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Timing & trends

Optimistic About the Global Economy

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Monday, 30 October 2017 06:16

The following is an excerpt from Pivotal Events published for our subscribers October 19, 2017.

Screen Shot 2017-10-30 at 6.31.02 AM

Perspective

The headline about the cost of not being fully invested was from the manager at JP Morgan Asset Management who added "I've never been so optimistic about the global economy."

We are still disturbed by last week's observation from a very big money manager that the main risk is "policy error" by the Fed. This could be based upon 2007, when there was adamant conviction that the Fed, in making the perfectly-timed "cut" in the administered rate, could keep the mania going. One conclusion could be that the Fed's timing was not perfect and was an "error". The more practical observation is that the T-bill rate always plunges during a post-bubble collapse and the Fed rate follows the market rate of interest. Down.

T-bill rates, or equivalent increase in a boom and decrease in the consequent contraction.

And then there is the comment about creating new kinds of financial instruments. Which is a sign of speculation, but we do not know of any "alarm bells" at the Fed. Wild, but ephemeral financial instruments have been created with every great bubble since the first one in 1720.

Stock Markets



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Timing & trends

The Top 3 Stories of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 28 October 2017 08:37

screen 4f18104ff00561. The War Against Jobs

So many politicians arguing for higher taxes,  more regulations, the opposition to Free Trade, the whole anti-resource push and the moves to cool the real estate markets are all job killers.

...read more HERE

2. The Six Groups of Investors and Traders

by Martin Armstrong

The recent report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows that the professional investors have continued to bet on falling Dow Jones “short” as private investors are starting to bet heavily on rising prices ( “Long”). 

....continue HERE

3. Don't Leave Me This Way

For those wondering "how long" the US equity run can continue - this is a very insightful piece of analysis from our in-house team. ~ Brent Woya

....read it all HERE



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Timing & trends

A Shocking Gold Chart, Plus This Key Indicator Just Hit The Highest Level In 62 Years!

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Posted by KingWorldNews

on Friday, 27 October 2017 06:51

Nothing To See Here
October 26 (King World News) – While the government says there is little to no inflation, take a look at the price of skyrocketing lumber:

KWN-II-10262017

And here is a look at skyrocketing asset prices from Peter Boockvar....continue reading HERE

....also from KingWorldNews:

Hedge Funds Now Gambling Big, What Could Possibly Go Wrong?



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Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast: Dollar Surge - Crude Rally High

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 26 October 2017 16:28

Todd Market Forecast for Thursday October 26, 2017

Available Mon- Friday after 3:00pm Pacific.

DOW + 72 on 98 net advances

NASDAQ COMP - 7 on 52 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: In our update for yesterday, we said that we were already close to a rebound. We got it with the Dow and S&P 500, but the action of the NASDAQ Composite was a bit lackluster. However, there may be help on the way. Check out the chart.

Word was that the ECB would keep its policies loose and this helped European markets and this spread to the U.S. Also, profits were quite good.

A number of companies, including Amazon, reported solid earnings after the close.

GOLD: Gold was down $11. A sharp rally for the dollar helped push down gold.

CHART: The QQQ has been in a downtrend for a week and one half, but it is getting oversold (arrow).  

Screen Shot 2017-10-26 at 3.44.39 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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Timing & trends

This Bubble Gets Its “Alternative Paradigm”

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Posted by John Rubino - Dollarcollapse.cm

on Wednesday, 25 October 2017 06:39

bubbleTowards the end of financial bubbles, asset prices behave in ways that can’t be explained with rational/historical metrics. So new ones are invented to make sense of things. In the 1990s tech stock bubble, earnings were “optional” and “eyeballs” – that is, the number of visitors to a dot-com’s website – were what determined value. In the 2000s housing bubble, home prices would always rise, which justified pretty much any selling price and asset backed security structure. 

Now David Einhorn, a high-profile (and highly frustrated) hedge fund manager, has offered an explanation for today’s bubble: 

David Einhorn: ‘We wonder if the market has adopted an alternative paradigm’

(Yahoo! Finance) – Hedge fund billionaire David Einhorn is struggling to make sense of the stock market. In his latest investor letter, the founder of Greenlight Capital raised an interesting question about valuation.

“Given the performance of certain stocks, we wonder if the market has adopted an alternative paradigm for calculating equity value,” Einhorn wrote in a letter to investors dated October 24. “What if equity value has nothing to do with current or future profits and instead is derived from a company’s ability to be disruptive, to provide social change, or to advance new beneficial technologies, even when doing so results in current and future economic loss?”



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