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Timing & trends

The Tale of Two America's...Urban Rise, Rural Demise, Rationale to Hyper-Monetize


Posted by Econimica

on Thursday, 12 October 2017 06:04

In brief, six states are currently in outright depopulation.  Another sixteen states are experiencing declining under 65yr/old populations only offset by surging 65+yr/old populations, and somewhere between 2/3rds and 3/4ths of all counties in America are likewise suffering one or the other. 

America is in the midst of an ongoing and accelerating shift in demographics and population growth.  These trends, long in place, are at a tipping point that are simultaneously driving urban economic growth (plus associated asset bubbles) and rural economic declines (plus associated asset collapses).  The spin up and spin down are mutually interconnected, the result of movement in a zero sum game.  But for select regions (and rural America in general), there is a surging quantity of sellers and a dwindling quantity and quality of buyers that will result in the primary asset of most Americans, their home, transitioning from an asset to an outright liability.

Many will point to record stock market valuations as an indicator of positive economic and/or business activity to refute my claims.  Instead, I argue it is the Federal Reserve and federal government policies, in place as a quasi "life support" for the negatively affected regions and rural America at large, that are driving the asset valuation explosions of equities (chart below, representing all stocks publicly traded in the US) and urban housing.  I will outline why the situation in the affected regions will only get worse and thus the Fed believes its hands are tied.  Why any amount of normalization will only induce localized collapses across much of the nation.  The total market capitalization ($ value) of the Wilshire has nearly doubled the acknowledged "bubbles" of 2000 and 2008 and is likely to continue rising further, precisely due to the worsening issues I detail below.

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....continue reading HERE



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Real Estate

Canada 6-City Housing & the Plunge-O-Meter


Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Thursday, 12 October 2017 05:44

chart-canada 10 orig

The chart above shows the average detached housing prices for Vancouver*, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto*, Ottawa* and Montréal* (the six Canadian cities with over a million people each) as well as the average of the sum of VancouverCalgary and Toronto condo (apartment) prices on the left axis. ​On the right axis is the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of MLS® Residential Sales across Canada (one month lag).​

​In September 2017 Toronto metro SFD prices found support after 5 months of selling below the March 2017 spike and peak price. The 2017 price gains have vanished. Vancouver prices defy gravity in all residential sectors with another HPI hat trick; FOMO and speculative pricing is still on. 

....read more HERE

also:

Brian Ripley's Plunge-o-meter which tracks the dollar and percentage losses from the peak and projects when prices might find support. HERE



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Energy & Commodities

Coal Fueled Teslas


Posted by Larry LaBorde

on Wednesday, 11 October 2017 06:49

eia-electricitybyfuel-2040-projectionSeveral countries are making proclamations that state all new cars shall be electric by a certain date.  Who decided on electric cars?  I know they sound “clean” but where does that electricity come from?

About 30.4% of electricity in the United States is generated from coal.  About 19.7% is generated from nuclear.  So over 50% of the US power is from coal and nuclear.  The remaining is as follows:  natural gas = 34%, hydro = 6.5%, wind = 5.6%, biomass = 1.5%, solar = <1% plus other misc. sources.

While there are more engineers alive today than all during history there are several problems with electric cars that have to be overcome.  Of course everyone knows that batteries are a problem.  They are heavy, do not hold enough charge for long trips, are expensive and they are a problem to dispose of at the end of their service life.  The electric motors themselves require rare earth magnets for high efficiency.  You can induce an electric field without them but the efficiency suffers.  Most rare earth magnets are mined in China.



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Timing & trends

Why Spain And Europe Must Face Down Catalonia


Posted by Clive Maund

on Wednesday, 11 October 2017 06:41

Since the ballot in Catalonia over a week ago, which the Spanish authorities, contrary to the spirit of democracy, did their best to disrupt by the use of brute force, as any good old fashioned fascist State would, by sending in the "Brownshirts", the mainstream media have gone to work in an effort to present the pro-independence Catalans as a bunch of fringe wing nutters trying to turn the clock back to the Middle Ages. The pro-Spain demonstrations at the weekend were given big media coverage and made to look like an overwhelming endorsement of the Spanish State, rather like the "huge crowds" when Saddam Hussein's statue was pulled down in Iraq after the invasion, which turned out to be just a few hundred people herded into a square and then orchestrated and made to look like a large crowd by the careful use of camera angles. Of course, the pro-Spain crowds were big - what do you expect in a city the size of Barcelona even if only 30% of population are in favor of continued union with Spain? Having sent in the police with orders to act as thugs to disrupt the vote, the Spanish parliament than arbitrarily dismissed the vote as invalid because "only" 45% or so of the population voted, which was of course the result of their interference, and you don't have to be a genius to extrapolate that if about 90% of those who did vote were in favor of Catalonia becoming a separate State, if even 80% of citizens had voted, there would still be an overwhelming majority in favor of separation. 

