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Stocks & Equities

Stock Trading Alert: New Rally Or More Medium-Term Fluctuations?


Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Monday, 24 April 2017 06:44

Sent to subscribers on April 24, 2017, 6:57 AM.

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and 0.0% on Friday, extending their short-term consolidation, as investors awaited quarterly corporate earnings, economic data releases, French presidential election outcome, among others. The S&P 500 index remained within its week-long consolidation along the level of 2,350, around 2% below the March 1 all-time high of 2,400.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below the level of 20,600 again, and relatively stronger technology Nasdaq Composite index remained above 5,900 mark, as it continued to trade close to its early April record high. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,350, marked by previous resistance level. The next support level is at 2,320-2,330, marked by previous short-term consolidation. The support level is also at around 2,270-2,280. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at 2,365-2,370, marked by some previous local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,380-2,400, marked by record high, among others. We can see some short-term volatility following five-month-long rally off last year's November low at around 2,100. Is this a topping pattern before medium-term downward reversal? The uptrend accelerated on March 1 and it looked like a blow-off top pattern accompanied by some buying frenzy. The S&P 500 index is trading below its medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:

1 mtiX8mL

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are very positive, with index futures currently up 1.0-1.2%. The European stock markets have gained 1.8-4.5% so far. Investors will now wait for more quarterly corporate earnings releases. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend following an overnight gap-up opening. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,365, marked by local low. The next support level is at 2,350-2,355, marked by recent consolidation. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,375, marked by recent local high. The next resistance level remains at 2,380-2,400, marked by March topping consolidation, and an all-time high slightly above 2,400 mark. Will the market break above almost two-month long consolidation? Or is this just another upward correction? We can see some medium-term negative technical divergences, but will they lead to a downward correction?



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Upleg Momentum Building


Posted by Adam Hamilton - Zeal Intelligence Intelligence

on Monday, 24 April 2017 06:37

Gold’s young upleg just enjoyed a major upside breakout, bolstering strong technicals and heralding a coming Golden Cross buy signal.  Investors have started aggressively buying gold again after record-high stock markets distracted them.  This gold upleg’s upside momentum is really building, portending accelerating gains in coming months.  Yet sentiment remains poor, with traders still quite bearish on gold.

Virtually no one is excited about gold these days.  Mainstream investors continue to ignore it like usual, while contrarians largely expect a lackluster sideways grind at best.  This apathy is the natural result of gold’s recent consolidation between late February and mid-April.  With 6+ weeks seeing no net progress, there was little to spark any enthusiasm.  Thus gold gradually faded from speculators’ and investors’ radars.

That’s exactly why consolidations and corrections exist, to rebalance sentiment.  At preceding interim highs, greed grows too intense to be sustainable.  So subsequent drifts or selloffs bleed off this greed, replacing it with apathy or fear.  That forces out most marginal traders, paving the way for the next major rally higher.  That looks to have started just over a week ago in gold, as evidenced by multiple indicators.

Gold just surged to a major technical breakout above its key 200-day moving average, which greatly strengthens its latest uptrend.  Technically-oriented traders carefully watch price action relative to this most important of moving averages.  200dma breakouts following correction-magnitude selloffs are powerful buy signals.  So funds have already started moving serious capital back into gold since that breakout.

Gold’s technicals and fundamentals are both very bullish, contrary to the lingering bearish sentiment still dogging this metal.  Let’s start on the price-action side, since that is kindling investment demand.  This first chart simply looks at gold along with its key moving averages during its young bull market birthed near the end of 2015.  Gold is now in this bull’s second major upleg, and momentum is really building.

Zeal042117A



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week


Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 22 April 2017 06:37

dow power1. Gold, Dow, & Dollar: The Big Picture

   by Morris Hubbart

Big Picture (104 WMA) Charts & Video Analysis, Juniors Key Charts & Video Analysis, Key Charts & Tactics Video Analysis, Trader Time Key Charts Video Analysis

....view & read it all HERE

2. Extreme Pessimism indicates market is near inflection point!

   by Chris Vermuelan

Big Picture (104 WMA) Charts & Video Analysis, Juniors Key Charts & Video Analysis, Key Charts & Tactics Video Analysis, Trader Time Key Charts Video Analysis

....read it all HERE

2. An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex

   by Rambus Chartology

There is a potential new pattern forming on some of the precious metals stock indexes which is only coming to light today. Before today’s price action there was only a guess of what may be forming with no confirmation. After today’s big gap breakout another piece of the puzzle is falling into place.

....read it all HERE

 



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Timing & trends

Gold, Dow, & Dollar: The Big Picture


Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 21 April 2017 11:51

Today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):
  

Big Picture (104 WMA) Charts & Video Analysis

dow power 



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Gold & Precious Metals

French Elections Preview and Gold


Posted by Arkadiusz Sieron

on Friday, 21 April 2017 09:13

APRIL 21, 2017, 10:40 AM

The first round of presidential elections in France is held on Sunday. What can we expect from that event and how can it affect the gold market?

In the recent edition of the Market Overview, we wrote that centrist Emmanuel Macron and nationalistic Marine Le Pen were expected to move on the next round. However, the situation has complicated a bit since then. As you can see on the chart below, actually four candidates have pretty good chances to advance to the next round. It’s because both hard-left Jean-Luc Melenchon and conservative Francois Fillon have gained momentum recently.

Chart 1: Opinion polls for the first round of voting (smoothed 14-day weighted moving average) updated daily from Wikipedia.

1-french-election

It’s good news for the gold market, as it means higher uncertainty. Now, Marine Le Pen is not the only terrifying candidate in town. Jean-Luc Melenchon’s economic program is similarly frightening for the financial markets. For example, he proposed to impose a 100 percent tax on those who earn above €400,000. Yup, you guessed, he is a commie and a fan of Hugo Chavez.



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