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Timing & trends

An Invitation to the Auction

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Posted by Michael Campbell

on Friday, 22 June 2018 17:08

silver ingots

You may be tired of hearing about Special Olympics but lucky for the 4,600 athletes with intellectual disabilities and their families – I’m not tired of looking for help. The reason is straightforward.  Way too often children and adults with intellectual disabilities are overlooked, marginalized and isolated in our communities.

Special Olympics goes a long way to rectifying that by providing an opportunity to participate in a variety of sports, developmental programs and health screenings. Just as importantly, for many of our athletes Special Olympics provides the only connection to the community at large.  It’s where they make friends. As one of our athletes said, "before I joined Special Olympics I didn't know there were other people like me."

I think it's safe to say that for the vast majority of our athletes our programs end their isolation, build their self-esteem and have a profound impact on the quality of their lives and their families.

This is where you come in.

Once again I am participating in The Goldcorp Invitational Golf Tournament. (Why do I feel I should apologize in advance to all golfers?)

It’s one of only two public fundraisers in the year and hence is essential in enabling Special O  to provide programs for kids as young as two.  Obviously not everyone can participate in the golf tournament but we can all help by supporting bidding in our online auction.

It runs for only a week and closes on Thursday, June 28th.  You can bid right through the evening when the auction closes.  Not really different than if you were there, except you won’t have to hear me whine about my golf or see me in Laderhosen.  

Here’s some sample auction items  …

100 oz silver bar, 2 tickets to the 2018 Grey Cup in Edmonton, Monster DNA Carbon Headphones,  4 tickets to Bard on the Beach, 3 bottles of Terroir Wine, Chateau Whistler stay and golf – and so many more.

Warning: Ozzie’s got his eye on the Power Wheels 6 volt Corvette – and you will definitely be bidding against me on lots of other items – why? Because Special O athletes and their families deserve our support.

Click here to go to the auction site – and please start bidding.

www.goldcorpinvitational.com

Many thanks, Mike

Thanks for reading this – and I hope you can find the time to help out.  Just bid anytime – day or night right through the auction on June 28th (ending about 7:45 PDT)

Happy bidding.

Ozzie



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Timing & trends

How To Settle Down Your "Fear of Missing Out" In Mining Stocks

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Thursday, 21 June 2018 07:12

gold-mining-stocks

Everyone wants to buy at the absolute bottom in any market.  Yet, most actually buy at the highs, expecting much higher prices, and then sell at the lows, while expecting even lower prices.  The gold market is no different.

Back in 2011, when the metals were approaching their highs, most analysts were suggesting that investors keep buying gold as this would be their last opportunity before gold eclipses $2,000, never to look back again.  Moreover, these same analysts remained bullish throughout the decline during 2012, 2013, 2014 and most of 2015.  Amazingly, as we approached the end of 2015, these same analysts ultimately turned bearish, and were just as confident that gold would certainly break below $1,000 as they were confident that gold would certainly eclipse $2,000 in 2011. It truly is amazing how markets work against the masses.

Yet, in 2011, we saw that impending top coming, as we warned those following us in August of 2011:

“since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave “blow-off-top,” I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time.”

Then again, at the end of 2015, we warned:

“As we move into 2016, I believe there is a greater than 80% probability that we finally see a long term bottom formed in the metals and miners and the long term bull market resumes.  Those that followed our advice in 2011, and moved out of this market for the correction we expected, are now moving back into this market as we approach the long term bottom.  In 2011, before gold even topped, we set our ideal target for this correction in the $700-$1,000 region in gold. We are now reaching our ideal target region, and the pattern we have developed over the last 4 years is just about complete. . . For those interested in my advice, I would highly suggest you start moving back into this market with your long term money . . .”

Moreover, we rolled out our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015 to begin to buy miners we saw bottoming, in the expectation of the impending bottom to the complex.

So, as many were buying at the highs in 2011 at the urging of most analysts of the time, we were selling.  And, as many were selling at the lows in 2015 at the urging of most analysts of the time, we were buying. 

But, while we view the market as likely having bottomed in its long-term structure in 2015/2016, and having begun a multi-decade bull market, as I have outlined many times before, it does not mean we will be going up in a straight line.  In fact, the last year and a half of sideways consolidation clearly supports this perspective. 

