Timing & trends

The 3 Most Fascinating Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 24 June 2017 08:07

Anxiety June  2017 - Copy1. Random Thoughts on this Crazy Charging Stock Market Bull

 By every measure of logic and or common sense, this bull market should have crashed years ago. However, it hasn't, and much to the angst of many professionals continued its march upwards against all the odds.

....read it all HERE

2. The Middle East Is Blowing Up

Every day brings another scary headline from the Middle East — which makes it easy to treat them as background noise rather than a clear and present danger. But the latest batch is reminiscent of the Balkans circa 1914, which means it may be time to tune back in.

....read it all HERE

3. Bob Hoye: Checklist for a Top

Understandably, we don't publish a "Checklist for a Top" all that often. But when we do, it is daunting. Not everyone is a researcher or trader. There are real lives and portfolios out there that are vulnerable.

....read it all HERE

Timing & trends

A Rigged Game

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Posted by Theodore Butler - Butler Research

on Friday, 23 June 2017 07:11

76 years ago, “Joltin’ Joe” DiMaggio was in the middle of the hitting streak of streaks that would come to 56 consecutive games and which has remained a major league baseball record to this day. That season (1941), the Yankee Clipper would bat .408 during the epic streak or more than 4 hits for every 10 at bats. Ted Williams, of the Boston Red Sox, had the highest batting average in 1941, hitting .406 for the entire season. 

What would you say if I told you that a batter had hit 1.000 for an entire season? Or that a pitcher threw no-hitters every time he played a game? I’m pretty sure you would say that’s impossible or that something was definitely wrong.  And, of course, you would be correct – somethings are too impossible or outlandish to be true. Not just in baseball, but there are limits in almost every endeavor. 

Therefore, I wouldn’t blame you if you questioned what I claim is the winning streak of all winning streaks in trading COMEX silver futures. Data published by the CFTC, the federal commodities regulator, indicate that JPMorgan and two or three other large financial institutions, have never taken a loss, only profits on every single silver trading position they have established over the past nine years and, in fact, for a lot longer than that. You can question what I claim all you want, but do yourself a favor and make sure you question me deeply enough – please don’t let me off the hook easily.  

silver-bullionLet me first define what I mean by establishing a COMEX silver position and never taking a loss. I’m not talking about high-speed computer day trading (HFT) which makes up the lion’s share of trading volume in silver and just about everything else. I’m talking about positions taken and held for weeks and months before they are closed out. Since JPMorgan and the two or three institutions which together hold the impossibly-perfect trading record in silver have never been net long COMEX silver futures, the trading positions established and closed out without loss, only profits, have all been short positions. If you are always net short on the COMEX, which JPMorgan and the other big perfect traders have always been, you can’t take long positions – only close out or add new shorts.

Therefore, JPMorgan and the two or three other large “never wrong, always right” COMEX traders only trade from the short side; always adding new short contracts first at higher prices than where those contracts are later bought back and closed out at. From studying silver intensely for more than 30 years, I don’t think I would be able to sleep peacefully for a minute if I ever found myself actually short the metal. I think I’d rather go skydiving without a parachute. Given silver’s long history of sudden price spikes, including the spike to nearly $50 six years ago, one would think a silver short position taken by JPM and the others, would end in a loss, at least once in a while. One would be wrong to think that.


Timing & trends

Could Recent FANG Weakness Be Signaling the End of the Bull Run?

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Posted by Financial Sense

on Thursday, 22 June 2017 07:19

As we survey the financial markets and global economic backdrop, it appears that a change in the wind could be slowly taking place. Across the tides of global capital markets, a chillier wind may be starting to blow, ushering in what could soon be some sweeping changes in the major trends for primary capital markets. In China, the air of debt deleveraging seems to be taking root, with tightness in the money markets, bond market collapses, bond market closures, and inverted yield curves. In addition, there are also widespread rumors surrounding the viability of an assortment of wealth management products that have embedded duration mismatch problems baked into the cake.

Here at home in the USA, boom times remain in full swing with stock market averages busting out to new highs seemingly day-after-day. Yet, behind the bullish headlines, there seems to be developing a clear pattern of parabolic (terminal) excess within the technology space, a pattern familiar to those market watchers who recall 1999 and 2008.


Above: A basket of Large Cap Technology Stocks with Intermediate ARMS (inverted) is also extremely overbought. These types of readings tend to highlight medium term extremes so even if prices recover, there is a larger overtone to this type of bearish reading.

....continue reading HERE

...also from Financial Sense:

Central Banks Are Driving Many to Cryptocurrencies

Timing & trends

Global Blast-Off Trade Setup

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen for OilPrice.com

on Wednesday, 21 June 2017 06:45

Asia Custom Monthly F-290x130Our analysis of the global markets and metals markets are prompting us to issue a warning that may not shock a number of our followers – but may surprise others.  We use a number of custom indicators, custom indexes and other specialized features to try to keep our valued members aware of moves before they happen at ActiveTradingPartners.com.  You may recall our recent article warning of a VIX spike between June 9th and June 13th in correlation with a US market correction (NASDAQ).  We nailed this and predicted another VIX spike on June 29th, 2017.

Are you ready for what might become the most opportunistic setup we’ve seen in over a decade?  Well, before we get to the guts of our incredible setup, let’s go over some other data to support our predictions – the global markets.

On May 3rd, 2017, we authored an article regarding Global Economic Shifts that were taking place as a result of Capital Migration and renewed risk factors throughout the global markets.  Our hypothesis was that capital will always attempt to locate and migrate to financial environments where risk is mitigated and returns are sufficient.  We consider this an active and intrinsic role of global capital – the hunt for the ability to thrive and develop success/profits.

Since this research was completed, a number of new and interesting facets have evolved.  Two of the most interesting are the shifts within the Arabic nations with regards to Qatar and the almost total isolation recently enacted on this wealthy nation and the news from Europe that a number of smaller, regional banks are collapsing with broader, tangible relations to the EU banking system.  This type of disruption within a financial environment (think globally) causes capital to migrate rather quickly to more stable locations for self-preservation.

China/Asian markets appear to be developing a level of “moderately healthy financial environment” in terms of global market capital migration.  In the past, I would have warned that Asia/China could become a temporary safe-harbor for capital as it migrates out of riskier environments and I would still support that claim simple because China/Asia are less of a mature market compared to other.  Thus, the likelihood that China/Asia could see dramatic asset revaluation or some type of unexpected market function issues is still near the top of my list.  Yet, we can’t accurately predict when this will happen and until extended signs of weakness cause us to adopt a more concerned stance, we have to understand that capital will move to environments that seem suitable for success.  At this time, we believe China/Asia are viewed as just that – moderately suitable for capital deployment and investment (till things change).

Asia Chart


Timing & trends

The Middle East Is Blowing Up

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Tuesday, 20 June 2017 07:42


Every day brings another scary headline from the Middle East — which makes it easy to treat them as background noise rather than a clear and present danger. But the latest batch is reminiscent of the Balkans circa 1914, which means it may be time to tune back in. Some examples: 

A US Navy jet shot down a Syrian warplane. Syria is a Russian client state, so this puts the US and Russia on opposite sides in a shooting war. 

Russia warned the US that it takes the destruction of its client’s military assets seriously.It suspended the hot line Washington and Moscow have used to avoid collisions in Syrian airspace and threatened to target US aircraft.

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