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Timing & trends

Bitcoin – Oversold and Into Support

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Posted by Ross Clark - Institutional Advisorsk

on Thursday, 15 March 2018 06:58

Ross Clark has specialized in technical analysis of the markets since the 1970’s. Through exhaustive historical analysis he is so good at market timing and shifts in asset allocation that Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors brought him onboard. Today he gives quite an education in Post-Bubble environments and relates them to a current existing opportunity in Bitcoin. R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Bitcoin – Oversold and Into Support

Post-Bubble environments have some of the most repetitive characteristics as they unwind the excesses of the euphoric phase that took them into the top. Most result in lengthy bear markets (Dow 1929, Gold 1980, Nikkei 1989, NASDAQ 2000, Silver 2011, 3-D Systems 2014 & Shanghai 2015). A few manage to form new bases from which to move to new highs (Biotech’s 2015 & Canopy Growth 2016).

Excuse the busy chart

rc1

Click Chart for Larger Image

The overbought rally into January 8th (red arrows) in Bitcoin (NYXBT) and Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) provided a secondary sell signal following the Sequential 13 Sell on December 19th. Prices then dropped 65%. Good interim lows at that point in ‘Post Bubble’ markets have occurred around the 50-week ema or 100-week simple moving average. . . when coupled with a weekly CCI(8) reading of -150. Bitcoin generated a reading of -149 and GBTC at -143 at the 50-week ema during the February 9th low (blue arrows).

The next action was a retracement rally to February 20th, trading temporarily above our upside target of 10,600. It created the characteristic daily overbought signal against the upper 20-day Bollinger Band (green arrows). As of Friday, it has dropped to the lower Bollinger and Keltner

bands (orange arrow). Keltner Bands are a style of volatility band using Average True Ranges and generate a smoother band.

Whatever low is created within the next few days should become the critical one. We can expect a rally back through the upper Bollinger Band and more likely to the Keltner Band (currently 11,886).

The ability to hold above the low at this point of development was the case following last July’s low at $7.73 in Canopy Growth. The biotech index (BTK) did the same thing in 2016, holding above its July low of 2807. These went on to new highs. The other six examples violated the support (red line) and went on to make multi-year lows.

Weekly charts of other bubbles.
Red arrows identify secondary daily sale after the top.
Blue arrows are oversold weekly CCI(8) readings. Green arrows are next daily overbought
signal.. Orange arrows are daily oversold at the Bollinger Band. Note how important the red support line becomes.



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Timing & trends

Bob Hoye on "The Art Of The Deal"

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Saturday, 10 March 2018 19:44

BOB HOYE

PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS

MARCH 9, 2018

The Art of The Deal

                                                                                                                     – Donald J. Trump, 1987.

kjun

kjun2

BOB HOYE, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS 

WEBSITE: www.institutionaladvisors.com 2 



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Timing & trends

The Most Popular 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 10 March 2018 08:01

justins1. Justin Crosses The Line

    by Michael Campbell

I didn't want to go there. After all, every Prime Minister- Harper, Martin, Chretien - has a bad week, though probably not looking as good in a costume. But then Prime Minister Trudeau crossed a diplomatic line that couldn't be ignored.

 ....continue HERE

2. Silver Investment: The Lowest Risk, Highest Return Potential vs. Stocks & Real Estate

Steve St. Angelo, is that he makes a very clear argument using graphics and fundamentals. One look at the first chart certainly tells you which of Real Estate, the Dow Jones or Silver is in the "low risk" position.

....read it all HERE

3.  Todd Market Forecast: Bullish

#1 ranked Trader by Timer's Digest with a 31.6% return for 2017 is still looking for higher stock prices and has switched to bullish Gold in last evenings letter after going bearish the US Dollar on March 2nd

...read more HERE

 

 



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Timing & trends

Speaker Summaries From John Mauldin's 2018 Strategic Investment Conference

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Posted by Mauldin Economics

on Friday, 09 March 2018 06:45

The renowned financial expert John Mauldin who put together this conference has sent out this summary of the thinking of 14 different analysts as well as the forecasts of both Biotech and Crypto Currency panels. Interesting thoughts, well worth reading - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

Crypto-PanelDavid Rosenberg

For the 10th year running, Gluskin Sheff Chief Economist and Strategist David Rosenberg was the leadoff hitter at the SIC—and he had a warning for investors.

Rosenberg believes that the US is in the very late stages of the business cycle and that investors should now be de-risking their portfolios. He suggested that investors should be focusing on companies with high earnings visibility and low debt ratios.

On the macroeconomic level, Rosenberg said that long-term deflationary trends such as adverse demographics and high debt levels are stronger than ever. Given these trends, he thinks that the current uptick in inflation is little more than a transitory spurt and will soon fade away.

Finally, Rosenberg said that Gluskin Sheff, which has $9 billion in assets under management, recently moved to 25% cash across all their portfolios.

Louis Gave

Up next was Louis Gave, CEO of Hong-Kong based Gavekal. Gave has consistently been one of the highest-rated speakers at the SIC, and he didn’t disappoint with some unique insights into what is happening in China.

Gave pointed out that China is currently going through a huge economic paradigm shift, one which has profound investment implications.

For the past few decades, the incentive in China has been to grow as quickly as possible. But going forward, China’s incentives will be based around what President Xi Jinping has called a “Beautiful China.”

This means a more sustainable growth model with less use of materials such as concrete and coal.

Gave believes that this shift plays into China’s imperial ambitions—and that’s a trend he is investing around. He went on to suggest that investors should be looking at Chinese financial and consumer stocks, plus countries that will benefit from the One Belt, One Road infrastructure build-out.



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Timing & trends

Upcoming turnaround in mining stocks

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 01 March 2018 06:21

This analyst argues the HUI is going to drop down tor the 100 level at which point the opportunity in mining stocks willl be one in a lifetime. As he says "this may sound ridiculous, but the HUI at 200 sounded just as ridiculous when it was trading above 500 in late 2012. Yet, a year later, that’s exactly the value that we saw". All 10 charts will enlarge with a click. - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks 

mining trucks 7The price of no asset can move up or down in a straight line, so why should mining stocks be any different? They have been declining relentlessly for almost 2 weeks, erasing more than 10% of their value. Sharp? Definitely. Unsustainable? Perhaps. When will the turnaround take place? It depends.

It depends on the bullish signs and confirmations that we get. The correct question to be asking now is: “Why do we need any confirmations at all?” The reply is that because the situation is tense as there are good reasons for both a turnaround in a day or two and a continuation of the decline without a meaningful correction.

Before moving to the above details, we would like to give you an update on the gold-stock link.  Let’s start with gold’s price compared to the S&P 500 Index (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).



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