Todd Market Forecast: Impressive Breadth & Hot Techs

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 12 April 2018 06:12

Fear of War, both Trade and Missiles drove all 3 Stock Indexes down yesterday. Despite the hammering, there were actually more NYSE issues up than down, an unusual event. Mr. Todd thinks something is going to happen missle wise, but doubts that "it will effect markets all that much" - R. Zurrer For Money Talks

Wednesday April 11, 2018. 3:00 Pacific

DOW - 219 on 4 net advances

NASDAQ COMP - 25 on 72 net declines



STOCKS: Today was all about the prospect of military conflict in the Middle East. Russia issued threats and President Trump issued counter threats. It does look something is about to happen, but I doubt that it will affect the markets all that much.

Today also looked like a bit of reaction and profit taking to yesterdays gonzo move.

We were impressed by breadth. It isn't often that we see a 200 point Dow drop with more advances than declines. 

GOLD: Gold gained $11. We still haven't closed above the late March peak which constitutes resistance.

CHART: The QQQ is the ETF for the NASDAQ 100 and it has a tendency to be market leader. I am impressed that after a March decline, it is now making a series of ascending highs and ascending lows. 



BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)


Our intermediate term system is back on a buy.

System 7 We're currently in cash. If the S&P 500 is positive on Thursday with 5 minutes to go in the session, buy the SSO at the close. 

System 9 Currently neutral 

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The CPI was down 0.1%, lower than the expected unchanged reading. Oil inventories rose 3.3 million barrels. Last week they declined 4.6 million. 

INTERESTING STUFF: Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide. -------Napoleon Bonaparte 

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was down 4. 

BONDS: Bonds were higher. 

THE REST: The dollar stopped going down. Crude oil was higher and moved above the resistance zone which was the previous peak in late March. 

Bonds --Bearish as of April 3.

U.S. dollar - Bearish as of April 9.

Euro --- Bullish as of April 9.

Gold ----Bearish as of March 27.

Silver---- Bearish as of March 27.

Crude oil ----Change to bullish as of April 11 .

Toronto Stock Exchange----Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.


Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 12.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish. 

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

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