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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Interesting Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 04 March 2017 08:42

1. Rate Hikes - Trump - Disappearing Pensions

    by Michael Campbell

Trump may not be liked by 1/2 the US but after his speech to Congress even the press gave him a credit. Rate hikes on the agenda and so are solutions to the iceberg of unfunded pensions.

...read more HERE

crassh2. It’s Crash Awareness Week

    by Bill Bonner

A Los Angeles spec house is on the market. It has seven bedrooms and 20,000 square feet of living space. It comes with a gold Lamborghini Aventador and a gold Rolls-Royce Dawn. You also get a wine cellar, a pool, and the usual claptrap amenities to which rich people are easy prey.

The price? A hundred million dollars.

....continue HERE

3. Gold Stocks’ Enormous Daily Slide

   by Przemyslaw Radomski

Feb 27th was just another period of back-and-forth movement for gold, silver, the USD Index and even the general stock market – but not for precious metals mining stocks. Gold stocks and silver stocks plunged very visibly - there are very important implications of this move and they are not bullish

....continue reading HERE



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Timing & trends

Media Corruption

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Friday, 03 March 2017 08:34

Untitled-33-9Rather than immediately wonder how the main stream media became corrupted, it is appropriate to recall when only the tabloids were suspect.

Perhaps there was a time when any town that was big enough for two newspapers one would favor the Democrats and the other the Republicans. That would be by editorials going into an election. For most of the time, the goal was accurate reporting. That was back when most small towns were right out of a Norman Rockwell painting. On the outskirts of respectability were the tabloids with sensational headlines about UFOs everywhere and Area 51, specifically. A standing joke was what would happen if a real alien landed at the doors of the National Enquirer?

Much has changed since. In 2010, the "Enquirer" was considered as "legit" by the Pulitzer Prize Board and an almost monolithic Main Stream Media has deteriorated into the fantasy world of tabloids.

Sensationally scary headlines were once limited to tabloids. In the early 1970s, headlines about "global cooling" and "Nuclear Winters" began to be included in the main stream media. Over the past twenty years, today's form of yellow journalism has heralded the horrors of "global warming" and biblical rises in sea levels, not to overlook the violence of "climate change".

More hysteria than science, it sells newspapers and gets TV eyeballs, which is business. It also enabled a formidable expansion of state power and wealth, which is control.

How did it happen?



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Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast: Dow Tied For Fastest Rise Ever

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 01 March 2017 17:06

DOW + 301 on 1000 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 79 on 1350 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: Sometimes we're not sure why the stock market does what it does, but this time there is no doubt. President Trump's tone caught many doubters off guard. He was presidential and positive.

Of course, underneath, things haven't changed. Investors continue to be encouraged by promises of lower taxes, less regulation and infrastructure spending.

After struggling for a while with Dow 20,000, the blue chip index spent just 24 sessions going the next 1,000 points, tied for the fastest ever/

GOLD: Gold dropped $4. It was down much more intraday. Less political tension dissuaded buyers.

CHART The volume rose sharply on the QQQ which is the ETF for the NASDAQ 100. This frequently marks some sort of a turn, Usually it's seen at bottoms, but occasionally at tops. We'll need to keep an eye n this short term indicator. We're indebted to our friend Tom McClellan of the McClellan Financial Publications for pointing this out.

Screen Shot 2017-03-01 at 3.47.32 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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Timing & trends

Technically Speaking: The Stealth Rotation

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Posted by Lance Roberts - The Real Investment Report

on Tuesday, 28 February 2017 08:36

Since December, I have been discussing the opportunity that existing in the potential for a rotation from the “risk-on”Trump Rally to the “risk-off” safety trade. I stated that in December we began buying these “risk off” trades based on this expectation and adding bonds, utilities, health care, preferred stocks and REIT’s to our portfolios.

The addition of bonds was also done under the premise that while the majority of analysis was discussing the long-term bottom in rates and the obvious move higher, I have not agreed. This is because “real inflation” remains nascent outside of health care and rent. The recent bump in commodity prices has also been a contributing factor to a small degree but has the negative side of fueling input costs that reduce corporate profitability. The rise in commodity prices, primarily oil, has been driven by a strengthening dollar which was something I discussed would happen in May of 2015.

Interestingly, Jeff Gundlach caught up with my stance last week discussing the “stealth rotation.” To wit:

“Not only is the Trump rally over, but stocks are the last to get the memo. That’s the current market summary according to DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach who told Reuters that ‘there is a stealth flight to safety going on.’

Among key indicators, Gundlach pointed to German Bunds and especially Schatz (2Yr), noting that ‘German bond yields are leading the way down and Gold is rising.’  He also warned that ‘speculators remain massively short bonds and the market is going to squeeze them out.'”

He is absolutely correct, and both of these are points I have made previously.

Trumponomics – The New Hope:

“Here is the most important point to remember. Just two months ago, we were told that U.S. equities should rise because bond yields would be low forever, discount rates should trend toward 0%, and therefore equity valuations should trend toward infinity over time.

Now, we’re told that despite bond yields surging we can still count on U.S. equities trending toward infinity because they’re better positioned to absorb higher rates than emerging markets.

It can’t be both.”

Bund

“The chart below shows the 10-year Treasury rate the German Bund rate. Not surprisingly, since rate spreads directly impact economic activity, trade, and currency flows, whenever spreads widen to such a degree, bad things have tended to happen.”

....continue reading HERE


 



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Timing & trends

Bob Hoye: Radio Free America & Market Analysis

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisorsors

on Monday, 27 February 2017 08:51

Screen Shot 2017-02-27 at 7.29.29 AM

The following was published for our subscribers February 16, 2017.

Perspective

In July, the ChartWorks noted technical excesses in the Bond Future. We concluded that action in the US Treasuries was the least distorted and would be the best market to use to determine a major top. For technical analysis, the European market is too dominated by the ECB.

The peak in Treasuries was in July and we noted that the bull market in lower-grade stuff would likely continue. We also noted that the European government bonds would likely turn with US Treasuries. Which they have.

We are now getting technical excesses in Junk.

The headlines above, are recording the anecdotal aspects of a speculative blow-out in lower-grade bonds. It could be global.

The ECB wager that buying €1.5 trillion in assets would "kick-start" the economy rests upon the unproven notion that an economy can be "kick-started". One might just as well try to kick-start a 747.

This kind of anecdotal record can be followed by panicdotal conditions.

Stock Markets



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