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Timing & trends

It’s Time To Get Serious

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Friday, 22 December 2017 07:38

The metals have been exhibiting as an actor in a soap opera would.  They have taken us to the edge of our emotions on each and every swing, as they take us to the edge of each of our support and resistance regions, and then turn.  But, I think many of you have lost the focus of the forest due to your concentration on the leaves.  So, this week, I am going to open with our discussion of the leaves, and then focus on the forest. It’s time to get serious about this complex. 

Ultimately, my point will be that anyone who is serious about this complex should look upon this market today as we did back towards the end of 2015, and look for buying opportunities, while keeping in mind the potential for that dreaded one more lower low.  And, sometimes, the market surprises us and does not provide us with the lower low, and simply takes off.  Either way, it’s time to prepare.



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Timing & trends

Bob Hoye Dec 20th/2017 - "Making Memories Every Day"

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Posted by Bob Hoye via Chris Chris Waltzek Ph.D.

on Thursday, 21 December 2017 05:50

  Listen - HERE Mp3 download

Highlights

  • Brimming with holiday cheer, Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with comments on the global financial bubble. 
  • The Dow could be approaching an ultimate peak - current valuations are stretched beyond those of the last equities market top of 2000. 
  • Bitcoin recently eclipsed the total value of Wal-mart, which should make for enlightening discussion around the holiday dinner table.
  • As relatives learn that their disenfranchised Junior, Grandma Kettle and Uncle Fester, who have long shared the privilege of residing in the palatial household basement, suddenly hold enough BTC to pay off the mortgages of the entire neighborhood, a big spike in popularity is anticipated.
  • One compelling BTC price estimate is $180,000. 
  • Gold hedge funds are turning away from PMs to Bitcoin to boost profits. Since the institutional money is finally pouring into the BTC realm.
  • Bitcoin / altcoin miners are literally printing money, with the expressed blessings of the Fed / Treasury, as hubris filled authorities consider cryptos merely a commodity.
  • Both the guest / host concur that the PMs offer solid relative values, with silver the more enticing of the two.
  • The TEZOS ICO** with a minimum investment of $250 recently launched in pre-ICO skyrocketed to $12 (Figure 1.1.). 
  • Investors could reap a 20 fold increase in the $250 investment. 
  • Futures are trading on BitMEX for pennies using 100x's leverage or no leverage at all, plus BitHTC.
  • Berkshire Hathaway Shares trade for $300,000 - where is the Bitcoin Bubble when Bitcoin is 20 times cheaper?
  • The much anticipated B2X fork will take place around December 28th!
One compelling BTC price estimate involves the cost to mine a coin, $4,000 times the number of interested investors worldwide, 450 million (150 million investors each, in Europe, Asia and the US) divided by the number of available coins, a 10 million float, given that 7 million BTC are currently held in stagnant wallets:

$4,000 * 450M / 10M = $180,000

Now that gold hedge funds are turning to Bitcoin to boost profits, will the new institutional interest transfer to the herd as usual, resulting in a feeding frenzy, catapulting price into the vicinity of $100k? Berkshire Hathaway Shares trade for $300,000 - where is the Bitcoin Bubble when Bitcoin is 20 times cheaper? Bitcoin / altcoin miners are literally printing money with the expressed blessing of the Fed / Treasury, as authorities in their hubris consider cryptos only a commodity, not real money. Both the guest / host concur that the PMs offer solid relative values, with silver the more enticing of the two - both anticipate a new bull market rally in the sector. 

Byteball (GBYTE) offers $800 in tokens just for linking your BTC wallet to the free upcoming ICO. 
Once your Bitcoin (BTC) address is linked to your Byteball(GBYTE) address, you will receive 62.5MB and 131,943,750 blackbytes for each 1BTC of the total balance of this Bitcoin(BTC) address on June 09. There is no minimum requirement as to how much Bitcoin you need to hold as you get fractions of Byteball (GBYTE) accordingly. There is a very small total supply of 1,000,000 GBYTE and there is only around 19% (189,284 GBYTE) left in circulation. It also allows P2P payments over chat, predictions markets, P2P betting, etc. //steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@cryptomania13/get-free-dollars-worth-of-byteball-usd759-on-june-9-by-simply-having-bitcoin">You can find out more by visiting their website.

