Timing & trends

Bob Hoye: Checklist for a Top

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Monday, 19 June 2017 06:43

The following is part of Pivotal Events that was published for our subscribers June 8, 2017.

Screen Shot 2017-06-19 at 7.09.33 AM



Timing & trends

Trading Desk Notes - June 17

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Victor Adair & Drew Zimmermanew Zimmerman

on Saturday, 17 June 2017 10:33

Our thoughts on select markets as we wrap up the trading week.

Key events this week:

1) Bank of Canada signaled a change in interest rate policy

2) Federal Reserve was more “hawkish” than expected

3) WTI was hit with more bearish news

4) the CRB commodity index dropped to a 14 month low, down 9% from 2017 highs even as the USD fell 7%

Canadian Dollar: hit a 14 month low May 5 at 72.50 and then rallied in step with crude oil. But when crude oil “topped out” on the May 25th OPEC meeting and turned lower CAD drifted sideways for the next two weeks, taking its que from the weaker USD. On Monday and again on Tuesday this week top Bank of Canada officials indicated that the 2 “emergency” quarter point interest rates cuts made in 2016 had “done their job” and market expectations shifted dramatically to expecting interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada sooner rather than later.

CAD had its best 4 day rally in over a year rising from 74 to 76 cents Friday through Wednesday...a 3 ½ month high. The trading volume of Canadian dollar futures hit an All Time High on Wednesday June 14 (Fed day.)

We went back to being short CAD at the end of this week because: 1) it had rallied 2 cents in 4 days 2) crude oil had taken another leg down 3) the Fed was a little more hawkish than expected 4) the Canadian stock market dropped to 7 month lows (down 5% from the February All Time Highs) while the major American stock indices were at All Time Highs. We remain short CAD.


The US Dollar Index: dropped to a new 7 month low early Wednesday morning on weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports and then rebounded sharply later that day and again Thursday on Yellen’s more hawkish than expected press conference remarks. We had been long the USD Index from the previous week and were stopped out on the early morning fall to new lows, but we “stepped up” and bought our positions back as the USD rallied on Yellen’s comments. (This was a “hard” trade to do, but as so many veteran traders will tell you, the “hard” trades often turn out to be your best trades!) We remain long USDX thinking that it may be turning higher after months of bearish pressure.


Timing & trends

The Top 3 Articles of the Week

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 17 June 2017 08:09


1. JIM ROGERS: The worst crash in our lifetime is coming

Rogers: I learned very early in my investing careers: I better not invest in what I want. I better invest in what’s happening in the world. Otherwise, I’ll be broke. Dead broke.  Well, what’s going to happen is it’s going to continue. Some stocks in America are turning into a bubble. The bubble’s gonna come. Then it’s gonna collapse and you should be very worried. 

....read it all HERE

2. Changes Coming Along With Higher Canadian Interest Rates

     by Michael Campbell

The Fed moved interest rates higher thursday putting pressure on Canada to raise rates. With BOC Stephen Poloz saying low rates "have done their job", and with Canadian growth outperforming the US recently it looks like higher rates are coming to Canada too. Will it be 1/4 of a percent, 1/2%....?..

....read it all HERE

3. Pop Goes The Housing Boom... In Canada

We're headed for another housing bust. This time in Canada. And the key is China.

It's no secret that Chinese investors, seeking asylum from the slow-motion credit bust underway there, have been dumping tons of cash into Canadian real estate.

But it looks like a number of events are coming together at the same time to blow up that market before the end of 2017.

