Real Estate

Canada 6-City Housing & the Plunge-O-Meter

Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Friday, 13 January 2017 06:00

chart-canada orig

​The chart above shows the average detached housing prices for Vancouver*, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto*, Ottawa* and Montréal* (the six Canadian cities with over a million people each) as well as the average of the sum of VancouverCalgary and Toronto condo (apartment) prices on the left axis. ​On the right axis is the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of MLS® Residential Sales across Canada (one month lag).

....for larger chart and analysis go HERE



Mike's Content

They Call Him “The Forecaster” For Good Reason

Posted by Michael Campbell

on Thursday, 12 January 2017 12:13

MC horz cropped - 2013- The Italians voted No in what is potentially a monumental referendum
- The Austrian rejected the far right anti-EU candidate in the December presidential election
- Donald Trump won the US presidential race
- The UK voted to leave the European Union
My point - Armstrong Economics has the only computer model that predicted every one of these events.
And knowing Martin Armstrong and his work for over 33 years I can tell you it’s not a fluke. I have a son who’s been managing money in London and the one piece of advice I gave him was that he didn’t have to invest in everything Marty recommended, but I warned him he should never bet against him.
You may have heard Marty on the air with me October 22 when he predicted that Trump would be the next president. It didn’t seem likely at the time. It was two days after Time Magazine had Trump on the cover in a total meltdown – but then the FBI announced the renewed investigation into Hillary Clinton’s classified emails sent over her private server – and presto the race was on again.  I’m not commenting on the election – I commenting on the accuracy of his model.
Flashback to the World Outlook Financial Conference in 2013 where Marty predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine in the immediate aftermath of the Olympics in late February, 2014. Again, the model was correct.
I could go on but allow me to share one more story. I’m not sure if you’ve seen the documentary about Marty called The Forecaster.  I remember sitting watching it for the first time, and up comes a scene where the interviewer looks at a computer slide from our 1998 World Outlook Conference. The slide read:
1998 Collapse of Russia
1999 Low in oil and gold
2000 technology collapse (like railroads in 1907)
2002 Bottom US share market
2007 Real Estate Bubble – Oil hits $100
2009 Start of Sovereign Debt Crisis
2011 – 2015 Japan Economic Decline
Euro begins to crack due to debt crisis
2015.75 – Sovereign Debt Big Bang
I sat there dumbfounded and as soon as the movie was over I phoned Grant Longhurst, who produces the Outlook Conference, and asked him to go to the archives and get a copy of the slide. There it was…absolutely amazing.  
I could go on chronicling Armstrong’s computer model’s incredible record of prediction including calling the massive drop in gold, the move to new highs in the stock market, the return to dominance of the US dollar and the relentless fall in the euro. The point is that when Marty’s model points to an important date I pay attention.  As do money managers, government officials and investors from around the world.
His understanding of history, currency movements and the interaction of the widest range of variables on different investments is second to none. And you get to hear from Marty at the 2017 World Outlook Financial Conference not once - but twice!
The Coming Year
I have literally never been more interested in hearing what Marty has to say. Every major trend we’ve been predicting on MoneyTalks and at the World Outlook Financial Conference is in full force headlined by a decreasing level of confidence in government.
The probability of that trend reversing itself is extremely low. On the contrary, the anti-establishment trend is accelerating - but the question is how will stocks, bonds, gold, commodities, the loonie and other currencies react.  I want to hear Marty’s take, which is just one of the reasons that I’m encouraging you to attend the World Outlook Financial Conference –CLICK HERE to order. Marty will join us from Princeton (or London or Tampa) – on Friday night for a special segment that specifically deals with the debt crisis, the dollar and gold.
Then on Saturday afternoon he will do another segment on where he sees stocks, interest rates and oil going.  And you know I’ll have ask him where he sees the greatest money making opportunity and the biggest danger.
But That’s Not All
While I’m writing today about Martin Armstrong, the complete group of keynote speakers is equally impressive.  Let’s start with two words – Jim Dines …the legend…enough said.  I’m also looking forward to hearing James Thorne, Mark Leibovit , Don Vialoux, Ozzie Jurock  and of course Ryan Irvine, who will present the 2017 World Outlook Conference Small Cap Portfolio (last year’s was up over 30%).
I hope to see you there on Friday, February 3rd and Saturday, February 4th, 2017.  Our goal is make a huge difference to your financial well being and make 2017 your best year ever – and I have complete confidence that the Outlook Conference features the people to do it.
P.S.   Getting the chance to hear Marty is one of the best reasons to bring a younger person to the conference. It will be an amazing eye opener that he or she won’t get at university or the mainstream media. Student tickets are FREE when you purchase your own general admission pass.

