Login

Timing & trends

Precious Metals – Silver, Gold, Gold Miner Stocks On The Rise?

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Chris Vermulen - GoldandOilGuy.com

on Friday, 30 March 2012 08:35

The past couple months investors have been focusing on the equities market. And rightly so with stocks running higher and higher. Unfortunately most money managers and hedge funds are under performing or negative for the first quarter simply because of the way prices have advanced. New money has not been able to get involved unless some serious trading rules have been bent/broken (buying into an overbought market and chasing prices higher). This type of market is when aggressive/novice traders make a killing cause they cannot do anything wrong, but 9 times out of 10 that money is given back once the market starts trading sideways or reverses.

While everyone is currently focusing on stocks, its important to research areas of the market which are out of favor. The sector I like at the moment is precious metals. Gold and silver have been under pressure for several months falling out of the spot light which they once held for so long. After reviewing the charts it looks as though gold, silver and gold miner stocks are set to move higher for a few weeks or longer.

Below are the charts of gold and silver charts. Each candle stick is 4 hours allowing us to look back 1-2 months while still being able to see all the intraday price action (pivot highs, pivot lows, volume spikes and price patterns).

The 4 hour chart is one time frame most traders overlook but from my experience I find it to be the best one for spotting day trades, momentum trades and swing trades which pack a powerful and quick punch.

As you can see below with the annotated charts gold, silver and gold miner stocks are setting up for higher prices over the next 2-3 weeks. That being said we may see a couple days of weakness first before they start moving up again.

4 Hour Momentum Chart of Gold:

Gold1

4 Hour Momentum Chart of Silver:

Silver2

Daily Chart of Gold Miner Stocks:

Gold miner stocks have been under performing precious metals for over a year already. Looking at the daily chart we are starting to see signs that gold miner stocks could move up sharply at the trade down at support, oversold and with price/volume action signaling a possible bottom

GoldMiners3

Daily Chart of US Dollar Index:

The US Dollar index has formed a possible large Head & Shoulders pattern meaning the dollar could fall sharply any day. The size of this chart pattern indicates that if the dollar breaks down below its support neckline the we should expect the dollar to fall for 2-3 weeks before finding support.
Keep in mind that a falling dollar typically means higher stock and commodity prices. If this senario plays out then we should see the market top late April which falls inline with the saying “Sell In May and Go Away”.

Dollar3

Precious Metals Conclusion:

Looking forward 2-3 weeks precious metals seem to be setting up for higher prices as we go into earning season and May. Overall the market is close to a top so it could be a bumpy ride as the market works on forming a top in April.

Chris Vermeulen
www.GoldAndOilGuy.com




Banner

Timing & trends

Current Gold & Oil Trading Patterns Unfolding

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Chris Vermulen - GoldandOilGuy.com

on Thursday, 29 March 2012 07:05

The past two months we have seen all the focus from traders and investors be on the equities market. And rightly so and stocks run higher and higher. But there are two commodities that look ready to explode being gold and oil (actually three if you count silver).

Below are the charts of gold futures and crude oil 4 hour charts. Each candle stick is 4 hours allows us to look back 1-2 months while still being able to see all the intraday price action (pivot highs, pivot lows, strong volume spikes and if they were buyers or sellers…).

The 4 hour chart is one time frame most traders overlook but from my experience I find it to be the best one for spotting day trades, momentum trades and swing trades which pack a powerful yes quick punch.

As you can see below with the annotated charts both gold and silver are setting up for higher prices in the next 1-2 weeks from a technical point of view. That being said we may see a couple days of weakness first before they start moving up again.

4 Hour Momentum Charts of Gold & Oil:


GoldAndOilGuy
 

Watch Full Video Analysis:

HERE

 


Banner

Timing & trends

Simply "The World's Most Valuable Asset in a Time of Crisis"

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Porter Stansberry via Stansberry's Investment Advisory

on Wednesday, 28 March 2012 07:00

There's one reliable, common and briliant investment that has proved to be even better than gold or silver in crisis. In fact, since 1970, a year before the U.S. went off the gold standard, this investment has easily outpaced both stocks and gold.

Farmland vs Gold - SP 500

Its certainly reasonable to expect a crisis of the US losing Reserve Currency status and the ability to fund its spending/deficits too,  given its borrowing 40 cents of every dollar it spends & Obama has added more debt than all of the Presidents in history:

Its FARMLAND: Click on either chart or HERE to read the full report

path to prosperity1



Banner

Timing & trends

Doing What Wall Street Doesn’t

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Chris Mayer - The Daily Reckoning

on Tuesday, 27 March 2012 01:20

Last year, I was at a dinner with a bunch of fertilizer analysts from Wall Street and Toronto. To my right was a guy who was really getting on my nerves:

Annoying analyst: We have PotashCorp at overweight. We believe with the structural deficit in potash that —

Me (interrupting): I have a sell on it and dropped coverage.

Annoying analyst: You did what? What did you do that for? Is your firm making a strategic change in direction? You can’t cover fertilizers and drop PotashCorp! (chuckling incredulously.)

Me: I can. I don’t have to cover anything. I cover what I like. When the Street hates the stock, I’ll put it back at buy.

I think the other analysts thought I had six heads. But I do remember one analyst made a point of coming around to me afterward and asking for my card.

Most of the time I just go with the flow. I am an easygoing fellow. But every now and then I like to tweak these clowns. I remember I was at a conference in which about a dozen companies presented. After one company’s presentation, I got tired of hearing all the softball questions and the overly promotional CEO fielding them. Listening to him, you’d think his company were the greatest thing since sliced bread, instead of a flimsy money loser.

