Login

Asset protection

The Curse of Years Ending in Seven


Posted by David Chapman - The Chapman Report

on Monday, 14 August 2017 07:08

Ok, maybe it is not fair to call years ending in seven a curse. But years ending in seven have had a checkered record. Since 1830, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) has recorded nine up years and nine down years ending in seven. Years ending in seven have the second worst year record for the DJI. The leader or, in this case, the biggest loser is years ending in three. Its record is nine up years and ten down years. As to the biggest winner, well, that honour goes to years ending in five with a record of sixteen up years vs. three down years. 

Years ending in seven are the leader in one category. They have the most losses totalling 20% or more. The total is four. 1857 saw the DJI lose 31%, in 1907 the DJI was down 37.7%, in 1917 the DJI dropped 21.7%, and finally in 1937 the DJI fell 32.8%. Years ending in seven have also been, overwhelmingly, associated with stock market panics and crashes. Note the following:

Screen Shot 2017-08-14 at 7.08.31 AM



Read more...

Bonds & Interest Rates

What I Learned at (Economics) Summer Camp


Posted by John Mauldin - Mauldin Economics

on Monday, 14 August 2017 06:56

Will Yellen Stay or Go?
Quantitative Tightening
Consensus Forecasts
Lightning Round
Chicago, Lisbon, San Francisco, Denver, and Lugano

All over America, kids who were fortunate enough to go to summer camp are busy telling mom and dad what they did. Their stories will be suspiciously incomplete, but that’s OK. We know they learned something.

170812-01

Well, I went to camp this summer, too. I go every year, and I always learn more than I can manage to remember. Camp Kotok is an invitation-only gathering of economists, market analysts, fund managers, and a few journalists. It takes place at the historic Leen’s Lodge in Grand Lake Stream, Maine. We fish, talk, eat, drink, and talk some more. It’s a three-day economic thought-fest (and more rich food and wine than is good for me or anyone else at the camp). For me, that’s about as good as life gets.

(Aat the end of the letter in the personal section I’ll describe a typical day at my summer camp. Not exactly arts and crafts and games. Unless poker counts as a game.)

Come along with me as I share some of my main takeaways from the camp and then, in a “lightning round,” touch on on a few various shorter topics.

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors started the event after narrowly escaping death in the World Trade Center on 9/11. It was a way for him and a few friends to get away from the city, appreciate life, and talk about things that matter. Now the gathering has grown to about 50 of us. We meet under the Chatham House Rule, which means we can’t quote each other directly without permission. That helps promote an open exchange of ideas. And it’s definitely open. It is interesting to see the difference in the level of communication in an environment where people are not worried about being quoted when they trot out a new idea they have recently started thinking about. Testing those ideas against one’s peers, who might have different views about the same topic, is a valuable process.

David relaxes the rule for certain parts of the event, and that’s part of what I’ll share with you today. The Saturday night dinner always includes a debate on some contentious issue, with participants who are known to disagree. Martin Barnes from Bank Credit Analystalways moderates. He is one of the few who can quiet that room, with his imposing height, his booming Scottish brogue, and his offbeat sense of biting humor.

This year’s debate topic was the Federal Reserve. Specifically, we discussed the Fed’s future leadership and policies. Both are very much in question right now, and much depends on the answers. Time will tell what happens, but here is what some experts think.

Will Yellen Stay or Go?



Read more...

Gold & Precious Metals

Precious Metals Nearing Breakout


Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Monday, 14 August 2017 06:48

The outlook for precious metals has changed quite a bit over the last month. In early July, Gold and gold stocks were weak and threatening severe breakdowns below key levels such as $1200 Gold and $21 GDX. Those moves reversed course and now Gold and gold stocks are threatening resistance. The prognosis has turned bullish and with the help of a correcting stock market precious metals could build on their recent rebound.

Below we plot the weekly bar chart of Gold which is testing critical resistance in the $1290-$1300 area. Gold could close the week at its highest weekly close in 2017, just weeks after breaking its 2017 uptrend. That early July breakdown proved to be a false break as Gold has been able to rally back up to resistance. Gold has broken the downtrend line since 2011 but the most important resistance is $1300. With a break above $1300, Gold could be on its way to a retest of the 2016 high at $1375.

Aug112017Gold

Turning to the miners, we find that GDX has already broken its downtrend and the 200-day moving average. GDXJ faces strong resistance at $34-$35. Silver has a little ways to go before it can break its downtrend line but its relative strength in recent days is quite encouraging. 



Read more...

Timing & trends

Trump’s Threat of Fire and Fury Fuels Seasonal Breakout in Gold


Posted by Ross Clark - Institutional Advisors

on Monday, 14 August 2017 06:29

We’ve been concerned that a US Dollar rally would have negative implications for gold. But, if today’s news related rally manages to hold through the close it will be the fourteenth time we’ve seen a breakout in gold to a new monthly closing high on the first trading day following August 8th. (Optimum seasonal buys have been July 23rd and August 6th-9th). While only 62% of the July-October seasonal moves in gold have been profitable, a breakout in August adds to the reliability. Tuesday’s low becomes the definitive stop. 

Screen Shot 2017-08-14 at 6.39.31 AM



Read more...

Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week


Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 12 August 2017 08:27

1. You, Your Investments & Isaac Newton's 3rd Law

   by Michael Campbell

Issac Newton's 3rd law states "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction". We have seen this physical law govern the investing world when for example the dot-com bubble rose spectacularily in 4 years to its highs, then reversed and collapsed all the way back to its starting point three years later. Anticipating when a major trend is going to change is arguably the underlying factor determining profits and losses. Newtons 3rd law is also applicable to to society in general, and with the rise in societal extremism the only thing we can count on is that there will be an equal and opposite reaction. The question? How will that reaction manifest.  

...read more HERE

Screen Shot 2017-08-10 at 9.02.31 PM2. Todd Market Forecast: Two Indicators Mark a Trading Bottom

Five day RSI is again oversold and the VIX (volatility index) is above 15. Lately, both levels have marked a trading bottom.

....continue HERE

3. Running Out of Gold: Buyout Phase Imminent

Peak gold production may be at hand, says Tom Beck, founder of Portfolio Wealth Global, and explains why he believes the market has entered the buyout phase.

....read it all HERE



<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>

Page 9 of 2057

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Our Premium Service:
The Inside Edge on Making Money

Latest Update

Take Partial Profits

The nervousness surounding the current bull market remains significant. While there are a number of unsettling indicators suggesting a serious...

- posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Josef Ozzie Jurock Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine