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Jim Rogers: Paramount Advice to All Investors


Posted by Jim Rogers via Michael Campbell's Money Talks

on Monday, 29 November 1999 17:00

In the Investment World, Rogers is remarkable. Unusually gifted. He is a legend. 
 
He first became recognized when his Quantum Fund averaged 420% a year over a 10 year period while the S&P 500 averaged just 5% a year. More recently Rogers forecasted the China Boom and the Commodity Boom well before they began. 
 
On May 2012 he remarked during an interview with Forbes Magazine that "there’s going to be a huge shift in American society, American culture, in the places where one is going to get rich. The stock brokers are going to be driving taxis. The smart ones will learn to drive tractors so they can work for the smart farmers. The farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis.
 

Jim Rogers: Paramount Advice to All Investors

 
 
 1. To avoid making mistakes in this and future investment markets keep an eye on the Federal Reserve and Washington. 
 
"Mr. Bernanke has no clue about economics or currencies, and no clue about how markets work. You have to be very careful and watch those guys. Many people for some reason have some kind of faith, even worship of the Central Bank like they know what they are doing. Its has only been in the past few decades people even knew who Central Bankers were. Nobody knew about these guys 100 years, 80 years ago yet know they have become exalted and that is a bubble. 
 
Fortunately Central Bankers are going to pop and this particular crisis may well lead to it. In America we've had 3 Central Banks, the first two disappeared and this one will too in my view. They are making such horrible mistakes. "
 
 2. "The other thing to watch out for is please don't follow the crowd. When everybody is doing something, especially these days, you have got to go the other way."  Gold was up 12 years in a row. "I know of no asset in World History that has been up twelve years without a decline. So Gold has been acting very very strange in the last twelve years and It had to go down for a while. Well it has." 
 
"Be very very careful when something is accepted, this is age old advice but it is especially true in the markets today. Like the Japanese Yen right now, when over 90% are bearish then you have to go the other way." Jim is long the Japanese Yen. He knows he may not be right but he knows he will have made an intelligent decision. 
 
3. "There is always Extraordinary Change Going On." Rogers goes further and says that there has been no time in his life when there hasn't been "Change Confusion & Complexity".  
 
streetsmartsWriting is his book Street Smarts he makes the point that:
 
"You can take any year you want in history, then look at the world 15 years later and it is nothing, NOTHING,  like it was before"
 
As an example in 1930, 40, 50 we had Depression,  then War, followed by the beginning of suburban America. Just dramatic changes. "Nothing we know today , everything we think is true today is going to have changed 10, 15, 19 years from now. It always, always, always has been and always will be."
 
4.  " The world changed in the 1920's, 30's,as Capital moved from the UK to the US exacerbated by a financial crisis and mistakes made by the politicians. We have another change taking place in World History right now. This time Capital is moving from the largest Debtor Nations to the largest Creditor Nations in the world  now which are China, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan. 
 
The assets are in Asia, you know who the debtors are. You just have to look out the window and you will see some of it."
 
5. "This is the first time in recorded History when nearly every Major Central Bank is printing money trying to debase their currency." Japan was first, the US second, then the British followed. We have a lot of money being printed around the world. "If you ask me the US has been the major beneficiary because people are afraid of other currencies at the moment." I expect this to end very badly because throughout history when you have had artificial money printing it has ended very badly in the country that it has happened. But this time it is happening in the whole World!"
 
"Some people are having a lot of fun right now. If you give me a trillion dollars I will show you a very good time. But I don't think it is going to last."
 
I hope you are worried, you should be."
 
 

About Jim Rogers

In the Investment World, Rogers is remarkable. Unusually gifted. He is a legend. 
 
He first became recognized when his Quantum Fund averaged 420% a year over a 10 year period when the S&P 500 averaged just 5% a year. More recently Rogers forecasted the China Boom and the Commodity Boom well before they began. 
 
On May 2012 he remarked during an interview with Forbes Magazine that "there’s going to be a huge shift in American society, American culture, in the places where one is going to get rich. The stock brokers are going to be driving taxis. The smart ones will learn to drive tractors so they can work for the smart farmers. The farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis.
 


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Timing & trends

U.S. Bond And Small Cap Stock Soaring Together?


