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Timing & trends

The Big Picture - Key Turning Dates


Posted by Victor Adair for Moneytalks

on Tuesday, 07 February 2012 04:10

In my market comments last year I frequently referred to the KEY turn dates of May 2 and Oct 4...when the directional trends of a number of important markets changed. For instance, the S+P 500 and Crude Oil both made important highs on May 2 (and the US Dollar made an important low) while on Oct 4 the S+P 500 and Crude Oil both made important lows (and the US Dollar made an interim high.)

 

Last year, as markets approached the KEY HIGH turn date of May 2, 2011, bullish enthusiasm was very strong across asset classes....silver was charging to $50 an ounce and the VIX traded down to a 4 year low...the COT data indicated that speculators were very aggressive buyers. I was anticipating that the (bear market) rally from the March 2009 lows was reaching a crescendo...but I was waiting for a confirmation that a top had been made.

 

May 2, 2011 turned out to be a significant high in a number of markets and prices declined into late June. There was a "bounce back" rally into July (which took a few markets like AUD, CAD, Copper to marginal new highs) but then most asset prices (except for gold) fell sharply through the August/September period into the KEY Oct 4 lows. During that break the VIX rose sharply and by Oct 4 it hit 46%...three times what it had been at the May 2 highs...a great indicator of a bearish extreme. Since the Oct 4 lows in stocks and commodities the VIX has tumbled to 17% this Friday....its lowest level since July of last year....as rising asset prices have dampened the market's anxiety.

 

Over the past several weeks asset markets have "wanted" to go higher...a "risk on" environment....especially since the Euro joined the party and turned higher in mid-January.



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Gold & Precious Metals

Plenty of big money to be made …


Posted by Larry Edelson: Uncommon Wisdom

on Monday, 06 February 2012 08:02

Ed Note: To watch this commentary in video go HERE

 

Let me say — in no uncertain terms — that if you think all these markets that are rallying are about to shoot to the moon, I think you need to stand back and be very, very careful.

 

Yes, everything from gold to silver to stocks are rallying — but that does not mean the rallies are the real McCoy — and that they are going to continue to rally. Indeed, ALL of my indicators continue to suggest that big traps are being set, and the next big moves will not be UP, but instead, will be DOWN.

 

Let’s go right to the charts. Here’s my latest gold chart.

Gold



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Stocks & Equities

The Bottom Line


Posted by Don Vialoux: Timing the Market

on Monday, 06 February 2012 07:55

Downside short term risk in equity markets currently exceeds short term upside potential. More sectors are starting to roll over from overbought levels. Fourth quarter earnings reports, economic news and possible macro events point to the high probability of at least a shallow, short term correction. Short term weakness will provide an opportunity to enter into seasonal plays that traditionally outperform during the spring season (e.g. Energy).



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Energy & Commodities

Potash's Current Calm Promises an Exciting Future


Posted by Brian Sylvester of The Energy Report

on Friday, 03 February 2012 06:57

potash1

Last year marked the third-largest growth in the potash industry, but hesitancy from India and China may put things on hold in 2012. However, MGI Securities Analyst Corey Dias still expects to see a lot of positive news coming out of the junior potash space. In an exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Dias specifies which companies he'll be following for progress.

COMPANIES MENTIONED: AGRIUM INC. -ALLANA POTASH CORP. - KARNALYTE RESOURCES INC. - PASSPORT POTASH INC. - POTASH CORP. - RIO TINTO - RIO VERDE MINERALS DEVELOPMENT CORP. - THE MOSAIC COMPANY -VERDE POTASH

The Energy Report: Total potash demand in 2011 was estimated at 56 million tons (Mt), and the market has traditionally grown at a rate of about 3.5%/year. Do you believe we'll see a similar increase in 2012?


Corey Dias: I think 3.5% could be at the high end of growth for 2012. I would expect slightly lower growth this year given that India is delaying its potash purchases until the end of Q112. China is also determining its exact needs, and there are rumors that it may reduce its imports this year versus 2011. Everything tends to depend on price. Canpotex (the marketing company for Saskatchewan potash producers) and its Belarusian counterpart are holding out for higher prices than India and the China currently seems willing to pay. With those delays, demand will probably be slightly below the historical 3.5% growth rate.



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Lifestyle

Best Places in the World to Retire


Posted by The Daily Reckoning

on Thursday, 02 February 2012 19:13

DRUS01-26-12-1

If you had $20,000 a month to retire on — you could live lavishly pretty much anywhere on the planet. But we’re interested in the places where you can live that lifestyle on one-tenth the budget…

Places where you can have a maid clean for you…hire a gardener… wake up to a view…have great health care, eat well, enjoy the finer things in life — for less than $2,000 a month. You may be surprised how many there are…

Months ago, our far-flung editors and in-country advisers began collecting all the data and details that inform our annual Retirement Index.

To compile it, we evaluate and rank countries around the world according to eight crucial categories: real estate, special retirement benefits, cost of living, ease of integration, entertainment and amenities, health care, retirement infrastructure and climate.



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