You see, markets are not linear, so they go through periods of progression and regression.  Only those who are gold bugs view gold as only supposed to be moving in one direction, whereas the only reason it could fall, in their mind, would be manipulation.  And, I have addressed this view extensively in this article.

https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Was-The-Metals-Market-Manipulated-To-Drop-From-To-201709194206284.html

So, if we understand that the metals will naturally go through periods of progression and regression, we can maintain a much healthier perspective on the market, which can keep us grounded during both the periods of progression and regression, understanding that each has its own place in the overall structure of gold’s movement.

This brings me to the point of this article.  As you probably know, I view the metals as just starting a multi-decade bull market.  In fact, if you have read my analysis through the years, you would know that I view the current set up in the metals in the same manner as Ralph Nelson Elliott viewed the Dow when it was around 100 (yes, 100) back in the 1941, as World War II was raging around him, when he provided the following prognostication:

[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.

This was probably one of the best, if not the best, market call of all time.  And, as I just noted, I view the set up in the mining complex in the same way Elliott viewed the Dow back in 1941.

But, again, I do not view this impending bull market as moving in one direction all the time. Rather, we will have periods of progression and regression.  While I expect the next period of progression to begin quite soon, I feel that you may be able to keep your FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in check for a few more years, even though it may be tested later this year in 2018.

I would like to explain this perspective through the use of the daily ABX chart.  As we all know, the ABX is arguably the leading mining company in the metals complex.  So, I view it as providing a nice perspective regarding the potential progression and regression I see over the coming years in some of the larger miners.

As we can see, we have completed an initial 5 wave structure off the 2015 low in the ABX into the high of the summer of 2016.  Since that time, we have pulled back in a very corrective, overlapping 2nd wave.  Currently, I believe we are still working on the wave 1 of iii off the recent lows which we caught in our secondary “buy zone.” Based upon the current structure, it would suggest that it will take the rest of 2018 to complete this wave 1 (assuming we hold the bullish support highlighted on the 60-minute chart).

After we complete this wave 1 into the 20-22 region, I would assume we will see another long pullback in wave 2 during 2019 towards the 14-17 region.  This would then likely set us up for a major break out in 2020, which will likely be pointing to at least the 40-46 region, with the potential to extend as high as the 57 region, depending upon extensions.  And, that would only be for wave 3 of iii off the 2015 lows. 

So, as you can see, while there can be some nice upside which we still expect in 2018, the real fireworks seem to be setting up for 2020 in the ABX, which we may be able to extrapolate to the rest of the complex. 

This means that, while you will likely feel serious FOMO on the next rally that we expect can take hold into the end of 2018, you will likely have one more pullback/buying opportunity in 2019 before the main event takes hold in 2020. 

As we continue to focus on the smaller degree time frames during the week, and as we track the next smaller degree break-out set up, I think it may benefit many of you to take a deep breath and focus on the larger perspectives in the market from time to time.  While I believe we are setting up a major move in the mining complex in the coming years, I think the ABX shows us that the major money may not be made until 2020 and beyond.

So, for those of you who have been stressing during this last year and a half consolidation in the market, I have three words for you:

TAKE A CHILL!

See charts illustrating the wave counts on ABX.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

 



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Timing & trends

Take the Long-Term View in a Late-Cycle Market

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investorsors

on Wednesday, 20 June 2018 08:22

Frank Holmes on how to handle the last stage in an up cycle of a bull market when prices can soar into a wild spike top. Frank also covers the current situation in Oil, Gold and why he finds domestic-focused small to mid-cap stocks so attractive right now - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

COMM-rebalance-stick-plan-remember-get-invested-stay-invested-samantha-azzarello-06152018

The U.S. inflation story made further inroads this month, with year-over-year price growth for consumers and producers alike hitting multiyear highs. U.S. consumer prices expanded at their strongest pace in more than six years, climbing to an annual change of 2.8 percent in May. Prices for final demand goods, meanwhile, grew 3.1 percent, their strongest annual surge since December 2011.

