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Timing & trends

Mark Leibovit: How To Profit On This Current Seasonality in Markets


Posted by Mark Leibovit via Don Vialoux

on Friday, 25 May 2012 08:26

Ed Note: Mike's Guest Tomorrow is David Bensimon:

Mark Leibovit spells it out in a quick 6 minute comment below. In short, Mark went on a Sell Signal back on March 5th and continues to think Markets are in a normal Negative Seasonal pullback that has further to go. Mark thinks there is still time for the bears to bring the Stock Market, as measured by the S&P 500, down below the recent low of 1292 and if he were an investor he would remain in Cash waiting for a confirmed low sometime between now and July. 

As for agressive traders he would be biased to the short side.  

Click on either image or HERE for all the details:

Picture 3

Click on image or HERE for all the details:

 

Picture 1



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Gold & Precious Metals

Dennis Gartman: Gold Puts In Short-Term Low


Posted by Dennis Gartman via Hard Assets Investor

on Friday, 25 May 2012 06:52

Gold guru says reduced short and long positions, need for cash have pushed the yellow metal down to a new short-term bottom.

Hard Assets Investor: What’s your take on what gold is doing right now?

Dennis Gartman: A lot of people have been taken out of their positions. You can see the change in the makeup of open interest. Speculators have reduced their positions by more than 100,000, 125,000 contracts. Their long positions have been reduced to minimal levels. On the other hand, institutions that tend to be naturally short have reduced their positions by the same amount. So the stronger hands are less short; the weaker hands are demonstrably less long. And I think you’ve seen a low.

HAI:Gold also doesn’t seem to have its inflation hedge?

Gartman: Well, first of all, there’s not much inflation to be concerned about, at least if you believe the government’s statistics, and the market has to take the government’s statistics as face value. So if you’re looking at gold as a hedge against inflation, there isn’t any inflation.

And it is bothersome also that if you look at the monetary aggregates — and the one aggregate that I look at is the St. Louis Fed’s adjusted-monetary base. It has been falling since last June, and falling rather sharply. Those who think that inflation is going to be created by rising monetary aggregates are simply wrong. That’s not a problem to be concerned about for the reasonable foreseeable future. And to be quite honest, the foreseeable future is probably — let’s see, this is Monday the 21st — the foreseeable future is Monday, the 28th.

HAI: What is the biggest influence on gold right now?

Gartman: I think it’s uncertainty and marginal liquidation. I think it’s weakness in stocks that has forced the selling of something and I think stocks are inordinately cheap. I don’t think they’re going to get much cheaper. As stocks have fallen, sometimes investors are being forced to sell things they would not like to sell. And you almost always can sell gold. It’s always liquid.

HAI: What is your take on the Treasury market right now?

Gartman: Everybody thinks it’s ready to drop, and it continues to go up. It continues to make newer highs. Rates continue to make newer lows. And anybody who is short has had uncommon discomfort over the course of the past three years, two years, one year, one month. You can write this down: The bond market will break when it breaks. And it won’t break an instant before then. And if you miss the top by a month and a half, if you miss the top by two months, if you miss the top in the bond market by six months, you’ll be fine.

HAI: What do you see as a safe-haven investment right now?

Gartman: I’m amused that people call gold a safe haven. It’s not a safe haven.

HAI: Why do you say that, because of the volatility?

Gartman: It’s because of the volatility, absolutely. Safe should be nonvolatile. There are very few things that are nonvolatile right now. The only thing that seems to be nonvolatile is Treasury securities of less than one-year duration.

...read page 2 & 3 HERE




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Stocks & Equities

Long Term Perspective & The Massive Dow Bear Market


Posted by ChartoftheDay.com

on Friday, 25 May 2012 06:46

20120525

For some perspective on the long-term performance of the stock market, today's chart presents the Dow priced in another global currency -- gold (i.e. the Dow / gold ratio). For example, it currently takes less than a mere eight ounces of gold to 'buy the Dow' which is considerably less than the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999. Priced in gold, the Dow has been in a massive 12-year bear market. Recently, the downtrend of the Dow (priced in gold) has slowed to its slowest pace since peaking at the end of the previous century. In fact, the Dow (priced in gold) is now testing resistance of its reduced downtrend channel thanks in part to a significant correction in gold itself.

Notes:

Will the Dow crash? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron's recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.


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Gold & Precious Metals

"Big Buyers are Buying Gold & Silver Stocks with Both Hands"


Posted by Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily

on Thursday, 24 May 2012 10:06

The gold stocks gapped down at the open, but rallied back to unchanged within ten minutes...and then sold off until about 10:20 a.m...which turned out to be the low for the day...and it was onwards and ever upwards from there, even though the low for gold came minutes after 12 o'clock noon Eastern time.  The HUI finished on its absolute high of the day...up 4.13%.  As I've mentioned just about every day recently, some very big [with a capital 'B']  buyers have been buying gold and silver stocks with both hands ever since the low last week.

HUI 382-470x264

And despite another loss in the metal itself, the silver stocks turned in an incredible performance as well...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 3.10%.  Most of the junior producers did much better than that.

....read the whole analysis of Yesterday in Gold & Silver HERE



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Energy & Commodities

Oil Drops After Supplies Increase to 22-Year High


Posted by Danielle Park - Comment by Bob Hoye

on Thursday, 24 May 2012 08:06

The usual parade of clueless commentators are scrambling to explain the ongoing plunge in risk assets worldwide. One of today’s “shocker” headlines is captured in the below clip: “Crude oil futures extended declines after the U.S. Energy Department said stockpiles rose to a 22 year high”. 

The global downturn is slowing world demand just as rising production continues to swamp the glut.  (Remember all that (over) investment in the oil and commodities space during the past decade?) As Euro stress escalates and the global recession advances, the risk off teeter totter favors cash, the US dollar and treasuries over risk-credit, commodities and stocks. Remember this image to help understand present dynamics. It is precisely the pattern we have seen in previous bear markets. Ed Note: Bob Hoye also argues that in the post bubble economy "the serious money that's still around goes to the most liquid items and that is gold, and it also is treasury bills in the worlds senior currency which is still the US Dollar.'

Teeter-totter-with-the-dollar-and-risk-assets1

There is a link to a clip discussing today’s oil glut at Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite HERE 



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