Figure 1.1. TEZOS pre-ICO futures on HitBTC

7ir6b8rb7frb7ifg7if6gugytfr18-12-2017 12.53.13

Note: Graph prepared by Chris G. Waltzek - courtesy of HitBTC.

 



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Timing & trends

US dollar Bear? - Chart of the Day - Euro Bull Market Confirmation

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Posted by Gary Savage - Smartmoneytracker.comary Savage - Smartmoneytracker.com

on Wednesday, 20 December 2017 07:11

A break of this trend line will confirm that the Euro has entered a bull market and the dollar has entered a bear market. Gold is expected to finally be released from its year-long basing pattern.

cotd-209-1024x606

 

Larger Chart

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/



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Timing & trends

The 10 "Grey Swans" Events For 2018

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Tuesday, 19 December 2017 06:07

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict "black swan" events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura's Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan

As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be able to predict black swans, by definition that is impossible. "However, its close cousin the grey swan can be foreseen. These are the unlikely but impactful events that, in our opinion, lie outside the usual base case and risk scenarios of the analyst community. So as we did last year we have put on our creative hats and have come up with 10 potential grey swan events for 2018."

For the purpose of this exercise, Nomura avoided the more widely discussed - and more probable scenarios such as the Italian elections, US Impeachment risk, North Korea conflict, which it covered in its event risk radar series, and has instead selected topics that have not been as widely discussed. 

"Needless to say, none of them are our base case, but we think it is better to be prepared than not."

So without further adoNomura's potential grey swan events for 2018 include:

....continue reading HERE

 

...also from Zerohedge:

"They Are Sleepwalking Into A Major Correction": One Trader Expects A Violent Move In Bunds

 



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Timing & trends

Strap Yourself In - We Are About To See Some Big Moves In Metals

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Monday, 18 December 2017 06:48

The last week has seen the metals and miners drop down into support regions. As I write this, we are sitting just over major support for most of the charts I follow.

Whereas the GDX likely provides the cleanest picture of the market potential right now, I will be providing you guidance about the GDX in my analysis below. And, while I maintain a strong bullish bias for 2018, the action we see in the coming weeks will tell us when we can begin to take a more immediate bullish perspective.

Anecdotal and other sentiment indications

The whipsaw continues. Most in the complex don’t know whether they are coming or going right now. One day we go up, another day we go down. And, many have become quite bearish again, with many even calling for lows below those seen in 2015.

My last article on metals, which was about whether the metals market is truly manipulated, certainly generated some heated debate. And, anyone who has an opinion about the issue usually has a very emotional perspective on the issue, which is often on display in the comment section.

But, the ones who seem to have the most vociferous reactions are the true gold bugs. In their world perspective, gold should never be down. Rather, gold should only be rising, so any drop in the gold price can only be due to manipulation. And, no matter how much evidence you present to them that they are being manipulated to maintain their beliefs more than the market is actually manipulated, they don their blinders and continue in their manipulation mantra.

The truth is that most market participants really do not understand the metals market. Many believe it is hedge against inflation. Many believe it is a hedge against market volatility. In fact, I even read an article a few weeks ago that claimed that weather will impact the price of gold. So, many seem to believe in fallacies about gold, and I have written extensively about this in the past.

But, there are few markets that are more clearly driven by market sentiment, and it is only clear to those who maintain an open mind about the metals. And, as I write this, we are at an inflection point in sentiment.

Price pattern sentiment indications and upcoming expectations

While I would absolutely love to know what the future holds with certainty, unfortunately, certainty does not exist. Well, then again, as a retired tax attorney and accountant, there is an old joke I used to really appreciate:

There are three things in life which are certain: Death, taxes, and tax reform.

But, I digress.

While many expect analysts to be clairvoyant, it is simply not the case. If an analyst is good at what they do, the greatest value they can bring to those who follow their work is to be able to identify turning points in the market. And, for those that have followed us for years, you know we have done quite well in furtherance of this goal.

So, this brings me to my point: we are now at a point where the metals CAN see a significant turn.

Rather than going into all the detail of what I am seeing across the complex, I am going to distill my perspective down to one chart – the GDX.

Article written December 14th

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