annual consumer prices advance the most in six years
click to enlarge

As you might expect, energy was the greatest contributor to higher prices in May, with fuel oil jumping more than 25 percent from the same month a year ago. The current average price for a gallon of regular gas nationwide was just under $3.00, compared to only $2.33 in June 2017, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Inflation is set to get an even bigger jolt now that President Donald Trump has formally approved 25 percent tariffs on as much as $50 billion of Chinese goods. China has already announced retaliatory action. While I agree some targeted tariffs are welcome to address intellectual property theft, tariffs at the wholesale level are essentially regulations that threaten to undermine all the work Trump has done to supercharge the U.S. economy. They act as headwinds to further growth, which in turn makes gold look attractive as a safe haven investment.

Blaming OPEC

Let’s return to energy for a moment. Hot off the success of his historic summit with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un, Trump took a stab at foreign oil producers last week, tweeting:“Oil prices are too high, OPEC is at it again. Not good!”

The president isn’t wrong, but I believe he may be overselling the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ influence here. In May, the 14-member cartel added an extra 35,000 barrels per day (bpd) in output compared to the previous month, to reach a total of 31.8 million bpd. This is down from the average 32.6 million and 32.4 million bpd OPEC collectively produced in 2016 and 2017.

Venezuela’s output deteriorated once again, falling more than 42 percent in May to 1.4 million bpd, which is less than half of what it produced 20 years ago.

The beleaguered South American country didn’t have the biggest monthly decline among OPEC members, however—that title belonged to Nigeria, which saw its April-to-May production tumble 53.5 percent to 1.7 million bpd. Analysts predict output could fall further to 1.4 million bpd by July—a level not seen since 1988—as the country’s Nembe Creek Trunk Line (NCTL) has had to be closed recently to address product theft along its route.

OPEC will meet later this month and is widely expected to loosen production curbs as global demand strengthens. In the meantime, the U.S. continues to pump even more oil on a monthly basis, and by 2019 it could be producing more than 11 million bpd for the first time ever. This would make it the world’s top oil producer, above Russia.

Want to learn more? Watch this brief video featuring Samuel Pelaez, who outlines the six factors we use to select best-in-class oil and gas exploration and production companies!  

Gold Glitters on Inflation Fears and U.S. Budget Imbalance



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Timing & trends

Gold: Will Goyal Make It Royal?

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 19 June 2018 10:54

Stewart Thomson's 25 point summary of what is happening in the US Dollar, the US Stock market, Central Banks & Interest Rates, Treasury Bonds, Gold Stocks Gold.

 Most importantly if Piyush Goyal should take charge of the Indian finance ministry on a permanent basis "he will likely be the catalyst that launches a massive and sustained rise in Indian gold demand. Demand that should be enough to drive gold in an Elliott C wave advance to at least $1650, and probably $2000!" - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

June 18, 2018 

1.   The dollar and the US stock market may be starting their next major legs down today. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this ominous US dollar versus Japanese yen chart.

2.   Central banks around the world are ramping up their tightening.  Back in 2013-2014 when I predicted quantitative tightening and relentless rate hikes were imminent, almost nobody believed me.  

3.   I promised that this tightening cycle would be like no other because of the enormous size of the QE money balls in Japan, Europe, and America.  The tightening action is moving the money balls out of the deflationary government bonds asset class and into the inflationary fractional reserve banking system.

4.   Powell just raised rates again and is poised to launch another increase in quantitative tightening.  He’s also beginning to change the spread between the Fed funds rate and the excess reserves rate that banks get paid to keep money at the Fed.  Going forward, I expect him to put much more pressure on banks to move money out of the Fed.  This is highly inflationary action.

5.   Please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge.  The US stock market looks like a technical train wreck.



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Timing & trends

The Miss America beauty pageant & the hemline indicator — this is next level stuff

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Posted by Jeff Greenblatt - Futures

on Friday, 15 June 2018 09:08

This great article exposes how far the "hemline indicator" has gone recently. The "hemline indicator" methodology says women’s hemlines rise with the stock market. So what does it mean when the Miss America beauty pageant has declared it was no longer a "beauty pageant" & eliminated the swimsuit competition altogether - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

So, what about that wedge in the Nasdaq I was looking at last week? The upward momentum stalled 61 days from the prior high. Oddly enough, it was tech stocks that stalled last week while McDonald's had that big day on Thursday which drove the Dow. MCD is rated seventh in the Dow in terms of its weighting. A lot of other Dow names started well but backed off. On the same day all the FAANGs got hit. The SOX got hit while oil stocks were strong.

