Timing & trends

"Dash-For-Trash" At Its Most Extreme Since DotCom Peak...

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Friday, 16 December 2016 14:32

The Trump rally's animal spirits might be jumping the shark. The massive outperformance of the 'riskiest' high-volatility stocks over 'stodgy' low-volatility in the last few weeks...

20161216 beta1 0

....continue reading HERE

...related by Lance Roberts:

Technically Speaking: Bullish Or Bearish? What The Charts Say


Timing & trends

Take Advantage of the Different Seasonal Trends of Precious Metals!

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Posted by Dimitri Speck

on Thursday, 15 December 2016 07:15

Prices in financial and commodity markets are exhibiting seasonal trends. This applies to the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium as well.

The chart below depicts the seasonal trends of the gold price over a time period of 45 years.

Gold price in USD, seasonal trend over 45 years

43275 a
The price of gold typically rises from early August until the end of February
Source: Seasonax

Gold prices typically experience a seasonal rally in the second half of the year, with the advance beginning in early August and extending into late February of the following year. The positive seasonal trend in gold prices is highlighted in dark blue.

The gold price has increased until the end of February in 29 out of 45 cases



Timing & trends

Technically Speaking: Bullish Or Bearish? What The Charts Say

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Posted by Lance Roberts - The Real Investment Report

on Tuesday, 13 December 2016 12:36

Bullish-or-Bearish-2-1During my morning reading, I ran across an interesting article from Paul Lim via Time giving several reasons why the stock market will “rise for a ninth straight year.”

“For ordinary Americans, 2017 is likely to feel like the best year economically since the Great Recession.

The recovery is finally expected to trickle down to you in the form of an improved job market, higher wages, and growing spending power.

And, despite the advanced age of this bull, your improving fortunes just may keep U.S. stocks chugging along too, as consumers represent 70% of the U.S. economy.“

While his points are valid, but very debatable, it is critical to remember the stock market and the economy are two different things. GDP growth and stock returns are not highly correlated. In fact, some analysis suggests that they are negatively correlated and perhaps fairly strongly so (-0.40).

However, it isn’t just Paul pushing the bullish commentary, but virtually the entirety of the media press. The siren’s song of “stay long my friends” has risen as of late as the market has soared following the election. But here is the interesting takeaway:

The reasoning for the continuance of the “bull rally” over the last several years has been footed by the common threads of:

.....read more HERE


Timing & trends

Sports Are a Great Short

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Monday, 12 December 2016 08:17


Many are now blaming Colin Kaepernick for the sharp decline in American football ratings. Kaepernick began kneeling during the national anthem in the NFL preseason as a protest of the injustices against people of color because of Trump as if he has done something. Kaepernick has continued to protest in every game this season. Now, more than 40 football players have joined Kaepernick. Some are just taking a knee, and others are sitting on the bench. But the real disturbing display is that many now stand with a raised fist, including such stars like Denver Broncos linebacker Brandon Marshall, Miami Dolphins running back Arian Foster, and New England Patriots tight end Martellus Bennett. Other athletes also joined the protests outside of games. Given what they make in salary, they do not have a lot to complain about. Instead of buying $300,000 cars and houses for millions. Nevertheless, this is feeding into the civil unrest cycle that will turn bloody in the year ahead.


Super Bowl viewership peaked in 2015 and has begun to decline from a major 26-year high. There was a surge that began with the 2007 crisis. As the economy turned down, the viewership soared from 93 million to a major high that almost reached 115 million in 2015. This year fell to 111 million, which is actually the Bearish Reversal. So if 2017 comes in under 111, this will confirm sports have begun a bear market.

The players who think they have the right to turn their sport into political protests fail to understand that people watch such things to escape. Trying to use their status to remind them of what they are trying to ignore has already set the decline in motion — right on time. It looks like sports are a great short. This was made visible by the bankruptcy of Sports Authority who closed their last store on May 18, 2016. Clearly, 2015.75 was a major turning point that is not confined to the just the peak in government. As people turn their backs on sports, it reflects that they are getting angrier at the economic situation of government. Kaepernick may be remembered as the man who killed football.


Timing & trends

Vienna Meeting Sends Oil Gushing

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Posted by Michael Campbell & Victor Adair

on Monday, 12 December 2016 07:47

After Opec cut, non-Opec producers has met in Vienna and cut as well. Victor on how high before a turnaround. More on Gold, Canadian Dollar, Interest rates, currencies and basic commodities.

....Michael's Editorial: Public vs Private Sector Compensation: It Is Just Not Fair

Lucas gusher



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