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Experience: 89 Year Old Legend Goes Bearish


Posted by Richard Russell - Dow Theory Letters

on Friday, 11 May 2012 09:46

Hey, I don't like what I see on the Lowry's statistics. Buying Power (demands) has been slipping, and Selling Pressure (supply) has been creeping higher. The negative spread between the two has widened from a recent 130 to yesterday's 145. In the meantime my PTI, after forming a double top, has failed to go to a new high. Yesterday my PTI was 5 bullish by a mere 5 points. 

Verdict -- be OUT of all stocks and be very patient. I don't like the undertone of this market one bit; I think the stock market is under subtle and quiet distribution. Holding any stocks over time will be a loser -- so it's simple -- don't hold them; stay in cash and gold coins until I think of something better. I also like the Permanent Portfolio PRPFX, which is a reasonable place to park your assets. 

The market has been quiet for a while. I think something big is coming up, and I don't think it will be good. Caution is the watchword now. This is the quiet before the storm. I note that the VIX (the "fear index") has been quietly and slowly rising to where it is 19.55 today. The chart below of the VIX shows the VIX climbing above its 50-day moving average. MACD is giving a "buy" signal.

Yesterday I went to Costco for the first time -- to buy a pair of eye glasses. The place is amazing. It's built like an aircraft hanger or dome, severe, lots of room, high ceilings, no frills at all. At each long aisle there was some one handing out free food samples. I ended up eating a full free dinner, and it was good at that. I bought three pairs of eye glasses with frames for $375, about one third of what it would cost me at a La Jolla oculist.

Costco had just about every thing you can think of for modern living -- at bargain prices -- vacation trips, vacuum cleaners, pots and pans, deck furniture, awnings, flowers. I wondered whether this is the real trend of the future. Membership to Costco is fifty bucks a year for two people. Why would a person shop any place else? The only problem is quantity. Everything for sale from razor blades to Ensure to T-shirts to frozen burgers comes in quantities -- you can't get out of the place for less than three hundred bucks. Take a trip to Costco and you'll get an idea of how much sheer "stuff" is being manufactured in the world today. Who the hell is going to use it all? Hopefully 1.3 billion Chinese will use it.

Gold continues to be a maddening mystery. Yesterday, to the consternation of gold shorts, Dec. gold closed below 1600 (it did it again today). I'm increasingly convinced that the only safe way to own gold is in bullion coin form. In that way, you've got your gold and you're not tempted to trade it. You hold onto it, and you take it to your grave -- or give it to your kids or your sweetie. 

In that way, you own a position in gold (the size of which is up to you) and you forget about it. It's like a house that you like and that you own free and clear. You don't call your real estate agent every week to ask what your house is worth. You bought it, you like it, it's a source of pleasure, and you don't stay awake nights worrying about it.

Lately, I hear a lot of gold-naysayers boasting that "I own gold for insurance purposes only, although I'm certainly NOT a gold-bug." Of course, the same people feel happy as a lark when their gold goes up in price. 

I have subscribers who loaded up on bullion ten and even 25 years ago. They write to tell me that those purchases have changed their lives, although they never would have believed it when they were buying their gold at rock-bottom prices.

"Buy your gold and look away. Your buys will look brilliant some other day."

 

Interested in Subscribing? Go HERE

 

Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron's during the late-'50s through the '90s. Through Barron's and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-'66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-'74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974.

The Letters, published every three weeks, cover the US stock market, foreign markets, bonds, precious metals, commodities, economics --plus Russell's widely-followed comments and observations and stock market philosophy.

In 1989 Russell took over Julian Snyder's well-known advisory service, "International Moneyline", a service which Mr. Synder ran from Switzerland. Then, in 1998 Russell took over the Zweig Forecast from famed market analyst, Martin Zweig. Russell has written articles and been quoted in such publications as Bloomberg magazine, Barron's, Time, Newsweek, Money Magazine, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Reuters, and others. Subscribers to Dow Theory Letters number over 12,000, hailing from all 50 states and dozens of overseas counties.

A native New Yorker (born in 1924) Russell has lived through depressions and booms, through good times and bad, through war and peace. He was educated at Rutgers and received his BA at NYU. Russell flew as a combat bombardier on B-25 Mitchell Bombers with the 12th Air Force during World War II.

