Login

Gold & Precious Metals

Jack Crooks: Gold quiet period about to end?


Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currentsk

on Tuesday, 05 December 2017 11:17

Tuesday 5 December 2017

Quotable

“ It is better for you to be free of fear lying upon a pallet, than to have a golden couch and a rich table and be full of trouble. ”

                                                                                                                                                                  -- Epicurus

Commentary & Analysis

Gold quiet period about to end?

Screen Shot 2017-12-05 at 11.24.44 AM   

From today’s Wall Street Journal:

 “Major U.S. stock indexes have been historically quiet this year. Now, that inactivity has spreadto the precious metals market.  Gold stayed in a $34.50 trading range in November, the lowest gap between its high and low in any month since October 2005, according to the Journal’s Market Data Group.”

We believe this low volatility period is about to change for the shiny metal.    

Gold pays no interest. Thus, gold prices tend to be negatively correlated to interest rates; i.e. higher interest rates and lower gold prices, vice versa. So, if one accepts as probable the following we gleaned from this week’s Barron’s magazine

‘But a major risk for the market is the potential for a rise in US inflation,’ says Mark Haefele, the giant Swiss bank's (UBS) global chief investment officer.  That concern, which could push the Federal Reserve to tighten more aggressively, is shared by Deutsche Bank's strategists, along with the impact of the European Central Bank's tapering of its massive bond purchases.  

Deutsche last week joined the small but growing list of major banks that think the Fed could raise its interest-rate target four times in 2018, in addition to the quarter-point hike that seems to be a lock at the Dec. 12-13 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee."

…then one should be very concerned about the price of gold.  We are short.  In the chart below, you can see a clear negative correlation between gold and US benchmark 10-year yields



Read more...

Banner

Stocks & Equities

Fully Invested Bear


Posted by Jeffrey Saut - Raymond James

on Tuesday, 05 December 2017 08:34

So, we are now in the ebullient month of December and as often stated, “It is tough to put stocks away to the downside in December. It can happen, but it’s pretty rare.” In fact, there were only two years that saw negative returns for the S&P 500 (SPX/2642.22) in December. They were 1936 and 1955, but even then the declines were small.

To be sure, over the last 100 years the average December gain has been 1.55% with a “win rate” of 74% of the time (Chart 1).

810ef4de15f6694047d5a4083724186d

Moreover, ten of the S&P’s macro sectors have experienced positive returns in December. As Bespoke Investment Group notes, “Surprisingly, it has been the high yielding dividend paying sectors that have seen the largest gains with Real Estate, Telecom Services, and Utilities all posting gains of more than 2%.” Worth mention is that last December ALL the macro sectors rallied! Parsing a list of some of the historically best performing stocks in the S&P 500 during the month of December we find the following names from the Raymond James research universe. Each stock screens well on our models and carries a favorable rating from our fundamental analysts: Broadcom (AVGO/$271.56/Strong Buy), Oracle (ORCL/$49.61/Outperform), Valero (VLO/$84.17/Outperform), Red Hat (RHT/$125.26/Outperform), Nvidia (NVDA/$197.68/Outperform), and Mohawk (MHK/$284.82/Strong Buy).

....continue reading HERE



Banner

Real Estate

Three Buy Signals for This Hated Sector


Posted by Chad Shoop - The Edelson Institue - The Edelson Institue

on Tuesday, 05 December 2017 07:28

It seems like investors were writing off the real estate sector entirely.

With the rise of technology used to shop online, work from home and even go to school, real estate has been a hated sector.

But it’s a sector I have been a fan of this year, triggering gains of 15% and 17% in my Pure Income service.

That’s because even though I know the landscape for real estate is changing, I still see the crowds at the malls, the wait times at restaurants and the continued need for hospitals and health care facilities.

So the decline in values recently has looked like an opportunity to me.

But my personal experience or viewpoint doesn’t have anything to do with my recommendation today.

Instead, three separate computer-based buy signals are flashing bullish signals on the real estate sector, and I have a possible triple-digit opportunity for you.

Let me explain.

Three Buy Signals for the Real Estate Sector

Let’s start with the three buy signals on the sector before I give you the opportunity.

The first is the most basic, a price chart of the SPDR Real Estate Select Sector ETF (NYSE: XLRE).

shoopchart1



Read more...

