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Gold & Precious Metals

Huge Decline In Peru’s Silver Production Suggests Future Supply At Risk


Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Wednesday, 19 April 2017 07:00

The Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining just released their silver production data for February, and it was a whopper to the downside.  Actually, I was quite surprised to see how much Peru’s silver production declined versus the same month last year.  Also, Peru’s gold February production took a similar big hit.

According to the Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining data, the country’s silver production fell 12% to 323.1 metric tons (mt) this February versus 367.4 mt the same month last year:

Peru-Silver-Production-Feb-2017

This is a 44 mt decline in one month, nearly 1.5 million oz lost.  Here is the table from the Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining showing various metals production data for February:



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Yield Curve Flattens - Is A Trump Recession Looming?


Posted by Daniel R Moore via Seeking Alpha

on Wednesday, 19 April 2017 06:24

8731391 14925236690357 rId6Summary

Trump's election is a potential game changer for the Keynesian fiscal policy status quo in Washington.

Interest rates spiked higher across the board in late 2016 in anticipation of potential major fiscal policy changes.

Since early March 2017, however, the yield curve has flattened, sometimes an indicator of a looming recession.

In 1949, under similar monetary and fiscal policy market dynamics, the US economy experienced a recession and US stocks fell over 20% in a 12-month time frame.

This article compares and contrasts the current financial market to that faced by Harry Truman in 1949 when the Fed was also raising rates off the zero lower bound.

....continue reading HERE



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Economic Outlook

When Will They Ever Learn?


Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant InvestorInvestor

on Wednesday, 19 April 2017 06:15

dc77ca8b5fb31cb41cd2bbb1145244e8Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Russia, China ……..

In the 1960s Peter, Paul and Mary popularized a song written by Pete Seeger – “Where Have All the Flowers Gone?

The short version is:

Where have all the flowers gone?

Young girls have picked them.

Where have all the young girls gone?

Gone to husbands.

Where have all the husbands gone?

Gone for soldiers.

Where have all the soldiers gone?

Gone to graveyards.

Where have all the graveyards gone?

Gone to flowers.

And repeat. 

When will they ever learn?

Another version of this “cycle of life” is:

Where has all the money gone?



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Timing & trends

Extreme Pessimism indicates market is near inflection point!


Posted by Chris Vermeulen - TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

on Tuesday, 18 April 2017 13:15

Thursday’s, April 13th, 2017, trading displayed some evidence of “exhaustive selling”. It is still trading well above its 200- simple moving day average. The BULLISH RALLY has not stopped.

In identical occurrences, based on historical data, the one-month returns, during which the SPX rallied 15 out of 16 times with a greater than 5-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio. “Emotional selloffs” occur in strong uptrends which have only presented themselves with greater buying opportunities.  This is the predominate case we are facing during this month of April.

Wave A is the first of three waves in the corrective phase. Corrections are almost always more difficult to identify than impulse waves and most investors confuse them as interim corrections. Volume might increase in Wave A and volatility will also rise, although not nearly enough to imply a bottom.

Wave B tends to be the most difficult to identify. The volume of Wave B tends to be lower than that of Wave A. Wave B will consist of three sub waves and should retrace at least .62 percent of Wave A.

Wave C is often very impulsive and marks end of the current corrective phase. Volume may be higher in Wave C than in Wave A. Wave C is made up of five sub waves and terminates beyond the end of Wave A. Some studies suggest that Wave C should not continue beyond 1.618 times Wave A, but this is not a rule

The cart below shows the worst-case scenario based on current analysis. The low put in during the month of March could be in fact a bottom as there was a very small A-B-C correct pattern in March already.

EW1-768x577

The momentum oscillators are now working themselves to the oversold levels.  The SPX is in the midst of its Corrective Wave ‘A-B-C’ that has further to go on the downside.

There is no desire to rally.  It appears that SPX is beginning its’ Wave C and it should see follow thru to the downside the next couple of weeks.  The bond markets and gold markets will continue to have a very short-term run up, trading with a negative correlation to stocks.

What is the ‘McClellan Oscillator’



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Wealth Building Strategies

Get Ready for Inflation! Lumber Logs a 12-Year High


Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 18 April 2017 07:45

COMM-lumber-prices-at-12-year-high-04132017

As if you need more proof that inflation is finally starting to pick up, lumber prices rose to a 12-year high last week, supported mainly by expectations that steep duties will soon be levied on cheap softwood imports from Canada. Lumber futures rose to nearly $415 per thousand board feet last Monday, a level unseen since March 2005, soon after homeownership peaked here in the U.S.

lumber logs a 12 year high
click to enlarge

At issue is a mini-trade war between U.S. and Canadian loggers. For some time now, the American lumber industry has blamed its Canadian counterpart of unfairly dumping lumber in the U.S. that’s far below market value. Now, several factors are pushing timber prices higher. Chief among them are the likelihood of duties being raised at the Canadian border, possibly as early as next month; President Donald Trump’s calls to renegotiate NAFTA; and growing demand for new homes following the housing crisis as consumer optimism improves and millennial buyers finally seem eager to enter the market.

Shares of Canfor Corporation and Western Forest Products, Canada’s number two and number five lumber producers by annual output, have had a good three months, advancing 25.5 percent and 16.8 percent respectively as of April 12. Timberland-owner Weyerhaeuser has also impressed lately.



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