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Timing & trends

Watch out: ‘Kids’ are making the most money in this stock market

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Posted by Hulbert Financial Digest via MarketWatch

on Friday, 28 July 2017 06:55

MW-FR231 childr 20170728072207 ZHWhat do they like best? Highflying growth stocks such as Netflix, Facebook and Amazon

We are now officially in a “kids market.” Invest accordingly.

The concept of a “kids market” was introduced by Adam Smith, the pseudonymous author, in his classic book from the late 1960s entitled “The Money Game.” He used that phrase to refer to an investment environment in which the advisers and traders making the most money are those too young to remember the last bear market.

That would certainly appear to be the case today. The 2007-2009 financial crisis and bear market is now more than eight years in the past. Anyone younger than in their mid-30s probably wasn’t even out of college or graduate school during that bear market, and therefore has little or no direct investment experience of a severe bear market. Their attitudes toward downside risk are entirely different from those of us who lived through that crisis, the bursting of the internet bubble, or other bloodbaths of investment history.

These “kids” are often the ones making the most money in stock market right now, handily beating the S&P 500 SPX, -0.27%  

....continue reading HERE

 



Timing & trends

More Commitment of Traders Perspective

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Posted by T. Ferguson - tfmetalsreport.com

on Wednesday, 26 July 2017 07:06

We all saw a lot of commentary and "analysis" over the weekend regarding the latest Commitment of Traders report. Again, these numbers are most important when considered through the lens of historical perspective and that's what we attempt to show you today.

It's going to be a long and busy week. From Fedlines to Durable Goods to GDP...there's a lot going on. And Lord knows what lies ahead politically and geo-politically! Here's just a brief summary:

Screen Shot 2017-07-26 at 7.28.58 AM

The metals have begun the week just slightly to the upside and this is nice. More on this later today and as we go through the week, of course.

However, for today I'd like to simply concentrate on the two charts below. Again, the only real value in analyzing the CoT reports is in being able to reference the current positioning versus historical data and price. For me, the best way to do this is to simply lay some data onto a weekly price chart.

Let's start with Comex Digital Gold. If you listened to last Friday's podcast, then you know that:

  • At 157,094 contracts, the Large Spec GROSS short position is the largest seen since the survey taken July 28, 2015
  • At 153,064 contracts, the Gold Commercial GROSS long position is the largest since December 1, 2015
  • At 73,635 contracts, the Gold Commercial NET short position is the smallest since January 26, 2016

But how does this all appear on the chart? Are these levels historically significant? Please take the time to expand (and perhaps print) this chart. Take a good, long look and decide for yourself.

gold1 15

 

Larger Chart



Read more...

Timing & trends

Retail Apocalypse: Everything You Need to Know

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Posted by Visual Capitalist

on Monday, 24 July 2017 06:22

Chart: Retail Apocalypse 2017

The steady rise of online retail sales should have surprised no one.

Back in 2000, less than 1% of retail sales came from e-commerce. However, online sales have climbed each and every year since then, even through the Great Recession. By 2009, e-commerce made up about 4.0% of total retail sales, and today the latest number we have is 8.3%.

small-chart-e-commerce-retail-sales

Here’s another knowledge bomb: it’s going to keep growing for the foreseeable future. Huge surprise, right?

SIGNS OF A RECKONING

Retailers eye their competition relentlessly, and the sector also has notoriously thin margins. 

The big retailers must have seen the “retail apocalypse” coming. The question is: what did they do about it?

Well, companies like Sears failed the shift to digital altogether – in fact, it is even widely speculated that the former behemoth might file for bankruptcy later this year. 

The majority of other companies, on the other hand, are trying to combine “clicks and bricks” into a cohesive strategy. This sounds good in theory, but for established and sprawling brick and mortar retailers with excessive overhead costs, such tactics may not be enough to ward off this powerful secular trend. Target, for example, has had impressive growth in online sales, but they still only make up just 5% of total sales. As a result, the company’s robustness is also in doubt.

Wal-Mart took another route, which could potentially be the smartest one. The company hedged their bets by buying Jet.com, which was one of the fastest growing online retailers at the time. Later, they followed up by buying an online shoe retailerto help fill a perceived gap in footwear. Recent reports have surfaced, saying that these acquisitions are leading to staff shakeups, as the company re-orients its focus.

After all, going online is not just a tactic to boost sales in the new era of retailing. It has to be a mindset, and one that is central to the company’s strategy. Hopefully Wal-mart gets that, otherwise they will also be in trouble as well.

APOCALYPSE NOW



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Timing & trends

The Top 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 22 July 2017 08:10

canadahousing11. Is Canada in "Serious Trouble"?

One week after we channeled Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok, who two years ago warned that "Canada is in serious trouble", a warning which was especially resonant after last week's rate hike by the Bank of Canada - the first since 2010 -  which we argued threatens to burst Canada's gargantuan housing bubble... 

...read more HERE

 

2, Mortgage Advice in a Rising Rate Environment

Following the first rate hike in Canada in 7 years, Kyle Green joins Michael to share some ideas on how to protect yourself - and some of the unforseen pitfalls of the mortgage world.

....continue HERE

3. Gold's Summer Rally Intensifies

By Morris Hubbartt

Today's videos and charts (double click links to enlarge):

SFS Key Charts & Video Analysi

SF60 Key Charts & Video Analysis

SF Juniors Key Charts & Video Analysis 

SF Trader Time Key Charts & Video Analysis

....read it all HERE



Timing & trends

COT Report Gets Even More Favorable For Gold And Silver

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Monday, 17 July 2017 07:43

Just a quick, happy update on the gold/silver COT reports. See last week’s post for a little more background. 

Speculators are running scared in the paper precious metals markets. And that’s a good thing. 

The past few months’ correction has finally led hedge funds and other technical/momentum traders to shed their long positions and load up on short bets. Meanwhile the Commercials, which tend to be right at big turning points, are becoming much more bullish. 

Historically, the kind of internal structure now evolving in the futures market has signaled the start of a new upswing in prices. That may or may not hold this time around. But if it’s not a screaming buy, it is an indication that that day is getting closer. 

Gold-COT-July-14-2017

Silver-COT-July-14-2017

Here’s the same data in graphical form for silver. Note that speculator net long positions (the gray bars in the top half of the chart) are getting close to zero, which in the past has always resulted in a good few months. 

 

Silver-COT-chart-July-14-2017

via:

DollarCollapse

 



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