Stocks & Equities

Some Longer Term Projections

Posted by Gary Savage - Smartmoneytracker.com

on Tuesday, 06 March 2018 07:22

Gary Savage is a renowned trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil and currency markets. Today he has some long term projections for the years ahead. (Note: He sees 10,000 on the Nasdaq as a piece of cake!). For larger charts, click the square box lower right to expand the youtube - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks. 

This video details Gary's longer term projections for numerous markets including the Nasdaq Index, Semiconductor Index, SPX 500, Commodities Index and Gold.


Screenshot 2018-03-06 07.53.49



Economic Outlook

Foreign Investment into Canada Has Collapsed by 26% in 2017

Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Tuesday, 06 March 2018 06:56

Martin Armstrong takes apart the steel tarrif's and their substantial impact on Canada, the largest exporter of steel to the United States. This all on top of the decline in investment in Canada's Oil industry. Martin also disentangles the market action around the world yesterday March 5th - Robert Zurrer for Money Tallks

Foreign direct investment into Canada has absolutely plunged during 2017 to the lowest since 2010. There has been an effort to stop the sale of any property to foreign investors mainly from China. On top of that, there has been also a collapse in capital investment into the oil industry. There are fears also rising about an exodus of capital from the nation’s oil patch and worries about the fate of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Direct investment into Canada declined by a stunning 26% dropping to merely $33.8 billion during 2017, according to Statistics Canada. Capital inflows have declined for the second year with the major high in 2015 in accordance with our Economic Confidence Model. The investment that did take place was from reinvested earnings of existing operations. Net foreign purchases of Canadian businesses turned negative for the first time in a decade. This means that foreign companies sold more Canadian businesses than they bought. The political shift in Canada to the left is also being seen as a political risk for the years ahead. A monthly closing BELOW 7305 on the futures will signal the collapse of the C$ is underway once again.

....also from Martin: 

Canada Will be the Most Impact by a Steel Tariff




Paradise in hell. Will the South African Rand morph into the Zimbabwe Dollar?

Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Monday, 05 March 2018 13:21

At one point the a Zimbabwe bank note was 100 Trillion Dollars. Jack Crooks has spyed another great currency collapse set to unfold. Fortunes will be made shorting the South African Rand. - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks


“The malady of normative decay gnaws at order in the person and at order in the republic.  Until we recognize the nature of this affliction, we must sink ever deeper into the disorder of the soul and the disorder of the state.  A recovery of norms can be commenced only when we moderns come to understand in what manner we have fallen away from old truths.”

--Russell Kirk

Commentary & Analysis

Paradise in hell. Will the South African Rand morph into the Zimbabwe Dollar? 


In case you didn’t notice (quite possible because it doesn’t fit the MSM narrative), the esteemed South African parliament, in their infinite wisdom, decided that yes, because the ANC has turned the country into a paradise in hell during its 24-year reign of corruption and incompetence, now is the time to blame white farmers (again) for the country’s problems by confiscating their land (without compensation) and doling it out to political cronies whose skin color most likely won’t be white and farming skills most likely won’t be near the expert category.  

Here is the headline from the Daily Mail:



Mike's Content

Victor's Big Hits on Stocks, Currencies, Oil & Gold

Posted by Michael Campbell & Victor Adair & Victor Adair

on Monday, 05 March 2018 07:24

Victor Adair has had a superb month in Stocks, Currencies, Crude Oil and Gold. Here is his interview with Michael followed by Victors trading notes for this week and next - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

The US stock market was a great barometer of risk appetite this week. The DJIA rallied to 3 week highs on Monday but began falling early Tuesday morning (Powell testimony) and was down nearly 1,600 points at Friday’s lows. The prospect of “trade wars” following Trump’s proposed steel and aluminum tariffs contributed to a high volume acceleration of the decline on Thursday. The major American stock indices all registered a Weekly Key Reversal Down.

For the past couple of months  my Trading Desk Notes have maintained that risk appetite was “dangerously high” and was due for (at least) a correction. I wrote that: Markets are in a blow-off phase...My gut instinct is to fade this price action...but my risk management override says wait...it could get even crazier! The key aspect of market psychology so far this year has been a willingness to aggressively take on risk. I quoted Bob Farrell, “The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.”

