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Stocks & Equities

Stock Trading Alert: Uncertainty Following Interest Rate Increase - Will Uptrend Continue?


Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Monday, 20 March 2017 07:13

Stock Trading Alert originally sent to subscribers on March 20, 2017, 6:57 AM.

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1% on Friday, extending their short-term consolidation following Wednesday's FOMC Rate Decision release rally. The S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its March 1 all-time high of 2,400.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to trade above 20,900 mark, and the technology Nasdaq Composite index remained above the level of 5,900. All three major stock market indexes remain relatively close to their early March new record highs. For now, it looks like a flat correction within medium-term uptrend. Will stocks break above their few-week-long trading range? The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,370-2,375, marked by recent local highs. The next support level remains at 2,350-2,360, marked by local lows and the February 21 daily gap up of 2,351.16-2,354.91. The support level is also at around 2,320. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,390-2,400, marked by all-time high. Will the market extend its year-long medium-term uptrend even further before some more meaningful downward correction? We can see some short-term volatility following four-month-long rally off last year's November low at around 2,100. Is this a topping pattern before downward reversal? The uptrend accelerated on March 1 and it looked like a blow-off top pattern accompanied by some buying frenzy. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above its over year-long medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:

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Gold & Precious Metals

Precious Metals and 200-Day Moving Averages


Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Monday, 20 March 2017 07:07

The precious metals complex enjoyed a strong week mostly due to a post-Fed explosion on Wednesday. Although gold stocks sold off to end the week, they finished up almost 5% for the week. Gold gained 2.4% on the week while Silver gained 2.9%. The miners enjoyed massive gains following the previous two rate hikes and that has some optimistic about a repeat scenario. However, the miners and metals need to prove they can recapture their 200-day moving averages before we become optimistic.

Precious metals should trend higher in the short-term if the current macro technical landscape does not change. The US Dollar index has fallen below its 50-day moving average and could fall another 2% to moving average support. Also, despite the Fed rate hike, the 10-year yield did not make a new high. Bonds could rebound and the huge speculative short position, if unwound could add to the rebound. A rally in Bonds coupled with a weak US Dollar would help precious metals.

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Precious metals could rebound farther but resistance in the form of the 200-day moving average looms large. In the chart below we plot Gold, Silver, GDXJ and GDX along with their 200-day moving averages. In addition to the 200-day moving average, the February highs will also provide resistance. We should note, while the metals remained above their late January lows, the miners did not. It would not be a good sign to see a continued rally led by the metals rather than the miners.



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week The Week


Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 18 March 2017 08:05

1. One of the Most Effective Trading Tools for Investors

The study of cycles. Quantified and cataloged historical cycles stretching back hundreds and even thousands of years. Combined with cyclical pattern recognition across hundreds of markets and individual securities.

....read more HERE

43933 c2. Fanaticism, Stock Market Crash 2017 or Continuation of Bull Market

Not too long ago this bull market was one of the most hated in history; that no longer appears to be the case.

....continue HERE

 

3. Largest New Discovery of Oil in USA - Fed Raises Rates Markets Rally

    by Martin Armstrong

A major discovery of oil has been made in Alaska of 1.2 billion barrels. The largest find of conventional oil for 30 years on US territory.

"The Fed’s forecasts have moved in the direction of tightening, and despite what they say publicly, the most serious stimulus is rising stock prices"

...continue reading HERE



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Energy & Commodities

Wall Street Bullish On Oil Prices Despite Saudi Warnings


Posted by OilPrice.com

on Friday, 17 March 2017 07:58

7783ed8eb04ea4fe06e9fc150dee0211Oil prices have given up some of the gains achieved since the OPEC deal was agreed to in late November, and confidence in the buoyancy of crude prices is starting to falter. There are plenty of reasons why: U.S. shale is coming back; OPEC cuts led to higher prices in December, but have had little effect since then; crude and refined product inventories are still extraordinarily high; and speculative bets are looking overly optimistic at this point.

But the major investment banks tracking oil markets are surprisingly steadfast in their predictions that the market is proceeding steadily...

....continue reading HERE

...related:

Martin Armstrong on: Largest New Discovery of Oil in USA



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Personal Finance

Stock Exchange: Can Humans Compete with High Frequency Traders?


Posted by Jeff Miller - Dash of Insight

on Friday, 17 March 2017 07:53

the-dark-pool-high-frequency-tradingMany individual investors have been frustrated by the growing prominence of High Frequency Trading. Complicated algorithms can process new information and react in fractions of a second. It sounds intimidating, and in some sense, it is. Individual Investors would be poorly suited for direct competition.

Instead, stick to what the market is giving you. The connections made by these programs are often spurious – totally unrelated to the fundamentals of a given business. This is intentional. After all, they’re after a quick buck rather than a long-term investment.

For that reason, a stock being walloped for frivolous story in the 24-hour news cycle may present an attractive buying opportunity. It all comes down to the individual investor’s process and commitment to their goals.

....continue reading HERE



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