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Stocks & Equities

Volatility Insights: What Can You Learn From The Big Short Interest In The VIX Futures?


Posted by Volatility Surfer

on Friday, 20 January 2017 06:55

Summary

- VIX shorts are currently near a 5-year high.

- Spot VIX has been realizing low volatility.

- There is a better relationship between the net positioning and the market.

I have been a regular contributor on SA when it comes to the topic of volatility. Naturally, I receive a number of questions being posed to me in regards to various topics. However, as of late, I have been getting questions about the heavy short interest in the VIX futures and whether this means anything. Of course, the question can be posed more bluntly. Does the heavy short interest in the VIX futures mean that we are about to see a bout of increased volatility in the near future?

Now I have my opinions and thoughts. However, I also let the data educate me. In this case, I will walk through the historical data on the VIX futures with you and perhaps we can answer some questions, and perhaps we can get some more interesting questions coming out of this exercise.

Now let's look at where the VIX shorts currently stand:

526047-14848357958554265 origin

....for more and larger charts go HERE

 



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Timing & trends

Major Markets at Turning Points


Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Friday, 20 January 2017 06:28

Bonds have risen in a 35 year bull market. That bull market looks tired and probably peaked in July of 2016.

The U.S. Dollar Index recently hit 14 year highs. Has the dollar finally peaked? Has it turned downward since January 3, 2017?

Stocks have been rising since the 2009 crash lows. Rounded to the nearest point, the Dow hit 20,000. Was that enough to make a final top before a major turn downward?

Gold made an important low over a year ago but we continually hear chatter about gold falling below $1,000, perhaps to $700 or even $350. I believe it has turned upward and the chatter will dissipate.

Let’s speculate about turning points in these important markets.

T-Bonds:

The global bond market is perhaps $100 trillion. Derivatives tied to interest rates are perhaps another $500 trillion. Yes, these are big numbers and interest rates affect practically everything – student loan debt, consumer spending, sovereign nation borrowing, housing sales, mortgage rates, credit card rates, bank profitability, availability of credit and more.

The global bond market is the largest financial bubble in history. A crash would be important …

Examine this chart of the U.S. T-bond.

F-Bonds-768x538

....for larger charts and analysis of all Major Markets go HERE

...related:

Marc Faber: Take a Gamble on Trump



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Personal Finance

Jim ROGERS – Dollar and commodities for 2017, interest rates, inflation and why books


Posted by Jim Rogers via The Economic Times

on Thursday, 19 January 2017 07:15

This 33 minute interview is encompasses the works, and especially on Rogers belief that the agricultural markets have been depressed for many years.

"I'm still extremely optimistic about agriculture, more so than many sectors of the world economy. Buy anywhere it's raining! Anywhere that has good weather, good soil, good laws, and there are many of those around – the African continent, South America, the middle part of Asia. There are many places where there are astonishing opportunities. I'm not sure I would rush out and buy Iowa right now because it's extremely expensive. But there are lots of places where the opportunities are good" - from the Daily Bell

 

Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.

MW-DO749 Jim Ro ZG 20150624153247



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Bill Gross: Bond Fundamentals Confusing


Posted by Bil Gross - Janus Capital Group

on Thursday, 19 January 2017 06:52

"Happiness has dominated risk markets since early November and despair has characterized global bond markets."

"For 10-year Treasuries, a multiple of influences obscure a rational conclusion that yields must inevitably move higher during Trump's first year in office. When the fundamentals are confusing, however, technical indicators may come to the rescue and it's there where a super three decade downward sloping trend line for 10-year yields could be critical. Shown in the chart below, it's obvious to most observers that 10-year yields have been moving downward since their secular peak in the early 1980s, and at a rather linear rate. 30 basis point declines on average for the past 30 years have lowered the 10-year from 10% in 1987 to the current 2.40%."

USGG10YR-Index Graph

...reading Bill Gross Investment Outlook January 2017

 



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Energy & Commodities

Oil Trading Alert: Time for Drop below $50?


Posted by Nadia Simmons - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 19 January 2017 06:42

Sent to subscribers on January 19, 2017, 7:11 AM.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Wednesday, crude oil lost 2.57% after the head of the IEA warned of a significant increase in U.S. shale output as OPEC and non-OPEC producers cut output. This news negatively affected the investors’ sentiment and pushed the black gold under important support levels. What does it mean for light crude?

Let’s examine the charts below to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

2017-01-19-wtic-W-1

Yesterday, we wrote the following:



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