Login

Timing & trends

Gold, Silver, Dollar Cycles – Part III


Posted by Chris Vermeulen & John Winston: TheMarketTrendForecast.com

on Friday, 17 February 2017 10:11

atpperffeb-290x130Gold is setting up for a historic rally based on my analysis.  Recent news provides further evidence that the Precious Metals and Currencies are in for a wild ride.  Just this week, news that China’s reserves fell below $3 Trillion as well as the implications that the fall to near $2T in reserves could happen before the end of 2017.  Additionally, we have recent news that the EU may be under further strain with regards to Greece, the IMF and debt.  The accumulation of Precious Metals should be on everyone’s mind as well as the potential for a breakout rally.

Based on my analysis, I would estimate that near June or July 2017, Gold will be near $1315 ~ $1341 (+13% from recent lows).  This level correlates to a Fibonacci frequency that has been in place for over 3 years now.  A second Fibonacci frequency rate would put the project advancement levels, possibly closer to October/November 2017, near $1421 (+21% from recent lows).  After these levels are reached, I expect a pullback to near $1261 if the Gold rally ends near $1315~1341 or to near $1308~1309 if the Gold rally ends near $1421.  This pullback would setup a massive next wave rally to $1585 or $1731.  So, if you need confirmation of this move, just wait for any rally to end above $1315, then wait for a pullback below $1280 or $1315 and BUY.

Subscribers and followers of my work profited handsomely this month locking a 112% profit with NUGT ETF with my service at ActiveTradingPartners.

....continue reading HERE



Banner

Wealth Building Strategies

Want To Find The Opportunities? Follow The Sentiment


Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Friday, 17 February 2017 08:48

holmes021617-1On Monday I had the opportunity to attend a conference at Goldman Sachs’ Dallas office. Among the dozens of money managers and investors who attended, a combined $1 trillion in assets was represented. The speakers were numerous, from famed economist Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s head of global economics, to Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research. Everyone was exceedingly smart and articulate, and I left the conference feeling recharged with much to think about.

One of the most fascinating takeaways was Goldman’s increased use of sentiment analysis tools. Basically what this means is sophisticated software trawls the internet in real time for public attitudes and opinions on companies, products, sectors, industries, countries—you name it. Sources can include press releases, news stories, earnings calls, blogs, social media and more. All of this data is gathered and analyzed, giving quants and other highly sophisticated investors a better idea of where tomorrow’s opportunities lie.

We have experience gauging sentiment using platforms designed by Meltwater and ScribbleLive, and I was pleased to see our efforts validated.

Goldman’s preferred system is Stanford’s CoreNLP, which is able to break down and analyze sentences in a number of different ways (and different languages to boot). Below is just a sampling of what the process looks like.   



Read more...

Banner

Energy & Commodities

Record High Oil Inventories Crush Hopes For $70 Oil


Posted by Christopher Johnson

on Friday, 17 February 2017 06:51

10ef99737f71bb9bdbb5055d0d39f027Plus "Oil rises after news OPEC could extend output cuts"

Another week brings yet more signs that the highly-anticipated oil market “balance” will not occur in the immediate future. Heading into 2017, there was a broad consensus that global oil production would fall below demand in the first half of the year, a deficit that would help bring down inventories and lead to relative balance between supply and demand. Mid-2017 seemed to be the timeframe that everyone was looking at for this development to occur.

But there are growing signs that the oil market won’t reach balance by then, and perhaps not this year at all. “We don’t really see a real balancing of the market coming until much much later,” Richard Gorry of JBC Energy Asia told CNBC in an interview. “Right now the oil market is oversupplied by about 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter. So to see inventories continue to go up is absolutely of no surprise to us.”

...continue reading HERE

...related:

Oil rises after news OPEC could extend output cuts

Oil prices rose on Thursday after OPEC sources said the group could extend its oil supply-reduction pact with non-members and might even apply deeper cuts if global crude inventories failed to drop to a targeted level.



Read more...

Banner

Timing & trends

Understanding the Rally


Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Friday, 17 February 2017 06:40

QUESTION: Marty is the rumor true that there is huge short-covering going on that is taking the US share market higher?

ANSWER: Of course. As I have stated, our model tends to show the point of no return is in the 23000 level, not here. This rally since 2009 has been the most BEARISH rally ever in history. Think of this like the mirror image of gold. Gold has declined for 5 years and you have people screaming here we go with ever $20 rally. In the stock market, it has been exactly the opposite. Every time the market decline, they say here we go it will crash by 70-90%.

This is what I mean that the MAJORITY must always be wrong for they are the fuel that moves markets. I have been stating persistently that the Dow cannot “C R A S H” when the majority are bearish and retail participation is at historic lows (see Gallup poll).

