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Posted by Neil McIver
on Saturday, 24 November 2012 11:18
Posted by Neil McIver
on Saturday, 24 November 2012 11:18
Posted by Various Authors
on Friday, 23 November 2012 08:23
Hopes for an early recovery in the global economy may be overoptimistic, according to CLSA's Russel Napier, as he notes the expansion of China's reserves, which has been an engine of global economic growth, is about to come to a shuddering halt. As eFinancial News notes, Chinese reserves have decelerated dramatically over the last five years and are now close to zero. Napier said of the graph: "It is the most important chart in the world. The growth in Chinese reserves has determined all the key developments in financial markets in the last two decades. It printed lots of currency and artificially depressed the US yield curve. It has been the cornerstone of global growth, and now it's over."
Via eFinancial News:...
The last time the Chinese reserve growth rate was below 10% was at the end of the 1990s, just before the bursting of the technology stock market bubble and a recession. The recovery in the growth rate from 2001 onwards was followed by the economic boom of the last decade. The growth rate turned down decisively in 2007, just before the onset of the financial crisis.
China's reserves have come from a trading surplus, and the Chinese authorities have used the money to buy US Treasury bonds. The finance that China supplied to the US helped fuel economic growth in that country and the rest of the world.
Ed Note: Perhaps that is why Marc Faber has this to say:
Posted by Toby Connor via Peter Grandich
on Thursday, 22 November 2012 03:58
"Today should be the opportunity to get on board what is likely to be a significant rally over the next 3 weeks and probably a move to new highs over the next 2-3 months.
However I think the really big money will be made in mining stocks as gold should rally enough to make it's first test of the all time highs at $1900. It's not unreasonable to think miners will follow and test 640 during this time".
"Typically the stock market will rally fairly aggressively out of one of these major intermediate bottoms, often gaining 6%-8% in the first 15-20 days. At that point the market will dip down into a half cycle low that will establish the trend line for this particular daily cycle"
....4 more charts and commentary HERE
Posted by Cliff Droke Market Analysis
on Wednesday, 21 November 2012 12:59
In this commentary we’ll survey the intermediate-term to longer-term market terrain and Gold Relative Strength. This is especially important since we’re about to enter a new year, which the Kress cycle outlook describes as potentially dangerous from a financial market and economic perspective.
Investors have had no shortage of worries in November, including uncertainty surrounding the presidential race earlier this month, the upcoming “fiscal cliff” on Dec. 31, troubles in the Middle East, and the ongoing euro zone debt crisis. On the European front, Spain has still not asked for the European Central Bank (ECB) to purchase its bonds, while the Euro area finance ministers will not likely to make a final decision to release the Euro 31.5 billion of aid to Greece until Nov. 26.
In a bull market investors tend to ignore worries and focus on the positive news, namely expanding corporate profits. Bull markets on average tend to run about 3-4 years before becoming exhausted. The bull market which began in March 2009 was accompanied by a major recovery in corporate profits, which was part of a feedback loop that propelled equity prices higher in the last 3+ years. Corporate profit momentum is in the process of revering now, which means investors have one less positive to consider when evaluating equities.
From an investor psychology perspective, what does it mean when fear and worry feeds on itself and creates downside momentum? It means we’re entering a bear market, which was fated to happen at some point after the 4-year cycle peaked in October. On an interim basis it was confirmed when the NYSE Composite Index (NYA) decisively broke below its 60-day moving average.
Another indication that conditions have turned bearish on an intermediate-term basis is seen in the series of internal momentum indicators known as HILMO (Hi-Lo Momentum). As the name implies, HILMO is based on the rate of change in the daily 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE. Whenever all the main components of HILMO (short-, intermediate-, and longer-term) are in synch to the downside it shows that conditions have turned decisively bearish.
Of course this negative internal condition can, and most likely will, be reversed on a short-term basis. We’re entering a favorable timeframe for equities seasonally (December-January) and a year-end rally isn’t out of the question. The investor sentiment poll released last Thursday by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed the percentage of their members who are bullish were only 29 percent, while 49 percent were bearish. This net bearish reading is one of the highest in two years and suggests, from a contrarian standpoint, a short-term market bottom.
But what separates a normal, healthy market from the environment we’re now entering on a longer term basis is that the rallies will likely not be sustainable beyond a few weeks. The main trend for 2013, in contrast to the past year, will likely be down. This is especially true with the final “hard down” phase of the 40-year and 60-year Kress cycles upon us in 2013 and 2014.
Our preferred gold ETF, the iShares Gold Trust (IAU), hasn’t yet confirmed a buy signal according to the rules of our trading discipline, but it has begun to show significant relative strength. Consider the following graph which shows the meaningful spike in the gold ETF’s relative strength in just the last few days. In most cases, a spike in the relative strength lineprecedes an upside move in the IAU. Accordingly we should soon have a confirmed immediate-term buy signal for the gold ETF.
About Cliff Droke
Clif Droke is the editor of the 3-times weekly Momentum Strategies Report which covers U.S. equities and forecasts individual stocks, short- and intermediate-term, using unique proprietary analytical methods and securities lending analysis.He is also the author of numerous books, including most recently "Turnaround Trading & Investing." Home of the infamous Durban Roodepoort Deep (DROOY/RGLD/MDG/XAU/HUI) report. Published online every trading day. Aimed at serious day & short-term traders of Durban Deep & followers of the XAU & HUI index. Posted online each evening by 9pm EST. www.clifdroke.com
PO Box 3401 Topsail Beach NC 28445-9831 USA
clif @ clifdroke.com
Posted by Keith Fitz-Gerald - Chief Investment Strategist Money Morning
on Tuesday, 20 November 2012 09:16
Many investors believe that a fiscal cliff "dive" is inevitable.
Even with the prospect of a deal lifting the markets yesterday, I can't say I disagree.
The blame game has already started and it's highly unlikely that we'll see anything other than more foolishness out of Washington. And so far all they have done is kick the can down the road to date.
So what can you do about it? Believe it or not, crises like these can be an ideal time to buy stocks. And gold. And oil. And certain kinds of bonds. And more.
The death of financial markets is almost always highly overrated.
Adding insult to injury, fiscal cliff or not, trying to time the markets is an exceptionally bad idea - 85% of all buy/sell decisions are incorrect, according to Barron's. Further, Dalbar data shows that the return of an average investor trying to time the market is a pathetic 1.9% per year versus the S&P 500 return of 8.4% over the same time period.
Over 20 years, that's the financial equivalent of taking a 342% hit in lost performance.
With that in mind, here's a five-point plan for turning the fiscal cliff into an outstanding opportunity.
1) Get ready to go bargain hunting
With Europe entering another recession and some parts of the world flirting with a protracted slowdown that's going to be more like a managed depression, things couldn't be more uncertain.
While I don't personally like this reality any more than you do, from an investment perspective I'm very happy to pick through the oversold stocks and go bargain hunting.
Because history's rearview mirrors show that fear, panic, crisis and stress are all classic signs associated with opportunity -- and profits.
This is particularly true for choices related to energy, resources and certain kinds of technology - all of which the world needs, as opposed to wants, and all of which are backed by billions of dollars flowing their way whether we go over the fiscal cliff or not.
2) Stress test yourself
Never mind the big banks or Wall Street's hooligans, take a good hard look in the mirror.
Many investors are completely unprepared for the psychological impact of our nation going over the edge. And you don't want to be one of them.
....read the rest of 2, 3, 4 & 5 HERE
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