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Timing & trends

Far Bigger and Stronger ...

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Uncommon Wisdom

on Monday, 12 November 2012 09:32

Well, we have the results of the elections in. As everybody knows by now: Four more years of President Obama.

Not that it matters really at all. The free markets and this coming sovereign-debt crisis to the United States is far-more-powerful than any one particular president, than any government, than any central bank, as I’ve told you many times.

The outcome of the sovereign-debt crisis and the trends that are in motion in the markets will not change no matter what President Obama and Congress does.

Right now the focus has turned to the fiscal cliff. I do believe that the fiscal cliff will be resolved. The can will be kicked down the road, probably at the eleventh hour on December 30 or something like that. But I do believe that Washington will kick the can down the road.

Let’s go right to the markets, starting with gold:

Interestingly, gold was unable as you can see to penetrate that $1,800 resistance area that I told you was very strong. It has since taken quite a sharp nosedive — down to some technical support at the $1,680, $1,670 level — (and) bounced back up to $1,700.

We should soon see another leg down that pierces this rising uptrend line here and brings gold down substantially. First to roughly the $1,640 level, where we have some minor technical support. Then to the $1,526 low down here. And then much-lower than that, probably below $1,400. That is still very much in the cards.

image1

Silver: Let’s now focus our attention on this weekly chart of silver.

Silver largely did the same thing — it was unable to take out the $35, $36 level and then it turned sharply lower down to about the $32, $31.70 level.

I do expect a little sideways action, but I also expect this rising uptrend line here, in the lower part of this channel, to soon give way. And then silver could plummet quite hard with the first support level at the prior four tests of the $26 level.

Then, once that gives way the fourth way through — the fourth time through either support or resistance is usually the most violent — we should probably see silver move down to the low-$20s.

I continue to recommend very strongly that you stay away from silver on the long side.

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U.S. Dollar: Here is the weekly chart.

The Dollar Index is still starting to climb gradually, but it’s finding support and we’re starting to see a pretty decent rally here. That is because, as Europe continues to worsen, most money in Europe is going to cash … and into dollars.

Also, the fiscal cliff is not going to be bearish for the dollar, because (at) the slightest signs that the U.S. economy is slowing or taxes are going up, we are going to see the so-called “risk off” trade and liquidation in the United States as well … which will help give underlying tone to the U.S. dollar.

image3

The Dow Industrials: Here is the weekly chart.

The Dow, as I’ve been telling you, was going to have a very difficult time at that 13,613 level. And indeed, the day after the elections, we saw quite a sharp nosedive in the Dow.

The Dow Industrials now are going to succumb to worries about the fiscal cliff, to anticipated fourth-quarter earnings that will come in weaker than the third quarter, and (to) overall uncertainty and anxiety about the market.

We should see a move down to at least 12,600 in the next few days. Once that level gives way we’ll probably move lower, 11,500 by year-end is not out of the question.

image4

So please stay tuned to everything I publish.

Have a good week!

Larry

 

Larry Edelson has over 34 years of investing experience with a focus in the precious metals and natural resources markets. His Real Wealth Report (a monthly publication) and Power Portfolio provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management.

For more information on Real Wealth Report, click here.
For more information on Power Portfolio, click here.

 



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Timing & trends

Bob Hoye: Signal's

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Thursday, 08 November 2012 19:28

INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2012

BOB HOYE

PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS

The following is part of Pivotal Events that was

published for our subscribers November 2, 2012.

"MORE NEGATIVE SIGNALS"

SIGNS OF THE TIMES

"Chinese industrial company profits dropped 6.2 percent in August from a year ago, the largest decline this year and the fifth straight monthly deceleration." – Bloomberg, October 22

"Bernanke: You can't fire me – I'm going to quit in 2014" – Business Insider, October 23

Weird thinking – but, can that be made retroactive? To around now!

