation to the Auction


Posted by Michael Campbell

on Friday, 22 June 2018 17:08

silver ingots

You may be tired of hearing about Special Olympics but lucky for the 4,600 athletes with intellectual disabilities and their families – I’m not tired of looking for help. The reason is straightforward.  Way too often children and adults with intellectual disabilities are overlooked, marginalized and isolated in our communities.

Special Olympics goes a long way to rectifying that by providing an opportunity to participate in a variety of sports, developmental programs and health screenings. Just as importantly, for many of our athletes Special Olympics provides the only connection to the community at large.  It’s where they make friends. As one of our athletes said, "before I joined Special Olympics I didn't know there were other people like me."

I think it's safe to say that for the vast majority of our athletes our programs end their isolation, build their self-esteem and have a profound impact on the quality of their lives and their families.

This is where you come in.

Once again I am participating in The Goldcorp Invitational Golf Tournament. (Why do I feel I should apologize in advance to all golfers?)

It’s one of only two public fundraisers in the year and hence is essential in enabling Special O  to provide programs for kids as young as two.  Obviously not everyone can participate in the golf tournament but we can all help by supporting bidding in our online auction.

It runs for only a week and closes on Thursday, June 28th.  You can bid right through the evening when the auction closes.  Not really different than if you were there, except you won’t have to hear me whine about my golf or see me in Laderhosen.  

Here’s some sample auction items  …

100 oz silver bar, 2 tickets to the 2018 Grey Cup in Edmonton, Monster DNA Carbon Headphones,  4 tickets to Bard on the Beach, 3 bottles of Terroir Wine, Chateau Whistler stay and golf – and so many more.

Warning: Ozzie’s got his eye on the Power Wheels 6 volt Corvette – and you will definitely be bidding against me on lots of other items – why? Because Special O athletes and their families deserve our support.

Click here to go to the auction site – and please start bidding.

www.goldcorpinvitational.com

Many thanks, Mike

Thanks for reading this – and I hope you can find the time to help out.  Just bid anytime – day or night right through the auction on June 28th (ending about 7:45 PDT)

Happy bidding.

Ozzie



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Stocks & Equities

RIP General Electric


Posted by Brad McMillan - Commonwealth Financial Network

on Thursday, 21 June 2018 07:34

Screenshot 2018-06-21 07.43.37

Yesteray's explusion of GE from the Dow Industrial Average means several things. First, GE was the last of the original Dow Industrial Average components, tossed out like all the others for moving from a world-beating company to something different.......which the FAANG (i.e., Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google) companies are as vunerable - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

One of the big pieces of news in the financial world today focuses on General Electric (GE). The iconic American conglomerate has been removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and its stock will no longer be included when the index is calculated. It will be replaced by the drugstore chain Walgreens.

No surprise here?

In some respects, this is neither a surprise nor a big deal. GE has had enormous problems over the past couple of years, and the stock has dropped significantly. GE simply is not as big or successful as it has been; therefore, it is less representative of the broader economy and market than it was. It should be dropped.

On the other hand, this is GE! It has been part of the Dow for almost all of the Dow’s existence. It used to be the largest company of them all, by market cap, and for years was one of the most admired. For GE to fall this far means, if you think about it, that you can’t take the continued success of any company for granted.

A story of high flyers

That view, I think, is the correct way to look at this. It is not a valedictory for a once-great company but a lesson that no company is guaranteed success. Even the best will face tough times—and may not survive them. This story is not about GE per se but about all the other high flyers out there.

The FAANG (i.e., Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google) companies come immediately to mind. Right now, they are the largest and most admired companies out there, just as GE was at its peak. Right now, they seem to own the world, just as GE did. Right now, their fall is almost unimaginable. How could any of them fail to grow forever?

Actually, that last point isn’t quite true. We have the example of GE in front of us. Plus, if we look back a generation to the dot-com boom and bust, we can see the last round of tech companies that could do no wrong. A couple of them are still here and, indeed, still changing the world. But most are gone and forgotten. Even the ones that have survived and flourished ran into very tough times along the way.

The bigger picture

The story of the fall of GE is bigger than that, as well. It highlights that it is not just companies that rise and fall; it is industries as well. GE rose on its industrial prowess. As industry faded, GE moved into other areas—but never really matched its initial mojo. Industries grow and decline just like any other economic entity. In 2006, for example, the financial sector was 22 percent of the S&P 500 market cap. Today, it is less than 15 percent. In 1999, tech was almost 30 percent; in 2002, it was less than 15 percent and has since moved back up to almost 21 percent. These are big swings, and they reflect real changes in the economy and the markets.

What does GE mean for us today?

For people who owned the stock, not much immediately. The damage has already been done. For the rest of us, it should mean that we need to keep an eye on our investments and make sure we understand them. GE moved from a world-beating company to something different. It took markets—and investors—quite a while to understand that.

