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Timing & trends

Don't Worry be Happy vs "I smell bear meat upcoming"

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Posted by Peter Grandich - Grandich.com

on Thursday, 18 October 2012 00:00

U.S. Stock Market – I’ve often said it’s not so much what you do but what you avoid doing in the market that ends up separating the winners from the losers. I believe you would sooner find a needle in a haystack than a bullish U.S. stock market commentator within the hard asset community (where I ply myself) or among the investors who are fond for metals and mining shares. I know because many of them have questioned why I haven’t bet against the market for almost five years and have said for much of 2012 it would come as no surprise that the market made a new, marginal all-time high.

Barring something unforeseen and/or a Middle East conflict far worse than most anticipate, I continue to believe the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street shall pull out all the stops (and say whatever is necessary) to achieve this goal. But such a feat is not going to be the beginning of something much bigger IMHO but just the conclusion of the greatest bear market rally in the secular bear market of all time (that began in November 2007). It’s my personal goal to be very liquid by this time next year (and that may include lightning up on all equities).

It’s just a gentle reminder for now but as 2013 takes hold is likely to become a warning (which means don’t send me emails about selling anytime soon).

U.S. Bonds – I continue to hope the “happy” people on Wall Street can get the 10-year T-Bond down to 1.25% but time is not on their side. I continue to believe U.S. bonds shall end up the worse investment for the next decade and hope to get a chance to get aggressively short them before the house of cards comes tumbling down.

dollar

U.S. Dollar – A very bearish technical signal has been trigger in the daily charts of the U.S. Dollar Index. A “Death Cross” (when the 50-Day M.A. crosses the 200-Day M.A.) has occurred (Point A) and it looks like the Index wants to test critical support around 78. Stay tuned.

Gold and Silver – I think it’s pretty clear where I stand here. One note of interest was the report of a large delivery request of silver made last week to J.P. Morgan and the difficulty to make good on the whole delivery. We saw the typical bear raid around this and I smell bear meat upcoming.

Oil and Natural Gas – I remain bullish on oil and anticipate a seasonal bounce in natural gas.

Interesting article on Zinc that notes two Grandich clients Donner Metals and Sunridge Gold as possible takeover targets.  Please note Donner’s new website



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Timing & trends

Alert: Fiscal Cliff Looming

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Posted by Michael Campbell & Dr. Michael Berry, Ph.D.

on Wednesday, 17 October 2012 16:08

Michael Campbell: I'm looking at the overall US financial situation and I think you have to call me pretty darn bearish there, I am not innumerate so it's pretty easy to add up the numbers. Obviously a lot of focus on the US election, but regardless of who wins isn't this going to dominate their presidency? 
 
 
Dr. Michael Berry: I think it matters little in the short run whether the Republicans gain the Senate and the Presidency or whether President Obama is re-elected. There really are really serious problems fiscally in the US right now and they are going to go through a process here of some kind of austerity in the near term whether its excess taxation or just pulling back on spending. Either one is going to be fairly austere and it won't matter who wins in the short term, in the  longer-term it will matter because I think the Obama administration is much more social in nature than a potential Romney administration. 
 
Michael: We hear a lot about the so-called fiscal cliff which would have automatic cuts to spending and automatic changes to taxation especially on the investment front. I read a lot of convicting stories about whether thats serious in the way that they actually will find a way of overcoming it. What's your view on that?
 
Dr. Berry:  I am pessimistic on them finding a way Michael. At this stage of the game we are within 65 days or so of these cuts and tax increases automatically going in. It's very clear that Democrats want to tax the population and very clear the Republicans do not. I can't see any way they're going to come to an agreement so I think there's at least a 50-50 chance that we will go over the fiscal cliff. If we do, I think it'll have a tremendous impact on all the world capital markets. 
 
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Michael: I'm wondering if it would entail a dramatic increase in capital gains and in dividend taxation. I'm wondering if investors wouldn't want to sell those positions right now and see how it all works out. 
 
Dr. Berry:  I think thats exactly right, you're right on there. Investors down here in the US are definitely now in a mood that as every day passes and every second ticks by that this isn't going to be solved. So I'm seeing some weakness in stocks that shouldn't be weak here. I'm seeing some selling, I'm seeing some deals that are being mandated to be done before the end of the year to avoid this problem of increased taxation. Certainly capital gains taxes will go up in any event but if they go up January 1st it will have a really serious impact on the Stock Market.  
 
Michael: The other big question I see as I start translating this environment we are in into stock investments, is this tug-of-war between inflationary forces and deflationary forces. I know that's an oversimplification but could you give us some guidance where you think that's at?
 
Dr. Berry: It's probably the single most prominent event in the economy now in the US and probably around the world. I've been writing on it and you still see this deflation. You would not have seen the Fed come out with the very significant QE3 proposal of $40 billion a month, in the mortgage market primarily, if they were not scared to death of the deflationary situation. 
 
So where is it going to come out? Clearly as the Fed blows up its balance sheet by printing money here, which they are going to do now, you are going to see other countries do the same in a race to the bottom in currency. It's currently already happening and we've seen a nice move up in gold and silver and even copper. Friday they came off quite a bit, but the Brazilian's are printing, the American's are printing, you are seeing it around the world right now so there is this strong tendency to inflate. So far they really haven't done much asset inflation so I think that its still up in the air whether they're able to do it.
 
But you wouldn't have seen Bernanke go ahead and talk about such a massive QE3 program and put it into operation without a serious concern for deflation.
 
Michael: One of the other interesting aspects is there was so much focus right through the summer months about whether they would do a Quantitative Easing 3. Which is just another way of say the Central Banks would pump liquidity into the system by in quotes "printing more money". We saw the talk, especially by the European Central Bank in late July, China did something, Japan's done something, the US now is taking action. Is it one of those things that now that they've shot their bullets is there anything left in the gun. If it doesn't take hold the way there hoping, what they do for an encore?
 
