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Timing & trends

German bonds may offer the clearest warning that the stock market’s bull run is sputtering

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Posted by Tom McClellan via MarketWatch

on Monday, 03 July 2017 08:57

Tom McClellan sees a warning that ‘the great bull market in stock prices from the 2009 low is in its last stages’

German bunds are trying to deliver a message to stock-market investors: Achtung!

According to market technician Tom McClellan, a narrowing yield spread between German 10-year bonds, known as bunds TMBMKDE-10Y, +5.09% and their U.S. counterpart TMUBMUSD10Y, +2.24%  has historically been a bad omen for equity markets. 

The yield differential between bunds, which were carrying a negative yield about a year ago and reached a record spread—2.38 percentage points—on Dec. 28 with U.S. 10-year paper, has been on a tightening trend lately, illustrated by one McClellan chart (see below):

MW-FP544 treasu 20170630220202 NS

....continue reading HERE



Timing & trends

Here Comes Big Marijuana!

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Posted by Bill Hall - Money and Markets

on Friday, 30 June 2017 08:19

In last week’s Money and Markets article, I told you about how one of America’s biggest sin stock industries is positioning itself to profit from the expected legalization of marijuana at the federal level in the U.S.

In that article, I discussed how Big Tobacco executives have been exploring the opportunities of legal marijuana since the 1970s.

All this came to light after researchers combed through more than 80,000 top-secret documents, which had been turned over to the public following the 1998 national tobacco settlement.

Meeting behind closed doors, tobacco execs from companies, like Philip Morris, considered marketing gimmicks like combining weed with menthol cigarettes.

Yes, even in those early days, tobacco company bosses knew the potential gold mine that marijuana could be if it became legal across the U.S.

Indeed, here’s how the legal marijuana business in the U.S. has grown:

According to reputable market research, the legal marijuana industry in the U.S. was a $3.4 billion business in 2015. In 2016, the market doubled to $7.1 billion.

And two major studies show that the legal marijuana business in the U.S. will explode to $40 billion over the next five years … and possibly top $50 billion over the next decade.

Now, take a look at the chart below. There, you’ll see even more reasons why Big Tobacco is so interested in the marijuana business:


chart1s
Click image for larger view

That’s right, if the estimated yearly demand for marijuana is in the right ballpark, then more Americans crave cannabis than cabernet or candy bars.



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Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast: US Dollar Collapses "Change To Bearish"

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 28 June 2017 05:54

Todd Market Forecast for Tuesday June 27, 2017 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 99 on 850 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 101 on 900 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: Our short term gauges have a very good record, but they're not perfect. This is especially true if an unexpected event hits the markets.

Today, news that the Senate would not vote on the Republican health care bill until after the 4th of July called into question the Trump agenda which had supported the markets. It obviously means that Senate leaders are having trouble lining up votes.

In addition, Mario Draghi of the ECB made some comments about inflation that sent European and U.S. bonds sharply lower and European stocks were also hit.

But help may be on the way. Check the chart.

GOLD: Gold could only manage a gain of $4, in spite of the dollar's collapse. This should get interesting.

CHART Five day RSI is back to oversold levels. This is normally a positive for the next couple of weeks.  

Screen Shot 2017-06-28 at 5.23.39 AM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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Timing & trends

Fussy Traders Make More

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Posted by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScoresores

on Tuesday, 27 June 2017 07:06

Screen Shot 2017-06-27 at 6.33.43 AMIn this week's issue:

 

 

In This Week's Issue:

- Stockscores' Market Minutes Video - The Profit is in the Patience
- Stockscores Trader Training - Fussy Traders Do Better
- Stock Features of the Week - Stockscores Simple Weekly, under $10

Stockscores Market Minutes - Prioritize Your Trades
Your winners have to pay for your inevitable losers. This week, I discuss the importance of having patience with your winners and how to know when it is time to exit them. Then, my weekly market analysis which highlights why June has been a poor month for short term trading. Finally, my trade of the week on CPRX. Click Here to Watch
To get instant updates when I upload a new video, subscribe to the Stockscores YouTube Channel

Trader Training - Fussy Traders Do Better
Traders, particularly those who need to make money rather than those who would like to make money, tend to have a fear of missing out. They hear about a trading idea or find an opportunity with their own effort and make the trade with less thought than they might put into buying a microwave. They can invest thousands of dollars on an impulse, much like the drunken gambler who throws down $1000 on Five Red.



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Timing & trends

paul-rejczak Stocks At Record Highs: Market Sentiment Still Bullish

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Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Monday, 26 June 2017 08:03

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.5% on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following economic data, quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its last Monday's new all-time high of 2,453.82. It has reached new record high after a breakout above short-term consolidation along the level of 2,420-2,440. Stocks have rebounded strongly following their mid-May quick two-session sell-off and continued over eight-year-long bull market off 2009 lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains close to its last Tuesday's new all-time high at the level of 21,535.03. The technology Nasdaq Composite was relatively stronger than the broad stock market on Friday, as it continued to retrace its recent move down. The nearest important support level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,430-2,435, marked by last Monday's daily gap up of 2,433.15-2,441.79. The next level of support is at 2,415-2,420, marked by some recent local lows. The support level is also at 2,400-2,410, marked by the May 25 daily gap up of 2,405.58-2,408.01, among others. On the other hand, level of resistance is at 2,450-2,455, marked by new all-time high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see overbought conditions and negative technical divergences. The S&P 500 index is trading within its three-week-long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

1

Will Uptrend Continue?



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The nervousness surounding the current bull market remains significant. While there are a number of unsettling indicators suggesting a serious...

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