One of the favorite features of the Letter is Russell's daily Primary Trend Index (PTI), which is a proprietary index which has been included in the Letters since 1971. The PTI has been an amazingly accurate and useful guide to the trend of the market, and it often actually differs with Russell's opinions. But Russell always defers to his PTI. Says Russell, "The PTI is a lot smarter than I am. It's a great ego-deflator, as far as I'm concerned, and I've learned never to fight it."

Letters are published and mailed every three weeks. We offer a TRIAL (two consecutive up-to-date issues) for $1.00 (same price that was originally charged in 1958). Trials, please one time only. Mail your $1.00 check to: Dow Theory Letters, PO Box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038 (annual cost of a subscription is $300, tax deductible if ordered through your business).

IMPORTANT: As an added plus for subscribers, the latest Primary Trend Index (PTI) figure for the day will be posted on our web site -- posting will take place a few hours after the close of the market. Also included will be Russell's comments and observations on the day's action along with critical market data. Each subscriber will be issued a private user name and password for entrance to the members area of the website.

Investors Intelligence is the organization that monitors almost ALL market letters and then releases their widely-followed "percentage of bullish or bearish advisory services." This is what Investors Intelligence says about Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters: "Richard Russell is by far the most interesting writer of all the services we get." Feb. 19, 1999.

Below are two of the most widely read articles published by Dow Theory Letters over the past 40 years. Request for these pieces have been received from dozens of organizations. Click on the titles to read the articles.

"Rich Man, Poor Man (The Power of Compounding)"

"The Perfect Business"



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Timing & trends

Mark Leibovit's Pre-Market Platinum Newsletter Clip


Posted by Mark Leibovit via VRTrade Platinum Newsletter

on Friday, 11 May 2012 03:50

STOCKS - ACTION ALERT - BEAR - MARKET IN CORRECTION.


If you're been following my recommendations, you know that I've been short or long inverse ETFs in the financial sector. I have been short JP Morgan, long FAZ (the triple inverse ETF for the financial sector), and short the financial ETF, XLF. So, the 'surprise' we received yesterday afternoon from Jaime Dimon at JP Morgan Chase comes as no surprise to me. As you know, I am no fan of JP Morgan or Jaime Dimon. My position is that JP Morgan acts the Fed's right hand in executing its market manipulation objectives. Acting in behalf of their 'client', JP Morgan does the Fed's bidding (dirty work) which includes intervening, as needed, in the European markets and suppressing the price of gold and silver by selling naked contracts what I've often referred to herein as the 'phony' paper market at the CME/COMEX. Jaime Dimon is almost a clandestine Fed Governor. Apparently, they (he) screwed up and incorrectly hedged their positions when executing instructions from Bernanke. When the light of day finally shines on all of this, it will the ammunition that will end the Fed as we know it. Ron Paul will have his victory. As you know, I support this and have been adamant antagonist since I read the landmark work by G. Edward Griffin - 'The Creature from Jekyll Island'. As you know, Jekyll Island, Georgia was the location where the clandestine planning for the creation of the Federal Reserve occurred over 100 years ago. When Bernanke loses his job I nominate Ron Paul to be the interim Fed Chairman during the period in which it is dissolved. Jaime Dimon will need to be looking for a new job and a new partner. The system needs what I term an 'enema'. Hopefully, this JP Morgan affair will be a step in the right direction in a desperately needed cleansing process - a process which I don't think will occur overnight, but there is always a first good step in any worthwhile endeavor.

I remain positioned on the short side and we'll take it a day at a time. We all know Bernanke and Geithner will try and pull a rabbit out of a hat and attempt to get these equity markets moving again to the upside to help re-elect our Marxist President. For the sake of the U.S., our religious freedoms, our economic freedoms and for the sake of our children, I pray he is handsomely defeated - though, frankly, Romney may only be the lesser of two evils. The SPX touched 1343.13 on Wednesday. My next downside target is 1320 followed by 1292 in the S&P 500 and we'll take it from there.

If you've forgotten about how Iceland moved to solve its own financial crisis, I suggest you ready the short piece below at the end of this newsletter. Though I do not agree with all their actions, bold steps here in the U.S. somewhat along those lines is desperate needed otherwise we're going to end up in the same place again and again. The first step has to be the dismantling of the Federal Reserve - its 100 years of tyranny and destruction must come to an end!

Let me share with you a short exerpt from Ben Bernanke's bio as it appears in Wikipedia. I think you will find it eye-opening. It is part of the powerpoint presentations I give at varios speaking engagements.

