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Gold Is Unloved...and That's a Good Thing for Metals Investors, Says Kathy Derbes


Posted by Kathy Derbes via Financial Sense

on Tuesday, 16 May 2017 07:42

gold-trendlines

 

In direct contrast to the "euphoria days" of 2011, most investors have now turned bearish on gold after experiencing a multi-year bear market. Contrarian investors—who generally invest against the consensus or the crowd—argue that's a good sign and believe the bear market in gold has likely reached an end.

One way to determine this is by looking at the behavior of retail investors, who are much smaller, speculative buyers, vs. the wholesale market, who buy much larger quantities and, often, when prices are more attractive.

....read more HERE

....also from Financial Sense:

Oil Jumps as Saudis And Russians Agree to Extend OPEC Deal Into 2018



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Wealth Building Strategies

Dying Shopping Malls and Wealth Managers


Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Tuesday, 16 May 2017 07:34

Ticker-TAPE-242x300....also from Martin: The Coming Central Bank Crisis

People talk about the changing environment. In the financial world around us, things are also changing dramatically. What use to be is no more. There are no real ticker-tape parades any more and future pits are closing opting for online trading. What is changing and why can we not see it? The internet has changed the way people shop around the world with the retail sector currently dominated by Amazon, accounting for almost 65% of online sales.   Amazon pasted Walmart (in market cap) back in 2015 and within the past two years has grown in value to be worth twice as much. Large department stores and the more traditional malls are closing but this is happening as retail spending continues to grow. Admittedly, online merchants have made it far easier, tap a button and our goods arrive at the doorstep the next day, but obviously at the expense of shop staff. The more comfortable we get with online retail the more intelligent we are shopping around and doing it ourselves. Is having the ease of service and renewed confidence a major influence upon why we are turning to index trackers and ETF’s rather than pay a money manager 2% to do it for us?

The ETF market has ballooned since the early 2000’s and is now worth approximately $2.5tn. With this “online” competition, the rumours are that the fees have been reduced to an almost nothing, with money managers taking just 20bp on the fund in the hope that they can make additional returns on the bid/offer spread. One of the problems we could face however, is that the derivative (ETF) becomes more liquid than the underlying. The relationship will work fine in an orderly market but will be tested in extremely or volatile conditions. The concern should be when will Market-Makers widen their spreads so just ensure you are not the last one to see the problems.

 



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Personal Finance

What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index


Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Tuesday, 16 May 2017 07:18

Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include Friday's Consumer Price Index news release.

Back in 2010, the Fed justified its aggressive monetary policy "to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate" (full text). In effect, the Fed has been trying to increase inflation, operating at the macro level. But what does inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?

Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart below illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U, which we'll refer to hereafter as the CPI.

9eabef2264f0afaf38b053c4e241ae80

....continue reading HERE

....related:

A Long-Term Look at Inflation



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Gold & Precious Metals

Canary In The Silver Mine


Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 16 May 2017 07:15

May 16, 2017

  1. The average gold market investor should be quite happy right now. If that’s not the case, the investor has likely used price projection analysis as a reason to “chase price”, and needs to deploy a new set of market tactics.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this very nice looking daily gold chart. Gold has been in an uptrend since December. Note the consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the chart.
  3. I use the 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator on key daily charts instead of the popular 14,3,3 series, because it smooths out a lot of false signals.
  4. As the oscillator reached the oversold area of about 10 in mid March, Indian dealer stocking for Akha Teej was ramping up, and the oscillator slowly became overbought in the 90 area.
  5. It’s important for investors to look at major fundamental events like Chindian festivals and US central bank policy changes. 
  6. When those events are in play with the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator in the oversold position at about 10, significant rallies can be expected to occur in the gold market.


Read more...

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Energy & Commodities

Crude Awakening: The Global Black Market for Oil


Posted by Visual Capitalist

on Monday, 15 May 2017 14:43

Screen Shot 2017-05-15 at 2.18.23 PM

The value of the crude oil production alone is worth a staggering $1.7 trillion each year. Add downstream fuels and other services to that, and oil is a money-making machine.

Both companies and governments take advantage of this resource wealth. More of the world’s largest companies work in the oil patch than any other industry. At the same, entire government regimes are kept intact thanks to oil revenues.

The only problem when an industry becomes this lucrative?

Eventually, everybody wants a piece of the pie – and they’ll do anything to get their share.



Read more...

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