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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 24 March 2018 07:56

char1. Yet Another Chart That Screams “Look Out!”

Another chart that bolsters Martin Armstrongs case that a Monetary Crisis is Beginning. A monetary crisis will change everything with both banks and debtors facing rapidly rising rates.

 ....continue HERE

2. The Progressive Left Don't Make Sense

by Michael Campbell

The left in Canada helps the US expand Oil production & build pipelines everywhere yet prevents Canada from exporting its Oil through pipelines. Just why are they on the US's side?

....read it all HERE

3.  The Way to Survive Hyperinflation

Martin Armstrong gives advice to a Venezuelan gentleman whose pension payout no longer can buy him a hamburger. A circumstance no longer an impossibility with the pension crisis unfolding as we speak in Canada & the US . 

...read more HERE



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Timing & trends

Mark Leibovit: Trade War Fears Trigger a Definitely Oversold Condition

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Posted by Mark Leibovit - VR Trader

on Friday, 23 March 2018 05:14

Mark expects the market to change directions after yesterdays nearly 3% Stock Market rout that was caused by a brace of factors from tariffs to a potential bond market crash. Using his 35 years of experience and his VOLUME REVERSAL (tm) methodology Mark gives us a thorough analysis of this violent collapse and expected rally - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

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Stocks showed a substantial move to the downside during trading on Thursday, with the major averages adding to the modest losses posted in the previous session. If you didn't know, astrologically Mercury went retrograde and won't go direct until April 15. Google it. Meanwhile, the 'Ides of March' and the Vernal Equinox often signals a change in market direction. The major averages ended the session near their worst levels of the day. The Dow plunged 724.42 points or 2.9 percent to 23,957.89, the Nasdaq tumbled 178.61 points or 2.4 percent to 7,166.68 points or 2.4 percent to 7,166.68 and the S&P 500 plummeted 68.24 points or 2.5 percent to 2,643.69. The sell-off on Wall Street supposedly reflected concerns about the impact of a potential trade war after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on at least $50 billion worth of Chinese imports, an absurdity about such a small amount as compared with the overall trade deficit with China. Instead, our sources say a potential bond crash may be the real reason.

Technically, I had mentioned that the 24,400 to 25,400 range was to be watched and lo and behold we broke it to the downside! Today’s actions completed a 5-wave decline off the highs, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 7200 to 6682, a loss of more than 500 points in a very short period of time. The S&P 500 went from over 2800 to 2642, 158 points. At this point, when you have key support near and short term oversold, with an extreme negative tick near the close of minus 1419 the chances of at least a bounce may be imminent, but we’ll see what happens tomorrow! We are definitely oversold at this point. Looking out a few days/weeks at the SPX, a return to SPX 2533 appears to be the markets objective. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at 2656 and 2731 (See chart below).

Before the newly announced tariffs take effect, the Office of the US Trade Representative will release a list of more than 1,000 possible tariff lines, technical codes that apply to a particular good. There will then be a 30-day comment period during which companies and industry groups can raise objections to certain goods being included in the tariffs. During this time there will also be a public hearing on the tariffs. After the comment period, the USTR will determine which goods the tariffs will apply to and release those findings. So, it could be well into May or June before the tariffs are fully implemented. The restrictions on trade will most likely push up prices on imports of Chinese goods. For businesses that use the imports in their end products, the tariffs will most likely drive up costs and lead to increased prices or cuts in other areas of business.

The House of Representatives approved a $1.3 trillion spending bill to avert a government shutdown and fund federal agencies through Sept. 30. The Republican-led chamber backed the measure 256-167, sending it to the Senate ahead of a midnight Friday deadline. But 90 of the 238 House Republicans voted against it. Coupled with recently enacted tax cuts, the bill is projected to lead to budget deficits of more than $800 billion for this year. Conservatives balked at the deficit spending. Democrats complained that in the rush to pass the bill, few if any lawmakers had time to read through the 2,232-page tome to see what it actually contained. The bill was unveiled late on Wednesday.

Trump is frustrated over trade imbalances and the theft of intellectual property by China. His proposed tariffs aren’t likely to remedy the situation, and could make it worse. China’s Commerce Ministry issued a statement saying, “China will not sit idly to see its legitimate rights damaged and must take all necessary measures to resolutely defend its legitimate rights.” Reports suggest China will impose tariffs on US exports of the major agricultural products sorghum, soybeans, and hogs. More than half of the soybeans and sorghum exported by the US goes to China.