So I got in the queue to ask a question. Finally, I got the chance to ask the obvious:

Me: This may seem like a simple question, but I hope to get a serious response... Why doesn’t your company make any money?

CEO: Excellent question!

But sometimes the Street is overly pessimistic. I remember being at a conference in February 2009. There were about 16 companies presenting. The mood was glum. One CEO stood up and said, “It feels like a funeral.” It did. The world was ending. In six weeks, we’d all be eating dog food and howling at the moon. So everyone seemed to think.

At lunch, at about the midway point, I was just trying to make conversation with the analyst next to me:

Me: So you have any favorites you like so far?

Analyst: How about none of them.

I’ll always remember that. Here were some great little industrial companies selling cheaply. And no one was excited. I left that conference determined to recommendFlowserve (NYSE:FLS), which has done very well since. I met the CEO after his presentation, standing alone in the hallway drinking his ice water. I was the only one who came up to him.

A year later, I went to the same conference. The stock had doubled. But the room was full and the CEO wasn’t alone standing in the hallway after giving his talk.

Sometimes I have to hurdle some skepticism from people who are not sure what I’m up to. I remember I called up one CFO of a small company. I told him who I was and what I did and that I was thinking of recommending his stock, but I had some questions first. I remember he said, “Well... How much is this going to cost me?”

Ha! Obviously, he had been approached by others before who wanted some kind of compensation for writing favorably about his stock. The idea that I was truly independent, beholden only to my subscribers, was refreshing and unusual to him.

Anyway, enough of my reminiscences. It is good to rub elbows with the Street now and then. Sometimes you do get some good nuggets...

Recently, I wrote about the big opportunity shaping up in Europe as its banks look to unload assets. I recently listened to Dan Och give a presentation at a Goldman Sachs conference in New York, which had a little more insight into that idea.

Remember, Och is a pretty darn good investor himself. His Och-Ziff Master Fund has returned nearly 10% annually since inception in 1998. And it’s done so with about a third of the volatility of the market as a whole. So Och’s opinions are not like some random CEO popping off about the market.

Let’s get to the presentation...

Asked about the investment landscape in 2012, Och had this to say about Europe:

“We are starting to see certain areas [that] we consider to be asymmetric opportunities. There’s been some substantial dislocation in credit and structured credit in the US and Europe that are very good opportunities for us... Longer term, we see some big opportunities. For example, European banks at some point are likely to start selling substantial amount of assets, and we’re well positioned for that...

“The vast majority of assets that have to be sold have not been sold. If you look at the proposal that was made in late October by the various European authorities that talked about increasing Tier 1 capital on their banks, a big part of how they intend to do that is selling assets...”

“We’ve been in London for 14 years. We have 65 people. We have a distressed credit team. We have a structured credit team. We have a real estate team. We have all of the resources and capabilities. We’ve done an enormous number of transactions there.”

After hearing this, I started to think OZM itself might also wind up being a good play on the “Biggest Fire Sale in History.”

Regards,

Chris Mayer, 
for The Daily Reckoning

images

Joel’s Note: As we mentioned last week, we ain’t never met a mob we wanted to join, nor a trend we wanted to follow. In investment, as in life, it pays to just make like that annoyingly catchy Fleetwood Mac song and just go your own way.

Of course, that’s not always easy. There’s the persistent temptation to feel like a real jackass when you look around and find yourself the only one buying stock ABC, or wearing t-shirt XYZ, or listening to music 123. But if your analysis is good, if your convictions are true, you’ll quite often find the world eventually coming around to your side.

In fact, going his own way has taken Chris Mayer around the world on a seemingly never-ending investment field trip. He’s pounded the pavement in India and China and across South East Asia, South America, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and his travel agent knows where else. The resulting material colors Chris’ next book, due out any week now, titled World Right Side Up: Investing Across Six Continents.

Now that’s due diligence.

If you’d like to take part in our first ever free book launch, simply head to this link for more info.

Also, Chris will be on RT tomorrow around 4:30pm to chat about his World Right Side Up investment perspective tomorrow. Be sure to check it out.

--------------------------------------------------------

Here at The Daily Reckoning, we value your questions and comments. If you would like to send us a few thoughts of your own, please address them to your managing editor at joel@dailyreckoning.com" title="joel@dailyreckoning.com" target="_blank">joel@dailyreckoning.com



Banner

Timing & trends

Critical Issues in Global Economies: Dr. Berry's Presentation to the Federal Reserve

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Dr. Michael Berry Ph.D

on Monday, 26 March 2012 09:15

The research for this presentation was the most difficult in  the past 8 years of giving this 3 hour lecture.  There are some bright lights at the end of the Credit Crisis tunnel but still some real challenges such as consumer spending, deleveraging and housing foreclosures. 

Topics
1. Banks, Reserves and the Economy 2. Interest Rates  3. Energy Impact: Perhaps the Most Important Factor today 4. Jobs: The Four Letter Word 5. BRICS and Emerging World Growth  6. China: To Be Or Not to Be 7. Critical Economic Players: Consumers and Industry •    8. Currencies: The Race to the Bottom •    9. U.S. Housing 10. Deficits, Debt, Deleveraging, and Moral Hazard 11. Commodities and Their Message 12. Impact on Quality of Life in the West and Emerging Markets 13. Europe on the Verge 14. The Entitlement Conundrum

Screen shot 2012-03-26 at 9.14.05 AM



Banner

<< Start < Prev 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 Next > End >> Page 421 of 430

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Our Premium Service:
The Inside Edge on Making Money

Latest Update

Taking Some Healthy Profits

This month, we update three stocks KeyStone has recommended in this column over the past several years. Two we reiterate our BUY recommendations...

- posted by Ryan Irvine

Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Josef Ozzie Jurock Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine