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Timing & trends

Jack Crooks: The Next Big 8 Year Bull Market

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Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Tuesday, 20 February 2018 06:49

The 3 charts below tell the story: Jack Crooks makes a powerful argument that the US Dollar has entered into a long-term bear market cycle which will trigger a massive BIG move in sold out commodities for the next 8 years - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

Monday 19 February 2018

CURRENCY CURRENTS

Quotable

“There are as many styles of beauty as there are visions of happiness.”

                                                                                           --Stendhal (aka Marie-Henri Beyle)

Commentary & Analysis

Path of the dollar = Path of commodities? 

It’s not easy trying to forecast future prices from chart patterns; nor is it any easier to do so no matter how much fundamental information you possess, or believe you possess (see Frédéric Bastiat’s famous essay: “What is seen and what is not seen”). Said forecasting difficulties prove the axiom, so succinctly stated by the late great Mark Douglas: “Every moment in the market is unique.”

That being said, because decision-making and forecasting skills of the average human have not changed much since the beginning of time; i.e. we continue to see similar reactions across a fractal time frame which shows up as price patterns; albeit some differences which may be the result of high frequency trading a la algos. (As an aside, it seems despite individual’s attaining no better skill in forecasting, they have attained much higher confidence-levels. We can thank the dramatic increase in access to technology—producing vast amounts of data—for the spike in confidence levels. But, arguably, this fact has led to even less critical thought across the body of players who make up this thing called a market. And it may be a contributing factor for the next major market debacle.)

From that summary, I share one premise and two thoughts about market price action derived from chart patterns I watch day in and day out:

Given a certain level of mastery with chart patterns (defined by watching, thinking, and acting on price action over several years in real markets using real money), they do provide an edge which if applied judicially will increase the probability of success (albeit, the same argument may be applied to fundamental mastery). The degree to which chart patterns increase one’s probability will vary dramatically and can change dramatically as the market environment itself changes. So. I think it best to use the phrase: “Over time one can gain a slight edge using chart patterns as a forecasting tool.”

Keep in mind, it is that slight edge which builds and nourishes casino’s and race tracks.

The dollar path and the correlated commodities path.

1. I suspect the dollar has entered a long-term bear market cycle (first chart below). This decline will be measured in years (approximately seven to eight years) and should carry the dollar to fresh lows. But in the process of this long-term downtrend we will likely see a major multi- month rally in the dollar (second chart below) before we enter the big one; defined as the third wave down (past dollar cycles are usually not straight lines and consists of what is known as “tests” of the trend to wrong-foot market players.tself changes. So. I think it best to use the phrase: “Over time one can gain a slight edge using chart patterns as a forecasting tool.”
Keep in mind, it is that slight edge which builds and nourishes casino’s and race tracks.

Larger Chart 

jcdollar

Weekly Dollar Index: Cycles (global macro era’s defined)..the red arrows on the chart represent “tests” of the new trend. Note: We didn’t get a test during the “Punish Japan” era as defined (the Plaza Accord worked); and the last red arrow is a forecast. So far, no test since the fall in the US dollar began back in January 2017.

Larger Chart



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Timing & trends

Victor Adair: The Market is Walking on Eggshells

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Posted by Victor Adair with Michael Campbell

on Monday, 19 February 2018 07:02

Victor went into the crash short, covered and watched the market rally for a week. In this Live From the Trading Desk Victor has a strong opinion on what's happening now in the Stock Market, Gold & the US Dollar - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

....also Michael interviews Timer's Digest #1 in 2017 Stephen Todd Feb 17th

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Timing & trends

The Top 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 17 February 2018 08:19

game-has-changed1. Peril Danger Warning! Greg Weldon on Feb 10th 2018

   by Michael Campbell

A word to the wise - big name analyst, Greg Weldon issues a major warning for investors. Hint: the game's changed. 

....continue HERE

2. Peter Grandich: Blip or Warning Shot

Must read: A report from someone who shorted this market and covered it right on the bottom February 9th. That is one hell of a trade.

....read it all HERE

3. Key Change That Nobody Talks About

Last week, everyone focused on the stock market sell-off. Reasonably enough, given the pace of the declines. But the analysts failed to pay enough attention to the very important shift. That change may be more important than Trump’s victory in the presidential election.

