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Timing & trends

Eerie Calm Shrouds Markets

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Posted by marctomarket.com

on Thursday, 11 May 2017 09:29

calmThe VIX, the volatility  of the S&P 500, is sometimes touted as a "fear index." Today is it extending its push below 10%, to fall to its lowest in nearly a quarter of a century.  
 
There has been four (Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, and France) successive European election that did not produce a victory for the euro-skeptics, who want to leave either the EU or EMU or both.  In Germany, the AfD has imploded and may be lucky to be represented in the Bundestag after the national elections in September.  A few months ago, some were talking about the possibility that Merkel is defeated in her bid for a fourth term as Chancellor.  Merkel and the CDU have done well in the state elections, and will likely do well in this weekend's contest in NRW, the most populous German state.  
 
Three-month implied volatility in the euro, a common benchmark has broken below 7% to trade at its lowest level since late 2014.  The low since at least 1999 was set in 2014 near 4.75% and besides briefly in 2007, it has not traded below 5%.    The fact that volatility has come off suggests participants are less worried about macro-events and in terms of the spot are anticipating range trading.  
 
The risk-reversal (skew in the pricing of puts and calls equidistant from the money, in this case, 25 delta)  has steadily moved to reduce the premium that is paid for euro puts.  In February, the premium for (three months) puts over calls swelled to more than 3%.  This was the most in five years. The premium fell and today stands near  0.25%.   Calls were briefly at a premium last February for the first time since 2009.  


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Timing & trends

Gold: A Tsunami of Selling

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Posted by Streetwise Reports

on Thursday, 11 May 2017 09:05

A chain reaction is forming the last great gold stock buying opportunity of the decade, says Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group.

Gantz5-7-17-2 1.jpg

I want you to take a close, hard look at this chart: 



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Timing & trends

Technically Speaking: Breakout Or Fakeout

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Posted by Lance Roberts - Real Investment Advice

on Tuesday, 09 May 2017 08:17

SP500-3000-Or-1500-050817

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the relatively “weak” breakout of the market to new record highs. To wit:

“Over the last few weeks, I have been discussing the ongoing consolidation process for the S&P 500 from the March highs. (For a review read: “Oversold Bounce Or Return Of The Bull,” and “Return Of The Bull…For Now.”) As the expected rally in stocks, and reversal in bonds, took shape as the S&P 500 was finally able to ratchet a record close at 2399.29. (Read: 10/2016 – “2400 Or Bust”)

SP500-Chart9-050517

 

Larger Chart

“With the market on a short-term ‘buy signal,’ deference should be given to the probability of a further market advance heading into May. With earnings season in full swing, there is a very likely probability that stocks can sustain their bullish bias for now.

The market did do exactly that this past week, and while hitting a new high, as noted above, it was a ‘weak’ breakout as volume contracted.”

The question for the bulls, of course, is whether the current “breakout” is sustainable, or, is it a “fakeout” that reverses back into the previous trading range? As Steve Reitmeister from Zack’s Research suggested on Monday:

“I would say it all depends on investor confidence that tax breaks are on the way.”

It all hangs on just one issue.

......read more HERE



Timing & trends

Shifting World Economies Present Massive Opportunities for Investors

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen - AlgoTrades Systems

on Monday, 08 May 2017 09:13

Recent news from the World Economic Forum (weforum.org) has outlined recent core global economic functions and relationships.  We found this interesting in both factual data and interpreted data and we wanted to present our analysis to you, our valued members.

The factual data presented by the World Economic Forum is clearly showing that China's growth as an emerging, diversified economy is already displacing some other emerging economies (India, Brazil, Italy, France and Canada). When we consider the maturity of these economies as well as their total output (see the infographic below), we begin to understand the mature global economies are likely saddled with more debt as multiple global economic crisis events have transpired since 2000. The graphic below clearly illustrates that many North American and European countries have gone further into debt since the initial Dot Com bubble event took place near the turn of the century (2000).

Gross Debt Ratio 2000 - 2013

picf32bec0fdbc7bdd43aadcdaeaf8ba857

Interestingly, many of the countries that have acquired so much new debt since 2000 are also the worlds largest economies and, therefore, are much more capable of experiencing continued economic growth cycles to address and pay down these debt expansions.



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Timing & trends

The Top 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 06 May 2017 05:46

free1. What Happened To Common Sense

A recent poll says a majority of Canadians don't think Free Trade has benefited Canada. The numbers are compelling, access to 360 million US citizens, 131 million Mexicans in exchange for access to 35 million Canadians!

....read it all HERE

2. Know When To Hold Your Winners

Jesse Livermore, the tenacious trader immortalized in the 1923 investment classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, warned about pundits. He hated tips and claimed following them had lost him hundreds of thousands of dollars.

....read it all HERE

2. Gold Stock Cherry Picking Season

Gold and silver currently have a bit of a fundamentally and technically oriented “hangover”.

....read it all HERE



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