"Bernanke is particularly interested in the economic and political causes of the Great Depression, on which he has published numerous academic journal articles. Before Bernanke's work, the dominant monetarist theory of the Great Depression was Milton Friedman's view that it had been largely caused by the Federal Reserve's having reduced the money supply. In a speech on Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday (November 8, 2002), Bernanke said, "Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna [Schwartz, Friedman's coauthor]: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again." Bernanke has cited Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in his decision to lower interest rates to zero. Anna Schwartz however is highly critical of Bernanke and wrote an opinion piece in the New York Times advising Obama against his reappointment to Chair of Federal Reserve."

--------------------------------------------

GOLD - ACTION ALERT - BULL


Haven't you noticed that when economic news, whether it's related to the European meltdown or evening this morning's JP Morgan revelation, gold and silver sell-off when presumably they should be rallying? Folks, this is the dirty work of the Plunge Protection Team acting through JP Morgan (and possibly others). It's counter-intuitive. By attempting to knock down price by hitting the bids on the phony paper market (futures market), they are distracting attention away from what is rightfully one of only safe places for you money - gold and silver. Physical assets, folks! That's the answer. When the financial system melts down again (and it will) think about where you want to keep your hard-earned savings. Do you trust the banks (like JP Morgan) who are basically speculators and traders and whose very existence depends on the Federal Reserve's "printing press"? Do you trust brokerage firms like MF Global in the futures business or even household names in the stock brokerage business to be there when you need to withdraw your investment dollars? These are the questions you have to ask. What we've learned from the financial meltdown in 2008-2009 is there is no truly safe asset, but I feel a lot better holding a physical asset such as gold, silver, real estate (land), farmland or even your home over keeping assets in the slimy hands of Wall Street. My recommendation is to keep your assets (including currencies) clearly diversified among firms, among locations both domestic and foreign and category. Trust no one for more than you afford to lose. These are treacherous times even though the news is often manipulated or not reported to present just the opposite picture.

Meanwhile, gold and silver remain in a correction. I have been steadfast in my BUY signal even though I recognize the 'powers that be' may be temporarily successful in driving down prices. Why? Because they will lose big time and because ultimately surprises will be to the upside. The next big target (support) area is the December 29 low at 1521.80 in Gold and 26.08 in Silver. With the mining shares showing some decent upside action here, let's see if the physical metals will chime in as well. Keep in mind a 'May' bounce may be nothing more than a 'May' bounce within the context of the bigger near term corrective cycle. New lows in gold (under 1521.80) will clearly generate further selling. I presume this is what Bernanke and his cohorts are hoping for. But, their strategy is two-pronged. Though they may drive it lower, they are also seeking to enlarge their holdings at lower prices. This, I believe, is one of the reasons China has temporarily played along with the PPT's suppression scheme. Where could we be headed? Such a move could place gold anywhere from 1400 down to 1275. Not the best of outcomes, but one we psychologically have to be prepared for. On the positive front, should we cross back above 1792.40, I think the chances of then see new highs increases immensely with potential to first the 2200-2300 range.

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BONDS - ACTION ALERT - BULL

Despite the risk of higher interest rates down the road, I believe the perceived flight to safety will be the prevailing motivator over the near-term. Long-term, bonds are dangerous, so I only see them as a near-term positive.

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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS

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FRIDAY MAY 11

April Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

April Canadian Employment
8:30 AM ET

May Michigan Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

Earnings Reports:
Nvidia

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Gold & Precious Metals

Michael Campbell: Very Interesting Read. Big Concept


Posted by John Mauldin via Michael Campbell

on Friday, 11 May 2012 03:47

A Leaderless World

I recently had a chance to speak at a conference where Dr. Ian Bremmer spoke after me. I was very impressed with his thought process and asked him to give me an outline of his speech to share with you for this week's Outside the Box. It's a shorter version of his powerhouse book, Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World. I highly recommend it.

And what, you're asking, is a "G-Zero world"? In a word, it's a leaderless world. A world in which, as Bremmer says, "Not so long ago, America, Western Europe and Japan were the world's powerhouses. Today, they're struggling to recover their dynamism…. But nor are rising powers like China, India, Brazil, Turkey, the Gulf Arabs and others ready to take up the slack…. If not the West, the rest, or the institutions where they come together, who will lead? The answer is, no one."