"It's bad luck to kill wizards." – Arnold Schwarzenegger, in Conan The Barbarian (1982)

"Rural Savings Threatened After Collapse" – Sydney Morning Herald, October 25

The article was about a non-bank lender that had been paying high interest on debentures and lending it out as mortgages or commercial property loans.

"Ford will shut three European plants, its first factory closings in the region in a decade." – Bloomberg, October 25

*   *   *   *   *

CREDIT MARKETS

Ross noted in September that trends in money market stuff run "forever".  That's the instruments with maturities of less than a year. Specifically, the Ted-Spread continues to narrow. At 0.581 as the mini-panic ended in late 2011, the spread-ratio has narrowed to 0.203 this week – clocking 19.4 on the Weekly RSI.

The chart begins in early 2008 and the previous most extreme was 23 in 2009.  The trend change, and it is uncertain when it starts, will reflect a profound change in the main creditmarkets.

Within the Ted is the 3-month Libor and its Weekly RSI is down to 6.6. It was as low as 8 with the reversal in March 2008. The jump that began in that fateful September marked that disappearance of liquidity in the London Interbank Offered Rate. That was a shock to the current generation in the money markets, as well as in central banking.

Can this reverse?

Yes!

When?

????

What would be the mechanism?

The ability of governments to run increasingly reckless policy through their central banks has always depended upon the gullibility of the general public. Also prevalent has been the assumption of unlimited funding through confiscatory tax collections and unlimited abilities to issue credit/currency.

Obviously, taxpayer complacency is ending. Most taxpayers have had to tighten their belts and have been attempting to force thrift upon their extravagant governments. The more immediate effect has been upon local governments. State or provincial governments are one-step more remote, but will eventually be forced to be accountable.

In so many words, the "makers" have had it with the "takers".

The paramount evil has been the federal level with not just the prerogative of issue, but increasingly evident lately, the ability to buy endless amounts of bonds out of the market.

Historically, practically and morally this has been absurd and will be overwhelmed by political and market forces.

The drive to today's outbreak of bureaucratic despotism began around 1900 and where traditional means of US finance were limited by the constitution, the Federal Reserve System subverted this on the way to providing virtually unlimited finance.

As late as the mid-1960s the latter was considered impossible, but lately it has been widely accepted and widely discounted as "printing money". The latest belief-surge maxed out on September 14th and a significant decline seems to have started.

This would mainly involve stocks and commodities and it is doubtful that even the most desperate of central bankers would be willing to add these to their buying mania. Stocksand commodities don't have a maturity date.

Some may ask about the distress we expected "this fall" in most bond markets. In June-July the bond future soared up to a magnificent high that triggered our technical models. A significant price decline was possible.  Maybe twenty points but the ten-point slump finished the move and stability is easing the overbought condition.

Similar strong overboughts were sequentially registered on corporates (LQD) and emerging debt (EMB). There are two ways of getting rid of an outstanding overbought condition. The one we prefer is the straight down; the other is a period of consolidation. The latter has prevailed and perhaps the continuous and big bid by central bankers is helping.

The long bond has been rallying with the setbacks in stocks and commodities. There is nothing new to this, and it could continue over the next number of weeks.

Treasury bill rates are at "Depression" lows but corporate bond yields are not at "Depression" highs. This "divergence" can't last forever.

CURRENCIES

China's announcement of massive stimulus prompted a review of their currency system, which used to have holes in each coin. Today's coins no longer feature these, but their monetary theories are full of holes.

To be serious, the Dollar Index traded down to 79.1 on Wednesday, which level was support from early October. Today's jump marks that as a successful test of the low and reaching 80.5 marks the break above 80.25 resistance.

Tuesday's ChartWorks pointed out that with the break out the initial move could be to the 82 to 83 level. After consolidating the gain, the next target is around 90.

This could be considered as an involuntary trend towards "sound money", that would be your basic central banker's worst nightmare.

In time, this trend and widening popularity of "sound money" could fill the holes in Western monetary theories.