P.P.S.   Can't attend in person? Our four camera video crew produces HD videos of all the keynote speakers, panels and intros including their charts and presentations. We guarantee to have the videos uploaded for viewing online within 48 hours of the Conference and you have unlimited access for a minimum of 6 months. CLICK HERE to order the video subscription.


Timing & trends

Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

Posted by John Winston - ActiveTraders.com

on Thursday, 12 January 2017 09:18

My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets.  Many traders use and trade the VIX as a measurement of volatility.  The VIX is a measurement of the expected market volatility over the next 30 days.  As the VIX rises, traders expect larger and more volatile price swings.  As the VIX declines, traders expect smaller and more narrow price swings.

Currently, the VIX is near historical low levels and has recently past a critical cycle midpoint.


One can see from my cycle analysis, I am tracking to cycle events; a longer term top-to-top cycle event and a smaller bottom-to-top cycle event.  I call these dual-phase and single-phase cycle events, respectively.

This analysis tells me we recently past a single-phase bottom cycle (near Nov 30th) and are expecting a dual-phase top cycle event near Feb 17th.  Given the expected opportunity to retest the VIX high channel, the potential price move in the SSO would relate to a 11%~16.5% price swing (approx) – or larger.  The dark blue downward VIX channel is a boundary that we would expect the VIX move to attempt to reach.  It could blow past this level and develop a much larger price correction in the US and Global markets but lets just focus on one target at a time for now.

Now, let’s take a look as how this relates on the SSO chart.



Gold & Precious Metals

The bullish case for gold in 2017

Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 12 January 2017 08:18

You could say gold miners struck gold in 2016. The group, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, finished the year up an amazing 55 percent, handily beating all other asset classes shown below.

screen shot 2017-01-11 at 100559 am

Miners were followed by commodities at 25 percent and silver at 15 percent. Gold finished up 8.6 percent, its first positive year since 2012, when it gained 7.1 percent. (Keep your eyes peeled for our forthcoming annual periodic table of commodity returns, one of our perennially popular pieces!)

I find it curious that many in the financial media continue to have a bias against gold, even though it generated better returns in 2016 than 10-year Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, which performed half as well. And when it was up as much as 28 percent in the summer, they still didn’t have anything positive to say, arguing it had gone up too much.

(Gold traders, on the other hand, have a much different opinion about the metal right now. A group of traders recently surveyed by Bloomberg revealed they are the most bullish on goldsince the end of 2015, soon before it rallied in its best first half of the year since 1974. The traders cited geopolitical concerns, both in the U.S. and Europe, as well as stronger demand in 2017.)

And isn’t it interesting that the same media figures who are biased against gold are usually the same ones who seem to have only disparaging things to say about Brexit and President-elect Donald Trump? What they don’t realize is that if Brexit and Trump succeed, so too do the U.K. and the U.S. Are they hoping Brexit and Trump will fail so they can be proved right?

The smart people realize personal politics must be put aside. Despite supporting Hillary Clinton during the primaries, Warren Buffett now says he is behind the president-elect—because he knows that if the U.S. does well, he does well too. Despite campaigning hard against Trump, President Barack Obama says now we should all be rooting for Trump, regardless of our politics.

Negative Real Rates Should Drive Gold Prices



Stocks & Equities

Stock Trading Alert: S&P 500 Trades Close To Record High - Topping Pattern Or Just Consolidation?

Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 12 January 2017 08:14

Stock Trading Alert originally sent to subscribers on January 12, 2017, 6:54 AM.

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.3% and 0.5% on Wednesday, extending their short-term consolidation, as investors reacted to economic data releases, U.S. President-Elect press conference, among others. All three major stocks market indexes continue to trade along their all-time highs. The S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its Friday's new record high of 2,282.10, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average trades close to round resistance level of 20,000. The technology Nasdaq Composite has reached new record high on Tuesday. Will the market extend its year-long medium-term uptrend even further before some more meaningful downward correction? The next possible resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,300 mark. On the other hand, the nearest support level is at around 2,260, marked by last week's consolidation. The next support level is at 2,230-2,240, marked by recent local low. We can see a new long-term high within almost eight-year-long bull market from 2009 multi-year of 666.8. However, the index remains within its month-long consolidation. It continues to trade along its medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:


Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.2-0.3%, as investors take profits off the table. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.1-0.4% so far. Investors will now wait for the Initial Claims number announcement at 8:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, following an overnight move down. It retraces some of its yesterday's rally from support level at around 2,255-2,260. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an intraday downtrend. Overall, the market extends its last week's consolidation along the level of 2,260-2,265. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,275, marked by local high. On the other hand, the next support level is at 2,230-2,240, marked by previous local lows. Is this a topping pattern before downward correction of the November - December rally? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. The futures contract trades along its recent local lows, as the 15-minute chart shows:



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