Timing & trends

Lots of action and profit opportunities!

Posted by Larry Edelson - Uncommon Wisdom

on Monday, 28 May 2012 06:41

Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen plenty of action, fortunately following right along with my forecasts. So let’s take a quick look at the charts.

This will be a bit of an abbreviated video today because it is a holiday, but I still want to show you the charts of the main markets.

Let’s start with gold. As you can see here on this chart of gold, gold has indeed slid quite sharply down to around the $1,526 level, testing the low from late December 2011, and it is finding some technical support there.

We should see a bounce, bringing it back up to say $1,600, $1,610. But I do believe, based on all of my indicators, that we will see a break below $1,500 down to around the $1,440 level in the coming weeks. So I remain bearish on gold.


Now let’s also take a look at silver. Silver has been following gold quite closely and is falling actually even sharper than gold, which is to be expected.

Silver’s finding some technical support in here, but I do expect silver to break through the $26.60, $27 support level and move lower still.

All of my indicators remain bearish in silver.


Let’s take a quick look at the U.S. Dollar Index as a proxy for the U.S. dollar. Indeed, in the last video update I did for you, I did indicate that I expected the dollar to break this resistance line here, mid-channel, and move above the 81, 82 level.

That’s precisely what happened. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little pullback then a further rally up to 84. This is largely being driven by the meltdown in Europe and the European sovereign-debt crisis, which in the short term is bullish for the U.S. dollar.


Now let’s take a look at the Dow Industrials. We have begun to see a rather sharp sell-off here. However, we’re coming into some very important support levels in the Dow. More specifically around 12,250.

As long as that level holds, we should probably trade back up to the 12,900 level. And we’ll have to see what happens at that point. If 12,250 gives way on a closing basis, we could see further losses in the Dow — down to about 11,800 or maybe even 11,500. It’s a little too early to say.


Right now I want you to enjoy your holiday. We’ve got a lot of action-packed markets that will probably continue right after the holiday as they open tomorrow morning and heading into June. I see lots of volatility and lots of trading opportunities.

So stay tuned. This is Larry. Again, have a nice holiday today and a good week.


Larry Edelson has over 34 years of investing experience with a focus in the precious metals and natural resources markets. His Real Wealth Report (a monthly publication) and Power Portfolio provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management.

For more information on Real Wealth Report, click here.
For more information on Power Portfolio, click here.




Personal Finance

IMPORTANT --- Dow Theory Confirmation

Posted by Richard Russell - Dow Theory Letters

on Sunday, 27 May 2012 12:56

On this Memorial Day Long Weekend Richard Russell has declared a Dow Theory Non-Confirmation and a Primary Bear Market.  He notes that the D-J industrial Average high of 13,279.32 on May 1, 2012 was not confirmed by the Transports, then when the two averages turned down and broke below their April lows "This action confirmed that a primary bear market is in progress -- it was a textbook bear signal."

Russell further thinks that the Bear Signal indicates that Greece will leave the Euro, then Spain, then whole Eurozone will likely crumble. Also that although Gold will probably be under pressure or awhile, a major bull market/move is to follow. 



Timing & trends

Mark Leibovit: How To Profit On This Current Seasonality in Markets

Posted by Mark Leibovit via Don Vialoux

on Friday, 25 May 2012 08:26

Ed Note: Mike's Guest Tomorrow is David Bensimon:

Mark Leibovit spells it out in a quick 6 minute comment below. In short, Mark went on a Sell Signal back on March 5th and continues to think Markets are in a normal Negative Seasonal pullback that has further to go. Mark thinks there is still time for the bears to bring the Stock Market, as measured by the S&P 500, down below the recent low of 1292 and if he were an investor he would remain in Cash waiting for a confirmed low sometime between now and July. 

As for agressive traders he would be biased to the short side.  

Click on either image or HERE for all the details:

Picture 3

Click on image or HERE for all the details:


Picture 1


Gold & Precious Metals

Dennis Gartman: Gold Puts In Short-Term Low

Posted by Dennis Gartman via Hard Assets Investor

on Friday, 25 May 2012 06:52

Gold guru says reduced short and long positions, need for cash have pushed the yellow metal down to a new short-term bottom.

Hard Assets Investor: What’s your take on what gold is doing right now?

Dennis Gartman: A lot of people have been taken out of their positions. You can see the change in the makeup of open interest. Speculators have reduced their positions by more than 100,000, 125,000 contracts. Their long positions have been reduced to minimal levels. On the other hand, institutions that tend to be naturally short have reduced their positions by the same amount. So the stronger hands are less short; the weaker hands are demonstrably less long. And I think you’ve seen a low.

HAI:Gold also doesn’t seem to have its inflation hedge?

Gartman: Well, first of all, there’s not much inflation to be concerned about, at least if you believe the government’s statistics, and the market has to take the government’s statistics as face value. So if you’re looking at gold as a hedge against inflation, there isn’t any inflation.

And it is bothersome also that if you look at the monetary aggregates — and the one aggregate that I look at is the St. Louis Fed’s adjusted-monetary base. It has been falling since last June, and falling rather sharply. Those who think that inflation is going to be created by rising monetary aggregates are simply wrong. That’s not a problem to be concerned about for the reasonable foreseeable future. And to be quite honest, the foreseeable future is probably — let’s see, this is Monday the 21st — the foreseeable future is Monday, the 28th.

HAI: What is the biggest influence on gold right now?

Gartman: I think it’s uncertainty and marginal liquidation. I think it’s weakness in stocks that has forced the selling of something and I think stocks are inordinately cheap. I don’t think they’re going to get much cheaper. As stocks have fallen, sometimes investors are being forced to sell things they would not like to sell. And you almost always can sell gold. It’s always liquid.

HAI: What is your take on the Treasury market right now?

Gartman: Everybody thinks it’s ready to drop, and it continues to go up. It continues to make newer highs. Rates continue to make newer lows. And anybody who is short has had uncommon discomfort over the course of the past three years, two years, one year, one month. You can write this down: The bond market will break when it breaks. And it won’t break an instant before then. And if you miss the top by a month and a half, if you miss the top by two months, if you miss the top in the bond market by six months, you’ll be fine.

HAI: What do you see as a safe-haven investment right now?

Gartman: I’m amused that people call gold a safe haven. It’s not a safe haven.

HAI: Why do you say that, because of the volatility?

Gartman: It’s because of the volatility, absolutely. Safe should be nonvolatile. There are very few things that are nonvolatile right now. The only thing that seems to be nonvolatile is Treasury securities of less than one-year duration.

...read page 2 & 3 HERE


Stocks & Equities

Long Term Perspective & The Massive Dow Bear Market

Posted by ChartoftheDay.com

on Friday, 25 May 2012 06:46


For some perspective on the long-term performance of the stock market, today's chart presents the Dow priced in another global currency -- gold (i.e. the Dow / gold ratio). For example, it currently takes less than a mere eight ounces of gold to 'buy the Dow' which is considerably less than the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999. Priced in gold, the Dow has been in a massive 12-year bear market. Recently, the downtrend of the Dow (priced in gold) has slowed to its slowest pace since peaking at the end of the previous century. In fact, the Dow (priced in gold) is now testing resistance of its reduced downtrend channel thanks in part to a significant correction in gold itself.


Will the Dow crash? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron's recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.


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