Don’t be caught by surprise. Pay attention to what you own and what is really happening. That is what we do here at Commonwealth every day. If you do your own investing, it is what you need to do as well.

Brad McMillan is the chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, the nation’s largest privately held independent broker/dealer-RIA. He is the primary spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. This post originally appeared on The Independent Market Observer, a daily blog authored by Brad McMillan. Forward-looking statements are based on our reasonable expectations and are not guaranteed. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any objective or goal will be achieved. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot actually invest directly into an index. Unlike investments, indices do not incur management fees, charges, or expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.



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Timing & trends

How To Settle Down Your "Fear of Missing Out" In Mining Stocks


Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Thursday, 21 June 2018 07:12

gold-mining-stocks

Everyone wants to buy at the absolute bottom in any market.  Yet, most actually buy at the highs, expecting much higher prices, and then sell at the lows, while expecting even lower prices.  The gold market is no different.

Back in 2011, when the metals were approaching their highs, most analysts were suggesting that investors keep buying gold as this would be their last opportunity before gold eclipses $2,000, never to look back again.  Moreover, these same analysts remained bullish throughout the decline during 2012, 2013, 2014 and most of 2015.  Amazingly, as we approached the end of 2015, these same analysts ultimately turned bearish, and were just as confident that gold would certainly break below $1,000 as they were confident that gold would certainly eclipse $2,000 in 2011. It truly is amazing how markets work against the masses.

Yet, in 2011, we saw that impending top coming, as we warned those following us in August of 2011:

“since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave “blow-off-top,” I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time.”

Then again, at the end of 2015, we warned:

“As we move into 2016, I believe there is a greater than 80% probability that we finally see a long term bottom formed in the metals and miners and the long term bull market resumes.  Those that followed our advice in 2011, and moved out of this market for the correction we expected, are now moving back into this market as we approach the long term bottom.  In 2011, before gold even topped, we set our ideal target for this correction in the $700-$1,000 region in gold. We are now reaching our ideal target region, and the pattern we have developed over the last 4 years is just about complete. . . For those interested in my advice, I would highly suggest you start moving back into this market with your long term money . . .”

Moreover, we rolled out our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015 to begin to buy miners we saw bottoming, in the expectation of the impending bottom to the complex.

So, as many were buying at the highs in 2011 at the urging of most analysts of the time, we were selling.  And, as many were selling at the lows in 2015 at the urging of most analysts of the time, we were buying. 

But, while we view the market as likely having bottomed in its long-term structure in 2015/2016, and having begun a multi-decade bull market, as I have outlined many times before, it does not mean we will be going up in a straight line.  In fact, the last year and a half of sideways consolidation clearly supports this perspective. 

You see, markets are not linear, so they go through periods of progression and regression.  Only those who are gold bugs view gold as only supposed to be moving in one direction, whereas the only reason it could fall, in their mind, would be manipulation.  And, I have addressed this view extensively in this article.

https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Was-The-Metals-Market-Manipulated-To-Drop-From-To-201709194206284.html

So, if we understand that the metals will naturally go through periods of progression and regression, we can maintain a much healthier perspective on the market, which can keep us grounded during both the periods of progression and regression, understanding that each has its own place in the overall structure of gold’s movement.

This brings me to the point of this article.  As you probably know, I view the metals as just starting a multi-decade bull market.  In fact, if you have read my analysis through the years, you would know that I view the current set up in the metals in the same manner as Ralph Nelson Elliott viewed the Dow when it was around 100 (yes, 100) back in the 1941, as World War II was raging around him, when he provided the following prognostication:

[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.

This was probably one of the best, if not the best, market call of all time.  And, as I just noted, I view the set up in the mining complex in the same way Elliott viewed the Dow back in 1941.

But, again, I do not view this impending bull market as moving in one direction all the time. Rather, we will have periods of progression and regression.  While I expect the next period of progression to begin quite soon, I feel that you may be able to keep your FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in check for a few more years, even though it may be tested later this year in 2018.

I would like to explain this perspective through the use of the daily ABX chart.  As we all know, the ABX is arguably the leading mining company in the metals complex.  So, I view it as providing a nice perspective regarding the potential progression and regression I see over the coming years in some of the larger miners.

As we can see, we have completed an initial 5 wave structure off the 2015 low in the ABX into the high of the summer of 2016.  Since that time, we have pulled back in a very corrective, overlapping 2nd wave.  Currently, I believe we are still working on the wave 1 of iii off the recent lows which we caught in our secondary “buy zone.” Based upon the current structure, it would suggest that it will take the rest of 2018 to complete this wave 1 (assuming we hold the bullish support highlighted on the 60-minute chart).