....read it all HERE

Timing & trends

Random Thoughts on this Crazy Charging Stock Market Bull

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Friday, 16 June 2017 09:41

In the sphere of thought, absurdity and perversity remain the masters of the world, and their dominion is suspended only for brief periods. Arthur Schopenhauer

The proverbial question for many years has always been; when will this stock market bull end? By every measure of logic and or common sense, this bull market should have crashed years ago. However, it hasn't, and much to the angst of many professionals continued its march upwards against all the odds. We would like to stop here and state that this market is now very close to trading in the extremely overbought ranges. A market can trade in the overbought ranges for an extended period. In this instance, we analysed monthly charts, where each bar represents a month’s worth of data. Historically, a market has experienced a correction within 5-10 months from the occurrence of this event. As of yet, the markets are not trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the monthly charts, but they are very close to moving into this zone.

Why has this market defied the expectations of all the professionals?

One of the culprits could be the emotional state of the masses. There is something almost insane taking place in this bull market; the higher it trends, the more anxious individuals come. It almost does not make sense as the opposite of this is what normally takes place. Were we not experiencing this first hand, we would find it almost impossible to believe such an event could occur.

Anxiety June  2017 - Copy

We update this gauge every two weeks, and the last reading shows that the masses are still firmly entrenched in the anxiety zone. Sadly history also indicates that bull markets never end on a note of fear or angst but on a note of extreme joy/euphoric. We don’t want anyone to lose that is not our desire; all we are doing is simply examining historical trends both from a price perspective and a mass psychology perspective. Thus it appears that this market will only crash when the majority finally decide to embrace this incredibly resilient bull market.


Timing & trends

Hope for the Best but Prepare for the Worst (with Gold and Munis)

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 15 June 2017 07:43


Last week investors shrugged off even more drama coming out of Washington. Stocks continued to rally and hit record highs, even as former FBI director James Comey testified that, in his opinion, President Donald Trump fired him in an attempt to lift the “cloud” of the Russia investigation. 

If true, this suggests obstruction of justice, an impeachable offense. And if impeached, or in the event of a resignation, Trump’s political agenda would likely be derailed. The last (and only) time a U.S. president resigned, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost up to 40 percent,as a recent article in TheStreet reminds us.

But markets paid no mind to Comey’s insinuations, underscoring investors’ confidence that tax reform and deregulation will proceed as planned. And sure enough, just hours after Comey testified, the House of Representatives voted to repeal key parts of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which has contributed to an alarming number of small bank closures since its passage in 2010.

So once again, the wisdom of crowds prevails. If you remember, markets were forecasting as far back ago as last summer that Trump would win the November election.

This doesn’t mean, however, that Trump’s problems are behind him.

Last week I was speaking with Mike Ward, a top publisher with Agora Financial, who compared Presidents Trump and Ronald Reagan. It was suggested that, despite Trump’s apparent affection for the 40th president, he has so far failed to live up to the Great Communicator’s memory of optimism and deep respect for the office.

Whereas Reagan wanted to “tear down this wall,” Trump wants to “put up that wall.” Whereas Reagan insisted it was “morning in America,” Trump insists it’s “American carnage.” Reagan succeeded in building coalitions and unifying our allies against the Soviet Union. Trump has already managed to destabilize many of those alliances.

During the 1988 vice-presidential debate, Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen famously ribbed then-Senator of Indiana Dan Quale for comparing himself favorably to John F. Kennedy. “I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy,” Bentsen said. “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.”

Similarly, many observers are of the opinion that Trump is no Reagan.

Don’t get me wrong. I remain hopeful. President Trump wants to make America great again, and it’s still well within his power to do so—if he can practice some self-restraint and not get caught up in petty feuds. Voters support his vision. They gave him not only the Executive Branch but also Congress and most states’ governorships and legislatures. 

You could say I’m hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. I advise investors to do the same. No one can say what the future holds, and it’s prudent to have a portion of your portfolio in gold, gold stocks and short-term, tax-free municipal bonds, all of which have a history of performing well in volatile times.

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >> Page 10 of 418

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...

Our Premium Service:
The Inside Edge on Making Money

Latest Update

Take Partial Profits

The nervousness surounding the current bull market remains significant. While there are a number of unsettling indicators suggesting a serious...

- posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Josef Ozzie Jurock Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine