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Timing & trends

The 3 Top Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 07 January 2017 04:07

300px-Global warming ubx.svg 11. Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis

   by Forbes Magazine

It is becoming clear that not only do many scientists dispute the asserted global warming crisis, but these skeptical scientists may indeed form a scientific consensus.

...read more HERE

2. The War On Kids

 by Michael Campbell

"In talking to a group of 19 - 20 year old students over the holiday I was reminded of the alternate ace in the hole for our status quo power groups is the collective ignorance of economics & finance"

....continue HERE

3. 2017 is Looking More Optimistic Than Ever

 by Martin Armstrong

The net capital movements around the world are showing clear signs that things will be intensifying and the net capital movement is headed for the dollar

....continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

Trumponomics Won't Trump the Bond Bust

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Posted by Michael Pento - Pento Portfolio Strategies

on Thursday, 05 January 2017 08:30

TRUMPONOMICSDespite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency. The imperative question investors need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth. And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive?

Let's look at the President Elect's proposals to find an answer.

A top priority of the Trump presidency will be a reduction in the tax rate for the repatriation of foreign earnings on U.S. companies. According to Credit Suisse, the cumulative earnings parked by S&P 500 companies overseas is over $2 trillion.



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Timing & trends

Time to Buy US Treasury Bonds? Gold? Equities?

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Posted by Mike "Mish" Shedlock - Global Economic Trend Analysis

on Monday, 02 January 2017 08:09

As we head into 2017, how should one be positioned? Let’s explore that idea with a trio of contrarian indicators.

US Treasuries?

The one idea most widely agreed upon is that Trump will spur inflation and treasuries are the last place to be.

This headline says it all

Screen Shot 2017-01-02 at 6.54.21 AM

....continue readng HERE.



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Timing & trends

Visual Capitalist's Top Infographics of 2016

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Posted by Visual Capitalist

on Friday, 30 December 2016 08:55

top-infographics-2016

Pop the champagne, because 2016 is soon to be history.

And with that, we are proud to wrap up the year with 16 of the best infographics, charts, and data visualizations that we posted over the course of 2016. Just like in last year’s edition, some of the posts below were handpicked by our staff, while others received notably high amounts of shares, views, and comments from our audience. 

If you’re new to Visual Capitalist, this countdown is one of the best ways to get acquainted with what we do. It rounds up our most powerful and intuitive visuals that help to simplify complex concepts in business, technology, and investing. If you like what you see below, don’t forget to subscribe to our mailing list or connect with us on FacebookTwitter, or LinkedIn to get our free content daily.

Important Notes:

Below, we count down our top infographics of 2016. But first, a few quick notes:

 

  • Images below are previews for a much larger infographic with an accompanying article
  • To view any post in full, click the image or link in the text. All links open in a new tab.

 

Enjoy the roundup, and wishing you the best in 2017!
– The Visual Capitalist Team

....view the Top 16 HERE



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Timing & trends

Refinance debt with 100-year bonds, OR ...

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Money & Markets

on Wednesday, 28 December 2016 08:15

That’s what a lot of analysts and economists are now proposing. Guys like Larry Kudlow, consulting to President-elect Trump, and in line for the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.

Heck, why not? Other countries are now issuing long-term debt. Ireland and Belgium issued 100-year debt. Austria issued 70-year debt. Italy, France, and Spain issued 50-year debt. And Japan pushed out a 40-year maturity and is now considering 50 years.

Mexico, believe it or not, has already issued three 100-year bonds since 2010.

Britain’s U.K. Treasury has issued 40- to 50-year bonds seven times.

Here’s the thinking:

First, the average duration of marketable Treasury bonds held by the public has been roughly five years for a very long time. That’s not likely to change much, even if maturities are extended. Or so they think.

Second, Treasury’s held in public hands have moved up from 32 percent of GDP back in 2008 to 74 percent today. So, despite all our problems, economists basically believe debt isn’t hurting us.

Well, if that’s the case, does that really justify extending maturities and adding on our debt? Are these MBAs and PHDs just brain dead? Have they never traded the markets?

Probably not. They don’t have a clue how debt can destroy a market, a sector, entire industries and even an entire economy.

Third, they claim extending or refinancing debt would somehow save the country hundreds of billions in interest expense.

How so? All it does is kick the can down the road. Meanwhile, interest expense for fiscal 2016 is nearly $250 billion.

And it assumes that the average duration would remain five years and that the debt would not increase above the current 74 percent.

Screen Shot 2016-12-28 at 7.01.05 AMOnce again, the economists assume “no unintended consequences” in their thinking — which is always where things come back to bite them — and us.

And what if rates rise, as they are now doing? That would compound the interest expense repeatedly.

The principal value of those long-dated bonds would crash faster than you can bat an eye, way faster than the crash just experienced in the 30-year Treasury, which lost $108,497 of its value (based on $1,000,000 face value bond) — an astounding 10 percent — in just 26 trading days.

Excuse me, but I think issuing longer-dated Treasuries is …

1. A sign you’re broke.

2. A sign you’re desperate for credit.

3. A sign of great weakness to your foreign trade and credit sources.



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