After we complete this wave 1 into the 20-22 region, I would assume we will see another long pullback in wave 2 during 2019 towards the 14-17 region.  This would then likely set us up for a major break out in 2020, which will likely be pointing to at least the 40-46 region, with the potential to extend as high as the 57 region, depending upon extensions.  And, that would only be for wave 3 of iii off the 2015 lows. 

So, as you can see, while there can be some nice upside which we still expect in 2018, the real fireworks seem to be setting up for 2020 in the ABX, which we may be able to extrapolate to the rest of the complex. 

This means that, while you will likely feel serious FOMO on the next rally that we expect can take hold into the end of 2018, you will likely have one more pullback/buying opportunity in 2019 before the main event takes hold in 2020. 

As we continue to focus on the smaller degree time frames during the week, and as we track the next smaller degree break-out set up, I think it may benefit many of you to take a deep breath and focus on the larger perspectives in the market from time to time.  While I believe we are setting up a major move in the mining complex in the coming years, I think the ABX shows us that the major money may not be made until 2020 and beyond.

So, for those of you who have been stressing during this last year and a half consolidation in the market, I have three words for you:

TAKE A CHILL!

See charts illustrating the wave counts on ABX.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

 



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Stocks & Equities

Global Markets, US Futures Rebound As Trade War Panic Fades


Posted by MarketWatch

on Wednesday, 20 June 2018 08:58

After 6 consecutive declines in the Dow Jones, the longest stretch since March 2017, and erasing all of 2018’s gains, the cash index is finally set for a rebound, trading some 130 points higher in the premarket, as trade war panic fades for now (even if the list of what can go wrong next is long). As a result, the market snapshot this morning is a sea of green...

markets 6.20

....continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

Take the Long-Term View in a Late-Cycle Market


Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investorsors

on Wednesday, 20 June 2018 08:22

Frank Holmes on how to handle the last stage in an up cycle of a bull market when prices can soar into a wild spike top. Frank also covers the current situation in Oil, Gold and why he finds domestic-focused small to mid-cap stocks so attractive right now - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

COMM-rebalance-stick-plan-remember-get-invested-stay-invested-samantha-azzarello-06152018

The U.S. inflation story made further inroads this month, with year-over-year price growth for consumers and producers alike hitting multiyear highs. U.S. consumer prices expanded at their strongest pace in more than six years, climbing to an annual change of 2.8 percent in May. Prices for final demand goods, meanwhile, grew 3.1 percent, their strongest annual surge since December 2011.

annual consumer prices advance the most in six years
click to enlarge

As you might expect, energy was the greatest contributor to higher prices in May, with fuel oil jumping more than 25 percent from the same month a year ago. The current average price for a gallon of regular gas nationwide was just under $3.00, compared to only $2.33 in June 2017, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Inflation is set to get an even bigger jolt now that President Donald Trump has formally approved 25 percent tariffs on as much as $50 billion of Chinese goods. China has already announced retaliatory action. While I agree some targeted tariffs are welcome to address intellectual property theft, tariffs at the wholesale level are essentially regulations that threaten to undermine all the work Trump has done to supercharge the U.S. economy. They act as headwinds to further growth, which in turn makes gold look attractive as a safe haven investment.

Blaming OPEC

Let’s return to energy for a moment. Hot off the success of his historic summit with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un, Trump took a stab at foreign oil producers last week, tweeting:“Oil prices are too high, OPEC is at it again. Not good!”

The president isn’t wrong, but I believe he may be overselling the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ influence here. In May, the 14-member cartel added an extra 35,000 barrels per day (bpd) in output compared to the previous month, to reach a total of 31.8 million bpd. This is down from the average 32.6 million and 32.4 million bpd OPEC collectively produced in 2016 and 2017.

Venezuela’s output deteriorated once again, falling more than 42 percent in May to 1.4 million bpd, which is less than half of what it produced 20 years ago.

The beleaguered South American country didn’t have the biggest monthly decline among OPEC members, however—that title belonged to Nigeria, which saw its April-to-May production tumble 53.5 percent to 1.7 million bpd. Analysts predict output could fall further to 1.4 million bpd by July—a level not seen since 1988—as the country’s Nembe Creek Trunk Line (NCTL) has had to be closed recently to address product theft along its route.

OPEC will meet later this month and is widely expected to loosen production curbs as global demand strengthens. In the meantime, the U.S. continues to pump even more oil on a monthly basis, and by 2019 it could be producing more than 11 million bpd for the first time ever. This would make it the world’s top oil producer, above Russia.

Want to learn more? Watch this brief video featuring Samuel Pelaez, who outlines the six factors we use to select best-in-class oil and gas exploration and production companies!  

Gold Glitters on Inflation Fears and U.S. Budget Imbalance



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