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Timing & trends

A Reversal Coming To U.S. Major Indexes?

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen - The Gold & Oil Guy

on Wednesday, 02 August 2017 06:15

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!

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Timing & trends

A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Tuesday, 01 August 2017 08:08

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, over eight years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes.

Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted series is the pattern of long-term alternations between uptrends and downtrends. Market historians call these "secular" bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum "long period of time" (in contrast to aeternus "eternal" — the type of bull market we fantasize about).

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....continue reading 5 more charts & analysis HERE

 

...also from Jill:

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Timing & trends

Boring Dog Days? Here's Why You Shouldn't Ignore August…

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Posted by Greg Guenthner - The Rude Awakening

on Tuesday, 01 August 2017 06:30

  • An investors worst nightmare?
  • Analyzing the summer doldrums
  • Plus: Time for some trading excitement

October is typically viewed as an investor’s worst nightmare.

Our bias tells us that fall is crash season. Open your history books and you’ll find plenty of horrifying drops ranging from the 1929 crash that sparked the Great Depression (Oct. 28-29) to the infamous Black Monday crash in 1987 (Oct. 19).

Yes, October can be volatile. But the dog days of summer are far worse, on average.

I know this probably goes against all your trading instincts. After all, you’ve heard stories of the painfully boring summer trading months. Cyclically, start of the third quarter isn’t an ideal time to jump into new long-term investments. That’s because July is the beginning of the Nasdaq’s worst four months of the year.

But the market fought its way to new highs last month. A third-quarter slump has been put on hold. 

Perhaps the summer doldrums are waiting for a new trading month. Today is August 1st. Nothing of consequence is supposed to happen in August. The movers and shakers are living it up at their beach estates and trading rooms are quiet, right?

Not exactly. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, August is the worst month for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq since 1987. If there’s one month investors should avoid, it’s not October. August is the real performance killer. 

Here’s an interesting tidbit floating around the financial blogosphere right now:

“August has been the worst month for the SPX over the last 30 years, averaging a -0.86% decline,” MKM Partners technical analyst Jon Krinsky noted in a recent report. “Of course this is just an average, and there have been some strong gains in August especially during strong uptrends (2014, 2009, 2006).”

SPXPermformance-3

Surprised?



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Timing & trends

Precious Metals Stocks Alert: Powerful Upleg Believed Imminent

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Posted by Clive Maund via Streetwise Reports

on Monday, 31 July 2017 06:48

Clive Maund analyzes the significant increase in Large Spec positions in gold and silver in the past week, and the gold stocks to gold ratio.

The significant increase in Large Spec long positions this past week in gold and silver from a very low level might be cause of concern to some, since it of course increases the risk of a reaction in these metals, but there is another much more positive way of looking at it, which is that, in the face of a continued albeit incremental rise in the prices of gold and silver, the Large Specs have suddenly realized their mistake in bailing out over the past couple of months, and are scrambling to get back on board.

On gold’s 1-year chart we can see that it actually made an important breakout last week, from the Dome pattern shown. So far the breakout is marginal, and there is still no confirmation by momentum, which has not broken out of its downtrend, but that is not the case with silver, which as we will see HAS broken out above a similar Dome pattern. Gold is approaching a zone of considerable resistance approaching its April and June highs at the top of the Dome, and once it breaks out above this it should really get moving.

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While there was a considerable increase in Commercial short and Large Spec long positions in gold last week, they are still at modest levels that permit a big rally by gold from here. Certainly they are a long way from being bearish.



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Timing & trends

The Most Popular 3 Articles This Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 29 July 2017 08:17

gold-silver-bars-300x1841. SILVER GREEN ALERT - One of the Best Buying Opportunities in Years...

by Clive Maund

There will be no equivocating, fence sitting or any kind of hedging or expression of doubt in what is written in this update. Let me be absolutely clear: - we are now at the threshold of a barnburner rally in the Precious Metals sector, and silver is set to scream higher driven by a massive short covering panic, because short positions in it have ballooned in recent weeks to levels way above what we saw in December 2015, when silver hit its final bearmarket bottom, before the big sector rally during the 1st half of 2016. 

...read more HERE

2, Our Doom Index Is Heating Up…

   by Bill Bonner

The Dow rose another 100 points yesterday. Can anything stop this bull market?

At least we know the answer to that question: Yes.

When?

Longtime Diary sufferers know better than to trust our market timing advice. So rather than rely on our instincts, the Bonner & Partners research department has developed a Doom Index to guide us.

What is it saying now?

....continue HERE

3. A Victory? Petronas cancels $36B LNG Project

By Michael Campbell

As B.C. jacked up demands Petronas has decided to pull out of a great industrial project with good high paying jobs and tax revenue to fund social programs. The construction phase was supposed to create 4,500 jobs alone. Also what does the recent run up in the Loonie mean for interest rates. Higher? Lower?

 

....read it all HERE



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