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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Interesting Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 03 December 2016 06:26

5-11. Something Big Is Happening....

   by Michael Campbell

No, Make That Something “Historical” Is Happening

 - The 5000 year bottom in interest rates is in

- The 35 year bull market in bonds is over

- The Brexit vote & Donald Trump’s victory confirm the beginning of a major change in politics

- The Dow Jones has exploded to new highs since Nov 9th

- Gold has broken down 

...read more HERE

2. Is One Of Richard Russell’s Last And Most Shocking Predictions Now Unfolding?

Last year, Richard Russell made one of his last and most shocking predictions ever.  Below is what the Godfather of newsletter writers had to say. (Richard was 91 when he wrote his last article) A must Read in full M/T Ed:

.....read more HERE

3. Marc Faber The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump

Plus - Marc Faber: Current era of negative rates "a historic first"

.....continue reading HERE





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Timing & trends

Cycles - A Fuse, An Explosive And The Igniting Catalyst

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Posted by Gordon T. Long - Macro Analytics

on Friday, 02 December 2016 08:33

Investors need to focus on the two key long term structural changes now underway which are going to ignite destructive global dislocations through early 2020. To better understand why this is going to occur we need to place them in context by first examining the major economic cycles currently underway.

HARRY DENT'S MACROECONOMIC CYCLES & DEMOGRAPHICS

This initial cycle chart is from an in-depth discussion I had with Harry Dent earlier this year. Since leaving Harvard, Harry has spent most of his adult working life  studying demographics and cycles.

An ominous tell tale is that the four cycles he most closely follows are all presently headed down or flat!

10-17-16-MATA-RISK-Harry Dent

Dent attributes this to; the demographics of the baby boom generation, their spending habits as they enter retirement and the overall falling birth rates in the developed economies.

His work suggests the cycles don't reverse until the early '20's.

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S "ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL"

Another well respected cycles analyst is Martin Armstrong who I additionally interviewed to discuss his highly regarded Economic Confidence Model. This cycle is based on a very long cycle of human history and civilization. It currently shows, according to Armstrong (see below), that economic conditions have been deteriorating since 2015.75 (Sept 2015) and will persist through to the beginning of 2020 (2020.05).

....for more on Armstrong, Kondratieff and much more go HERE

...related:

Connecting the Dots

 

 



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Timing & trends

Connecting the Dots

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Posted by Market Anthropology

on Thursday, 01 December 2016 09:29

Despite the enduring enthusiasm in equities since the US presidential election, we continue to follow the proxy pivots in gold that has broadly led the trend in equities by approximately 4 weeks over the past 2 years. Should the relationship persist, we would guesstimate a pivot lower in equities approaches over the coming week. And while the S&P 500 has fully benefited from the unbridled capital outflows from Treasuries and safe haven assets that helped inspire fresh all-time highs across most indexes over the past 2 weeks, emerging market equities remain in lock step with gold’s leading structure that points towards another leg down after the current retracement rally exhausts. 
 
                                                   Click on all Charts For Much Larger Images
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That said, it would not surprise us to see US equities underperform (on a relative performance basis to EEM) on the downside, as we expect similar to last year’s dynamics going into and after the December Fed meeting, another sell-the-news reaction in the dollar manifests. A good leading indication that the dollar rally has run its course would be for gold and silver to find their respective lows over the coming week or so as the equity markets begin to turn down. We indicated below the two previous examples over the past two years of where a similar dynamic had developed. 


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Timing & trends

War Cycles Ramping Up Again …

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Money & Markets

on Wednesday, 30 November 2016 07:43

Screen Shot 2016-11-30 at 6.35.44 AM"the war cycles are increasing in intensity each and every year for the next four to five years. They are going to alter everything you thought you knew about the economy … about the markets … about politics and politicians … foreign affairs and more"

I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend with family and friends. I did!

But now, it’s back to work. It’s back to protecting and growing your wealth. And that’s more important than ever!

The chief reason — and I’ll keep harping on this until I’m blue in the face — is the ramping up of the war cycles. They’ve been ramping up since late 2013.

Now they are already wreaking havoc in Washington. They already caused Britain to Brexit. And now Italy could be next, followed by France. Then Spain. Greece, and more.

They overthrow Hillary here in the U.S. with its anti-establishment undertone, just as I predicted they would.

And the war cycles are increasing in intensity each and every year for the next four to five years. They are going to alter everything you thought you knew about the economy … about the markets … about politics and politicians … foreign affairs and more.

If you are not careful and open-minded, they are going to destroy your wealth.

Let’s get something straight. I am not a pessimist. I am not an “end of the world” type analyst. I am simply a historian, steeped in how governments and markets are cyclical in nature, and how those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.



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Timing & trends

Marc Faber The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump

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Posted by Marc Faber - Gloom Boom & Doom Report

on Tuesday, 29 November 2016 17:21

 

UnknownPlus - Marc Faber: Current era of negative rates "a historic first"

Seeing how the real standard of living took a plunge after the worldwide financial crisis, it is unsurprising that the public has voted for Brexit or elected Donald Trump as President of the United States, investment guru Marc Faber said at the International CEE Investment Conference, organised by CFA Society Poland and CFA Institute last weekend. Faber expressed concern over negative interest rates, admitting he was at a loss as to what could bring the era of negative rates to an end. Another topic on the conference agenda was the growing role of politics in the global economy, and how the proliferation of political ideologies is increasingly becoming a cause for concern even to rating agencies when it comes to upgrading or downgrading a particular country. 
read more @http://www.portfolio.hu/en/economy/marc_faber_current_era_of_negative_rates_a_historic_first.32147.html



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