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Timing & trends

Keep Calm and Carry On

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Posted by Michael Balllanger

on Monday, 05 June 2017 06:27

Ballanger6-2-17-3 1

As I was walking through the shopping district of Kingston-on-Thames yesterday, I was wondering whether the locals had gotten the memo that the country remained on "High Alert" in light of the Manchester bombings. Here I was in the middle of an historic "village," walking across the Clattern Bridge (built in 1293) along with thousands of British shoppers, laughing and joking, sitting in pubs, talking about the rugby matches and generally going about their regular daily business as if nothing had happened. If I could have drawn little "thought balloons" above each and every person I observed, there would be one simple image of a raised middle finger everywhere. It was a wonderful, beautiful thing to witness. 

Keep Calm and Carry On

It should come as no surprise to anyone that knows British history that, as my father used to refer to it, this "little peanut of an island" ruled the world under the British Empire for most of the 19th century, ceding superpower status only after WWII to the U.S. and Russia after ruling the waves from the mid-1700s. It was in 1939 that the British government designed a poster (shown above) intended to prepare the citizenry by "shaping morale" for the imminent arrival of WWII with an increasingly bellicose Germany. While the poster was rarely displayed publicly, it epitomizes the "stiff upper lip" mentality of nation and explains a great deal of the majestic history of the country. Of course, I am talking up my book as all four grandparents were from England and many of my partner's first cousins are showing us around. For someone raised in a country barely 150 years old, to walk through churches built in the 1300s is awe-inspiring to say the least and intimidating at its best.

So as I attempt to make sense of today's markets with rampant interventions and blatant manipulations all designed to "shape morale" and keep the citizenry at once both complacent and behaved, it is as if the global banking cartel, working hand-in-glove with governments, are preparing for a cataclysm of sorts—a financial tempest that will make the "Blitz" of 1940-41 over London pale by comparison. 



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Timing & trends

Silver and NASDAQ Strength Will Reverse

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant InvestorInvestor

on Friday, 02 June 2017 07:08

Bubbles come and go.

Silver and gold – 1980

Japanese Nikkei – 1990

NASDAQ – 2000

Mortgages and Real Estate – 2006

Bonds, Debt, Stocks, Real Estate – 2017

Examine the following graph of monthly data for 32 years of the NASDAQ 100 Index and Silver.

word-image

We saw the NASDAQ bubble in 1999-2000, a rapid rise for silver in 2010 – 2011 and a large rise in the NASDAQ 100 during 2009 – 2017.

Prices for both markets have often risen too far and too fast, and then corrected or crashed. The NASDAQ dropped more than 80% from 2000 to 2002. Silver dropped about 70% from 2011 to late 2015.

The NASDAQ 100 is likely to drop by a large percentage following its current run-up. Stay tuned – no correction yet.

Prices for stocks and silver rise, primarily because of currency devaluations. The two markets often offset each other, which suggests we should look at their sum. Examine 32 years of the NASDAQ 100 plus 175 times silver prices, which gives both markets roughly equal weight.



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Timing & trends

5 Things You Need to Know from Last Week (Look What Gold Just Did!)

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Wednesday, 31 May 2017 07:42

COMM-golden-cross-for-gold

It was a whirlwind week. After attending two big conferences, I landed in Vancouver Friday where I presented at the International Metal Writers Conference. Markets continued to close at record highs, even as political uncertainty remained and the threat of terrorism loomed large over Western nations. Last Monday, gold flashed a bullish signal we haven’t seen in over a year.

There’s much to talk about! Below are five things you need to know from the week now behind us.

1. Quants Now Control Wall Street

A special report by the Wall Street Journal last week confirmed what I’ve been saying for a while: Wall Street is now run by the quantitative analysts, or quants. Numbered are the days when traders and fund managers picked stocks on gut instinct. Today, a decision is made only after whole oceans of data have been processed using sophisticated algorithms.