Link to November 3rd ‘Bob and Phil Show’ on TalkDigitalNetwork.com:

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2012/11/this-week-in-money-56/

BOB HOYE,   INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS 

E-MAIL  bhoye.institutionaladvisors@telus.net

WEBSITE:   www.institutionaladvisors.com

Signal Clip Art

                                                                                                   



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Timing & trends

Grandich: Quick Update

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Posted by Peter Grandich - Grandich.com

on Thursday, 08 November 2012 01:40

As noted earlier, I will use this blog and likely interviews of me to expand on my thoughts on the markets I follow. For now:

U.S. Stock Market – Currently down over 300 points, I believe it shall make up this loss and then some between now and when Bernanke makes a critical speech on November 20th. But remember, from this point going forward to no later than the spring/summer of 2013, America shall be well into an economic, social, political and spiritual crisis unlike anything else in its entire history. And make no mistake about it, the America I and many grew up in disappeared late last night.

sc

Gold – Like I said last night, $2,000 gold is now cheap. Obama may be bad for a lot of reasons but his win has all but assured a new, all-time inflation-adjusted high well within his next term. Down several dollars as I type, I look for it to make up all the losses and move higher later today and/or for the rest of the week.

Special Note – I’m literally sick to my stomach. I’ve made the mistake of engaging whacko’s and ignorant people from the “other” side (it amazes me that they write to me saying how wrong I am yet they continue reading the blog). There will be a post- election depression for some of us so keep in mind raw emotions are the worse conditions to make important decisions from.

sc-1

 

....so much more on Grandich.com (3) things....



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Timing & trends

Brace for Rising Inflation After Obama Victory

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Posted by MoneyNews - Forrest Jones & David Nelson

on Wednesday, 07 November 2012 09:08

Screen Shot 2012-11-07 at 8.10.45 AM

With the re-election of President Barack Obama, investors need to prepare for inflation that will result from the fiscal and monetary stimulus programs rolled out under the administration's first term, said Ed Butowsky, managing partner at Chapwood Capital Investment Management.

Under the president's first term, fiscal stimulus programs such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the president's Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, ramped up spending and laid the groundwork for higher taxes.

The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, slashed interest rates to near zero and pumped the economy with trillions of dollars in fresh liquidity via a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing, under which the U.S. central bank buys bonds from banks and floods the economy with excess money supply to encourage investing and hiring.

Sooner or later, inflation will follow suit and rock-bottom interest rates will rise, so investors need to prepare today, Butowsky told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.

Read more: Butowsky to Newsmax: Obama Win Means Rising Inflation



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Timing & trends

Flash Buy Alert

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Posted by Jack & JR Crooks - Black Swan Capital

on Tuesday, 06 November 2012 12:27

We continue to believe we may have seen a multi-year long-term bottom in the Japanese yen. The catalyst for this view is the fact Japan is now running a deficit in its trade account (see charts next two pages), compared to a consistent surplus going back to the early 1980’s. We suspect this new trade dynamic will make it increasingly difficult for Japan to fund its massive debt profile—up to 240% debt/gdp on some estimates. If so, we believe risk will finally flow into and weaken the yen. It seems to us, most of the repatriation back into Japan has already taken place, triggered by the credit crunch and Tsunami. So, on risk the yen will not receive the haven flow it has in the past.

We suggest you buy ProShares UltraShort Yen (EFT); symbol is YCS at the market. [Last Price = $43.68]

YCS has broken above its daily downtrend line going back to April 2009, and has also recently pierced the 200-day moving average on the upside. 

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 8.49.30 AM

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 8.49.54 AM

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 8.50.05 AM

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 8.50.27 AM

This chart shows the correlation between USD/JPY and the trade account. Historically, weaker trade has coincided with a weakening yen, i.e. USD/JPY moving higher. But since the credit crunch in 2007, the yen has strengthened dramatically (USD/JPY plunged) as the trade account deteriorated dramatically. We think this represented repatriation flow back to Japan. And we think this is likely done! 

Thank you.

Regards,

Jack and JR 



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