Gallup-Poll-on-Media

The only real buyers have been due to the dollar, and sophisticated traders. The bulk of everyone else are BEARISH and cannot bring themselves to buy for they are still fighting the last rally in 2007 when they got caught. Therefore, the bulk of buying is short-covering – not fresh longs. This is very important. Fresh longs buying new highs turn sellers on a downturn. Short-covering does not. They may attempt to short against, but typically into a low – not highs.



Read more...

Banner

Asset protection

Stock Market Crash 2017; reality or all Hype


Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Friday, 17 February 2017 06:16

A man profits more by the sight of an idiot than by the orations of the learned.

Arabian Proverb

We have one expert after another predicting that it is time for the markets to crash; mind you these same chaps sang this same terrible song of Gloom in 2015, 2016 and now they are singing it with the same passion in 2017. There is one noteworthy factor, though; a few former Bulls have joined the pack. Does this now mean that the markets are going to crash? Apparently not, well, at least if you look at the indices, as of Jan the market continues to trend higher. Furthermore, what is a crash or for that matter a pullback or a correction? Does it not all boil down to a perception? One individual could view it as a crash, while the other views it as a mild correction and an opportunity to purchase more shares. It would all depend on when you jumped into this market. If you embraced this bull market in 2016, then a pullback in the 10%-15% ranges would feel like a crash. On the other hand, if you embraced this beast (Stock Market Bull) anywhere from 2009-2011, it would seem like a mild orderly correction. Most experts almost gleefully try to force their twisted perceptions on everyone. Just because the experts decide to label it as a crash does not mean you should follow their lead; experts are known for getting it wrong all the time. In fact, experiments have shown that monkeys throwing darts at a random list of stocks fare much better than Wall Street experts. Hence, take their so-called sage advice with a barrel of salt.

If these experts were so astute, then why have most of them missed one of the biggest bull markets of all time. Moreover, now they want to convince you that it is time to short it after failing to embrace it. How can one trust these penguins? If they failed to identify the bull market in the first place, how is it they are suddenly able to predict the top.

Several weeks ago we penned an article (excerpt provided below) where we stated that caution was warranted as the markets should let out some steam, but as the trend was still up, we did not feel it was time to short the markets. All the experts that stated it was time to bail out and short the market must be smarting from their losses. The market loves to punish arrogant self-proclaimed know it all gurus. Mass psychology is very clear when it comes to the markets; the masses need to embrace the markets before one can claim a top is close at hand. The masses so far have refused to embrace this market for a prolonged period.

When you think about it, everything comes down to perception. Alter the angle of the observation slightly, and you modify the perception. What appears bullish to one could be viewed as an extremely bearish development by another. When it comes to investing the goal should be to determine what view the masses hold whether it is valid or not is irrelevant for the difference between a truth and deception comes down to perception also. If the masses are leaning strongly towards a particular outlook, history indicates that taking a contrary position usually pays off.

The masses have for the first time embraced this bull market. From a mass psychology perspective, this is alone is not a huge negative. Mass Psychology dictates that the masses need to turn euphoric before one abandons the ship. It is not the time to abandon ship, but it is time to take a breather and let the storm clouds pass. The Dow industrials exploded upwards and have experienced a near vertical move over the past two months. Under such conditions, one should not be shocked if the markets let out a stronger dose of steam than they have over the past 24 months. Tactical Investor

The crowd appeared to embrace this market initially, but just as fast as they embraced it, they pulled back as illustrated by one of our proprietary indicators. In Jan of this year, the gauge was in the middle of the Mild Zone, but as you can see as of the last reading, the gauge has just dipped into the “severe” zone. Given the current trajectory, we expect the needle to move deeply into the “severe” area in the very near future. Instead of pulling back the markets have continued to trend higher, and at this stage of the game, patience is called for. Ideally, the markets will let out a large dose of steam, but markets do not usually cater to your needs; barring a substantial pullback a nice consolidation would suffice. Market consolidations drive key technical indicators into the oversold ranges and allow the market to build up steam for the next upward leg.

anxietyindex

This rapid change in Crowd sentiment validates what we have stated all along last year that the final part of this ride is going to be extremely volatile. It also confirms that all sharp pullbacks have to be viewed through a bullish lens, regardless of the intensity, until the trend changes. The trend is still up, and the masses are far from euphoric. Let’s not forget that Trump continues to inject a massive dose of uncertainty into the markets. When it comes to the markets, uncertainty is a bullish factor, for it means volatility is going to soar and volatility is a trader’s best friend.

Conclusion



Read more...

Banner

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>

Page 6 of 1925

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Ozzie Jurock Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine