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Real Estate

The Dangers of Gov't Cooling Real Estate


Posted by Michael Campbell

on Wednesday, 21 February 2018 07:58

 

The BC Government wants to trash the most important industry in the province in the name of affordability. An industry that has a huge workforce. Michael has the numbers and makes the case that Gov't should leave real estate alone. 

....also related from Michael: Your Moral & Intellectual Superiors

joe-ayres-vancouver-housing-rally-sunday-feb-18-2018

 



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Asset protection

Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, SP500, & GDX


Posted by Captain Ewave

on Wednesday, 21 February 2018 06:58

This analysis gives you the current position and expected future trend of Gold, the S&P500 and Gold stocks as represented by the GDX, a Gold Miners ETF which tracks the overall performance of companies involved in the gold mining industry.

The method of analysis used is the Ellliottwave theory, which measures the waves and cycles of individual markets or stocks. As Martin Armstrong says, everything is cycles, so this is a very good method of analysis invented by Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948) and practiced by many including Jack Crooks to forecast movements. It is a complicated system, but fortunately this analyst does the work. The forecasts are fascinating. - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks: 

Gold: 

Short Term Update:

While we sold off a bit last night, the big picture on the daily chart is that wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1309.00 low and we now expect to rally sharply in wave ^iii^.

Click Chart For Full Size 

golde

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is: ^iii^ = 1.618^i^=1514.65.

We appear to have completed wave $i$ at 1364.40 and are now falling in wave $ii$. Our retracement levels for wave $ii$ are:

50% = 1336.70;

61.8% = 1330.20.

Upon completion of wave $ii$ we expect a  sharp rally in wave $iii$ that should break above resistance at the 1365.00/1377.00 level.

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops.

S&P500: 

Short Term Update:



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Stocks & Equities

Todd Market Forecast: A Big Change Afoot


Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Tuesday, 20 February 2018 18:29

An important letter written by Stephen Todd, who was Ranked #1 in 2017 by the venerable Timer's Digest with a 31.6% return for 2017. In this evenings letter, Stephen makes a case for a rally in stocks tomorrow. Perhaps more importantly, as of today Feb 20th Stephen changes to Bullish the US Dollar & Bearish Gold, Silver & the Euro - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

For Tuesday February 20, 2018

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 254 on 976 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 5 on 963 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

Editor's note.--- For those of you who missed the interview on Saturday with Michael Campbell, you can hear it by clicking on THIS LINK

STOCKS: A 10% drop for Walmart, its worst loss in 30 years, took 73 points off the Dow and caused selling in other retailers like Target. The struggle for online sales sent a shudder through the markets.

It is our belief that this was a pullback within an uptrend albeit a somewhat scary one. I liked the fact that the NASDAQ and high tech indices were not down nearly as much. Check out the chart.

GOLD: Gold was down a whopping $25. The Wall Street Journal blamed a rising dollar and rising interest rates. I'm not so sure, but I don't have an alternate theory. I'll keep checking.

CHART: The SOX or semiconductor index was up nicely on Tuesday in spite of the drop by the S&P 500 and Dow (right arrow). The SOX frequently leads the broader averages so a rebound tomorrow would not be a big surprise. The other arrows show previous occurrences.  

Screen Shot 2018-02-20 at 6.33.39 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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Mike's Content

In The Pipeline Wars There's Only One Clear Winner


Posted by Michael Campbell

on Tuesday, 20 February 2018 07:59

The score is $490 Million to Zero. That's how much money Canada transferred from governments & companies this week to the US because 2/3rds of our oil can't get world prices because it is forced to sell at a discount to a single customer, the US. 

Mike's Editorial begins at the 32 second mark above.    
 
fp0124 wcs vs wti

 



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Timing & trends

Jack Crooks: The Next Big 8 Year Bull Market


Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Tuesday, 20 February 2018 06:49

The 3 charts below tell the story: Jack Crooks makes a powerful argument that the US Dollar has entered into a long-term bear market cycle which will trigger a massive BIG move in sold out commodities for the next 8 years - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

Monday 19 February 2018

CURRENCY CURRENTS

Quotable

“There are as many styles of beauty as there are visions of happiness.”

                                                                                           --Stendhal (aka Marie-Henri Beyle)

Commentary & Analysis

Path of the dollar = Path of commodities? 

It’s not easy trying to forecast future prices from chart patterns; nor is it any easier to do so no matter how much fundamental information you possess, or believe you possess (see Frédéric Bastiat’s famous essay: “What is seen and what is not seen”). Said forecasting difficulties prove the axiom, so succinctly stated by the late great Mark Douglas: “Every moment in the market is unique.”

That being said, because decision-making and forecasting skills of the average human have not changed much since the beginning of time; i.e. we continue to see similar reactions across a fractal time frame which shows up as price patterns; albeit some differences which may be the result of high frequency trading a la algos. (As an aside, it seems despite individual’s attaining no better skill in forecasting, they have attained much higher confidence-levels. We can thank the dramatic increase in access to technology—producing vast amounts of data—for the spike in confidence levels. But, arguably, this fact has led to even less critical thought across the body of players who make up this thing called a market. And it may be a contributing factor for the next major market debacle.)

From that summary, I share one premise and two thoughts about market price action derived from chart patterns I watch day in and day out:

Given a certain level of mastery with chart patterns (defined by watching, thinking, and acting on price action over several years in real markets using real money), they do provide an edge which if applied judicially will increase the probability of success (albeit, the same argument may be applied to fundamental mastery). The degree to which chart patterns increase one’s probability will vary dramatically and can change dramatically as the market environment itself changes. So. I think it best to use the phrase: “Over time one can gain a slight edge using chart patterns as a forecasting tool.”

Keep in mind, it is that slight edge which builds and nourishes casino’s and race tracks.

The dollar path and the correlated commodities path.

1. I suspect the dollar has entered a long-term bear market cycle (first chart below). This decline will be measured in years (approximately seven to eight years) and should carry the dollar to fresh lows. But in the process of this long-term downtrend we will likely see a major multi- month rally in the dollar (second chart below) before we enter the big one; defined as the third wave down (past dollar cycles are usually not straight lines and consists of what is known as “tests” of the trend to wrong-foot market players.tself changes. So. I think it best to use the phrase: “Over time one can gain a slight edge using chart patterns as a forecasting tool.”
Keep in mind, it is that slight edge which builds and nourishes casino’s and race tracks.

Larger Chart 

jcdollar

Weekly Dollar Index: Cycles (global macro era’s defined)..the red arrows on the chart represent “tests” of the new trend. Note: We didn’t get a test during the “Punish Japan” era as defined (the Plaza Accord worked); and the last red arrow is a forecast. So far, no test since the fall in the US dollar began back in January 2017.

Larger Chart



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