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Gold & Precious Metals

Are We Ready For A Gold And Silver Rally?


Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Tuesday, 05 December 2017 07:11

Many of you who follow my analysis have learned quite well how I look at the market. And, those of you who have read me in the past know that I do not view fundamentals as being relevant to determining when we can see a major turn in the metals market. 

In fact, in 2011, the fundamentals for the metals market were exceptionally strong, with most everyone believing in the certainty of gold exceeding the $2,000 mark, just before we began a multi-year pullback. 

Moreover, the fundamentals were terribly weak just as we were hitting the bottom in 2015, with most market participants being certain that gold was about to break below $1,000.

So, I get many emails from followers who forward me other articles they think I will find amusing, especially ones that like to highlight the fundamentals. But, this past week, one statement really caught my eye.

At the start of this particular article, the article writer began with the following sentence:

“Too many technical analysts dismiss fundamentals. True, technicals usually lead fundamentals but understanding the fundamental drivers (when it comes to Gold) can give you an edge.”

Again, for those who read me often, I am quite certain you know what I am about to say. In fact, I even posted this sentence in my trading room at Elliottwavetrader, and asked for comments on this sentence. And, these were some of the comments I received:

"Too many people dismiss B. True, A is usually ahead of B but taking into account B can give you an edge." What? If A is usually ahead of B, then B is usually useless. So his statement makes no sense.”

“Reminds me of a good quote from The Complete Turtle Trader: A technical trader (trend follower) is purchasing quantitative information from a Wall Street fundamental analyst and notices that they both have a number of the same positions open. When he queries the fundamental analyst about this, he receives the reply, "That's true because even with all of our good (fundamental) analysis, if we don't put a trend following component in it, it doesn't do very well."

And, there were many others along the lines of the two I just quoted. I think you get the gist of the point. If one really understands that technicals will lead the fundamentals, what use would there be for something that is lagging? 

To use that which lags in order to make a decision to put your money to work is akin to using a several month delayed price quote.

But, investors have been so indoctrinated to believe that one must invest based upon fundamentals that we have become no different than the masses who were so certain that the world was flat. In fact, R.N. Elliott noted “[i]n the dark ages, the world was supposed to be flat. We persist in perpetuating similar delusions.” 

One has to ask if we really have a skewed view about the importance of fundamentals. I mean, if one recognizes that fundamentals lag technicals, yet place primacy upon fundamentals, are they not simply looking at the market with blinders on? Would you ever drive your car while looking out the back window? Just something to think about.

Price pattern sentiment indications and upcoming expectations



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Gold & Precious Metals

THE BLIND CONSPIRACY: The Gold Market Is Heading Towards A Big Fundamental Change


Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSRocco Report

on Monday, 04 December 2017 06:46

Conspiracy-Image-FIMAGEThe gold market is heading towards a big fundamental change that few are prepared.  While many analysts in the alternative media community suggest that the gold price is manipulated due to Fed and Central bank intervention, there is another more obscure rationale that is the likely culprit.  I call it, “The Blind Conspiracy.”

But, before I get into the details of this Blind Conspiracy, there are a few very troubling developments in the alternative media community that I would like to discuss first.  The bulk of these concerns has to do with the increasing amount of faulty analysis and misinformation as well as the peddling of lousy conspiracy theories on the internet.

Why is this a big problem?  Because a lot of readers are being misguided as to the true nature of the serious predicament we are facing.  Half of the emails that I receive are from readers who are bringing up doubts based on other analysts’ faulty analysis and misinformation.  Thus, it takes a great deal of effort to provide the real facts and data to counteract the damage being done by certain individuals, even those with good intentions.

Furthermore, an increasing number of so-called precious metals analysts have switched over to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, believing that gold and silver will no longer function as monetary metals.  However, some of these analysts suggest that silver will still be valuable because it will be used as critical raw material in advanced products in our new HIGH-TECH WORLD.  I find this idea of a future modern high-tech world quite amusing when we can’t even maintain the failing complex infrastructure we are currently using.