I’ve had 2 key reasons why I thought there could be a significant reversal in risk appetite:

  1. Looking at the charts I believed that the stock market “melt up” in January was likely the last leg of a parabolic blow off. The DJIA had quadrupled from the 2009 lows, had rallied 45% since the Trump election, and now the public was “beating down the doors” to buy anything and everything.
  2. The global central banks, which had “underwritten” the 9 year rally in asset prices, were in the process of “changing their ways.”

My short term trading: February was a good month for me as I caught parts of the “correction” in the stock, currency and commodity markets. I started this week short CAD and Euro, and bond puts, and added short gold and short S+P. I closed all of those positions with profits except for the bond puts which I closed for a small loss. I’m flat at the end of the week, but in my managed futures account that Drew manages we remain short CAD and WTI.

The US Dollar rallied to 6 week highs this week but then reversed sharply on Thursday  on “trade war” fears.

The Canadian Dollar broke its relationship with the Euro on Thursday...that is CAD kept falling against the USD while the Euro rallied. I think this points to REAL weakness in CAD...which is now threatening to break below the 7750 lows made last fall. The “trade wars” story has real impact on Canada as it pertains to the Nafta renegotiations. The 2 year interest rate spread is ~45 bp in favor of the US and markets may be anticipating “dovish” comments from the BOC at next week’s meeting. Markets are still pricing a 36% chance that the BOC will raise rates in April...I have my doubts!

Click for Larger Chart


The Yen has been rising steadily since early January and ended this week at its best levels against the USD since Trump’s election. It’s often called a “safe haven” currency but it was rising in January even as the US stock market was soaring...so there’s something else in play...any unwinding of the massive short Yen positioning in the futures markets could accelerate the rally.

WTI has had a very similar chart pattern to the S+P so far this year...rising through January...falling the first 2 weeks of February only to bounce back the next 2 weeks. This week it rallied on Monday along with the stock market and then fell sharply with the stock market Tuesday through Friday.

Click for Larger Chart



Gold & Precious Metals

Silver Investment: The Lowest Risk, Highest Return Potential vs. Stocks & Real Estate

Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSRocco Report

on Monday, 05 March 2018 06:28

One thing I really respect about this analyst, Steve St. Angelo, is that he makes a very clear argument using graphics and fundamentals. One look at the first chart certainly tells you which of Real Estate, the Dow Jones or Silver is in the "low risk" position. A well written, strong argument - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

While silver is completely off the radar to most investors, it will turn out to be one of the best investments to own as the massive amount of leverage in the stock and real estate market evaporates.  Unfortunately, investors, today are no longer capable of recognizing when an asset displays a HIGH or LOW risk.  Thus, fundamental indicators are ignored as the investors continue the insane strategy of “Buying the Dip.”

A prudent investor is able to spot when an asset becomes a high risk and then has the sense to move his or her funds into one that is a lower risk.  However, the majority of investors do not follow this practice as they are caught by surprise when a Market Crash occurs… again and again and again.  Even worse, when investors are shown that the indicators are pointing to assets that are extremely risky, then ignore it and continue business as usual.

Today, complacency has turned investors’ brains into mush.  They are no longer able to discern RIGHT from WRONG.  So, when the market really starts to correction-crash, they will hold on to their stocks waiting for Wall Street’s next BUY THE DIP call.

Regardless, if we can understand the fundamentals, then we would be foolish to keep most of our investment funds in Stock and Real Estate assets.  The following chart follows the KISS Principle – Keep It Simple Stupid:


You don’t need to be a highly-trained financial or technical analyst to spot the HIGH vs. LOW-RISK assets in the chart above.  Hell, you don’t even need to see the figures in the chart.  If we understand that all markets behave in cycles, then it’s common sense that asset prices will peak and decline.  We can plainly see that both Real Estate and Stocks asset values are near their top while the silver price is closer to its bottom.

Thus, assets that are near a top are HIGH RISK, and those near a bottom are LOW RISK.  It’s really that simple.

Now, if we look at each chart separately, we can easily spot which assets will be the BIG LOSERS in the future.  According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve data (FRED), the U.S. Median Home Sales Price of $324,550 is nearly $100,000 higher than the bubble in 2007:



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