Timing & trends

Grandich: Quick Update

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Posted by Peter Grandich - Grandich.com

on Thursday, 08 November 2012 01:40

As noted earlier, I will use this blog and likely interviews of me to expand on my thoughts on the markets I follow. For now:

U.S. Stock Market – Currently down over 300 points, I believe it shall make up this loss and then some between now and when Bernanke makes a critical speech on November 20th. But remember, from this point going forward to no later than the spring/summer of 2013, America shall be well into an economic, social, political and spiritual crisis unlike anything else in its entire history. And make no mistake about it, the America I and many grew up in disappeared late last night.


Gold – Like I said last night, $2,000 gold is now cheap. Obama may be bad for a lot of reasons but his win has all but assured a new, all-time inflation-adjusted high well within his next term. Down several dollars as I type, I look for it to make up all the losses and move higher later today and/or for the rest of the week.

Special Note – I’m literally sick to my stomach. I’ve made the mistake of engaging whacko’s and ignorant people from the “other” side (it amazes me that they write to me saying how wrong I am yet they continue reading the blog). There will be a post- election depression for some of us so keep in mind raw emotions are the worse conditions to make important decisions from.



....so much more on Grandich.com (3) things....


Timing & trends

Brace for Rising Inflation After Obama Victory

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Posted by MoneyNews - Forrest Jones & David Nelson

on Wednesday, 07 November 2012 09:08

Screen Shot 2012-11-07 at 8.10.45 AM

With the re-election of President Barack Obama, investors need to prepare for inflation that will result from the fiscal and monetary stimulus programs rolled out under the administration's first term, said Ed Butowsky, managing partner at Chapwood Capital Investment Management.

Under the president's first term, fiscal stimulus programs such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the president's Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, ramped up spending and laid the groundwork for higher taxes.

The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, slashed interest rates to near zero and pumped the economy with trillions of dollars in fresh liquidity via a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing, under which the U.S. central bank buys bonds from banks and floods the economy with excess money supply to encourage investing and hiring.

Sooner or later, inflation will follow suit and rock-bottom interest rates will rise, so investors need to prepare today, Butowsky told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.

Read more: Butowsky to Newsmax: Obama Win Means Rising Inflation


Timing & trends

Flash Buy Alert

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Posted by Jack & JR Crooks - Black Swan Capital

on Tuesday, 06 November 2012 12:27

We continue to believe we may have seen a multi-year long-term bottom in the Japanese yen. The catalyst for this view is the fact Japan is now running a deficit in its trade account (see charts next two pages), compared to a consistent surplus going back to the early 1980’s. We suspect this new trade dynamic will make it increasingly difficult for Japan to fund its massive debt profile—up to 240% debt/gdp on some estimates. If so, we believe risk will finally flow into and weaken the yen. It seems to us, most of the repatriation back into Japan has already taken place, triggered by the credit crunch and Tsunami. So, on risk the yen will not receive the haven flow it has in the past.

We suggest you buy ProShares UltraShort Yen (EFT); symbol is YCS at the market. [Last Price = $43.68]

YCS has broken above its daily downtrend line going back to April 2009, and has also recently pierced the 200-day moving average on the upside. 

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 8.49.30 AM

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 8.49.54 AM

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 8.50.05 AM

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 8.50.27 AM

This chart shows the correlation between USD/JPY and the trade account. Historically, weaker trade has coincided with a weakening yen, i.e. USD/JPY moving higher. But since the credit crunch in 2007, the yen has strengthened dramatically (USD/JPY plunged) as the trade account deteriorated dramatically. We think this represented repatriation flow back to Japan. And we think this is likely done! 

Thank you.


Jack and JR 


Timing & trends

The 3 Essential Reasons To Be Bullish Silver

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Posted by David Morgan & Michael Campbell

on Monday, 05 November 2012 10:50

"Things are probably fundamentally stronger for Precious Metals Investment than they've ever been" - David Morgan
Michael asked David to list the 3 Reasons To Be Bullish Silver Long Term. Here they are:
1. "Every paper monetary system in existence has failed.  We are currently at a very unique point in that never in recorded History have we seen a situation like we have now where the entire Globe is dependent on a Fiat Currency".  David Morgan had 599 Fiat currencies in his Historical study, and every single one them was ruined for one reason or another. 
2. "The evidence is that the US Dollar is down 98% from the founding of the Federal Reserve in 1913". Specifically, the 1913 US dollar is now worth about 3 cents. "So the trend is clear and the evidence is clear from History". 
3. "The volatility in all markets spells uncertainty". Whether it be Bonds, Stocks, or  Precious Metals shooting up and then suddenly crashing, "the public is rushing from market to market because people simply don't have any idea long term what is safe and stable. Over time, more and more people are going to run the currency of choice that has lasted thousands and thousands of years, and that is of course Gold & Silver". 
Mike's entire fascinating 21 minute interview with David Morgan below. 


Timing & trends

Insights from a Wall Street Legend

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Posted by Brent Woyat, OceanForest Investment

on Friday, 02 November 2012 11:46

Brent WoyatAs the leaves begin to turn color, we’re now three quarters through a very eventful 2012.
I’m writing to provide perspective on what’s happened this year and to share my thoughts on how to position portfolios for the period ahead. To help do that, I’ve tapped into insights from Barton Biggs, a legendary observer of the investment scene who passed away earlier this year after 40 years in the investment industry. Before we get into his views, here’s a summary of 2012 to date.


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