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Bonds & Interest Rates

The Boom Continues


Posted by Steve Saville - The Speculative Investorvestor

on Monday, 04 December 2017 06:31

The US economic boom is still in progress, where a boom is defined as a period during which monetary inflation and the suppression of interest rates create the false impression of a growing/healthy economy*. We know that it is still in progress because the gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields — our favourite proxy for the US yield curve — continues to shrink and is now the narrowest it has been in 10 years.

yieldcurve 241117

Reiterating an explanation we’ve provided numerous times in the past, an important characteristic of a boom is an increasing desire to borrow short to lend/invest long. This puts upward pressure on short-term interest rates relative to long-term interest rates, which is why economic booms are associated with flattening yield curves. The following chart shows the accelerating upward trend in the US 2-year yield that was the driving force behind the recent sharp reduction in the 10yr-2yr yield spread.



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Timing & trends

Now try telling me that charts don't work


Posted by Clive Maund

on Monday, 04 December 2017 06:25

I would no sooner invest without using charts than I would drive down a freeway at 90 miles per hour with my head in a blindfold or a brown paper bag. What would you think if the Weatherman came on the TV and instead of showing you a chart, presented you with a table of data? – or you boarded a plane with the windows shuttered and the Captain explaining “Oh – I don’t need to see out – my instruments provide me with all the information I need to fly the plane.”? Charts are about perspective and proportion, and without them you’ve got none. 

By the time you are done reading this review you will, or should be if you are reasonable, be left in no doubt about the awesome money making power of charts, properly used. On clivemaund.com our investing strategy is simple, we go where the action is. Until 2011 some of the best gains were to be made in the Precious Metals space and we tracked that sector closely during its bullmarket. Then it changed and in more recent times the action has shifted to biotech, blockchain and cryptocurrencies, and marijuana, Tech generally and the FANGS etc. Because we go where the action is, that is why we are able to make the big gains you will see set out below on a regular basis. The charts presented below are color coded – blue for Oil, coral for Biotech, green for Marijuana and yellow and white for Blockchain, a sector we are just moving into. Because these charts are largely retrospective the usual indicators appended above and below them have been removed to save space and reduce clutter. Note that clicking on the company name will take you to the most relevant report on its stock on clivemaund.com where the password protection has been removed in order that you are able to open it. Now read on… Biotech & Medical StocksWe just closed a nice trade in Scythian. We spotted that a Double Bottom was forming above its rising 200-day moving average, accompanied by a positive volume pattern, so bought it on a couple of occasions as it marked out the 2nd low of the pattern. Took profits last week after it had arrived at a resistance level in an overbought state… Scythian Biosciences SCYB.V C$6.75 

scyb5month021217

Blockchain StocksAnalytix Insight Inc ALY.V, ATIXF on OTC, C$0.55, C$0.43 Analytix has a very strong chart. We bought it about a week ago as it completed a tight bull Flag, which it then broke out of so that we are now up 28% and holding for further gains. Note the powerfully bullish volume pattern… 



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Currency

Bitcoin achieved what The Gold Market Never Could & Never Will?


Posted by Sol Palha's Tactical Investor

on Monday, 04 December 2017 06:17

here is no absurdity so palpable but that it may be firmly planted in the human head if you only begin to inculcate it before the age of five, by constantly repeating it with an air of great solemnity. Arthur Schopenhauer

 

Gold bottomed in 2002, and it took nine years for its trade to a high of roughly $1900 (September 2011). Contrast that to Bitcoin, in less than 1/3rd of the amount of time it is showing gains of more than 11,000%. It took nine years for Gold to show gains of roughly 700% and Gold has given up a substantial portion of those gains.

bitcoin price Dec 2017

We bailed out of Gold in 2011 for two reasons:



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