...read more HERE



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Timing & trends

The 1% Notion is Absurd

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Posted by Craig Burrows

on Friday, 16 February 2018 16:44

craig burrows oct 2016I am a proud Canadian. I love this country but I’m quite concerned about government tax policies that promote the idea that 1% should be able to subsidize the remaining 99%. I’m all for paying my fair share of taxes but when governments can literally seize more than 50% of your earnings, that is not fair. The problem with democracy is the notion “Our solution becomes your problem” is real if enough people support a particular platform.

The 1% notion is absurd. According to StatsCan, there are approximately 270,000 Canadians that would qualify for that category. Imagine the city of Saskatoon (250,000) subsidizing the rest of the country? The math and the premise simply don’t add up. I met with Finance Minister Bill Morneau at a business meeting in Toronto before Christmas and I asked how he can compare Canadians that are high income (professionals / small business owners) to the people like himself who have millions in net assets in and out of the country? His response is the average Canadian earns $50,000 per year so if you make over $200,000 per year, you’re rich. He believes a billionaire or someone who inherited their wealth are the same as your small business owner who have little assets but make a good income.

You may think someone that owns their own business that earns more than $200,000 is rich but consider they don’t qualify for EI, have no gold-plated pensions and they work a lifetime to hopefully sell their business to use as their pension when they retire. If the government takes $100,000 for income tax, the $100,000 left over isn’t much to live on and create a nest egg to retire based on the risk. The biggest difference between a small business owner and an employee is when an employee fails, they lose their job; when a small business owner fails, they lose their house.

As I said before, people have to pay their fair share of tax. That being said, we also believe that every Canadian should take advantage of any tax credit or deduction the government will provide you. We see three strategies:
1. Maximize your registered funds
2. Invest in opportunities that provide capital gains to reduce tax paid. This is one reason the public markets have had a run but it comes with volatility
3. Invest in little known provincial and federal tax credits that provide a way to invest in your local community by investing in innovative new economies

We have three strategies that use these little-known provincial and federal tax incentives / deductions but we will share one of those ideas with you. Alberta and BC have done one thing right; they have created tax incentive plans to help create diversified economies by allowing residents to invest in their own economy.

Please take a look at the 2-minute video on our website, as it will explain how you can receive up to 80% ROI (based on 50% tax bracket) in Year 1 of your investment thanks to this two part tax strategy. If you live in Alberta or BC, if you want to invest in innovative local businesses, visit us at triviewcapital.com to see if you qualify.

Sincerely,

Craig Burrows President, CEO

Triview Capital



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Timing & trends

Peter Grandich: Blip or Warning Shot

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Posted by Peter Grandich & Company

on Thursday, 15 February 2018 06:54

best-stocks-to-buy-now-1-300x214Must read: A report from someone who shorted this market and covered it right on the bottom February 9th. That is one hell of a trade.

Not only that but Peter Grandich has been correct being short the bonds and recently stated that he is as bullish as he has been in 34 years on Gold - Robert Zurrer

A Brief Look At The Markets by Peter Grandich

 Stock Market – I had noted in my February 10th observation, that I had covered my short position on the morning of the 9th. I stated,  “A significant reason for taking profits in my short positions was the personal technical work that I do, suggested the short-term selling was exhausted. Sure enough, the DJIA rallied 700 points from when I covered. I believe we can see the market rally back hard next week, as the first sell-offs in Parabolic Arc formations are almost always assumed to be buying opportunities.”
As I make this blog post, morning stock index futures indicate another 300 point rise to the already-huge rally since covering my shorts. I believe this qualifies as “rallying back hard”. The question is, was the previous sell-off just a blip or a true warning shot? If a picture is worth a thousand words, this photo should explain my answer:
IMGP8278-jrnl-1-300x199

  •  Bonds – While the stock market thinks it was just a momentary blip, the bond market has clearly viewed a major sea change and is acting accordingly. The POTUS has “joined the swamp” in insanely out-of-control spending and debt crisis, that just may make the can unable to be kicked down the road anymore. The warning shot will become this, if the 10-year T-Bond gets above (and stays) 3%


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