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Timing & trends

Money Talks is Offline Until December 28th. Merry Christmas Happy Hanukkah Everyone!

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Posted by Michael Campbell

on Friday, 23 December 2016 11:30

build-wealthThe 3 Most Interesting Articles This Week:

1. Want to build wealth? Break these 8 rules

Following are eight rules worth breaking -- in upside-down order -- and what financial gurus have to say about them

....read more HERE

2. Yikes! The Federal Culture of Entitlement

These numbers will shock you. StatsCan's Chief Economic Analyst took a look at "sick days" etc of Federal employees to discover that employees are taking 26% of the year off. That's not all either, it's worse than that.

........read more HERE

3. The Implosion Of The Global Markets Has Started And Can’t Be Stopped

While the financial networks continue to focus on the rising U.S. stock market and Dollar, this represents a mindset that has totally gone insane.

...continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

Feds Stance on rate hikes equates to Nonsense & Masses are Turning Bullish on Stocks

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Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Friday, 23 December 2016 06:27

Beware of all enterprises that require a new set of clothes.

Henry David Thoreau

tacRemember over a year ago when they first raised hikes-they huffed and puffed warning everyone that they would raise rates several times in 2016 and viola nothing happened until now. Now they are repeating the same thing all over again. To illustrate how bad this economy take into consideration that the Fed has raised rates only twice in the last decade; the economy was a lot stronger in 2006 and 2007 than it is today. Yellen’s statement below illustrates how the Fed is positioning itself so that it can pull another “oops we were wrong once again” moment.

"All the (Federal Open Market Committee) participants recognize that there is considerable uncertainty about how economic policies may change and what effect they may have on the economy," Yellen said

Has anything changed since the last hike; is the economy stronger? The only thing that is getting stronger is the illusion that this economy is on the mend. If the economy was improving, then a rising rate environment could be seen through a bullish lens. In this instance, this economic recovery is a joke; it is all an illusion that is funded by debt. If the supply of hot money is cut, the markets will tank. The real estate sector is not stable yet, and most people already can’t afford a house, so raising rates is a recipe for disaster. Our take is that the Fed has raised rates to give them more room to manoeuvre while making it appear that they are loath to embrace negative rates. The Fed has to play a delicate balancing game; the US dollar has to look attractive to the world, as that is what gives the Fed the power to create unlimited money. The US dollar is the World’s reserve currency. If it were not, then the US would have followed Greece’s path long ago. It is our ability to rob the world by creating money out of thin air at other nation’s expense that gives the US capacity to hold onto the top dog position precariously. It is precarious because it is just a matter of time before China displaces the US. On a purchasing power parity basis, China has already replaced the US as the World’s largest economy. One day the world will realise that the emperor is naked, fat, old and ugly as sin. However, as there is still some time before this comes into play, we are not going to address this issue.

We believe that the Fed will have no option but to eventually embrace negative rates unless they are looking to trigger a crash. The Fed is famous for artificially creating every boom and bust cycle since the US went off the Gold standard. While it might appear that we are in a bubble like phase as far as the stock market is concerned, one needs to remember that the masses have not benefitted much from the current rally. History illustrates that the Fed usually pops the bubble after the masses have fully embraced the market. Additionally, the masses are not euphoric; however, they are turning more bullish, which suggests as we alluded in this article Stock Market Bulls-Stock Market fools-Market Crash next or is this just an Illusion, that it would not surprise us if the markets experienced a decent correction next year. In the interim, we think the Fed’s current move is just a trick to make it appear to the world that our economy is healthy. Now the Fed can lower rates twice before they move to zero, but it will force the rest of the world to lower their rates even more; effectively still making the US dollar the most attractive currency.

The bond market which many have given up for dead are looking for an excuse to rally sharply. We will look at this in more detail in a follow-up article. However, if you look at the long-term chart below, it is easy to spot that bonds have not crashed. They were pushed to extreme levels as individuals continued to embrace bonds for years despite the miserable returns they offered due to the safety factor. The masses, in general, were sceptical of this bull market and bought the hype that it was going to fall apart tomorrow for the past nine years. After Trump won money started moving out of bonds and into the market. What we have is a simple rotation; money is moving from one market into another. Now bonds are extremely oversold, and the markets are trading close to the extremely overbought ranges. When the markets start to pullback money will flow into bonds pushing rates lower. At that point, one will be able to tell if the rally in bonds is just a dead cats bounce or if the bull is ready to run again.  

bdec23



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Timing & trends

Marc Faber on The FED Rates Hike

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Posted by Marc Faber - Gloom Boom & Doom Report

on Monday, 19 December 2016 18:44

imagesUS Fed not expanding asset base; dollar overvalued: Marc Faber 

The editor of Gloom Bloom & Doom Report told CNBC-TV18 that contrary to the popular opinion that emerging markets have performed poorly in 2016, any market outside the US looks very attractive now especially in terms of valuations. Investors are too bullish about the US, and are neglecting Japan and Europe, he said.

 Anuj: Are you happy that at least now we are moving away from money printing or do you think this is just one of those random rate hikes and in 2017 Fed will develop cold feet again. Your first thoughts?

Marc Faber : First of all we need to understand that central banks they talk to each other. So, whereas the Fed is not expanding its asset base at the present time the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) are still buying assets to the tune of approximately USD 150 billion a month. Some of that money that is kind of - as you would say printed in Europe and in Japan then flows outside Japan and Europe it causes the euro weakness, it causes the Japanese Yen weakness but it strengthens the US dollar and it strengthens the US assets. So, basically the central bank in the US the Federal Reserve they can have other central banks print money for them for a while and then in 2017 possibly the dollar becomes too strong and the US economy rather weakens than strengthens then they can print again themselves. They have an excuse. So, basically I still maintain that central banks will keep on feeding the world with excess liquidity.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/us-not-expanding-asset-base-dollar-overvalued_8117901.html

...also, Michael Campbell's Featured Guest: A Fascinating Glimpse Into the Future

 

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

 
 

 



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Timing & trends

A Fascinating Glimpse Into the Future

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Posted by Michael Campbell & Blake Corbet

on Monday, 19 December 2016 07:51

Featured Guest Blake Corbett, Head of Technology, Health Care and Investment Banking on several investments, some of the best, artificial intelligence included to take advantage of dramatic changes taking place in the World.

...Michael's Saturday Editorial: Both Sides Don't Trust the System

future

 



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Interesting Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 17 December 2016 09:08

161211-011. I Hope You've Been Paying Attention?

- Dallas has blocked withdrawals from the police and firefighters pension fund.
 
- The Italian government is scrambling to prevent the world’s oldest bank - Monte Paschi - from going down.
 
- 446,000 people in the States joined the ranks of the permanently unemployed in November alone pushing the total number to an all time high 95.1 million. 
 
- Meanwhile global stocks markets have added over $1 trillion dollars since Donald Trump’s election.

...read more HERE

2. The Cycle of Assassination & War Bottomed in 2014

There is an 11-year average cycle for attempts to assassinate the president. Here is the list below:.....read more HERE

3. The Trump Rally Will Morph

The presidential transition brings new surprises almost every day. Last week Donald Trump’s spokesman revealed, via an offhand comment, that President-Elect Trump had sold all his publicly traded stocks back in June. That’s months before he won the election and faced conflict-of-interest questions......

continue reading HERE



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