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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold: Timing and Targets From One of the Best


Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 28 March 2012 18:28

There were two back-to-back directional changes for February and March. The computer was dead right AGAIN. February went up, and March went down. Even the Panic Cycle hit on target. On top of that, the decline was a perfect double 8.6 frequency of 17.2 days. Perhaps those who like to try to take shots and say the 8.6 frequency is a bunch of bull, yet offer no empirical evidence to support their claim just opinion, when the Dow Jones Industrials fell for 17.2 months. Gold just fell for 17.2 days.

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Personal Finance

10 Trading Thoughts That Should Not Be Thought


Posted by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores

on Wednesday, 28 March 2012 18:24

You can not expect to do well in the market if you look at investing in a normal way. By definition, being average is doing what most other people do and since investing is largely a psychological game, doing what other people do is only natural. Average results come from normal people acting in normal ways.

To beat the market, you have to be different.

Not necessarily in a straight jacket bouncing off padded walls different, just a little off.

Here are 10 things that may help you be a better investor, some ways to think differently from the crowd in that pursuit to achieve market dominance.

1. Do not think about making money, think about losing money - the first step toward success is accepting that losing is part of trading. You will not be right all of the time, you can not always trade your way out of a bad situation. There will be times when you simply have to walk away with a loss. The key is to keeping the losses small and manageable. When the market proves you wrong, take the loss.

2. Do not think you can average down to win - it is a logical idea, add more to a losing position with the expectation that the market must eventually go your way. Many times this strategy will work but, when it does not work, the loss may be insurmountable. The market does not eventually have to go your way.

3. Do not think that your success is entitled - you may make a great trade, pick a really great stock and have a feeling like you really have the market figured out. Forget your gloating, no one ever has the market figured out. We must always remember that we have to work as smart for the next trade as we did for the last.

4. Do not think that talent is required - making money in any trading endeavor is a small part technical skill and a big part emotional management. Learn to limit losses, let winners run and be selective with what you trade. Emotional mastery is more important than stock picking skill.

5. Do not think that you can tell the market what to do - the market does not care about you, it does not know that you want to make a profit. You are the slave, the market is your master. Be obedient and do what the market tells you to.

6. Do not think you are competing against other traders - trading success comes to those who overcome themselves, it is you and your persistent desire to break trading rules that is the ultimate adversary. What others are doing is of little consequence, only you can react to the market and achieve your success.

7. Do not think that Fear and Greed can ever be positive - in life, fear can keep us from harm, greed can give us the motivation to work hard. In the market, these two emotional forces will lead to losses. If your decisions are governed by either or both you will most certainly find that your money escapes you.

8. Do not think you will remember everything you learn - every trade provides a lesson, some valuable education on what to do and what not to do. However, it is likely that your lessons will contradict one another and lead you to forget many of them. Write down the knowledge that you accumulate, return to this trading journal so that you can retain some value from the lessons taught by the market. Remember, the market is cruel, it gives the test first and the lesson after.

9. Do not think that being right will lead to profits - you may be exactly right about what the fundamentals are and what they are worth. However, timing is everything, if your expectations for the future are ill timed, you may find yourself losing more than you can tolerate. Remember, the market can be wrong longer than you can be liquid.

10. Do not think you can overcome the laws of probability - traders tend to be gamblers when they face a loss and risk averse when the have a potential for gain. They would rather lock in a sure profit and gamble against a probable loss even if the expected value of doing so is irrational. Trading is a probability game, each decision should be made on the basis of the best expected value and not what feels best.

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Currency

The Critical USD Determines The Path of All Other Assets: Can Bernanke Break the Dollar Rally?


Posted by Toby O'Connor via GoldScents

on Wednesday, 28 March 2012 08:26

In response to a bursting real estate and credit bubble in 2007 Bernanke's solution was to crank up the printing press and flood the world with dollar bills. Unfortunately it didn't solve our problems, it only made them worse. The real estate and credit bubbles stayed busted, but that liquidity had to land somewhere. In 2008 it went straight into the energy and agricultural markets spiking the price of crude, gasoline and food. This in turn collapsed a fragile global economy that was already reeling from the real estate implosion. The end result was the exact opposite of what Benjamin intended. Instead of halting the real estate collapse he just magnified the severity of the recession.

Unfortunately Bernanke has not learned from his past mistakes. The wicked sell off in 2010 was met with QE2. The even more severe decline in 2011, which should have initiated the next bear market and started the move down into the next four year cycle low, due in 2012, was aborted with additional money printing disguised as Operation Twist and the European version LTRO. 

On the surface it looks like Bernanke has been successful. The economy has rebounded from near recession in 2011 but the unintended consequences are already in play as oil is now back above $100 a barrel and gasoline over $4 a gallon. Bernanke has steered the Titanic straight into the iceberg and now there's no turning back. If Ben doesn't raise rates and drain excess liquidity oil is going to continue to rise until it destroys the global economy again. 

The dollar is at a very important juncture. The current daily cycle topped on day 11 which is right in the middle of being left or right translated. Left translated cycles are the hallmark of a declining market (lower lows and lower highs).

left translated cycles

Right translated cycles are associated with rising markets (higher highs and higher lows). 

right translated cycles

How this cycle plays out is going to determine the path for all other assets. The current daily cycle topped right in the middle of being right or left translated. As long as the impending cycle low holds above the February intermediate degree bottom then the pattern of higher highs and higher lows will still be intact and the dollar will still be on the upside of an intermediate cycle.

dollar rising cycle scenario

In this scenario I would expect the stock market to roll over soon and begin moving down into an intermediate cycle low in late April or early May. Gold's B-wave would resume after a short counter trend bounce and continue down to test the December lows. 

gold lower scenario

If however, the dollar were to penetrate the February low it would signal that the intermediate cycle has already topped and the pattern has reversed to lower lows and lower highs. In that scenario we should see the dollar moving generally lower for the next 15-20 weeks. 

dollar falling cycle scenario

In this scenario the runaway move in the stock market could continue for another 10-15 weeks, and gold's B-wave probably bottomed on Thursday as another shortened intermediate cycle. 

gold higher scenario

This scenario would also trigger another leg higher for oil which will eventually poison the economic recovery.  

The next couple of weeks are going to be important. I'm expecting the first scenario where the dollar continues to make higher highs and higher lows, but I'm prepared to reverse course 180 degrees if Bernanke can break the rally and push the dollar through the February 29 low.

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Timing & trends

Simply "The World's Most Valuable Asset in a Time of Crisis"


Posted by Porter Stansberry via Stansberry's Investment Advisory

on Wednesday, 28 March 2012 07:00

There's one reliable, common and briliant investment that has proved to be even better than gold or silver in crisis. In fact, since 1970, a year before the U.S. went off the gold standard, this investment has easily outpaced both stocks and gold.

Farmland vs Gold - SP 500

Its certainly reasonable to expect a crisis of the US losing Reserve Currency status and the ability to fund its spending/deficits too,  given its borrowing 40 cents of every dollar it spends & Obama has added more debt than all of the Presidents in history:

Its FARMLAND: Click on either chart or HERE to read the full report

path to prosperity1



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Stocks & Equities

The Unstoppable US Equity Rally In Perspective


Posted by ZeroHedge: Charts: Deutsche Bank

on Wednesday, 28 March 2012 02:29

20120327 DB3And the S&P 500 has only risen by more than this on six other occasions after a 10% drawdown...and many of those were during some of the most crisis prone periods this nation has ever experienced.



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