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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week


Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 14 January 2017 09:03

1. Gold’s fate as Western society cracks apart …

   by Larry Edelson

Right now, gold is still caught in a trading range, but with a long-term bias toward exploding higher over the next few years to at least $5,000 an ounce.

...read more HERE

2. Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

 by John Winston

My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets. 

....continue HERE

3. The 27 most important finance books ever written

"In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none," Charlie Munger, the vice chairman at Berkshire Hathaway, once said.

With that in mind, we've highlighted 27 classic works that every Wall Streeter should read.

....continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

Prepare For Bearish News As OPEC Meets Next Week


Posted by James Hyerczyk via Oilprice.com

on Friday, 13 January 2017 13:02

It’s been an up and down week for crude oil futures with the price action playing out as expected. Going into the new year, we were looking for a choppy, two-sided traded largely because of the uncertainty regarding compliance with the OPEC/Non-OPEC plan to cut production, trim supply and return price stability to the market. 

On the upside, we expected prices to be capped by rising U.S. production, while on the downside, prices were expected to be supported by reports that countries who had agreed to limit production would announce compliance with the plan. Based the price action this week, we can conclude that we’ve seen a little of both. 

Weekly West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil 

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been sideways for the last four weeks. A trade through $56.24 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $44.49 will change the trend to down. 

Given the average weekly range, it’s pretty safe to say the uptrend is safe next week. 

The major 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $50.69 to $54.25. The market is currently straddling this zone and to be specifically, it is straddling the Fibonacci level at $54.25. 

Based on the price action since December 16, the direction of March Crude Oil next week will be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at $54.25. 

fa7978b6-dbab-4e3c-a02c-aef0b7f22998

 

click image for larger view

Bearish Scenario



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Energy & Commodities

These New Numbers Suggest A Big Year Coming In This Oil Sub-Sector


Posted by Pierce Points

on Friday, 13 January 2017 08:09

Here's one of the most important charts we might see in oil and gas this year. New this week from industry watchdog Wood Mackenzie -- showing how many offshore petroleum projects will likely see final investment decisions (FIDs) during 2017.

oilgas

Wood Mackenzie sees a major surge coming this year in investment decisions on offshore oil and gas projects

There are a few important things to note here. First, approvals of new petroleum projects were running strong between 2007 and 2014 -- with the blue bar on the left showing how FIDs during this period averaged 40 projects per year.



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Stocks & Equities

Will the Stock Market Bull Continue to Charge or is it time to sell the news


Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Friday, 13 January 2017 07:55

For of all sad words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these: ''It might have been!''

John Greenleaf Whittier

For a long time, our theme was to view all sharp pullbacks through a bullish lens as the trend based on our trend indicator was trading firmly in bullish territory.  Secondly, onecritical psychological component was in our favour too- the masses were either bearish or they cursed this market from the sidelines (neutral camp); hence the slogan the most hated bull market in history.    We must deter for a second by stating that a mild or brutal correction comes down to what level you embraced this market. If you embraced this Stock Market Bull in the early stages from 2009 -2011, then a mild correction would seembrutal or back breaking in comparison to someone who just jumped into the market. A 15-20% correction would knock the socks out of them, but for you, it would appear to be nothing but a blip; this is why we have consistently stated that the best time to open long positions when the masses are in a state of despair.   

Having said that what does the future hold?

Towards the end of last year around Dec, we stated that we were getting a tad bit nervous as the crowd had started to embrace this bull market. Up until the Trump win, which we saw as a bullish event for the markets, while most experts viewed it as a death omen, the masses were either bearish or sitting on the sidelines. Bullish sentiment was generally below 40%, and the combined score of the individuals in the bearish and neutral camp was almost always above 55% and in most cases above 65%.  After Trump had won the markets experienced an initial shock but recouped twice as fast as they did with Brexit and never looked back since.  During this monstrous rally, the sentiment gradually started to improve, and for the past 11 weeks, the percentage of individuals in the bullish camp hasalways been above the 40% mark. On three occasions in the past 11 weeks, the bullish sentiment soared above the 50% mark something we had not experienced even once over the past 30 months.   As we pay close attention to the masses, this had to be treated as a significant development. 

Anxiety Index Jan 2017



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Currency

Inflation Is Rearing Its Head Everywhere, And Now In Germany - The Implications For The U.S. Dollar And Euro Relationship


Posted by Robert P. Balan - Seeking Alpha

on Friday, 13 January 2017 06:23

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Summary

  • Latest Eurozone data indicate a substantial jump in inflation in Germany in December , eliciting calls that ECB president Mario Draghi, end his ultra-loose policy and raise the policy rate.
  • The reality is that with energy costs rising quickly, the strong disinflationary pulse that the globe had seen in 2015-2016 has been neutralized. The deflation meme is dead.
  • The overwhelming impact of rate differentials still favor the USD, but there comes a time when significantly higher inflation rates in the US vs. Row starts to hurt the currency.
  • The universal outlook of higher crude oil prices in the medium term has the potential effect of limiting future USD gains, if not weakening it outright against the euro.
  • Our short-term outlook is for the US Dollar to strengthen until mid-February, after which the US currency should weaken significantly against the euro and other major currencies.

...read more HERE

 

...related from Jack Crooks:

The Fed’s Fake News: Inflation Risks. Buy bonds!



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