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Timing & trends

paul-rejczak Stocks At Record Highs: Market Sentiment Still Bullish


Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Monday, 26 June 2017 08:03

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.5% on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following economic data, quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its last Monday's new all-time high of 2,453.82. It has reached new record high after a breakout above short-term consolidation along the level of 2,420-2,440. Stocks have rebounded strongly following their mid-May quick two-session sell-off and continued over eight-year-long bull market off 2009 lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains close to its last Tuesday's new all-time high at the level of 21,535.03. The technology Nasdaq Composite was relatively stronger than the broad stock market on Friday, as it continued to retrace its recent move down. The nearest important support level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,430-2,435, marked by last Monday's daily gap up of 2,433.15-2,441.79. The next level of support is at 2,415-2,420, marked by some recent local lows. The support level is also at 2,400-2,410, marked by the May 25 daily gap up of 2,405.58-2,408.01, among others. On the other hand, level of resistance is at 2,450-2,455, marked by new all-time high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see overbought conditions and negative technical divergences. The S&P 500 index is trading within its three-week-long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

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Will Uptrend Continue?



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Asset protection

Chicago Police Pension Goes Bust


Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Monday, 26 June 2017 07:28

Chicago-Police

Chicago’s police pension fund won’t have enough money to pay benefits to retirees in 2021, according to a projection by Local Government Information Services (LGIS). At the end of 2020, LGIS estimates that the Policemen’s Annuity and Benefit Fund of Chicago will have less than $150 million in assets to pay $928 million promised to 14,133 retirees the following year.

 

This is the fate of state and local pension funds. There is a storm gathering on the horizon and of course these state and local governments will be raising taxes to try to stay afloat. The system is collapsing and it is totally unsustainable. This is the very same crisis that destroyed the Roman Empire.

....also from Martin:

ECB Declares Two Italian Banks Have Failed

Britain on the Edge of Collapse?

 

 



Stocks & Equities

Central Banks Buying Stocks Have Rigged US Stock Market Beyond Recovery


Posted by David Haggith - The Great Recession Blog

on Monday, 26 June 2017 06:49

US-Federal-Reserve-Eccles-Building-1937-500x378Central banks buying stocks are effectively nationalizing US corporations just to maintain the illusion that their “recovery” plan is working because they have become the banks that are too big to fail. At first, their novel entry into the stock market was only intended to rescue imperiled corporations, such as General Motors during the first plunge into the Great Recession, but recently their efforts have shifted to propping up the entire stock market via major purchases of the most healthy companies on the market.

Brian Rich, writing for Forbes, describes the economic illusion created by central banks buying stocks during a time of presidential prosecution:

The chaos and dysfunction message is loud, but markets aren’t hearing it. The real story is very different. Stocks continue to surge; stock market volatility continues to sit at ten–year (pre–crisis) lows. The interest rate market is much higher than it was before the election, but now quiet and stable. Gold, the fear–of–the–unknown trade, is relatively quiet. This all looks very much like a world that believes a real economic expansion is underway, and that a long–term sustainable global economic recovery has supplanted the shaky post-crisis (central bank–driven) recovery that was teetering back toward recession.

In other words, political chaos in the regime is not denting the stock market, because central banks buying stocks are eliminating volatility. Indeed, if you were to gauge the economy at this point by the US stock market, everything must be grand because the Trump Rally has been one of our most exuberant stock rallies.

According to Rich, all of that is a central-bank-created slight of hand intended to distract you from what is happening in politics and throughout the macro economy:



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Summer Doldrums


Posted by Adam Hamilton - Zeal Intelligence Intelligence

on Monday, 26 June 2017 06:36

Gold has spent most of June grinding lower on balance, damaging sentiment and vexing traders.  Usual selling leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike contributed, but the summer doldrums are also in play.  Gold has typically suffered a seasonal lull this time of year, on waning investment demand as vacations divert attention from markets.  But these summer doldrums offer the best seasonal buying opportunities of the year.

This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s summer predicament.  It describes a zone in the world’s oceans surrounding the equator.  There hot air is constantly rising, creating long-lived low-pressure areas.  They are often calm, with little or no prevailing winds.  History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or even weeks, unable to make any headway.  The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.

Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their precious stores of food and drink.  Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on these ships long before air conditioning.  Misery and boredom were extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies.  Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.

Gold investors can somewhat relate.  Like clockwork nearly every summer, gold starts drifting listlessly sideways.  It often can’t make significant progress no matter what the trends looked like heading into June, July, and August.  As the days and weeks slowly pass, sentiment deteriorates markedly.  Patience is gradually exhausted, supplanted with deep frustration.  Plenty of traders capitulate, abandoning ship.

Thus after decades of trading gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks, I’ve come to call this time of year the summer doldrums.  June and July in particular are usually desolate sentiment wastelands for precious metals, totally devoid of recurring seasonal demand surges.  Unlike the rest of the year, these summer months simply lack any major income-cycle or cultural drivers of outsized gold investment demand.



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Fascinating Articles Of The Week


Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 24 June 2017 08:07

Anxiety June  2017 - Copy1. Random Thoughts on this Crazy Charging Stock Market Bull

 By every measure of logic and or common sense, this bull market should have crashed years ago. However, it hasn't, and much to the angst of many professionals continued its march upwards against all the odds.

....read it all HERE

2. The Middle East Is Blowing Up

Every day brings another scary headline from the Middle East — which makes it easy to treat them as background noise rather than a clear and present danger. But the latest batch is reminiscent of the Balkans circa 1914, which means it may be time to tune back in.

....read it all HERE

3. Bob Hoye: Checklist for a Top

Understandably, we don't publish a "Checklist for a Top" all that often. But when we do, it is daunting. Not everyone is a researcher or trader. There are real lives and portfolios out there that are vulnerable.

....read it all HERE



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Notes From Michael - June 28th The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety)...

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