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Timing & trends

The Top 3 Stories of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 04 November 2017 06:45

alleghany-underground1. Hard Rock Specialist Eric Coffin's Picks & Prognostications

Eric Coffin says there is little doubt the base metal stocks are holding up better than their gold counterparts. But the devil is in the details. A couple of Eric's base metal picks are up over 150% already this year and some of his precious metal explorers are rebounding nicely since the summer. Mike grills Eric for specific picks and prognostications.

...read more HERE

2. Canada in for a Rough Patch Even if Rates Stay Low for a Long Time

The Loonie is tumbling and Canadian bonds rallying as the Bank of Canada backs away from its rate hiking plans in ‘surprise’ over the slowing Canadian economy.. 

....continue HERE

3. How Commodities Performed in 2017, and Why They’re Very Cheap

If you’re looking for action, the commodities sector has traditionally been a good place to find it.

With wild price swings, massive up-cycles, exciting resource discoveries, and extreme weather events all playing into things, there’s usually never a dull day in the sector. That being said, it’s hard to remember a more lackluster period for commodities than in the last couple of years.

For commodity bulls, the good news is that the sector is no longer tanking.

....read it all HERE



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Timing & trends

The AI Robot is Here

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Friday, 03 November 2017 07:02

 

....also from Martin:

Trump’s Tax Reform

"The negotiations on the details are in the final stages. If the reform is very real indeed, and make no mistake about it, this would be a tremendous triumph for Trump and for the nation as a whole. Trump has the potential to take the United States counter-cyclical (cycle inversion) that would actually put a tremendous amount of pressure on the rest of the world."

 

Screen Shot 2017-11-03 at 7.17.37 AM



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Timing & trends

Sentiment Speaks: What If I Told You The Stock Market Is Heading To 2800SPX?

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Thursday, 02 November 2017 06:35

Screen Shot 2017-11-02 at 6.46.15 AMSummary

- Recent price action.

- Anecdotal and other sentiment indications.

- Price pattern sentiment indications and upcoming expectations.

Recent price action

The market is hovering near all-time highs, and still has a bit higher to go before we see a real test of support.

Anecdotal and other sentiment indications

I remember back in 2015 and 2016, when I was posting my next major target region for the stock market between 2537-2611, I would certainly see many comments. In fact, many of the comments centered around why the fundamentals did not support such a “ridiculous” expectation. And, a whole list of reasons as to why the fundamentals did not support such an expectation then developed in the comments to my analysis.

Well, I want to remind you of an excerpt from an article written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF. Within his article, he noted the following regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes:

....continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

What The CAPE/VIX Ratio Tells Us Is Likely Looming Ahead!

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Posted by Gordon Long via Seeking Alpha

on Wednesday, 01 November 2017 07:19

Summary

The long term CAPE/VIX ratio suggests a strong possibility of a looming US Recession in 2018 which would be an unexpected shock to the market.

The VIX going back to 2015 is in a clear ending diagonal suggesting historic lows will soon end.

The Shiller CAPE at ~30 is presently registering the third highest level in recorded US Market history. The chances of it falling in 2018 are extremely high.

The longer term VIX and CAPE charts support what the historical CAPE/VIX ratio is signalling.

We were in the process of writing about the technical pattern in the VIX when we came across some research by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capitalillustrating the historical correlation of the CAPE/VIX Ratio to US Recessions go back to 1990. We have been warning about a unexpected US Recession scare coming in 2018.

saupload 20171020 schiff1 0

A fairly reliable technical indicator is a megaphone topping pattern. We annotated Schiff's chart to more visibly reflect this:

....continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

Stock Market Valuation and Sentiment at Extreme:

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Posted by Jas Jain

on Monday, 30 October 2017 06:23

SP 500 Total Earnings Same as 2013 and Index Up 40% Since

Earnings per share for S&P 500 are up 6.6% since the end of 2013, all the gain is due to share buyback, while the total reported earnings are the same (see Fig. 1).

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If the total earnings are the same as 3 years and 10 months ago without a recession we can say that we are operating in an essentially flat earnings environment. During the same period the index is up 40%. The only reason that earnings are up for the past 12 months is that earnings per share went down almost 20% since the end of 2014 to August 2016.

A much worse picture of market valuation emerges if we look at the Market Cap to GDP Ratio. Fig. 2 shows the ratio of total market cap of S&P 500 companies to the GDP. If we include all the public companies the ratio is between 140-150%. The only period when the market valuation was more extreme than today was during 1999-2000.



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