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Timing & trends

Prepare For Bearish News As OPEC Meets Next Week

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Posted by James Hyerczyk via Oilprice.com

on Friday, 13 January 2017 13:02

It’s been an up and down week for crude oil futures with the price action playing out as expected. Going into the new year, we were looking for a choppy, two-sided traded largely because of the uncertainty regarding compliance with the OPEC/Non-OPEC plan to cut production, trim supply and return price stability to the market. 

On the upside, we expected prices to be capped by rising U.S. production, while on the downside, prices were expected to be supported by reports that countries who had agreed to limit production would announce compliance with the plan. Based the price action this week, we can conclude that we’ve seen a little of both. 

Weekly West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil 

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been sideways for the last four weeks. A trade through $56.24 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $44.49 will change the trend to down. 

Given the average weekly range, it’s pretty safe to say the uptrend is safe next week. 

The major 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $50.69 to $54.25. The market is currently straddling this zone and to be specifically, it is straddling the Fibonacci level at $54.25. 

Based on the price action since December 16, the direction of March Crude Oil next week will be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at $54.25. 

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click image for larger view

Bearish Scenario



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Timing & trends

Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

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Posted by John Winston - ActiveTraders.com

on Thursday, 12 January 2017 09:18

My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets.  Many traders use and trade the VIX as a measurement of volatility.  The VIX is a measurement of the expected market volatility over the next 30 days.  As the VIX rises, traders expect larger and more volatile price swings.  As the VIX declines, traders expect smaller and more narrow price swings.

Currently, the VIX is near historical low levels and has recently past a critical cycle midpoint.

stock-reversals1-768x438

One can see from my cycle analysis, I am tracking to cycle events; a longer term top-to-top cycle event and a smaller bottom-to-top cycle event.  I call these dual-phase and single-phase cycle events, respectively.

This analysis tells me we recently past a single-phase bottom cycle (near Nov 30th) and are expecting a dual-phase top cycle event near Feb 17th.  Given the expected opportunity to retest the VIX high channel, the potential price move in the SSO would relate to a 11%~16.5% price swing (approx) – or larger.  The dark blue downward VIX channel is a boundary that we would expect the VIX move to attempt to reach.  It could blow past this level and develop a much larger price correction in the US and Global markets but lets just focus on one target at a time for now.

Now, let’s take a look as how this relates on the SSO chart.



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Timing & trends

A Bullish Play in GDX

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Posted by Rick Ackerman - Rick's Picks

on Wednesday, 11 January 2017 08:05

Upside-potential-in-GDX

Subscribers are long 400 shares from 22.61, stop 22.01, based on a real-time guidance for a ‘mechanical’ entry that was posted to chat room Scoreboard at 11:21 a.m. GDX, an ETF proxy for the gold mining sector, is having trouble getting airborne, but if the buying should catch fire, it has the potential to reach 24.58 (see inset) over the near term. For now, I’d suggest entering an order to sell half the position at p=23.30, the pattern’s ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ resistance. The order should be held o-c-o with a 22.01 stop-loss on the whole position. You should also offer another 100 shares at 24.58 g-t-c. If the order fills, we’d be left with 25% of the original position — or 100 shares, based on the original order. 

Click here for a no-risk, two-week trial subscription.

....related: More short term trading ideas from Victor Adair: Live From The Trading Desk: Long & Short Term Positions Now

 



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Timing & trends

Strength in Weakness

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Posted by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores

on Tuesday, 10 January 2017 06:52

Screen Shot 2016-11-28 at 2.56.07 PM

perspectives commentary

In This Week's Issue:

- Stockscores' Market Minutes Video - Trade the Evidence
- Stockscores Trader Training - Strength in Weakness
- Stock Features of the Week - Stockscores Simple Weekly Canada

Stockscores Market Minutes - Trade the Evidence
Traders can easily take trades for emotional reasons, we have to force ourselves to slow down and look for evidence that the trade is the right one to make. That plus my regular weekly market analysis and the trade of the week on GBX. Click Here to Watch

To get instant updates when I upload a new video, subscribe to the Stockscores YouTube Channel

Trader Training - Strength in Weakness
Simple approaches to any practice usually work the best. Finding the simple solution is not always easy, doing so can take the most experience. This is true in trading too and one simple concept to keep in mind when trading stocks is that there is strength in weakness (and weakness in strength).

What do you do when you are optimistic about a stock? Assuming you invest in stocks at all, you probably buy. When you are pessimistic, there is a good chance you sell.



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Timing & trends

Live From The Trading Desk: Long & Short Term Positions Now

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Posted by Michael Campbell & Victor Adair

on Monday, 09 January 2017 11:32

Victor Adair covers the recent action in Gold, Interest Rates, Crude Oil, CDN Dollar, US Dollar and the very powerful Stock Markets. Also Victor on what he is doing long term to protect all assets.

....related: Agri-Equities and Agri-Food Prices: Both Strong

traders

 



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