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Timing & trends

Major Markets at Turning Points

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Friday, 20 January 2017 06:28

Bonds have risen in a 35 year bull market. That bull market looks tired and probably peaked in July of 2016.

The U.S. Dollar Index recently hit 14 year highs. Has the dollar finally peaked? Has it turned downward since January 3, 2017?

Stocks have been rising since the 2009 crash lows. Rounded to the nearest point, the Dow hit 20,000. Was that enough to make a final top before a major turn downward?

Gold made an important low over a year ago but we continually hear chatter about gold falling below $1,000, perhaps to $700 or even $350. I believe it has turned upward and the chatter will dissipate.

Let’s speculate about turning points in these important markets.

T-Bonds:

The global bond market is perhaps $100 trillion. Derivatives tied to interest rates are perhaps another $500 trillion. Yes, these are big numbers and interest rates affect practically everything – student loan debt, consumer spending, sovereign nation borrowing, housing sales, mortgage rates, credit card rates, bank profitability, availability of credit and more.

The global bond market is the largest financial bubble in history. A crash would be important …

Examine this chart of the U.S. T-bond.

F-Bonds-768x538

....for larger charts and analysis of all Major Markets go HERE

...related:

Marc Faber: Take a Gamble on Trump



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Timing & trends

Martin Armstrong: Stock Market Bubble Still to Come

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Posted by Martin Armstrong via Financial Sense

on Wednesday, 18 January 2017 09:27

Well-known market forecaster Martin Armstrong at ArmstrongEconomics.com joins us today to discuss his thoughts on a wide range of topics, including his current forecasts on stocks, bonds, why he doesn’t think the market is in a bubble yet, the attempt by governments to ban cash around the globe, and much, much more.

...also from Martin:

What About Collectibles?

091012 r18913 p646-646-630

 



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Timing & trends

Rally in Gold & Gold Stocks Has More Upside

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Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Tuesday, 17 January 2017 09:09

Gold and Gold stocks have rallied as expected and the consolidation in the miners in recent days looks bullish. GDX and GDXJ have digested the recent recovery quite well as Gold is testing resistance around $1200/oz. While the price action portends to more gains so does the breadth in the miners as well as short-term structure in the US$ index and bond yields.

In the first chart we plot GDX along with its advance decline (AD) line at the top. The AD line is the holy grail of breadth indicators as it is a trusty leading indicator. At the January 2016 bottom, the AD line was showing a strong positive divergence. Presently, the AD line is trading at a 3.5 month high and above its October 2016 high. If GDX were trading at the same relative level then it would be about 17% higher. Moreover, the AD line only retraced 38% of its 2016 advance while GDX retraced 62% of its advance. This suggests continued strength in the gold stocks.

Jan162017GDXADline

GDX Advance/Decline Line



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Timing & trends

Donald Trump vs. Big Government Will he win? How can YOU win?

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Posted by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. - MoneyandMarkets.com

on Monday, 16 January 2017 07:53

martinwIf you think Mr. Trump is just blowing smoke when he rails against Washington’s bloated bureaucracy, you’d better sit down and brace yourself for a series of shocks …

Shock #1. The federal government’s complete failure to pass its audit: Just four days ago, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released its full audit report covering fiscal year 2016 … and it’s a disaster:

The U.S. government failed the audit on about 34% of its assets. 

This is crazy. When you run a public company, if your books are so botched up that your auditors refuse to give you a clean bill of health, it’s the kiss of death. But for the federal government, it’s routine; Uncle Sam has failed his audit in every single one of the past 20 years.

Here’s what’s new: Mr. Trump is the first president since Ronald Reagan with an explicit agenda to disrupt the status quo. Will that include a reorg that cleans up the mess? That remains to be seen. But if ever there was a president who has explicitly expressed the intent to tolerate some disruption for the sake of long-overdue fixes, Trump is it.



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 14 January 2017 09:03

1. Gold’s fate as Western society cracks apart …

   by Larry Edelson

Right now, gold is still caught in a trading range, but with a long-term bias toward exploding higher over the next few years to at least $5,000 an ounce.

...read more HERE

2. Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

 by John Winston

My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets. 

....continue HERE

3. The 27 most important finance books ever written

"In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none," Charlie Munger, the vice chairman at Berkshire Hathaway, once said.

With that in mind, we've highlighted 27 classic works that every Wall Streeter should read.

....continue reading HERE



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