And yet quants’ role has even further room to expand. As the WSJ reports, quant hedge funds now represent 27 percent of all U.S. stock trades by investors, up from 14 percent in 2013.

To get some idea of the type of analysis quants conduct, take a look at the matrix below. Of course, their methods are far more sophisticated, their data crunched in a matter of nanoseconds, but it’s helpful to see how they might codify many points of data.

Investment analysis decision matrix

We aspire to conduct the same sort of analysis, from technical to tactical, to make better, more strategic investment decisions.

2. Paul Singer Says It’s Time to Build Up Some Dry Powder



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Timing & trends

SWOT Analysis: Deutsche Bank Says Investors Should Prepare for Flight to Gold

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 30 May 2017 06:42

Strengths

 

  • The best-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 4.18 percent. Bloomberg reports that rising automobile demand may be sending palladium futures toward the steepest rally since April 20.
  • Bloomberg’s weekly poll of traders and analysts show the trending heading toward bullishness, with 10 bullish, five bearish and four neutral. Analysts point to concerns over terrorism, probes into President Donald Trump’s links to Russia and doubts that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in June, as factors that may spur investors to choose gold.
  • China’s gold demand in 2017 is still the strongest in four years, reports Bloomberg. Although higher prices have deterred some buyers, dropping gold purchases from 15-month highs, the World Gold Council (WGC) sees demand growing to 900 to 1,000 metric tons for the full year.

 

Weaknesses

 

  • The worst-performing metal for the week was gold, albeit still positive with a gain of 0.91 percent.
  • The biggest gold miner ETF, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, saw record outflows this week. On Wednesday, investors withdrew $662 million from the fund, making it the worst daily outflow since 2006. Similarly, the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF has had outflows of $804 million since March 31, after record inflows last quarter prompted the fund to change its portfolio structure. Bloomberg reports that the fund is now on track for the biggest quarterly outflow since the fund’s inception in 2009.
  • A handful of gold mining stocks are experiencing challenges this week. Tragically, a fatal accident occurred at Torex Gold’s construction site at the El Limon Sur pit in Mexico. The ongoing ban on exports of mineral concentrate from Tanzania could cut Barrick Gold’s gold production by up to 6 percent this year, as Barrick’s equity interest in Acacia accounts for around 10 percent of its gold production. And Freeport-McMoRan has let go about 4,000 workers after a strike at the company’s Indonesian operations.

 

Opportunities

 

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch published a report this week on the company’s global mining conference in Barcelona. BofAML reports that most gold mining companies are in better condition than last year, due in great part to the better corporate discipline, with more focus on value over risk.
  • Deutsche Bank published a special report on the global gold sector, stating “we feel investors should prepare for a flight to gold” in the uncertain global climate. The report also emphasizes the importance of looking for the gold stocks that offer better value, growth or leverage. Deutsche highlights the top global gold stocks as Newmont, Evolution Mining, St. Barbara Mining, Alacer Gold and Dacian Gold.
  • Dacian CEO Rohan Williams told reporters that the recent deal between Eldorado and Integra signals the beginning of a cycle of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). More optimism for gold comes from Trump’s political troubles after Republicans criticized his budget. The gold price has risen, and gold’s open interest, a tally of outstanding contracts, has climbed to the highest since April 27. The chart below shows that the MACD (the gauge of price momentum) is above the “Sig,” or signal line, which is considered a bullish indicator. Yet another bullish indicator is that gold has experienced a golden cross, which happens when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average.

 

5-30fh

Threats



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Timing & trends

Chart of the Day - Just as I Predicted...

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Posted by Gary Savage - Smartmoneytracker

on Monday, 29 May 2017 07:12

I’ll tell you when it’s time to buy miners and it’s not time yet. We need to generate some excessive bearish sentiment first. That will come only at the intermediate cycle bottom. And that’s not due until June.

cotd-183

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/



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