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Stocks & Equities

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today


Posted by Jon Vialoux - Equity Clock

on Tuesday, 17 October 2017 06:53

**NEW** As part of the ongoing process to offer new and up-to-date information regarding seasonal and technical investing, we are adding a section to the daily reports that details the stocks that are entering their period of seasonal strength, based on average historical start dates.   Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Click for larger images:

ELY

Callaway Golf Co (NYSE:ELY) Seasonal Chart

Six Flags Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:SIX) Seasonal Chart

Six Flags Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:SIX) Seasonal Chart

MSG Networks Inc. (NYSE:MSGN) Seasonal Chart

MSG Networks Inc. (NYSE:MSGN) Seasonal Chart



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Currency

Silver: Short Term Vulnerable To US Dollar Rally


Posted by Clive Maund

on Tuesday, 17 October 2017 06:41

Like gold, silver gapped out of its downtrend last week, but volume was lacking on this move, which, given the now bullish outlook for the dollar, may turn out to be a “pop” that will be followed by renewed decline. This breakout was predicted in the last update, when it was pointed out that silver’s COTs were still far from outright bullish. You are referred to the parallel Gold Market update to read the reasons why the dollar may be shaping up for a sizable rally back to the 97 area on the index, before turning and heading south again. Needless to say, this can be expected to knock gold and silver back down again.On its latest 6-month chart we can see how silver gapped higher last week, after breaking out of its recent downtrend a few days before. As mentioned above, due to the immediate outlook for the dollar being positive, with a sizable “swansong” rally in prospect, this breakout by silver may well turn out to be a “pop” to be followed by renewed decline. How far might it drop? – a logical target, given that gold would probably drop to the $1200 - $1215 area, would be somewhere in the vicinity of its July lows, i.e. somewhere in the $15 area.

silver6month151017

....continue for 2 more charts and commentary HERE



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold: Textbook Pullback In Play


Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 17 October 2017 06:38

Oct 17, 2017

  1. Gold’s recent rally from the $1268 area lows has stalled, and the reasons for that are both fundamental and technical.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. Gold fell about $100 from the $1362 area highs as seasonally soft Chinese buying was accompanied by a collapse in Indian demand.
  3. That collapse was caused by the “Know Your Client” rule imposed by the government on gold jewellery purchases.
  4. The price decline was exacerbated by the “Golden Week”  holiday in China. Also, the Chinese government chopped commercial bank reserve requirements. That created a huge “risk-on” mentality in global stock markets during what is normally a weak period.
  5. As the Golden Week holiday ended, the US jobs report was released, and the Indian government killed the “Know Your Client” rule. 
  6. Gold surged about $40 higher from the $1268 area Fibonacci line to the neckline of the head and shoulders top pattern.


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Wealth Building Strategies

Predicting Dow One Million - Was Warren Buffett Being Bold Or Overly Cautious?


Posted by Daniel R. Amerman

on Tuesday, 17 October 2017 06:06

Summary

- Warren Buffett recently predicted that the Dow would be over 1 Million in 100 years - and challenged skeptics to do the math.

- This analysis takes the challenge, does the math, and finds some quite surprising results.

- The tax consequences of Dow 1 million are uncovered and the real after-inflation and after-tax return is determined.

- What the Dow would need to be in 100 years for a genuine boldly optimistic prediction is calculated.

- What the wily Fox of Omaha has experienced in his lifetime, and what he understands that most people don't.

In a recent speech, Warren Buffett came down boldly on the side of optimism when it comes to both the economy and financial markets. What he said was"being short America has been a loser's game... And it will continue to be a loser's game."

And to throw down the gauntlet against some the current negative talk in the markets, Mr. Buffett boldly predicted something quite extraordinary - which was that in 100 years "the Dow will be over a million."

Is that even remotely believable, or is Mr. Buffett getting carried away by his own optimism?

The Challenge By Buffett: Check The Math

Warren Buffett knew as he predicted Dow One Million that this would seem unbelievable to many people or even ridiculous. Which is why he also said this "is not a ridiculous forecast at all if you do the math".

In this analysis we will do that math using two key assumptions.

First we will use an absolutely average historical rate of inflation.

We will also take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the same terms that Mr. Buffett was talking about - which is price changes in an index (but not including dividends). In the process we're going to learn some valuable lessons with a great deal of real-world applicability not just going out 100 years, but also for the next 10, 20 and 30 years when it comes to retirement financial planning and other forms of long-term investment.

A Historically Normal Rate Of Inflation, Past And Future

We will begin by determining the long-term rate of inflation. For this we will go back to 1933 and the end of the gold standard for domestic purposes. The consumer price index for urban consumers, which is usually referred to as the CPI-U, was 13.2 in August of 1933.

566013-15081669999040637

.....continue reading HERE

 

Exactly 84 years later in August of 2017, the CPI-U was up to 245.5. Now there's several different ways of looking at this. One way is what would have cost us $13.20 in 1933, instead costs over $245 dollars in 2017, meaning that we are paying almost 19 times as much for the basic goods and services of daily life in 2017 than we did in 1933.



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Asset protection

Greyerz – Explosive Setup In Silver As Debt Binge World Faces Two Grim Alternatives


Posted by King World News

on Monday, 16 October 2017 06:52

KWN-Greyerz-III-10152017

With continued uncertainty around the globe, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, told King World News that the setup in the silver market is explosive as debt binge world faces two grim alternatives.

....continue reading HERE

....also from KingWorld:

With Gold Surging Above $1,300, Here Are Two Of The Biggest Surprises From Jim Grant’s Conference



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