Posted by Chris Vermeulen - The Gold & Oil Guy - The Gold & Oil Guy

on Monday, 29 November 1999 17:00

U.S. stock markets just keep going higher and higher! How much higher will they go? I am forecasting another 25% higher for U.S. stocks! The ‘bullish trend’ from the breakout continues, as expected. Breadth has become strong, once again, including a new all-time high on the SPX Advance/Decline line to match the new all-time high for the SPX. My breath thrust index reissued another buy for the SPX on May 31st, 2017. Once the markets wake up and realize that there will be no U.S. tradewars, they will then begin their assent.

ADLINE:SPX Daily Chart
ADLINE:SPX Daily Chart

THE BIG PICTURE



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Mike's Content

MC Big Implications For The US dollar, Stocks & Positives For Canada


Posted by Michael Campbell

on Wednesday, 22 December 972 09:27

One of the main themes on Money Talks since 2010 has been the breakup of the EU and the demise of the European Welfare State Model. That process has already pushed trillions of Euro's into the US and to a lesser extent Canada. Two more significant signs occurred this week....find out the 2 signs HERE

european-flag



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Personal Finance

Jim Rogers: Wall Street is wrong, 'you should put all your eggs into one basket'


Posted by Jim Rogers via The Economic Times

on Monday, 29 November 1999 17:00

undefinedDiversification is generally considered one of the basic tenets of investing and financial planning. Owning a mix of assets, ideally with a low correlation – including, stocks, bonds, real estate and gold, for example – is Investing 101.

That is… unless you’re one of the world’s most famous investors.

I recently sat down with Jim Rogers and asked for his thoughts on global markets, what he’s buying now, where bubbles might be forming and… asset allocation. 

Jim doesn’t buy into the cult of asset allocation.

“Well, I know that people are taught to diversify. But diversification is just that’s something that brokers came up with, so they don’t get sued,” Jim told me. Then he added, “If you want to get rich… You have to concentrate and focus.”

This obviously goes against conventional thinking. But this kind of thinking is what made Jim one of the world’s most successful investors. He co-founded the Quantum Fund – one of the world’s most successful hedge funds – which saw returns of 4200 percent in ten years.

He quit full-time investing in 1980 and went on to travel the world a few times. He also wrote several books about what he saw and learned. Even if you’re not a travel or money junkie and know little about finance, these are some of the most educational and entertaining books you’ll ever read about investing.

...continue reading HERE

 

...also from Martin Armstrong: The War on Cash – One Giant Leap Forward For Government



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Bonds & Interest Rates

DANGER AHEAD FOR U.S. GOVT: Unable To Service Debt As Interest Rates Surge


Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSRocco Reportt

on Monday, 29 November 1999 17:00

The U.S. Government is in serious trouble when interest rates rise.  As interest rates rise, so will the amount of money the U.S. Government will have to pay out to service its rapidly rising debt.  Unfortunately, interest rates don’t have to increase all that much for the government’s interest expense to double.

According to the TreasuryDirect.gov website, which came back online after being down for nearly a month, reported that the average interest rate paid on U.S. Treasury Securities increased from 2.2% in November 2016 to 2.3% in December 2017.  While this does not seem like a significant change, every increase of 0.1% in the average interest rate, the U.S. Government has to pay an additional $20.5 billion in interest expense (based on the $20.5 trillion in total U.S. debt).

Already, the U.S. Government is off to a BANG as it’s interest expense paid for the first three months of the year increased to $147 billion compared to $139 billion in the same period last year:

US-Oct-DEC-2015-2017-Interest-Expense

This chart was taken directly from the TreasuryDirect.gov site, with my added annotations.  As we can see, the U.S. Government paid $126.5 billion to service their debt Oct-Dec 2015.  We must remember, the U.S. Government Fiscal period starts in October.  So, in just two years, the interest expense the U.S. Government paid for Oct-Dec increased more than $20 billion.  Now, what is interesting is that the average interest rate in Dec 2015 was 2.33%, but in Dec 2017 it was only 2.31%.  Thus, it was actually lower, even though the interest expense increased by $20 billion.

The reason for the $20 billion increase in the interest expense during Oct-Dec 2017 versus Oct-Dec 2015 was due to a more than $2 trillion increase in U.S. debt over that two-year period.  So, the U.S. Government will have a serious problem as interest rates really start to rise… and that doesn’t even include the continued increase in total U.S. debt.

This next chart shows the increase in U.S. debt, while the average interest rate fell from an average 6.6% in 2000 to a low of 2.2% in 2016:



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