cathedral

The Spanish parliament invoked the constitution in an attempt to deprive Catalonians of their democratic rights, and have used it as justification for violent suppression with the thinly veiled threat of the further use of force if the Catalonians persist, such as the arrest of their leader, cutting off of banks etc. The Spanish King and the European Union weighed in on the side of the Spanish government, as one would expect. 

It is easy to explain what is going on here and what is likely to follow if the Catalonians do not back down. The Spanish government, having power over Catalonia, the richest region is Spain, does not want to lose a valuable part of its constituency or the tax revenues it generates, ditto the Spanish royal family. As for the European Union, they don’t care about the ordinary citizens of Europe and simply want to maintain and expand their power over them, and continue to live the high life on their taxes, with their massive salaries and privileged shopping areas etc. They therefore don’t want countries leaving the EU, or regions breaking off and forming separate countries, over which they might exert less or no power – they are doing their best to scupper the Brexit, by procrastinating and exploiting weak politicians who are possibly being bought off to water it down. A big reason that the Brexit vote was allowed to proceed at all was that the pro camp were not expected to win – but they did and the margin of victory was much less decisive than the Catalan vote.Catalan independence – which way will it go?...

What we can therefore expect to see if the Catalans go ahead and declare independence is that the full force of the Spanish State – and the Spanish royal family and the European Union - will be brought to bear on Catalonia to make it regret that it ever tried to go it alone. They are going to make an example of Catalonia as a warning to the many other regions in Europe that are thinking of taking a similar line to Catalonia of what is likely to happen to them if they try it. Thus we can expect them to possibly try to arrest and imprison the Catalan leader, or perhaps arrange an unfortunate accident for him, and crush any revolt that follows by means of brute force – sending in the Brownshirts again. If they decide to adopt a softer approach, they will resort to blockading Catalonia and tearing it down economically – either way they are determined to make Catalonia pay a heavy price if it goes ahead and declares independence. Big banks, in league with the elites, will make problems for Catalonia and France has already stated that it will not recognize Catalonia – so much for democracy! Knowing this, it is possible that Catalonia will kneel before the powers in Madrid at the 11th hour and sue for compromise, meaning that it won’t fully leave Spain. Whichever way it goes, both Madrid and the EU will be able to proclaim “Behold, the price of Treason!” and other States and regions will think twice before they dare to challenge the status quo as Catalonia has done. They haven’t spent decades or even centuries gaining power over the local peasantry to go handing it back without a fight, and in the last resort they are much more heavily armed, although that doesn’t necessarily guarantee victory as the Vietnam War amply demonstrated. Thus what happens in Catalonia has major implications not just for Spain but for Europe and for the entire world. Barcelona photos by Maund. 

Posted at 10.35 am EDT on 10th October 17.



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Energy & Commodities

THE UNKNOWN FUNDAMENTAL: This Will Push The Silver Price Up Much Higher


Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Wednesday, 11 October 2017 06:36

Precious metals investors need to understand the coming silver price surge will not occur due to the typical supply and demand forces.  While Mainstream analysts continue to generate silver price forecasts based on supply and demand factors, they fail to include one of the most important key factors.  Unfortunately, the top paid Wall Street analysts haven’t figured it out that supply and demand forces don’t impact the silver price all that much.

For example, I continue to read articles by analysts who suggest that industrial demand will impact the silver price in the future.  They believe that rising industrial silver demand should push prices higher while lower demand does the opposite.  However, according to my research, I don’t see any real correlation.  So, why should industrial demand impact the silver price in the future when it hasn’t in the past?

If we look at the following chart, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation between global industrial silver demand and the silver price:

Global-Industrial-Silver-Consumption-vs-Silver-Price



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