Even financials under the BKX recovered as the situation stabilized in Italy. Right now, markets could be in wait and see mode as history is made this week in Singapore. History of another kind may have been made over the weekend with the G-7 meeting. I’m not going to weigh in on the controversies of trade wars, press conferences and mean tweets. Upon deeper observation, I’ve discussed what cycle experts call the fourth turning, which has happened every 70-80 years since the American Revolution. What we are witnessing here is a dissolution of old alliances and a transition to something new. The architecture set up in the post-World War II era is crumbling. The Europeans have threatened to come up with an agreement without the United States. The new Prime Minister of Italy Conte tweeted that he agreed. We may also be front seat observers to a new alignment this week as Trump attempts to bring Kim Jong Un into the world of nations.

Also on tap is the big Fed meeting as well as the European Central Bank meeting a day later. All of this comes a week before the all-important seasonal change point where markets tend to change direction. This year the calendar falls a little different as the Fed meeting is usually the same week as the seasonal change point. What does that mean to us? We could see added choppiness given the cycles and the degree of important events materializing at the same time.

In a major new development, the Transports broke through the congestion zone of the past two weeks to the upside. Since there was a key balance line sitting in that zone, whichever way the worm turned was going to be important. I told you if they broke below congestion it was over for the Transports. But the market bounced back and now it appears we can get a leg up at least through the week and the door is open for a Transport rally into the seasonal change point next week. Next week is a long time from now. My indicators suggest the Transports can stay on the current path for another 5 trading days. Even housing broke out of its congestion to the upside. All this is happening while the bond market stays flat. Prices are no longer going up providing interest rate relief in the near term, but at least they aren’t going down.

Crude oil has remained flat around its low after a decent amount of technical damage on the recent downtrend. Oil stocks have outperformed and if you are an oil bull, its always better to see the stock lead the commodity.

Gold is also in a holding pattern after a decent low and pinballing inside tight trend lines.

But the most important news item of the week might not have been Italy, G7 or even North Korea. The Miss America beauty pageant announced it was eliminating the swimsuit competition and it was no longer a "beauty pageant." Are you familiar with the "hemline indicator?" This was first observed by University of Pennsylvania economist George Taylor in 1926. Prechter’s Socionomics correctly points out "hemline indicator" methodology says women’s hemlines rise with the stock market. If a hemline is an indication of an expanding or contracting social mood, what are we to make of America’s most popular beauty pageant completely changing its mission? This is next level stuff.

A WWD.com article from Feb. 7, 2018, also projects the fall collection in fashion has lower hemlines projected. I’ve heard experts and those with ‘animal spirits’ suggest the swimsuit competition will return within three years or the Miss America pageant will be gone within five years. That may be the case but keep in mind it’s the rising or sinking social mood that will be driving the bus. What is the takeaway for those of us who observe, analyze, invest and trade these markets? This is an indication of a contractionary social mood and should lead to a be bear phase or a complete bear market. This is not a "today" indicator but something to keep in the back of your mind as time goes by.

For our part, we’ll be keeping close tabs on the next 610-day window coming up in July. The first 610-day window to the August 2015 low already fired off in January. There is a very good chance we’ll see another reaction in July. With the NDX and Russell 2000 at new highs and the Dow barely beyond the middle of the range, there is a divergent market for certain. This is an indication of a topping process but this one is a very long process. For now, it’s not going to hurt that sectors like transportation and housing are catching second winds. That’s the good news.

With that, I leave a word of caution. There could be an important turn by the middle of next week. Not all the market could turn, it might turn out to be a narrowing of the advance. We could see something top by next week which we will only recognize in hindsight. The turn window in July? Let’s take this one step at a time.

About the Author

Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.

Lucas Wave International (https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com) provides forecasts of financial markets via the Fibonacci Forecaster and other reports. The company provides coaching/seminars to teach traders around the world about this cutting edge methodology.



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