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Stocks & Equities

The Trump Rally is Just Getting Started!


Posted by Chris Vermeulen - The Gold & Oil Guy

on Wednesday, 15 February 2017 07:29

tr1-705x312Have you ever been presented with an opportunity and missed out on it?  Well, here is an opportunity you Do NOT want to miss out on.

Based upon my unique “Cycle Analytical” work combined with my “Proprietary Predictive Analytics Model, I can assure you that there are new highs to be made in the U.S. stock. Appling my unique metric, which are not available to the public, I can inform you that the stock markets are not overbought or overextended, at present. The market remains in a clear bullish trend!  This next new leg is very sustainable!

Technically Speaking, It Is Now Back To “Buy The Dip”:

The SPX, Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite all closed at new all-time highs last Friday, February 10th,2017.  The Trump Rally is just getting started according to Bloomberg.

Investors should expect that the global markets will continue their bull market run throughout the first half of 2017 rather than forming a top which leads to a bear market. “Extremes” have lost their’ meanings, at this point. The Federal Reserve has given the green light to major banks in the U.S. to raise dividends and buy back shares of their companies. The huge thrust in momentum has now returned to the four U.S. stock indexes.

....continue reading HERE



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Wealth Building Strategies

Gold Intermediate Cycle Update


Posted by Surf City

on Wednesday, 15 February 2017 07:25

NOTHING is certain or guaranteed in Markets.... ever. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a charlatan.

That said, within Bressert's Cycle framework the norm is that a new Intermediate Cycle in any asset should test or breach the Intermediate Cycle downtrend before topping and those are my expectations based on my current analysis on both Gold and the USD.

With that as background, my Gold chart shows these expectations.



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Economic Outlook

Why I’m not worried about China and Asia


Posted by Larry Edelson - Money & Markets

on Wednesday, 15 February 2017 06:45

Screen Shot 2017-02-15 at 6.27.45 AMIf you only read the headlines, it’s easy to believe a trade war could be looming with China and Asia.

In fact, if you believe the rhetoric, you’d take a second look before investing a dime of your hard-earned money in anything related to the region.

But it’s just rhetoric – and misleading rhetoric to boot. Here’s what is really happening …

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was set to be the largest regional trade accord in history.

The TPP would have set new terms for trade and business investment among the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations: A wide-ranging group with an annual gross domestic product of nearly $28 trillion, representing roughly 40 percent of global GDP and one-third of world trade.

President Trump didn’t like the deal and thinks a more U.S. friendly deal can be made. So his administration is pushing for bilateral trade agreements between these each of these nations in the future.

In other words, getting rid of TPP wasn’t the end of trade negotiations, it was the beginning. There’s going to be a ton of deals coming down the pike.

And a lot of trade talk in China and Asia is going to go that way: Rhetoric and Trump posturing to begin with, deal making in the end.

Then, there’s tax reform and the possibility of President Trump’s administration implementing a border-adjustment tax. 



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Timing & trends

The bull market no one believes in


Posted by Clif Droke - Momentum Strategies Report ies Report

on Wednesday, 15 February 2017 06:22

The stock market continues to make new highs, yet none of the signs which accompany a market bubble are evident.  Investors are asking, “When will the Dow finally correct?”  By “correct” they mean “decline.”  However, a market correction doesn’t always entail a decline for the major averages and can sometimes take the form of a lateral consolidation or trading range.  That appears to be the case for the 2-month period from December through early February when the Dow and S&P made little headway.

In fact, in January the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) recorded its tightest trading range of only 1.1% in over 100 years.  This continues a prolonged sideways pattern in the Dow and other averages since mid-December when the post-election rally reached a plateau.  The question everyone was asking was whether this plateau was merely a temporary “pause that refreshes” in an ongoing rally or the end of the rally and the prelude to another market setback.  The Dow provided the answer to that with the last week’s breakout above the top of the trading range ceiling.  It has rallied each day since, putatively on the hopes generated by President Trump’s forthcoming tax-related announcement. 

dji

While the bull market in equities continues, a surprising number of investors are either mistrustful of the rally or outright bearish.  According to a recent article in BBC News, there are a growing number of wealthy and politically liberal U.S. citizens who are doing things in the wake of Donald Trump’s election that were commonly seen by politically conservative citizens during the Obama years.  That is, they are buying guns, becoming survivalists, and preparing for an impending catastrophe related to the Trump presidency, the article reported.



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Gains on Uncertainty


Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Wednesday, 15 February 2017 06:05

Last year, central bank policy and negative real interest rates drove the gold rally. This year, it seems to be uncertainty over Trump and other antiestablishment leaders, which is convincing the smart money to make wagers on the yellow metal, often seen as a safe haven during shaky times. So far in 2017, it’s up close to 7 percent, compared to the S&P 500’s 2.6 percent. In fact, if you compare this year’s price action to last year’s, they look remarkably the same, with a dip in December before the Federal Reserve raised rates. Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, gold could gain another $100 an ounce this year if it continues to follow the same trajectory.

COMM-Gold-Continues-Mirror-Price-Action-Last-Year-02102017
click to enlarge

Among those who are bullish on the yellow metal is Stanley Druckenmiller, the legendary hedge fund manager who dumped his gold the same day he learned Trump had been elected. Before that, it was the number one holding in his family office account. Now he’s back, telling Bloomberg he “wanted to own some currency and no country wants its currency to strengthen. Gold was down a lot, so I bought it.”

Higher demand has been good for both junior and senior gold miners, which recently crossed above their 200-day moving averages.

Junior and Senior Gold Miners Above Their 200-Day Moving Averages
click to enlarge

The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index was up for an incredible seven straight days ended Monday, while the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners has made positive gains in eight of the nine previous days.

Germany Brings Home More of Its Gold

Hedge fund managers aren’t the only ones whose demand for gold is strong. For the sixth straight year, central banks continued to be net importers of the metal in 2016, with China, Russia and Kazakhstan leading world consumption.

Germany repatriated 216 metric tons of gold in 2016

Although it might not have purchased any gold in 2016, the Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, ramped up its repatriation program, bringing home some 216 metric tons from vaults in New York, according to the Wall Street Journal. In 2011, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said central banks held gold simply because it’s tradition. I think the reason goes much deeper than that. Gold is money—it has been ever since the first gold currency appeared in China more than 3,000 years ago—and Germany’s efforts are proof of that.    



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