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Stocks & Equities

Market Update - Intermission


Posted by Ed Carlson - Seattle Technical Advisors

on Wednesday, 16 August 2017 06:45

Last week’s Market Update – Showtime! – announced that the time had come for a sell-off in equities and we were not disappointed as the Dow lost over 234 points (worst week since March). Internal indicators now point to a pause in the decline. It’s now time for a short Intermission.

21wk

One of those indicators is the total number of unchanged issues divided by the total number of issues traded (NYSE). It reached a low on Thursday indicating a low in equities.



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Real Estate

Compare Toronto & Vancouver Housing


Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Wednesday, 16 August 2017 06:42

Single Family Detached, Town House and Condo Prices and Total Residential Listings and Sales and the Absorption Rates as well as INSIDE AIRBNB below

chart-compare-vancouver-toronto 8 orig
The chart above shows the HPI® prices for Vancouver and average prices for Toronto (solid plot lines) as well as the Monthly Absorption Rate ​(MAR = Sales/Listings as dotted plot lines). 
​​
​At the old Vancouver price peak in April 2012 before Torontonians joined the party, Vancouver metro SFDs were 64% more expensive than Toronto comparables. In July 2016 at the peak of Vancouver SFD prices, they were 65% more expensive. The gap was closing quickly; it narrowed down to 33% two months but with the sudden late summer zeal to buy in Vancouver and sell in Toronto, the gap has expanded again to 61%. Strata prices are also more expensive in Vancouver; 25% more for town-houses and 23% more for condos.

In March 2017 the Monthly Absorption Rate based on total inventory and total residential sales hit 154% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 47%. Vancouver may have led the FOMO crowd up the ladder, but Toronto maybe sending them down the snake.



Currency

Gold Versus The Yen


Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 15 August 2017 11:45

Aug 15, 2017

  1. For gold to perform well against the US dollar, it needs to perform well against the Japanese yen.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. 
  3. Since 2011 gold has traded sideways against the yen. Since 2013 it has been coiling in a very positive symmetrical triangle pattern.
  4. An upside breakout would usher in a major move higher for gold against both the yen and the dollar.
  5. Since 2013, the Indian market has been dealing with major duty, import rule, and hallmarking issues. The process has weighed on demand since 2012.
  6. India’s gold market has undergone an enormous restructuring in response to these issues. The good news is that the restructuring is essentially complete now. 
  7. That paves the way for higher imports on a much more consistent basis.
  8. China has made significant progress in tying gold price discovery more to physical demand versus supply.
  9. Trump has also had major success in pushing the dollar lower against most of the world’s currencies.
  10. These are not just one-time events. Events like tension in Korea can move gold $20 - $50 in a short period of time. A $100 - $200 move is possible if the tension intensifies (which it hasn’t).
  11. Unfortunately, these gains are no more sustainable than the gains from the 1980 Russian invasion of Afghanistan were sustainable.
  12. When the tension subsides, all the gains from these one-time events tends to be lost. 
  13. To move $1000 higher or more, gold needs to see a quasi-permanent ramp-up in the physical market demand against static or limited supply growth, and that’s happening right here, right now.
  14. Trump’s actions on the dollar are a long-term process. He is now beginning a trade war with China. From a gold price discovery perspective, this is vastly more important than tension involving Korea.
  15. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this gold chart.


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Real Estate

The new American Dream: rent your home from a hedge fund


Posted by Simon Black - Sovereign Man

on Tuesday, 15 August 2017 11:38

home thumb atlantaAbout a month ago I joined the Board of Directors of a publicly-traded company that invests in US real estate. 

The position brings a lot of insight into what’s happening in the US housing market. And from what I’m seeing, the transformation that’s taking place today is extraordinary. 

Buying and renting out single-family homes has long been the mainstay investment of small, individual investors. 

The big banks and hedge funds pretty much monopolize everything else. They own the stock market. They own the bond market. They own all the commercial real estate. They even own the farmland. 

Single-family homes were one of the last bastions of investment freedom for the little guy. 

(Real estate is how I got my own start in business and investing so many years ago; I was a 21-year-old Army lieutenant fresh out of the academy when I bought my first rental property.) 

But all that’s changing now. 
  
Last week a huge merger was announced between Invitation Homes (owned by private equity giant Blackstone Group) and Starwood Waypoint Homes (owned by real estate giant Starwood Capital). 

If the deal goes through, the combined entity would be the largest owner of single-family homes in the United States with a portfolio worth over $20 billion. 

And this is only the latest merger in an ongoing trend. 



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Wealth Building Strategies

World Markets Update


Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Tuesday, 15 August 2017 06:50

All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through August 14. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 23.86%, followed closely by India's BSE SENSEX at 18.11%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 10.14%.

The Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the last four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

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2017 YTD Performance

Here is an overlay of the eight illustrating their comparative performance thus far in 2017.

...view more charts and analysis HERE



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