Banner

Wealth Building Strategies

The True Meaning of Bitcoin's 'Success'


Posted by Michael Ballanger- Streetwise Reports

on Tuesday, 05 December 2017 07:21

In the year 301 AD, the Roman unit of barter was the denarius, which had originally been 95% pure silver when introduced by Augustus at the end of the first century BC but by the time of Diocletian's rule, it had moved to 50,000 denarii to a pound of gold. Ten year later, it took 120,000 denarii to buy a pound of gold and by 337, that figure was 20,000,000. What had occurred in a mere 400 years was that a slow and agonizing erosion in the purchasing power of the Roman currency accelerated to full fiat disintegration and that complete and total disregard for the denarius was attributed as one of the underlying causes of the Fall of the Roman Empire. Nothing was more evident in the underlying rot permeating Roman society, economics and national security than the refusal by the Barbarian armies to accept anything but gold as payment for their leaving the Roman legions alone. Rejection of the currency of the Roman Empire was complete and irreversible.

image001

One of the omens of impending inflationary spirals is the tendency of those individuals controlling large swaths of wealth to reject any form of "savings" in the form of bank deposits or interest-bearing certificates. They choose instead to jettison cash or cash-equivalent instruments because of a loss of faith in the ability of local currencies to retain purchasing power. We have seen this over the ages from Weimar Germany to Zimbabwe and now Venezuela, and where gold and land were generally the tried-and-true assets of choice for those wishing to protect their wealth from the insanity and irresponsibility of governments, today in 2017 with the advent of technology and its attendant curses and wonders, the wunderkind of today have actually created their own receptacle for frightened wealth and that is the true meaning of Bitcoin and its incredible "success."

When the chief technology engineers sat down ten years ago after watching the global bankers vaporize the financial system and then turn right around and "save" it through a massive and globally coordinated counterfeiting racket, they determined that anywhere government has control over money (as in the banking system), there could be no certainty of anything responsible or prudent whereas there was absolute certainty that corruption would exist at a systemic level. Therein lies the reason for the invention of blockchain technologies and the best-performing "asset" of 2017, Bitcoin, which is ahead an astonishing 1,000% year-to-date spurring the creation of hundreds and hundreds of "wannabes" being trotted out as heir apparents.

Traditionally, investors moved to the old saws, gold and silver, as safe havens for decomposing currencies and as recently as this year, we have witnessed the efficacy of wealth preservation as Venezuelan citizens that moved their savings to U.S. dollars from the bolivar avoided the most hideous of outcomes as the bolivar collapsed. This is precisely what occurs when confidence sinks to zero and hoarding of staples escalates. 



Read more...

Banner

Timing & trends

Gold Looks Like a Bargain Just in Time for Christmas


Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 05 December 2017 07:13

COMM-gold-looks-like-a-bargain-just-in-time-for-christmas-12012017

One of the most compelling and engaging presenters at the Precious Metals Summit in London last month was Ronald-Peter Stöferle, a managing partner at Liechtenstein-based asset management company Incrementum. Incrementum, as you may know, is responsible for publishing the annually-updated, widely-read “In Gold We Trust” report,which I’ve cited a number of times before.

During his presentation, Stöferle shared the fact that his wife prefers to do her Christmas decoration shopping in January. When he asked her why she did this—Christmas should be the last thing on anyone’s mind in January—she explained that everything is half-off. A bargain’s a bargain, after all.

This is very smart. Here we are several days before Christmas, and demand for ornaments, lights and other decorations is red-hot, so be prepared to pay premium prices if you’re doing your shopping now. But mere hours after the Christmas presents have been unwrapped and Uncle Hank has fallen asleep on the couch with a glass of boozy eggnog, stores will begin slashing prices to get rid of inventory.

Gold bullion and mining stocks are currently in the “January” phase, so to speak, according to Stöferle. The Barron’s Gold Mining Index, which goes all the way back to 1938, recently underwent its longest bear market ever, between April 2011 and January 2016. And as I already shared with you, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported last month that gold demand fell to an eight-year low in the third quarter.

Barrons gold mining index bear markets since 1942
click to enlarge

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is,” Warren Buffett famously said. “The time to get interested is when no one else is.”

The same logic applies to Christmas decorations, gold and mining stocks.

Gold on Track for Its Best Year Since 2010



Read more...

Banner

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>

Page 9 of 2135

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Josef Ozzie Jurock Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine