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Timing & trends

DJIA Elliott Wave View: Extension Expected


Posted by Elliottwave-Forecast.com

on Thursday, 23 February 2017 06:56

Short term Elliott wave view in DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) suggests that the rally from 1/19 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott wave impulse structure where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 20125.28, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 19784.7, and Minute wave ((iii)) remains in progress.

Internal of wave ((iii)) is showing an extension and subdivided also as an impulse structure where Minuette wave (i) ended at 20155.3, Minuette wave (ii) ended at 20015.3, Minuette wave (iii) ended at 20639.8 and Minuette wave (iv) ended at 20532.6. Index has broken above Minuette wave (iii) to confirm that wave Minuette wave (v) has started. Up from 20532.6, Subminuette wave (i) of (v) ended at 20747.6, and Subminuette wave (ii) of (v) is proposed complete at 20677.4.

Near term, while dips stay above 20541.2, expect Index to resume higher. We don't like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear in 3, 7, or 11 swing while Index remains above Minuette wave (iv) at 20532.6. If Index breaks below 20538.7, it can be an indication that Minute wave (iii) has ended, and that Index has started Minute wave (iv) pullback.

DJIA 1 hour chart

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Energy & Commodities

Jim Rogers: 2017's Best Investment Opportunities


Posted by Jim Rogers

on Wednesday, 22 February 2017 12:10

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at 10.51.43 AMSo where do you see the best opportunities now?

Agriculture has been a disaster for 30 years, but I’m very optimistic about it. There are many ways to invest: You can buy land, agricultural products, seed companies, fertilizer, tractor companies. Farmers are getting older, and in the U.S., more people study public relations than agriculture. Therein lies the opportunity: Either it’s going to get better, or we’re not going to have any food at any price. 
I’m optimistic about Russia. The Kremlin now un- derstands that they have to play by the world’s rules. 
 
I’m also short U.S. junk bonds, because interest rates will be going higher and we’ll have a worse economy. The central banks have tried to print more money, but the market is beginning to reject it, and inflation is coming back. There is going to be a lot more debt issued in the next few years, and more bonds means higher rates. 

....read the entire interview in The Globe and Mail



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Energy & Commodities

Natural Gas Bulls Crushed As Prices Tank


Posted by OilPrice.com

on Wednesday, 22 February 2017 08:28

a58ee4208e417102a513d4f21e401151Natural gas prices plunged to their lowest level since November on mild weather in the U.S., which has caused storage levels to decline at a much slower pace than expected.

Contracts for March delivery on the Nymex exchange dipped to $2.63 on February 21, down a third since December. The bearish swing has come after successive EIA reports showing a modest drawdown in gas inventory levels.

Natural gas consumption is seasonal, with spikes in demand occurring in winter months. As such, storage levels build up over the course of the year, especially in the milder months of spring and fall. Then, gas is used up in the winter. The winter of 2016 was the warmest on record, leading to a paltry drawdown in inventories. The result was a cratering of natural gasprices last year as inventories swelled following the end of winter.

....read more HERE

Related: Biggest Gasoline Glut In 27 Years Could Crash Oil Markets



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Timing & trends

The Return of Stagflation


Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Wednesday, 22 February 2017 06:54

The following graph shows the SI/GC ratio versus the S&P500 index beginning in August 1971 when President Nixon severed the final gold backing of the US dollar. Currency in circulation, debt, consumer cost of living, and most prices including gold, silver, crude oil, and the S&P rose in devalued dollar units.

I-SIGCSP-raw-768x530

The two lines follow each other over long periods, and diverge during other periods. The next graph shows the same monthly data but smoothed with a ten month moving average. I divided the graph into four sections:



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Gold & Precious Metals

Investors have a growing appetite for gold in 2017


Posted by Larry Edelson - Money & Markets

on Wednesday, 22 February 2017 06:30

In 2016, two powerful fundamental forces drove the rally in gold prices:

Force #1Negative real interest rates, as inflation accelerated while bond yields remained near record lows, and …

Force #2: Massive money printing, not by the Fed, but by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.

This year, political concerns are Trumping the fundamentals, literally, and pushing gold prices higher amid growing policy uncertainty here in the U.S. and especially in Europe.

Here at home, we have a new president who has outlined some very pro-growth policies, but Trump has been short on the details. And the devil is always in the details. Meanwhile in Europe, Brexit is moving forward as the U.K. prepares for life outside the European Union.

And major elections taking place this year in France and the Netherlands will create even more populist pressure for others to exit the EU, and pronto. Markets are already getting nervous about the growing wave of populism around the world, and that’s keeping a firm bid under gold.

So far this year, gold is pulling off a repeat performance of its trend in 2016. In fact, if you compare the trend in gold over the past six months, to the path it followed last year, the pattern looks eerily similar.

chart1s
Click image for larger view

Of course, history never repeats exactly, but it often rhymes. If this pattern holds up — and my own neural net AI forecast charts suggest it will — then I expect gold to enter a mostly sideways trading range, including a correction in the months ahead, which could retest the $1,200 level or a tad lower on the downside.

The real story, however, is not in the yellow metal itself, but in the action of gold mining stocks. I expect this is just the beginning of a major move higher for gold and silver stocks — especially the smaller, junior mining shares. Gold and silver stocks should easily outperform precious metals’ prices to the upside in the years ahead, as gold inevitably skyrockets to $5,000 or more.


Click image for larger view

In fact, the senior mining stocks could outperform by 5- or even 10-to-1 over the price of gold, itself. And select junior mining stocks will really shoot the lights out, easily gaining 20-to-1 or even 50-to1 over the yellow metal.

Right now, investors have already caught on to the outperformance of gold mining stocks, making this a dangerous time to put new money to work in the miners. Let me explain why …

Last year was a good year for gold ETFs, with investors piling into these funds. Record net inflows of $24 billion during 2016 surpassed the previous high of $22 billion in 2009, even after flows reversed briefly post-election, with $8.4 billion of outflows in November and December 2016.


Click image for larger view

In January alone, another $320 million flowed into ETFs that track the price of gold. And the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) attracted even more, $650 million of net money flows over the past month.

The trouble is, retail ETF investors are almost always late to the party. And they’re likely piling in now, just before gold enters a corrective phase, as I have forecast.

Bottom line: Expect a better buying opportunity in gold and mining stocks AFTER a near-term correction, which should take place between March and May.

Best wishes,

Larry

related: 

Gold’s Fundamentals Strengthen



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