And that means the world's big problems won't get addressed as effectively as they should, as long as the leadership vacuum persists. Talk about Muddling Through!

This book by Bremmer is going to make a difference, and I'm not the only one who thinks so–

"Ian Bremmer combines shrewd analysis with colorful storytelling to reveal the risks and opportunities in a world without leadership. This is a fascinating and important book." –FAREED ZAKARIA

"Every Nation for Itself is a provocative and important book about what comes next. Ian Bremmer has again turned conventional wisdom on its head." –NOURIEL ROUBINI

Tonight I am in Chicago, where I spoke at the CFA conference this morning. It went well. I will try to get a link for you later. It hasn't been all work, either. David Rosenberg, Barry Ritholtz, and I all had dinner gigs, but we met up at the bar and just hung out for about three hours. Got to love O'Doul's NA beer. Not quite the same as a good chardonnay but healthier for me.

I will hit the send button as I have to get up for a breakfast meeting with Sam Zell. We have never met and I am looking forward to it. He is quite the legend. I will give you an update on the conference next weekend. The reviews are coming in quite strong. It was interesting to see the European elections after the analysis we were given. There is so much that seems up in the air. You can almost feel the changes coming. I feel like the kid in the back of the car on a long road trip: "Are we there yet?"

Your holding out for a world that works analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
JohnMauldin@2000wave.com">JohnMauldin@2000wave.com



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Personal Finance

A Letter from Canada’s #1 Financial Talk Show Host


Posted by Peter Grandich via Grandich.com

on Friday, 11 May 2012 02:33

I Really Don’t Want To Do This But It Could Really Improve Your Investment Returns - Michael Campbell via Money Talks

.....continued:

I hate getting junk mail so let me start by saying that if you’re not interested in taking advantage of the most successful investment strategy I personally use then don’t read another word – and please forgive the interruption.

If you are still reading then let me help you decide if what I am about to tell you is of interest to you. I am talking about a method I use regularly to increase the rate of return in the “solid growth and income” section of my portfolio. For example – and this is NOT a recommendation – if you wanted to increase the income from owning the Bank of Montreal common shares ($57), which currently pay a 4.8% dividend to something in the order of 8% then all you would have to do is to sell call options. At today’s prices you could sell someone the right to buy the stock from you at $60 any day until December 21, 2012. If they decide to buy it from you your annualized return would be over 15%. If they don’t buy it form you your annualized rate of return is 9% – with an opportunity to raise it further by selling another call option.

Sound confusing? Well that’s why I have agreed to do a workshop on the selling of put and call options. I don’t want to do it. It’s going to take a lot of work putting together a program that people will not only be able to understand but will also be able to implement immediately. And let me be clear, I have no problem whatsoever if you don’t want to come. I am doing this workshop to fulfill one of my own goals of doing whatever I can to help people to improve their investment performance and secure their financial future.

It kills me to talk to people or read their emails and know that they are not taking advantage of the most effective method I know to improve their investment returns. I am not talking about a short-term homerun strategy. I am talking about pushing your return up from that 2, 3, 4% range to something above 10% and more with the use of a lower risk strategy. And one I might add that the investment industry does a very poor job of utilizing.

By the way, selling calls as I have described above is only one of the strategies I’m going to explain. The other main strategy deals with selling put options with the goal of acquiring quality stocks at 10% or more below the current market price. Let me give you another quick example. Let’s say you were interested in buying gold by using the gold ETF, GLD, but you’re worried it’s going to drop further. Yet at the same time you think that over time gold is going up and you don’t want to miss the move. One way I have solved that dilemma personally – and made a lot of money – is to sell a put, which means I have sold someone the right to sell me GLD at a specific price for a specific time.

For example, as I write this GLD is selling at $1600. Right now I can sell someone the right to sell me GLD at $1600 any day up until January 18th next year and I will receive $102 per ounce. In other words if he sells me the gold my cost will be $1498 – and if he doesn’t sell it to me (because he could sell gold for more in the open market), then I keep the $102 per ounce he paid me. And I can sell another put.

Again, confusing? Well that’s why I am doing the workshop. It is a workshop that deals with improving the yield on stocks you already own and paying less for stocks you want to own. My bet is that after you attend you will say,  “why the hell didn’t someone tell me about this sooner.” In my opinion they should have but because way too many in the investment business don’t use these strategies I thought I’d better do something about it.

