Well, we have the results of the elections in. As everybody knows by now: Four more years of President Obama.
Not that it matters really at all. The free markets and this coming sovereign-debt crisis to the United States is far-more-powerful than any one particular president, than any government, than any central bank, as I’ve told you many times.
The outcome of the sovereign-debt crisis and the trends that are in motion in the markets will not change no matter what President Obama and Congress does.
Right now the focus has turned to the fiscal cliff. I do believe that the fiscal cliff will be resolved. The can will be kicked down the road, probably at the eleventh hour on December 30 or something like that. But I do believe that Washington will kick the can down the road.
Let’s go right to the markets, starting with gold:
Interestingly, gold was unable as you can see to penetrate that $1,800 resistance area that I told you was very strong. It has since taken quite a sharp nosedive — down to some technical support at the $1,680, $1,670 level — (and) bounced back up to $1,700.
We should soon see another leg down that pierces this rising uptrend line here and brings gold down substantially. First to roughly the $1,640 level, where we have some minor technical support. Then to the $1,526 low down here. And then much-lower than that, probably below $1,400. That is still very much in the cards.
Silver: Let’s now focus our attention on this weekly chart of silver.
Silver largely did the same thing — it was unable to take out the $35, $36 level and then it turned sharply lower down to about the $32, $31.70 level.
I do expect a little sideways action, but I also expect this rising uptrend line here, in the lower part of this channel, to soon give way. And then silver could plummet quite hard with the first support level at the prior four tests of the $26 level.
Then, once that gives way the fourth way through — the fourth time through either support or resistance is usually the most violent — we should probably see silver move down to the low-$20s.
I continue to recommend very strongly that you stay away from silver on the long side.
U.S. Dollar: Here is the weekly chart.
The Dollar Index is still starting to climb gradually, but it’s finding support and we’re starting to see a pretty decent rally here. That is because, as Europe continues to worsen, most money in Europe is going to cash … and into dollars.
Also, the fiscal cliff is not going to be bearish for the dollar, because (at) the slightest signs that the U.S. economy is slowing or taxes are going up, we are going to see the so-called “risk off” trade and liquidation in the United States as well … which will help give underlying tone to the U.S. dollar.
The Dow Industrials: Here is the weekly chart.
The Dow, as I’ve been telling you, was going to have a very difficult time at that 13,613 level. And indeed, the day after the elections, we saw quite a sharp nosedive in the Dow.
The Dow Industrials now are going to succumb to worries about the fiscal cliff, to anticipated fourth-quarter earnings that will come in weaker than the third quarter, and (to) overall uncertainty and anxiety about the market.
We should see a move down to at least 12,600 in the next few days. Once that level gives way we’ll probably move lower, 11,500 by year-end is not out of the question.
So please stay tuned to everything I publish.
Have a good week!
Larry Edelson has over 34 years of investing experience with a focus in the precious metals and natural resources markets. His Real Wealth Report (a monthly publication) and Power Portfolio provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management.