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Timing & trends

Move over self driving cars - this is even better

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Posted by NY Post

on Sunday, 02 April 2017 12:23

lilium jet city takeoff1Late for work? Imagine skipping the subway and instead heading to your local “vertiport,” where you can hop into an aircraft the size of an SUV that runs on electricity and works pretty much like an elevator.

Get in, punch in your destination, and off you go. Alone.

It may sound like an episode of “The Jetsons,” but electric air taxis are a form of transportation that is coming to Dubai in just a few months. And investors hope American cities aren’t much far behind.

...continue reading in the NY Post



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Timing & trends

A Revisit: The Presidential Cycle

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Posted by The Chapman Report

on Friday, 31 March 2017 07:49

With the failure to even vote on the “repeal and replace Obamacare,” coupled with the ongoing investigations into the White House “Russian” connections we thought it apropos to revisit the Presidential cycle. The Presidential cycle has historically had an impact on the stock markets and the economy. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac (Jeffery A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch) that is published annually, wars, recessions, and bear markets tend to occur in the first half of the four-year term while more prosperous times and bull markets tend to appear in the latter half. According to the Hirschs of the 45 administrations since 1833, the second-half stock market gains have been 729.1% vs. a gain of only 307.1% in the first half. 

One might even argue that the most recent President, despite all the maligning, did quite well beating the odds in the usually weak post-election year and mid-term year but underperforming during the latter two years the pre-election year and the election year. His first two years saw the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) gain 36.5% (2009-2010) and 36.0% (2013-2014). His latter two years produced gains of 13.1% (2011-2012) and 11.2% (2015-2016) respectively. 

Given some signs of trouble early on in his Presidency, will President Trump do as well? His Republican predecessor George W. Bush is one of the few Presidents who actually saw the stock market lower when his term was over in 2008. From 2001 to 2008, the DJI lost 18.6%.  

The cycle is not always perfect. The well-known four-year stock market cycle often sees its low occur during the Presidential cycle although they do not necessarily line up. Given we suspect the last four-year cycle low was seen in August 2015 the next one won’t be due (in theory) until 2018–2020 in the latter half of President Trump’s term of office. The question always is, “when does the top come in.” Tops can skew left, center, or right. In March 2017, the market is already 18 months up in the current bull cycle. 

The following summarizes the stock market action since 1833.

Screen Shot 2017-03-31 at 7.26.24 AM



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Timing & trends

What’s next for the Dollar, Gold & Stocks?

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Posted by Merk's Insights

on Tuesday, 28 March 2017 07:29

Two rate hikes since last year have weakened the dollar. Why is that, and what’s ahead for dollar, currencies & gold? And while we are at it, we’ll chime in on what may be in store for the stock market...

2017-03-17-markets

Stocks...
The chart above shows the S&P 500, the price of gold and the U.S. dollar index since the beginning of 2016. The year 2016 started with a rout in the equity markets which was soon forgotten, allowing the multi-year bull market to continue. After last November’s election we have had the onset of what some refer to as the Trump rally. Volatility in the stock market has come down to what may be historic lows. Of late, many trading days appear to start on a down note, although late day rallies (possibly due to retail money flowing into index funds) are quite common. 

Where do stocks go from here?..

....continue reading about Stocks, Bonds, Currencies & Gold HERE

..also:

Two Trends That Will Force The Fed To Start Buying Stocks



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Timing & trends

The Top 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 25 March 2017 08:06

banks1. How Solid are Canada’s Big Banks?

Maybe Canadian banks are among the world’s best. Maybe the financial system would remain stable if one went under. 

Nevertheless, there is plenty of room for doubt.

....read more HERE


2. Is Silver a Better Value than Gold Right Now?

Most people look at the paper price of silver and if it is falling, they mistakenly believe that physical silver is not a good buy because a falling price means too much supply and not enough demand.

....continue HERE

3. Here’s how to tell when the Trump rally is over

Through last Thursday, the S&P 500 went 102 straight days without a 1% downward move. Just since Trump’s election, the S&P 500 has added $3 trillion of market value. 

And sure, that type of enthusiasm is unsustainable. But unlike in 2000, the stock market is NOT grossly overvalued.

...continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

China To Radically Reprice Gold Higher In 2017 As Demise Of The COMEX & LBMA Accelerates

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Posted by King World News

on Friday, 24 March 2017 07:15

King-World-News-China-Is-Planning-To-Shock-The-World-By-Pushing-The-Price-Of-Gold-Over-10000-864x400 cAs we near the end of the first quarter of trading in 2017, here is a reminder from one of the greats in the business, John Hathaway.

KWN wanted its global readers to review this masterpiece from Hathaway before we kickoff trading in the second quarter of 2017: 

...read it all HERE

 

...also from Kingworld:

A Crisis Is Brewing That Is Truly Terrifying



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