Bonds & Interest Rates

Technically Speaking: “Fuhgettaboutit”

Posted by Technically Speaking via Lance Roberts

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 08:57

“Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities.

In last week’s post, I did a complete sector and major market review. Not much has changed in the past week given the very quiet activity that has persisted. This lack of volatility, while not unprecedented, is extremely long in duration as noted in past weekend’s newsletter, “An Unexpected Outcome:” 

“Speaking of low volatility, the market has now gone 108-trading days without a drop of 1% for both the Dow and the S&P 500. This is the longest stretch since September of 1993 for the Dow and December of 1995 for the S&P 500.”

The issue becomes, of course, which way the market breaks when volatility returns to the market. Over the course of the last three years, in particular, those breaks have been to the downside as shown below.


...continue reading HERE

...also, Michael's Interview with Lance Roberts March 18th:

Bonds & Stocks: Looking Good With One Possible Exception


Economic Outlook

What’s Collapsing? Socialism or Capitalism?

Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 08:31

Socialism-v-Capitalism-600x337QUESTION: Many people argue it is capitalism which is collapsing not socialism. How would your respond?

ANSWER: Those people who say this is a failure of capitalism and not socialism simply are trying to come up with an excuse as to why their dreams are not coming true. Democrats champion the poor and middle class but run to the rich for money. Why would bankers and hedge funds as well as Hollywood support Democrats if they are really hated so much? The answer is rather simple. They can bribe them for loopholes and favors.

....continue reading HERE


Ponzi-Charles-18821949Why Obamacare is the Biggest Fraud in American History & Was Designed to Be Exactly That!

When we look at the markets and try to ascertain the long-term direction, we must look at politics closely, for this holds the key. First, this is a Private Wave and that means the confidence in government is collapsing. Hence, the question for the direction of stocks, gold, interest rates, and the world economy, all hinges on how fast the perception of government collapsed on a global scale. Both sides of the aisle are corrupt and rotten to the core. Republican or Democrat, they are all in this for what they personally can grab and they are incapable of doing anything right for society because power corrupts.

It was the Democrats who came up with the Social Security scheme and designed it to be exactly as a fraud that anyone in the private sector would do to jail for. They used the Ponzi Scheme model where you take money from one person and pay another so they think they have a profit and more and more people come to invest. Here they would impose a tax upon the younger generation to pay for the older generation while telling people they were paying into a retirement fund. Of course, Congress used the money to fund spending for other things and stuffed the fund with government bonds preventing it from ever investing.

....continue reading HERE





Timing & trends

Yearly Cycle Low Next Week?

Posted by SmartMoneyTracker

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 07:20

Hopefully the stock market is going to be allowed to continue correcting. This will clear out bullish sentiment and allow the stock market to complete both an intermediate and yearly cycle low. Coinciding with this, the dollar is poised to continue lower and complete a failed daily cycle.


Screen Shot 2017-03-22 at 6.59.59 AM


Gold & Precious Metals

February CPI and Gold

Posted by Arkadiusz Sieron

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 07:16

Last week, several U.S. economic reports were released. What do they imply for the gold market?

The FOMC meeting and parliamentary election in the Netherlands prevented us from covering recent economic data coming out from the U.S. Let’s catch up. First of all, inflation continued to strengthen. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the smallest rise since last summer and much below a 0.6 percent surge in January. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile energy and food categories, increased 0.2 percent, only slightly faster. However, overall CPI rose 2.7 percent on an annual basis, the highest level since early 2012. Core CPI jumped 2.2 percent over the last 12 months.

As one can see in the chart below, the overall consumer inflation rate significantly accelerated over the last several months. The inflation rate rose from 0 percent in September 2015 to almost 3 percent currently. It strengthens the hawks’ camp in the U.S. central bank, which is generally bad news for gold bulls. However, until the Fed remains behind the curve, gold may gain due to lower real interest rates.

Chart 1: CPI (blue line) and core CPI (red line) year-over-year from February 2012 to February 2017.




Real Estate

Guessing Game

Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 07:06

price-guess origOn the way up in price it was easy. Make an offer higher than list price with few conditions if any and provide the vendor with everything they wanted and voilà, you own the asset if you managed to out-guess the competitive bidders lined up on their phones. 
​Liabilities were an unimportant consideration because in a few days, a similar property would sell for even more and your balance sheet then became even more credit worthy; check and check.

On the way down, guessing the price that a vendor will agree to is still a requirement; is the vendor holding a property with too little of his own equity and perhaps reluctant to take a loss at this time, or is the property being offered for the first time in let's say the last decade? A single family detached house in Vancouver has increased in price by over 120% in the last 10 years (over 160% in Toronto). The vendor's equity position is an important clue in the guessing game.

Is the vendor attempting to sell in order to repurchase in the same market? That would suggest an end price is required CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE



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