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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week The Week


Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 18 March 2017 08:05

1. One of the Most Effective Trading Tools for Investors

The study of cycles. Quantified and cataloged historical cycles stretching back hundreds and even thousands of years. Combined with cyclical pattern recognition across hundreds of markets and individual securities.

....read more HERE

43933 c2. Fanaticism, Stock Market Crash 2017 or Continuation of Bull Market

Not too long ago this bull market was one of the most hated in history; that no longer appears to be the case.

....continue HERE

 

3. Largest New Discovery of Oil in USA - Fed Raises Rates Markets Rally

    by Martin Armstrong

A major discovery of oil has been made in Alaska of 1.2 billion barrels. The largest find of conventional oil for 30 years on US territory.

"The Fed’s forecasts have moved in the direction of tightening, and despite what they say publicly, the most serious stimulus is rising stock prices"

...continue reading HERE



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Energy & Commodities

Wall Street Bullish On Oil Prices Despite Saudi Warnings


Posted by OilPrice.com

on Friday, 17 March 2017 07:58

7783ed8eb04ea4fe06e9fc150dee0211Oil prices have given up some of the gains achieved since the OPEC deal was agreed to in late November, and confidence in the buoyancy of crude prices is starting to falter. There are plenty of reasons why: U.S. shale is coming back; OPEC cuts led to higher prices in December, but have had little effect since then; crude and refined product inventories are still extraordinarily high; and speculative bets are looking overly optimistic at this point.

But the major investment banks tracking oil markets are surprisingly steadfast in their predictions that the market is proceeding steadily...

....continue reading HERE

...related:

Martin Armstrong on: Largest New Discovery of Oil in USA



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Personal Finance

Stock Exchange: Can Humans Compete with High Frequency Traders?


Posted by Jeff Miller - Dash of Insight

on Friday, 17 March 2017 07:53

the-dark-pool-high-frequency-tradingMany individual investors have been frustrated by the growing prominence of High Frequency Trading. Complicated algorithms can process new information and react in fractions of a second. It sounds intimidating, and in some sense, it is. Individual Investors would be poorly suited for direct competition.

Instead, stick to what the market is giving you. The connections made by these programs are often spurious – totally unrelated to the fundamentals of a given business. This is intentional. After all, they’re after a quick buck rather than a long-term investment.

For that reason, a stock being walloped for frivolous story in the 24-hour news cycle may present an attractive buying opportunity. It all comes down to the individual investor’s process and commitment to their goals.

....continue reading HERE



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Currency

A Look at the Yield Curve and Why the Fed Is Raising Rates


Posted by Matthew Kerkhoff via Dow Theory Letters

on Friday, 17 March 2017 07:18

All attention is once again on Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve this week, as the FOMC meets to determine whether an interest rate hike is warranted.

At this point, with Fed Funds futures prices pointing toward a 95% chance of a rate hike, an increase to the federal funds rate is a near certainty. But the implications and consequences of a rate hike are less so. Let’s dig into that further.

One thing I’ve noticed in speaking to investors is that there is often an inclination to group all interest rates together. When they hear about the Fed “raising rates,” many assume that interest rates across the board, for nearly everything, will rise. This couldn’t be further from the truth and warrants more explanation.

Interest rates come in all shapes, sizes and most importantly, maturities. That is, the length of the term over which money is borrowed, and therefore accrues interest.

Take US Treasuries as an example. If you want to loan the US government money, they’ll pay you a different interest rate based on the term of the loan. You can see today’s pricing for a few select maturities in the table below:

01

If we take these maturities and their respective interest rates and plot them on a chart, we end up with what’s known as the yield curve. You can see this as the red line in the chart below.



Read more...

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Gold & Precious Metals

Is Silver a Better Value than Gold Right Now?


Posted by JS Kim

on Friday, 17 March 2017 07:09

silver-bullionIs silver underpriced compared to gold? Let’s take a look at the facts. Silver currently is $17.28 a troy ounce and gold currently is $1225.66 a troy ounce, meaning the gold: silver price ratio is 71:1. Of course these are spot prices, which don’t match up with actual physical prices, so let’s take a look at the prices of real gold and silver, not paper gold and silver.

This morning, the lowest price of a 10-oz gold bar I could find on one dealer’s site per 1-oz of gold was $1,251.29. For silver, the lowest price of a 10-oz silver bar per 1-oz of silver was $18.16. This ratio of gold: silver price still is an enormous 69:1, meaning that you can choose to either buy 10 troy ounces of gold, or for the same dollar amount, purchase 690 ounces of silver.

Some people state that Central Bankers don’t care about the price of silver and they only care about controlling the price of gold, but this statement is just flat out wrong, in my opinion. If Central Bankers didn’t care so much about controlling the price of silver, then they wouldn’t flood the market with boatloads of silvers futures contracts to suppress the price of silver as they do with gold, during the periods they create rapid declines in the prices of these two precious metals. Since we know the mechanisms by which they create these waterfall declines in paper markets (as I’ve discussed these mechanisms extensively in the past and provided documented proof with Nanex provided data), there is no argument that Central Bankers are concerned with controlling the price of silver as well as the price of gold.

Most people look at the paper price of silver and if it is falling, they mistakenly believe that physical silver is not a good buy because a falling price means too much supply and not enough demand. The supply and demand assumption is true, but only true of the paper market where hundreds more paper silver weight is traded than actually physically exists. So then people turn to physical silver prices, and if physical silver prices are falling, they assume this also means too much physical supply and not enough demand, and conclude that physical silver is not a good buy either. However, physical silver prices only fall when paper silver prices are raided by bankers, because bankers have set up a false system that ties physical prices to paper prices that works spectacularly well for them for now. However, there will come a time when physical silver prices actually reflect what is happening with physical supply of silver and physical demand of silver versus the supply and demand determinants of paper silver markets.

....read the entire article HERE



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