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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Interesting Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 18 November 2017 07:09

WorldIntRates-20121. Interest Rates will Double

   by Martin Armstrong

The fall of Byzantium resulting in the financial capital of the world moving to India – not Spain. That is why Columbus set sail trying to get to India, which was the financial capital of the world after Byzantium.

...read more HERE

2. RECORDS BEING BROKEN: This Is Exactly The Kind Of Thing The Late, Great Richard Russell Used To Warn His Readers About…

Records Broken At Art & Diamond Auctions! Also MAJOR ALERT: Remarkable Commercial Trading Moves In Silver & Crude Oil!

....continue HERE

3. Real Estate: Canada's 6 Biggest Metros & The Plunge-o-Meter

In October 2017 Toronto metro SFD prices hung on to their recent correction high but after 7 months since the March 2017 spike and peak price, they have lost $206,215 or 17%

Vancouver prices are still defying gravity; FOMO and speculative pricing is still on.

....read it all HERE



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Timing & trends

Living with the Exponential - I

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Posted by George Smith

on Friday, 17 November 2017 06:44

5aee22549377f6552e7da98ad11c2257Before the middle of this century, the growth rates of our technology— which will be indistinguishable from ourselves— will be so steep as to appear essentially vertical. From a strictly mathematical perspective, the growth rates will still be finite but so extreme that the changes they bring about will appear to rupture the fabric of human history. That, at least, will be the perspective of unenhanced biological humanity.

Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, September 26, 2006  


Massive debt is sealing the fate of governments and central banks.   As the cards collapse, radical developments in diverse areas of technology, combined with free market entrepreneurship, will destroy and rebuild the existing social order.

Smith, George Ford. The Fall of Tyranny, the Rise of LibertyJanuary 21, 2017 


My purpose in "Living with the Exponential" series is to get our thinking oriented to the supercharged future that awaits us.  One sample of this future has already arrived when it was reported a month ago that AlphaGo Zero defeated AlphaGo in the game of Go, 100 games to none.  A few months earlier AlphaGo had topped the best human player.  Unlike AlphaGo, AlphaGo Zero taught itself to play Go.

In 2011, IBM's Watson computer defeated the two best Jeopardy! players.  Watson has since gone to medical school to assist doctors in their diagnoses.

Chess programs that run on desktop computers or even smartphonesroutinely beat human grandmasters.

The tech industry has spawned billionaires by selling to the masses.  Tech titans aim to eliminate disease itself, including aging

But the radical future isn't limited to digits, as we're seeing with Brexit and Catalonia.  

The world is changing fast, and it will change much faster in the years ahead.  Let's try to stay on top of it.

Medicine

Gene Editing



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Timing & trends

RECORDS BEING BROKEN: This Is Exactly The Kind Of Thing The Late, Great Richard Russell Used To Warn His Readers About…

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Posted by KingWorldNews

on Wednesday, 15 November 2017 06:41

KWN-VIII-11142017Records Broken At Art & Diamond Auctions!

November 14  – This is exactly the kind of thing that the late, great Richard Russell, the “Godfather” of newsletter writers, used to keep an eye on — records being set at art and diamond auctions.  From Bloomberg in May of this year:

....continue reading HERE

 

...also from KingWorld:

MAJOR ALERT: Remarkable Commercial Trading Moves In Silver & Crude Oil!



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Timing & trends

Sentiment Synopsis

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Posted by Steve Saville - The Speculative Investor

on Tuesday, 14 November 2017 06:14

The Commitments of Traders (COT) reports are nothing other than sentiment indicators, but as far as sentiment indicators go they are among the most useful. In fact, for some markets, including gold, silver, copper and the major currencies, the COT reports are by far the best indicators of sentiment. This is because they reflect how the broad category known as speculators is betting. Sentiment surveys, on the other hand, usually focus on a relatively small sample and are, by definition, based on what people say rather than on what they are doing with their money. That’s why for some markets, including the ones mentioned above, I put far more emphasis on the COT data than on sentiment surveys.

In this post I’m going to summarise the COT situations for four markets with the help of charts from an excellent resource called “Gold Charts ‘R’ Us“. I’ll be zooming in on the net positions of speculators in the futures markets, although useful information can also be gleaned from gross positions and the open interest.

Note that what I refer to as the total speculative net position takes into account the net positions of large speculators (non-commercials) and small traders (the ‘non-reportables’) and is the inverse of the commercial net position. The blue bars in the middle sections of the charts that follow indicate the commercial net position, so the inverse of each of these bars is considered to be the total speculative net position.

Let’s begin with the market that most professional traders and investors either love or hate: gold.

The following weekly chart shows that the total speculative net-long position in Comex gold futures hit an all-time high in July of 2016 (the chart only covers the past three years, but I can assure you that it was an all-time high). In July of last year the stage was therefore set for a sizable multi-month price decline, which unfolded in fits and starts over the reminder of the year. More recently, the relatively small size of the speculative net-long position in early-July of this year paved the way for a tradable rebound in the price, but by early-September the speculative net-long position had again risen to a relatively high level. Not as high as it was in July of 2016, but high enough that it was correct to view sentiment as a headwind.

There has been a roughly $100 pullback in the price from its early-September peak, but notice that there has been a relatively minor reduction in the total speculative net-long position. This suggests that speculators have been stubbornly optimistic in the face of a falling price, which is far from the ideal situation for anyone hoping for a gold rally. A good set-up for a rally would stem from the flushing-out of leveraged speculators.

The current COT situation doesn’t preclude a gold rally, but it suggests that a rally that began immediately would be limited in size to $50-$100 and limited in duration to 1-2 months.

goldCOT 131117

It’s a similar story with silver, in that the price decline of the past two months has been accompanied by almost no reduction in the total speculative net-long position in Comex silver futures. In other words, silver speculators are tenaciously clinging to their bullish positions in the face of price weakness. This suggests a short-term risk/reward that is neutral at best.



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Timing & trends

Gold, Bubbles, S&P 500, and Currency Wars

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Posted by Gary Christensen - The Deviant Investor

on Monday, 13 November 2017 06:02

From John Rubino: “We’ll Look Back At This And Cringe

“Millions of people out there still bear the psychic scars of buying gold at $800/oz in 1980 or a tech stock at 1,000 times earnings in 1999 or a Miami condo for $1,000 per square foot in 2006.

Today’s bubble will leave some similar marks. But where those previous bubbles were narrowly focused on a single asset class, this one is so broad-based that the hangover is likely to be epic in both scope and cumulative embarrassment.”

word-image-2

BUBBLE? WHAT BUBBLE?

WARS: CURRENCIES AND NUCLEAR



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