Don’t worry if you don’t have a clue about this stuff. The workshop is going to be split in two. I am going to start with a pre-workshop seminar to teach the basics of “put” and “call” options for people who aren’t familiar with options. We’ll take a break and then I’ll start with the main workshop detailing the strategies I personally use.

I want everyone to leave with a clear understanding and being able to immediately implement the strategies if they so chose.

Anyways, you can decide if this is for you. What I can tell you is that using puts and calls in the way I will be outlining has been my most effective strategy in this market for a number of years. I have done shockingly well with it.

I think it is ridiculous that in this market environment of extreme volatility and low interest rates that you don’t have every strategy available to help you succeed but that’s up to you. You can take a couple of hours to learn these strategies or not. I just wanted to do my job and make the information available. And I can honestly say, I can’t see myself doing this again.

I wish you all the best,

Michael Campbell

PS Originally High Performance Events were going to charge $295 – and to be honest I said that it was worth a heck of a lot more. I boasted to them that I could make that money back almost immediately but I also want to make it more affordable. So I ask them to see if they could get some sponsors to offset some of the costs. Plus we donate money to Special Olympics after every event I do.

So they went out and got Disnat, McLeod Williams, Kiska Metals and the Watermark at Sechelt on board, which enables us to offer the following ticket package.

Date: May 30 , 2012

Place: Sheraton Wall Centre Vancouver

Time: Per-Workshop Option Basics – 6:00 pm to 6:40 Options to Increase Your Investment Return Workshop  7:00 to 9:00 pm.

Price: $179 per ticket which includes :

•           3 free months free subscription to Money Talks exclusive Commentary  Service that features a weekly comment from Michael plus exclusive contributions from Martin Armstrong, Mark LeibovitSteve Briese, Bob Hoye, and Don Coxe.

•           Unlimited access to the video recording of the event, which enables you to review everything at your leisure. This will retail for $119 but is included with the ticket.

•           Plus we have arranged for follow-up seminars with Disnat further outlining how to use options. Complimentary for workshop attendees.

http://moneytalks.net/how-to-use-options-to-invest.html

Posted in All Posts by Peter Grandich.

MC



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Energy & Commodities

The Commodity Megatrend


Posted by Rockstone

on Thursday, 10 May 2012 11:28

2366771-13365679718837125-Rockstone origin

    "The most valuable commodity I know of is information." (Gordon Gecko in "Wall Street" by Oliver Stone)

Commodities have experienced a renaissance after the bursting of the internet bubble at the end of the 20th century. The new and long-term upward trend began with most commodities in late 1990s and already lasts nearly 15 years. During this time, most commodity prices manifold strongly. The following table presents the maximum price increases of selected commodities since 1999:

2366771-13365680134174497-Rockstone

Indeed, these were all pretty formidable price increases (except of natural gas) - however, also frightening at the same time. Formidable of course for investors who diagnosed correctly and timely the start of the bull market in commodities now sitting on luscious profits potentially chilling the champagne now. Yet simultaneously frightening, because what if the boom has come to an end? Are those formidable profits on the verge of being vanished into thin air? Wouldn't it be better to sell and realize profits?

Potential new investors face similar frightening questions: Getting in now? What if the all-time highs are already behind us? What if the bubble was punctured recently and is ready to burst now? What if the globalized world economies are standing on somewhat healthy feet again after the successfully passed finance, euro and Greece crises? Shouldn't one buy when the blood flows ankle-high and sell when the corks are popping? Is the stuff with the blood already behind us or still in front of us?

Furthermore, a highly used argument against commodities is that they can bring extreme profits solely thanks to an increased volatility that is driven by short-sighted speculators, hedge funds and other kinds of grasshoppers. An increased volatility - per definition a large price range - is also valued negatively as being unpredictable like the tempers of a diva. And when comparing with other "classical investments", the risk-reward ratio is said to be not as prettily balanced as with bonds, stocks or fixed-income securities.

However, the Yale University calculated and empirically prove that in the long run, commodities yield an average profit of 11% per year, which is about the same as for stocks. Yet the risk is significantly lower with commodities than with stocks. This study was completed in 2004, thus at a time when the commodity boom just started and the real strong price increases were to follow.

To Read More CLICK HERE



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Trading Basics – Sizing Your Stock Positions

You’ve done your analysis and are ready to take the trade. Next question is how much do you buy? The tendency is to buy what you can afford...

- posted by Tyler Bollhorn

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