Timing & trends

Technically Speaking: Early Warning Signs In COT Positioning

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Posted by Lance Roberts - Real Investment Advice

on Tuesday, 09 January 2018 07:44


This past weekend, I discussed the surge in market exuberance in terms of both individual and professional investors. Of course, such surges in exuberance is generally indicative of the “capitulation phase” as the last of the “holdouts” finally jump back into a market which “can seemingly never go down.”

But therein lies the danger. It worth noting that despite the “hope” of more fiscal support for the markets, longer-term conditions currently persist which have led to rather sharp market reversions in the past.

“There are many factors from economic, monetary, geopolitical, and financial which have ignited each bubble, and bust, period throughout history. However, each bubble had in common the same extreme levels of confidence, exuberance, valuation and price extension that we see today. And they all ended the same, as well.”

Regardless, the market is currently ignoring such realities as the belief “this time is different” has become overwhelming pervasive. Importantly, such levels of exuberance have NEVER been resolved by a market that moved sideways.

.....read more HERE 


Timing & trends

Melt-up, Up, and Away

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Posted by Michael Ballanger- Streetwise Reports

on Monday, 08 January 2018 06:38

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger likes what he sees for gold in 2018's first week of trading. 


While the moniker for this missive is "Gold and Gold Miners," I just sit back in absolute AWE as the global equity investors (otherwise known as "Stock jockeys") have decided that "cash is TRASH!" and despite a massive "miss" in the employment numbers this morning, within seconds of the release, the spin doctors manning the equity trading desks deemed that number "bullish" because it is less inflationary and may cause the Fed to "pause." So dollar-yen rallies, the USD index has a minor pop, gold sells off, and stocks come out of the gate up another 0.25% with all of the bubblicious bravado of a high school quarterback getting his first win. 

The chart of the S&P shown below is a classic illustration of what occurs when global central banks open up the monetary spigots and flood the world financial markets with unchallenged credit and liability-free liquidity. It is this "inflationary spiral" that enhances "the replacement value of equities" and sends literally everything skyward. Since the two biggest collateral risks to the banks are real estate and stock buyback loans, it is no surprise that this tsunami of phony, counterfeit currency of all colors indiscriminate of flag has not only mitigated those risks but also floated the underlying collateral into the ozone layer. Don't forget that even Ben Bernanke admitted that no one could predict the outcome of all of that "quantitative easing" that saved JPM and Goldman and Citi and BofA from disappearing from the face of the earth and now we are seeing what currency debasement exercises are truly all about. Record highs EVERYWHERE (except gold and silver) as monetary inflation sows its price inflation seeds.



Timing & trends

The Leveraged Economy BLOWS UP In 2018

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSRocco Report

on Friday, 05 January 2018 06:30

Enjoy the good times while you can because when the economy BLOWS UP this next time, there is no plan B.  Sure, we could see massive monetary printing by Central Banks to continue the madness a bit longer after the market crashes, but this won’t be a long-term solution.  Rather, the U.S. and global economies will contract to a level we have never experienced before.  We are most certainly in unchartered territory.

Seneca-cliff-2Before I get into my analysis and the reasons we are heading towards the Seneca Cliff, I wanted to share the following information.  I haven’t posted much material over the past week because I decided to spend a bit of quality time with family.  Furthermore, a good friend of mine past away which put me in a state of reflection.  This close friend was also very knowledgeable about our current economic predicament and was a big believer in owning gold and silver.  So, it was a quite a shame to lose someone close by who I could chat with about these issues.



Timing & trends

Our Outlook for 2018: Stocks, gold, oil and more.

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Posted by Edelson Institute

on Thursday, 04 January 2018 07:08

Special edition:
The Edelson Institute

Outlook for 2018


  • 2017 Was Big. Can 2018 Be Bigger?
  • 6 Bears Growling at the Door
  • 7 Bulls Pawing at the Floor
  • Two Charts to Warm Your Heart
  • Oil Bubbles Up
  • Copper Shines on China Demand
  • What About Gold
  • Areas of Interest in 2018

 2017 Was Big. Can 2018 Be Bigger?

It is the best of markets. But according to some, it is the worst of markets.

The S&P 500 gained 20% in 2017. But there are those who say it’s on the precipice.

Commodities are booming. But some say they’re about to get shredded.

Crypto currencies are the next best thing … or cryptos are already over.

It’s a confusing world out there. I wouldn’t blame you for being confused. Or even scared.

No one can predict the future with precision. But I can tell you this with great confidence: I think there are some extraordinary opportunities on the table. Ones that, if you miss, you may regret for the rest of your life.

If you aren’t in this market, your odds of missing out on the good days will hurt more than missing out on the bad days.

Now, I’m not some perma-bull Wall Street pumper. It’s simple math.

Per an analysis by Calamos Investments, $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 at the start of 1996 would’ve grown to $43,930 by the end of 2016. An 8.19% annualized return. That assumes a buy-and-hold strategy. Plus, it assumes staying in the market through the Tech Wreck of 2000-’02 and the great crisis of 2007-’09.

However, if you take out the five best days over that time frame, the return shrinks to an annualized gain of 5.99%.

Those big days, when they come, can be extraordinary. And you have to be positioned before they occur.

More recently, breaking it down to individual markets, we saw some of those big days in 2017 in tech (especially semiconductors) … healthcare … defense stocks … banks. And the industry that the rest of the market would like to ignore — cannabis!

And 2018 looks awesome. Not only for cannabis, but for a whole bunch of things I’m going to tell you about today …

Investors see 6 bears growling at the door.
But are they real? Will they bite?

First, let’s deal with what many investors perceive as the “elephant in the room.” That is, the fear that the broader market is overvalued. And along the way, let’s tackle each of the bear arguments that are commonly made.

Bear argument #1: Retail investors are “all-in” and there’s no more money coming into the market.

True, net margin debt in New York Stock Exchange customer accounts hit the highest level in data going back to 2003. And yes, this is typically associated with market tops.

But as I’ll explain in a moment, there’s a lot of new money coming from other sources.

Bear argument #2: U.S. stocks are overvalued compared to foreign markets.

Schroder Investment Management says that the S&P 500 is at its most overbought level in 22 years. And it put out a chart showing the S&P 500 against other global markets. The red means overvalued …

010318 2053 OurOutlookf1

Sure! Absolutely! In fact, this reflects precisely what we have been predicting all along:



Timing & trends

The Next Empire

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Posted by Jeff Thomas - International Man

on Wednesday, 03 January 2018 06:34

bricsThroughout history, political, financial, and military leaders have sought to create empires. Westerners often think of ancient Rome as the first empire. Later, other empires formed for a time. Spain became an empire, courtesy of its Armada, its conquest of the New World, and the gold and silver extracted from the West. Great Britain owned the 19th century but lost its empire due largely to costly wars. The US took over in the 20th century and, like Rome, rose as a republic, with minimal central control, but is now crumbling under its own governmental weight.

Invariably, the last people to understand the collapse of an empire are those who live within it. As a British subject, I remember my younger years, when, even though the British Empire was well and truly over, many of my fellow Brits were still behaving in a pompous manner as though British “superiority” still existed. Not so, today. (You can only pretend for so long.)

But this does suggest that those who live within the present empire—the US—will be the last to truly understand that the game is all but over. Americans seem to be hopeful that the dramatic decline is a temporary setback from which they will rebound.

....continue readiing HERE


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