China is a major market for US agricultural products, cars, machinery, and other products. In 2016, China was the third largest market for US exports. Conversely, more than 41% of clothing and 72% of footwear sold in the US are made in China. Analysts believe that not only will US and Chinese businesses and consumers suffer from dampened demand and higher prices of goods, but other countries will experience collateral damage. US-China bilateral trade investment ties are integrated with global supply chains. So, a US-China trade war is necessarily going to have an effect on companies and consumers in other countries. And US-China relations are not good right now. The tariffs could encourage domestic Chinese sentiment to turn against the US. The announcement comes after the passage of a law allowing top US officials to visit Taiwan, a measure that China strongly opposes. Beijing views the self-ruled island as a “rogue province” that belongs to China. Truth is, we don’t know all the implications. We could have an all-out trade war, or the complexity of the global supply chain might limit the fallout. One thing seems highly probable – higher prices for consumer goods. Tariffs are essentially a tax. And while the Trump administration recently passed a tax break, the biggest beneficiaries were corporations. Tariffs will hit consumers squarely in the pocketbook. No surprise that Walmart and Target were each down 1.2% today. Boeing fell more than 5 percent. China has specifically threatened the US. aircraft maker if Trump raised levies. In 2016, the Communist Party newspaper said its Boeing orders, among them a $38 billion package announced when China’s president visited, could be replaced with Europe’s Airbus. Banks and insurers sold off as well. A slump in Treasury yields as investors sought havens weighed on the sector’s earnings prospects. JPMorgan Chase lost 4.2 percent. China’s Global Times — which has links to the ruling Communist Party – this week accused the U.S. of “dumping” soybeans, raising concern that the crop will be among the first items China targets. Currency depreciation could be one channel through which authorities in Beijing aim to increase the competitiveness of their products. The dollar rose 0.5 percent relative to the Chinese offshore yuan. China’s holdings of American bonds, notes and bills have already dipped to a six-month low as of January.

On the U.S. economic front:



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Timing & trends

"Fed Day: Mr. Market Meets Mr. Hyde"

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 20 March 2018 08:50

Fed-Meeting-PreviewTomorrow we will find out what the ongoing US central bank policy will be going forward. What new Fed Chairman Powell decides on Wednesday will be a major driver of Stocks, Bonds and Gold for the forseeable future. This analysis covers both the playbook from the Fed and how each individual market is set to absorb change - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

March 20, 2018

 

1. It’s very important for gold, bond, and stock market investors to stay focused on the main fundamental price drivers and ignore what may feel exciting but is largely irrelevant to price discovery. Citizen demand from China/India and US central bank policy are the main price drivers for gold.

2. From 1960 to 1980, US recessions were generally inflationary, and the Fed raised rates during that period.  Since then, recessions have carried a deflationary theme, and interest rates have fallen.

3. In 2013 I began suggesting that the Fed was going to end its deflationary QE and rate cutting programs.  A new era of rate hikes and quantitative tightening would begin, resulting once again in inflationary US recessions.  

4. I’ll dare to suggest that America is now poised to experience its first inflationary recession in almost three decades. Importantly, this is happening while Chinese and Indian citizen demand for gold is beginning to rise after a multi-year lull.  

5. Ben Bernanke created enormous Main Street deflation with his QE and rate cutting policy.  He incentivized corporations to engage in massive stock buyback programs while the Fed itself used printed money to buy government bonds.  Small bank regulation made it unprofitable to make loans to small business.  Main Street deflated, the labour force participation rate collapsed, and financial assets soared.



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Timing & trends

The Most Popular 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 17 March 2018 07:24

com1. On The Brink of a Terrifying Future

 What is going to happen when 51% of the US millenial generation say they'd rather live in a socialist or communist country? Michael has even more startling numbers, facts & consequences:

 ....continue HERE

2. Interbank Rates Starting to Rise – Monetary Crisis is Beginning

by Martin Armstrong

Martin Armstrong reports that Interest Rates are rising significantly in several important European Markets. With Libor at its highest level since 2008 both banks and debtors face rapidly rising rates

....read it all HERE

3.  How To Protect Yourself from Bubbles & Soon To Be Worthless Currencies

As Voltaire said “Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value — zero.”. Zero interest rates, ballooning 230 Trillion in Global Government debt, there are a lot of dangers and history tells us what we can expect. Even former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warns about the existing bond and stock bubbles

...read more HERE



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Timing & trends

An Incredible Bull Market You’ve Never Heard Of

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Posted by Paul Mampilly - Banyan Hill

on Friday, 16 March 2018 06:10

While there are fortunes being made in art and collectibles by rich investors, this particular powerful bull market is being driven by modestly funded millennials. A quick look at the chart of this developing bull market certainly indicates it has much further to go - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

A Big-Money Bull Market

It’s the market for sneakers. Yes, sneakers.

Google “Air Jordans” and you’ll see a good example of what I mean.

What you’ll find is thousands of websites like SoleCollector.com that are dedicated to tracking shoes, including those that are put out under the Air Jordan brand.

And people are making big money from buying and selling these sneakers.

For example, you could have made 900% on a pair of Air Jordan 2 Retro “Don C” shoes.

Or 426% on a pair of Air Jordan 10 Retro “Double Nickel” shoes.

Sneakers are a new category of collectibles that’s come about in the last 20 years. And prices are skyrocketing for the most collectible ones, like LeBrons.

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No wonder then the business of the companies that make sneakers have been soaring for years now.

The three main companies in the sneaker business are Nike, Adidas and Puma. These are big, global brands that are doing great business, and their stocks are soaring higher too.

Market For Sneakers

Kering (OTC: PPRUY), which is the company that owns Puma, is up 134%, while Adidas AG (OTC: ADDYY) is up 185% and Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is up 71%.

These returns are crushing the S&P 500, which is up just 40% in the same time period.

Market For Sneakers

 

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Now, the reason why sneakers are so hot is because of something I’ve told you about before — the coming of age of the millennial generation.

You see, it’s their buying that’s bidding up the price of Air Jordans and LeBrons … and in turn, it’s that same buying that’s making sneaker company business sales jump, and their stocks rocket higher.

I believe that the sneaker market is going to keep running higher as millennials gorge on their sneaker collections. And that in turn is going to keep revving the stocks of most sneaker companies higher.



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