Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast: A Few Days of Upside Next

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 18 May 2017 22:28

3:00pm Pacific Thursday May 18, 2017

DOW + 56 on 50 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 44 on 400 net advances



STOCKS: The market stabilized today after yesterday's hissy fit and our best estimate is that we have seen a trading bottom.

That's the way the market frequently acts. It gets overbought, investors buy every little dip and it won't go down. Then finally a catalyst or some sort of unexpected news development takes it down hard and then it's already oversold.

GOLD: Gold was down $5. Profit taking with a little help from a rebounding dollar.

CHART The S&P 500 is just bouncing off an oversold 5 Day RSI (arrow). When this happens we normally have a few days on the upside.

Screen Shot 2017-05-18 at 9.55.59 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)


Timing & trends

An Impending Economic And Financial Disaster

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Posted by Dave Kranzler - Investment Research Dynamics

on Monday, 15 May 2017 07:27


You’ve probably heard/read a lot lately about the VIX index. The VIX index is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. The VIX is popularly known as a market “fear” index. The concept underlying the VIX is that it measures the theoretical expected annualized change in the S&P 500 over the next year. It’s measured in percentage terms. A VIX reading of 10 would imply an expectation that the S&P 500 could move up or down 10% or less over the next year with a 68% degree of probability. The calculation for the VIX is complicated but it basically “extracts” the implied volatility from all out of the money current-month and next month put and call options on the SPX.

The graph above plots the S&P 500 (candles) vs. the VIX (blue line) on a monthly basis going back to 2001. As you can see, the last time the VIX trended sideways around the 11 level was from 2005 to early 2007. On Monday (May 8) the VIX traded below 10. The last time it closed below 10 was February 2007. The VIX often functions as a contrarian indicator. As for the predictive value of a low VIX reading, there is a high correlation between an extremely low VIX level and large market declines. However, the VIX does not give us any information about the timing of a big sell-off other than indicate that one will likely (not definitely) occur.

In my opinion, an extremely low VIX level, like the current one, is signaling an eventual sell-off that I believe will be quite extreme.


Timing & trends

A Tale of Two Markets

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Posted by Gary Savage - Smartmoneytracker

on Monday, 15 May 2017 07:08

The next big trending move will occur in the energy markets. All the technical and cyclical signs are in place to suggest a major bottom is forming. In the precious metals market we have the exact opposite setup. This video will clarify how these two markets are likely to behave in the next several months.



Screen Shot 2017-05-15 at 6.43.09 AM


Timing & trends

The Top 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 13 May 2017 06:48

1. Gold: A Tsunami of Selling

A chain reaction is forming the last great gold stock buying opportunity of the decade, says Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group.

....read it all HERE

2. Is Canada The Next Hot Money Victim?

One of the interesting things about the Great Recession was how Canada’s financial system sailed through it largely unscathed. Its banks were regulated wisely and behaved prudently, its citizens avoided the extreme stupidity of their credit-addicted neighbors to the south, and its government refrained from doubling its debt every eight years.

But instead of Americans learning from Canada, Canadians appear to have concluded that we had it right after all.

....read it all HERE

2. The Oracle Speaks … and Here’s What We Learned

Over the weekend, the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting took place, an event sometimes described as the "Woodstock for Capitalists."

This event always generates a lot of press, and this year’s event was no exception. Here are a few of what I think are the most-interesting takeaways from Berkshire meeting.

....read it all HERE

Timing & trends

A Look at the Silver/Gold Ratio, Inflation/Deflation and the Yield Curve

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH

on Friday, 12 May 2017 07:21

An email from a reader (of the eLetter, I think) calling me out on trying to make too many correlations in a dysfunctional market (I think that was his bottom line point, and he’s got a good point) got me thinking about the Silver/Gold ratio and some pretty interesting post-2011 dysfunction (so it seems) in the markets.

Markets that made sense in certain ways prior to 2011 no longer make sense in the same ways. For instance, the S&P 500 used to be correlated to the Silver/Gold ratio, which itself was positively correlated to inflation and/or inflationary economic growth. Gold also liked for silver to be leading it, not the other way around.


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