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Timing & trends

Market Melt-up Brings Volatility to Metals

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen & John Winston: TheMarketTrendForecast.com

on Tuesday, 31 January 2017 06:43

Our recent analysis bases on a previous report of the potential for a further run in the US markets based on a number of technical and fundamental factors leads to the question of "what could happen with Gold and Silver". A broad US market rally may put some pressure on the metals markets initially, but, in our opinion, the increase in volatility and uncertainty will likely prompt more potential for upward price action in precious metals.

As with most things in the midst of uncertainty and transition, the US Presidential election has caused many traders to rethink positions and potential. As foreign elections continue to play out, wild currency moves are starting to become more of a standard for volatility. Combine this with a new US President and a repositioning of US global and local objectives and we believe we are setting up for one of the most expansive moves in recent years for the US general markets and the metals markets. This week, alone, we have seen a flurry of action in DC and the US markets broke upward on news of the Dakota Pipeline and other Executive actions.

As we wrote week or so ago, we believe the US markets will push higher in 2017 a business investment, US strategy and foreign capital runs back into the US equity market chasing opportunity and gains. Additionally, we believe the strength of the US market, paired with continued strength of the US Dollar, will drive a further increase in global volatility and wild swings in foreign markets. This volatility, uncertainty and equity repositioning will likely drive Gold and Silver to continued highs throughout 2017 - possibly much longer if the new trend generates renewed follow-through.

Our belief that the US markets will continue to melt-up while certain foreign markets deteriorate relates to our belief that currency variances will become more volatile and excessive over the next few months. This, in combination with a renewed interest in developing US economic solutions, will likely drive the US markets higher while the metals markets will continue to become a safe-haven for US and foreign investors to protect against deflation and foreign market corrections.

S&P Futures are setting up a clear bullish pennant/flag formation that will likely prompt an explosive price move within 2~3 weeks. This bullish flag formation is likely to drive the ES price higher by roughly 100+ pts.  Currently, strong resistance is just above 2275, so we'll have to wait for this level to be breached before we see any potential for a bigger price move.

SP500 Weekly Chart

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SP500 Daily Chart



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Timing & trends

Greyerz – We Now Have The Perfect Recipe For A Global Disaster

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Posted by Egon Greyerz via King World News

on Monday, 30 January 2017 06:53

King-World-News-Greyerz-We-Now-Have-The-Perfect-Recipe-For-A-Global-Disaster-864x400 c1.  All major economies, USA, China, Japan, Europe and Emerging markets have debt which have grown exponentially and will never be repaid. 

2.  The financial system has a gross exposure of over $2 quadrillion. This will all collapse when counterparty fails. 

3.  With the Trump administration leading, the world will soon enter the final spending spree which will accelerate the velocity of money and lead to hyperinflation. This will in turn finish off the value of most major currencies until they reach zero. 

4.  1-3 above will result in a deflationary implosion of the financial system. This will get rid of all debt and reduce the value of most assets by at least 90%.

5.  This total debt destruction is the only way to put a world on a sound footing for future growth and prosperity.

....read more including the antidote HERE

also:

All star Analyst, Jack Crooks on Trump, Bonds and the US$



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Timing & trends

Gold Market Correction: Key Tactics

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 27 January 2017 13:57

January 27, 2017

Today's videos and charts (double-click to enlarge):

Gold, Silver, & T-Bonds Key Charts Video Analysis

hubbartt012717-1



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Timing & trends

Two Gold Ratios You Should Watch

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Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Thursday, 26 January 2017 03:13

As Gold and gold mining stocks approach strong resistance, we wonder if the outcome will be a sharp selloff or a period of bullish consolidation. While there are a handful of things we can examine (sentiment, momentum, relative strength, etc), today we will focus on Gold and its relative strength against two key markets. How Gold fares against Bonds and foreign currencies in the weeks ahead could be a hint of its trend heading into spring. 

Below we plot Gold against Bonds and Gold against Foreign Currencies (FC). Gold against the 30-year bond is shown with the 200 and 400-day moving averages while Gold against FC and the 400-day moving average is plotted at the bottom.

As we can see, the Gold/Bonds ratio is attempting to breakout from two-year resistance. The ratio has consolidated for the past nine months and now the moving averages are aligned in bullish fashion. Meanwhile, Gold/FC is trading above support but like Gold itself faces resistance from early autumn.

Jan252016GoldvsFCBonds

Gold vs. Bonds, Gold vs. Foreign Currencies



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Timing & trends

Be Aware Of These Crowded Trades: WTI Crude, Natural Gas, And The U.S. Dollar

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Posted by Free CoT Data

on Wednesday, 25 January 2017 08:13

Summary

- Commodities: Money managers are extremely long copper and WTI crude futures. Commodity producers are actively hedging future cotton and natural gas production at current prices.

- Currencies: Everybody's long the U.S. Dollar relative to other foreign currencies.

- Stocks: Surprisingly, hedge funds have shorted a ton of S&P futures over the past two weeks. Net positioning levels are still quite optimistic though.

This is the 43rd weekly update that outlines how traders are positioned and how that positioning has recently changed. I break down the updates by asset class, so let's get started.

Commodities

Money managers are extremely bullish on copper (NYSEARCA:JJC).

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.....to view all assett classes & larger charts go HERE

...also:

Crude Oil - Maxed Out & On The Brink of a Significant Move



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