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Timing & trends

Why the Cycle Is Turning Up for Emerging Markets

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Posted by Mike Burnick via Money and Markets

on Wednesday, 08 March 2017 06:51

With Larry Edelson’s passing last week, I lost both a friend and a mentor. I met Larry my very first day at Weiss back in 2002. He was already a larger-than-life personality, but always took time out to mentor us with his unique view of the markets.

Larry taught me a great deal about markets and investing over the next fifteen years; about taking the long view to identify the big, macro trends. An avid student of history and the cyclical nature of markets, he taught me the value of evaluating markets from a historical perspective.

There’s really nothing new in financial markets that hasn’t happened before. While history may not repeat exactly, it does rhyme.

In fact, the recurring, cyclical nature of financial markets is a perfect reflection of its participants; millions of individual investors collectively making value judgments every single day.

Markets are much more than numbers, Larry would say, markets are people… it’s all about people.

Indeed, successful investing is mostly about studying human behavior … hope and fear, greed and envy … the emotions that make up market sentiment.

Take commodities. There is no better example of the cyclical nature of markets.


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Timing & trends

Technically Speaking: Beware The Ides Of March

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Posted by Lance Roberts - The Real Investment Report

on Tuesday, 07 March 2017 08:00

The month of March typically marks the beginning of Spring. This weekend will also mark the loss of an hour of sleep as we set our clocks forward an hour in observance of daylight savings time.

As we will discuss momentarily, the month of March begins following an unseasonably warm winter period that allowed for manufacturing activity to occur during a period where inclement weather normally abounds. This is an interesting point because two years ago, the BEA adjusted the “seasonal adjustment”factors to compensate for the cold winter weather over the previous couple of years which had suppressed first quarter economic growth rates. (The irony here is that they adjusted adjustments for cold weather that generally occurs during winter.) However, the problem with “tinkering” with the numbers comes when you have an exceptionally warm winter. The new adjustment factors, which boosted Q1 economic growth during the last two years now creates a large over-estimation of activity during the first quarter of a year where winter weather is unseasonably warm.

This anomaly has boosted “bullish hope” as the fear of an economic slowdown has been postponed. At least temporarily until the over-estimations are revised away over the course of the coming months. Of course, with the spread between “hope” and “reality” currently at some of the highest levels ever, it is worth paying attention to what happens.

EOCI-Cycle-Anomaly-030617

.....read more HERE



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Timing & trends

The Second Dumbest Kind Of Money Is Pouring Into Stocks — “With A Vengeance”

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Monday, 06 March 2017 08:20

e02ada983955ea1679abc64c24615e2b880One of the traditional signs of market tops is individual investors finally succumbing to the lure of apparently easy money and pouring their savings into the stock market. In the past this dumb money flowed into equity mutual funds in general. But today it’s favoring exchange traded funds (ETFs) that, rather than trying to pick winners, simply offer exposure to sectors or broad market indexes. 

ETFs Race to Fastest Yearly Start Ever Based on Inflows

(Wall Street Journal) – Investors poured $62.9 billion into exchange-traded funds in February, pushing the year-to-date world-wide tally to $124 billion, the fastest start of any year in the history of the ETF industry, according to data from BlackRock Inc.

U.S. ETFs accounted for $44 billion of that, pushing assets in U.S. funds to almost $2.8 trillion.

Most of the money went to cheap, index-tracking ETFs, a sign that the price war in ETFs isn’t over yet. BlackRock’s iShares ETFs were the biggest winner, and its low-cost Core series garnered the bulk of the $38 billion global haul.
“All of the money is going into the cheapest and most boring ETFs. This is the retail investor getting back into the market with a vengeance,” said Dave Nadig, chief executive of ETF.com, an industry website owned by Bats Global Markets, newly a subsidiary of CBOE Holdings Inc.

The Rise of the ‘Do-Nothing’ Investor
Passive mutual funds are growing rapidly, pushing aside stock pickers and changing the investment world. Click here to read more about The Wall Street Journal series. 

The fastest-growing ETF so far this year is the iShares Core Emerging Markets ETF, which took in $4.2 billion in the first two months of the year, 18% of its assets, according to FactSet. Three other Core ETFs that invest in U.S. stocks were also among the top gainers last month.

Why is this a sign of a market top? Because small investors tend to trade on emotion rather than logic or expertise.



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Interesting Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 04 March 2017 08:42

1. Rate Hikes - Trump - Disappearing Pensions

    by Michael Campbell

Trump may not be liked by 1/2 the US but after his speech to Congress even the press gave him a credit. Rate hikes on the agenda and so are solutions to the iceberg of unfunded pensions.

...read more HERE

crassh2. It’s Crash Awareness Week

    by Bill Bonner

A Los Angeles spec house is on the market. It has seven bedrooms and 20,000 square feet of living space. It comes with a gold Lamborghini Aventador and a gold Rolls-Royce Dawn. You also get a wine cellar, a pool, and the usual claptrap amenities to which rich people are easy prey.

The price? A hundred million dollars.

....continue HERE

3. Gold Stocks’ Enormous Daily Slide

   by Przemyslaw Radomski

Feb 27th was just another period of back-and-forth movement for gold, silver, the USD Index and even the general stock market – but not for precious metals mining stocks. Gold stocks and silver stocks plunged very visibly - there are very important implications of this move and they are not bullish

....continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

Media Corruption

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Friday, 03 March 2017 08:34

Untitled-33-9Rather than immediately wonder how the main stream media became corrupted, it is appropriate to recall when only the tabloids were suspect.

Perhaps there was a time when any town that was big enough for two newspapers one would favor the Democrats and the other the Republicans. That would be by editorials going into an election. For most of the time, the goal was accurate reporting. That was back when most small towns were right out of a Norman Rockwell painting. On the outskirts of respectability were the tabloids with sensational headlines about UFOs everywhere and Area 51, specifically. A standing joke was what would happen if a real alien landed at the doors of the National Enquirer?

Much has changed since. In 2010, the "Enquirer" was considered as "legit" by the Pulitzer Prize Board and an almost monolithic Main Stream Media has deteriorated into the fantasy world of tabloids.

Sensationally scary headlines were once limited to tabloids. In the early 1970s, headlines about "global cooling" and "Nuclear Winters" began to be included in the main stream media. Over the past twenty years, today's form of yellow journalism has heralded the horrors of "global warming" and biblical rises in sea levels, not to overlook the violence of "climate change".

More hysteria than science, it sells newspapers and gets TV eyeballs, which is business. It also enabled a formidable expansion of state power and wealth, which is control.

How did it happen?



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