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Timing & trends

Is Copper Signalling inflation or Higher Stock Market Prices

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Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Thursday, 07 September 2017 06:26

An idealist is one who, on noticing that a rose smells better than a cabbage, concludes that it is also more nourishing.

  1. L. Mencken

Many pundits associate higher copper prices with inflation. While this is true to a degree, that is the wrong metric to focus on. Higher copper prices are usually associated with an improving economy. For the past few years, Copper which is a leading indicator did not trend in sync with the markets. It was marching to a different drum beat, but a new trend could be in the works. 

Copper has traded past a key resistance point ($3.00), and it has managed to close above this important level on a monthly basis. The long term outlook for copper is now bullish and will remain so as long as it does not close below $2.80 on a monthly basis. Copper is facing resistance in the 3.20-3.25 ranges and as it is now trading in the extremely overbought ranges. As copper is now trading in the extremely overbought ranges, it is more likely to let out some steam before trading past this zone. A healthy consolidation should provide copper with the force needed to challenge the $3.20 ranges and trade as high as $3.80 with a possible overshoot to $4.00, provided it does not close below $2.80 on a monthly basis. 

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Now that copper has traded past $3.00 on a monthly basis, the Fed deserves another pat on the back for they have managed to further cement the illusion that this economic recovery is real. Copper is seen as a barometer for economic growth, so pulling off a Houdini is probably going to propel a lot of former naysayers to embrace this economic recovery.

Mass Sentiment is still Negative so Stock Market likely to Correct only



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Timing & trends

Harvey’s Animals and Robot Seals

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Posted by Connecting the Dots - Mauldin Economicsl

on Tuesday, 05 September 2017 06:18

Hurricane Harvey hit Texas hard. Much of Houston, our largest city, will be uninhabitable for months, maybe years.

We had no damage where I live near Austin, but like most Texans, I have friends and relatives in the affected areas. We’re all doing what we can to help them—thanks to everyone pitching in from other states too.

Watching the news coverage, I’ve noticed a common scene.

Many flood victims bring dogs and cats with them on the Cajun Navy’s small boats. I haven’t seen any rescuers object. They seem to think nothing of it and even welcome the animals aboard.

Leave them behind? Inconceivable. Pets are part of the family.

This is another example of an economic trend I wrote about last year. It’s not reversing, and I doubt it ever will.

Image 1a 20170905 CTD
Photo: AP

True Priorities

As I said, Harvey didn’t hit Austin, but I know what it’s like having to evacuate in a rush.

Our area experienced several huge wildfires back in 2011. One got close enough that we could see the flames. As the wind picked up, firefighters told us to “Get out of there right now!”

Given only minutes to grab what possessions you can—and thinking you will probably lose everything else—you learn your true priorities.



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 02 September 2017 08:28

SP500-Trading-Volume-1982-20161. Martin Armstrong: Is the Stock Market Really Overvalued?

   by Martin Armstrong

All we have been hearing since 2011 is how the stock market is going to crash and then there will be hyperinflation and all sorts of strange relationships that never materialize. They simply focus on the level of the stock market in nominal terms without adjusting it for inflation or showing how it has performed relative to the rest of the economy.

...read more HERE

2. Dollar Update as Loss of Reserve Currency Status Looms

 by Clive Maund

The dollar is on course to lose its reserve currency status. This is not something that will happen overnight, it will be a process, but at some point there is likely to be a “sea change” in perception, as the world grasps that this is what is happening, which will trigger a cascade of selling leading to its collapse, whereupon gold and silver will rocket higher. 

....continue HERE

3. Hot Properties: Michael's Real Estate Warning

 by Michael Campbell & Ozzie Jurock

Michael shares a costly mistake he himself made in real estate and gets Ozzie's advice on how everyone can avoid stumbling into the same costly scenario.

....read it all HERE



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Timing & trends

Years Ending in 7 Stocks do this in October…

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen - The Gold & Oil Guy

on Friday, 01 September 2017 06:23

It has been proven repeatedly by various market experts that stock market cycles exist. Whether you believe in them or not that is up to you, but as a technical trader myself I see price action repeat on virtually all time frames from the intraday charts, to daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and beyond.

In fact, cycles tend to move in series of 3’s, 7’s and 10’s, and multiples of these as well. So, 3 bars, 7 bars, 10 bars no matter the time frame, though I find the 10min, daily, weekly, and monthly charts work best.

Knowing these cycles lengths, let’s review briefly where the markets are situated in terms of a seasonality, volatility, and the 3, 7 and 10 cycle periods. What I am about to show you is very intriguing.

I will let the charts do all the talking as they show the picture clearly.

Example of Last 7 Year Stock Market Cycle

7-year-cycle

Potential 10 Year Cycle Top Forming



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Timing & trends

Daily State Of The Markets: If History Is Our Guide, Harvey Will Cause Stocks To...

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Posted by David Moenning - Seeking Alpha

on Thursday, 31 August 2017 06:29

Tolentino-Hurricane-Harvey-Public-Private-Disaster-HoustonSummary

The sample size for major hurricanes hitting the U.S. is relatively small.

We review the five big storms and their impact on the stock market.

The bottom line is...

Word is that Hurricane Harvey will end up being the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history. According to AccuWeather, the estimate for the full cost of the storm will approach $160 billion. To put this number in perspective, Harvey is expected to cost about the same as the combined costs of Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy.

....read more HERE



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