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Timing & trends

Clive Maund: Gold Market Update

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Posted by Clive Maund

on Monday, 29 January 2018 06:20

The key message of this update is that gold is getting closer and closer to breaking out of a giant Head-and-Shoulders base pattern that started to form back in the middle of 2013 and to point out that it won’t be stopped from doing so by any minor short-term reaction, especially as the dollar has just broken down from a giant top pattern and looks set to plummet, notwithstanding any near-term rally to alleviate its oversold condition. 

We’ll start by looking at the latest 8-year chart for gold which shows a fine flat-topped Head-and-Shoulders bottom. We can observe how a large and lengthy Right Shoulder has formed following the mid-2016 peak, that complements the large and lengthy Left Shoulder, making the pattern symmetrical, even if its component parts are a rather messy. We see how the price has risen up in recent months to challenge the resistance at the upper boundary of the pattern, and most importantly these runs at the resistance have been accompanied by a quite dramatic volume buildup, that has now driven both volume indicators to new all-time highs. This action by both volume indicators concurrently is very bullish indeed – it means that gold is destined to break out upside from this pattern into a bullmarket soon, regardless of what efforts the supposed “cartel” with their paper shenanigans make to stop it, and it’s not hard to see why given how much physical has been mopped up in recent years by countries such as China, that understand gold’s true value. Upon breaking above the nearby band of resistance, the 1st target for gold is the quite strong resistance in the $1520 - $1560 area. 

gold8year280118b

On gold’s 6-month chart, however, we can see that it has had a nice run in recent weeks that has resulted in it becoming rather extended, and with sentiment readings now very bullish, we should not be surprised to see a modest pullback that would probably be occasioned by a relief rally in the dollar to alleviate its oversold condition. We can use any such pullback to do additional buying, especially of gold and silver stocks. 



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Timing & trends

The Top 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 27 January 2018 06:41

bwjan18-11. Back to the Norm - Equity vs Real Estate

   by Brent Woyat

At the end of last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a paper* on historical rates of return of major assets. The report also shows that average returns from real estate and equities have been roughly similar, but equity volatility has been twice that of real estate (Figure 1)

....continue HERE

2. Don Vialoux Calls For Sold Out Commodities To Rally

   with Michael Campbell

Featured Guest Don Vialoux on his favorite winter trades. One, commodities, has Don excited because that market sector that is very sold out & rising from a low point

....read it all HERE

3. Buckle Up For a Major Sea Change

   Michael Campbell & Victor Adair

The CRB Index hit its All Time High in 2011 and, relative to the S+P 500 Stock Index it has fallen ~74% in the past 7 years to an 18 year low!

...read more HERE



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Timing & trends

Futures A Sea Of Green Amid Relentless Dollar Disintegration

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Friday, 26 January 2018 06:28

It's deja vu all over again as the dollar resumed its decline against all major peers on Friday amid concerns over U.S. trade policy, after a brief rally that followed Trump’s comment on favoring a stronger dollar, setting the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index heading for its seventh weekly loss. That would be the longest losing streak since 2010.

bbdxy 1.26

....continue reading HERE

...also from ZeroHedge:

Will The 'Buck' Stop Here? The dropping Dollar is trying to hang onto a potentially important line of support.

 



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Timing & trends

Technically Speaking: What Exactly Is “RSI?”

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Posted by Lance Roberts - Real Investment Advice

on Thursday, 25 January 2018 11:51

Ed Note: Markets are driven largely by emotion & Lance Roberts goes over certains indicators that are used to measure that emotion in this excellent article - M/T Ed

I get lots of questions from readers regarding the various technical indicators discussed in our “Technically Speaking” posts and in our weekly Real Investment Reports. While we often discuss the signals these technical signals are indicating, there are often questions involving exactly what these indicators are measuring.

Technical analysis is often dismissed by investors for three reasons:

  1. A lack of understanding of exactly what technical analysis is,
  2. An inability to properly apply technical analysis to portfolio management, and;
  3. The media narrative that “technical analysis” doesn’t work.

There is no “one method” of technical analysis that works for everyone. Every technician uses different methods, indicators, and time-frames for their own analysis. Much depends on your personal investment time frame, risk tolerance and investing behavior.

This article will be the first of several in an attempt to clearly define some of the more common technical indicators we use in our own portfolio management practice and how we apply them.

(Note: we will be providing our specific methods of technical analysis, indicators, etc., in our forthcoming premium section of Real Investment Advice. Click here for pre-subscription information.)

We are going to start our journey with the Relative Strength Index.

What Is RSI

Over the last few weeks, there have been numerous postings about the S&P 500 index and how it has hit a historically high reading on the RSI index. My friend Adam Koos recently posted:

“The first picture below is a weekly chart (or intermediate-term) look at momentum in the S&P 500. Just one week ago, I was posting on social media and explaining that there had only been two times in the last 6-plus decades that the market had been this overbought. Thanks to the second week of January, the market is more overheated today than it has been in more than 67 years!”

Koos-RSI-1

.....go HERE for Larger Charts & More Analysis

 

 

 



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Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast: Advance Decline Line Hits Record High

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Posted by Steve Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Tuesday, 23 January 2018 17:39

Available Mon- Friday after 3:00 pm Pacific.

DOW - 4 on 625 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 52 on 305 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: The Dow was down, but most indices were higher. The NASDAQ was a star, helped by a stellar performance by Netflix and the high techs.

Our job is very simple. We keep raising our stops on trading positions and let this monster take us where it will.

GOLD: Gold jumped $8 to a new rally high. The sagging dollar was a factor.

CHART: We had been concerned about breadth as the averages appeared to be leaving the advance decline line behind. But now it appears that this consolidation is over and breadth has now broken to a new all time high.

As usual, there are concerns. The S&P is very extended and the CBOE put call ratio was very low today. We would not be surprised by a bit of short term weakness, but the chart pattern remains bullish.  

Screen Shot 2018-01-23 at 5.45.46 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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