Dr. Berry: They are pushing a string, its the old Keynesian liquidity trap problem that I think they're getting into now. Monetary policy will not solve structural or fiscal problems and so Congress and the US Government are going to have to act. 
 
I think there is a serious problem as the balance sheets of the Central Banks blow up. By the way we do know that Central Banks are buying gold, buying a lot of Gold now, more so than even last year.
 
As these balance sheets blow up and increase in size, once inflation starts to run and I'm talking about asset inflation in the real estate market,  they are going to have to drain so quickly to avoid very high rates of inflation. I think that's what the capital markets or the commodity markets are betting on right now. I think we are seeing that in the commodity markets. 
 
Michael:  Can you give us a further comment on Gold?
 
Dr. Berry: We are buyers of Gold, but Gold Stocks have not followed Gold for whatever set of reasons in this marketplace. We are very bullish on Silver, we are very bullish on Gold. You should have at least 10% of your portfolio either in Bullion, Coins, or in Gold stocks if you're in the Stock Market - as a hedge against the potential for very serious inflation. 
 
It is very clear that things are very expensive now, its clear that in some parts of the economy there is inflation. There are inflationary forces and Gold and Silver and some other commodities are stores of value, becoming more and more stores of value against this process. 
 
Michael: One of the areas that you were a pioneer in bringing to the publics attention through Discovery Capital and your Morning Notes are the Rare Earths. The Rare Earths have taken a bit of a beating in this downturn, can you give us an update?
 
Dr. Berry: I think that Rare Earths were a novelty. Just like graphite and lithium were novelty things because they're all about electrification and the new technologies that are coming.
 
So you know we had hundreds of Rare Earth companies and we also have the Chinese who control that market which is a key issue. Now we're seeing some companies in Québec (one HERE), there may be companies in both Canada and the US that have significant potential to supply these heavy Rare Earths and light Rare Earths. 
 
So I think its time now to do real due diligence. We are not going to get a move up in all of the Rare Earth companies now, we are going to get a move up selectively in those companies that are well managed, have heavy Rare Earths and are relatively closer to production. 
 
Michael: It's going to be an interesting time. Last question, is there some event that you're keeping more top of mind?
 
Dr. Berry: It's very clear the election is over overwhelming everything down here now. 
 
This last unemployment report was not 7.8% as claimed. We are seeing a little bit of a lift in in in the marketplace because the people think that the employment rate is down.
 
Once the election is over then we are going to see whats left of the pie. A pie has $16 trillion of debt sitting on top of it and that has to be solved. So there is definitely going to be cuts in both entitlements and increases in taxes and I think that is going to have a pretty heavy effect on the economy here for the next several years.
 
Michael: Dr. Michael Berry who writes a terrific Morning Notes for Discovery Capital. I really appreciate you finding time for us today.


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Timing & trends

Pullback to US$1,700 'Would See Significant Support'

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Posted by Adrian Ash: BullionVault

on Wednesday, 17 October 2012 10:14

Wholesale bullion prices to buy gold recovered an early dip in London on Wednesday morning, rising back to $1,750 per ounce as European stock markets also rose and the single currency hit its best level in more than a month. 

The rising euro knocked the price for French, German and Italian investors to buy gold back to a 6-week low of €1,333 per ounce (€42,860 per kilo). 

That's some 4% below Euro-gold's new all-time high of Oct. 1. 

"I have been speaking to a number of GOLD DEALERS this week," says Swiss refinery and finance group MKS's senior trader in Sydney Alex Thorndike, "and the majority still feel there will be significant support on any extended pullback towards $1,675-1,700. 

"Most, myself included, think long-term macro investment buying and possibly even central bank demand would be seen at these levels, as well as a resurgence in physical interest from India – especially if the rupee remains strong." 

Commodities were broadly flat meantime on Wednesday, but so-called "safe haven" government bond prices ticked lower as Spanish debt rose on expectations of a formal bail-out request. 

The Moodys rating agency last night confirmed Spain's ranking above "junk" status. 

Madrid's 10-year bond yields today eased to their lowest spread above comparable German debt in 6 months. 

"Gold and the precious complex have been held afloat overnight and this morning by a stronger euro," says UBS strategist Edel Tully in a note. 

"Gold's ability to stay buoyed today will be dependent on foreign exchange moves and risk appetite." 

Silver prices today extended to 1.8% their rally from Monday's 6-week low for Dollar investors, recovering the $33 mark as the London Silver Fix approached at midday. 

The first drop in solar-panel silver demand for 12 years will likely dent 2013's average silver priceby more than 4%, according to New York-based consultancy the CPM Group. 

"China's near-term appetite for gold appears to be waning as bullion imports from Hong Kong slow," write analysts at London market-maker HSBC in a note. 

Shipments of gold bullion to China from Hong Kong – the major route for imports to buy gold – slipped nearly 30% in August from July, according to latest data from the Census & Statistics Department. 

"What we are hearing from our customers is that they were buying gold rapidly over the last couple of years," MarketWatch quotes Scotia Mocatta's managing director in Hong Kong, Sunil Kashyap, today. "But they would now see some of their stocks sold off before they rebuild their inventories." 

In base metals, "China destocking [in iron] has run its course," says Bloomberg this morning, quoting mining giant BHP Billiton's CEO Marius Kloppers, who believes that stocks of iron ore have now been depleted to provide a "base level" of demand. 

But with China responsible for 40% of global money-supply growth since 2007, "and money-supply growth in the developed world still flat on its back, a slowdown in China augurs for lower inflation – perhaps deflation – and higher real rates," says strategist Russell Napier at CLSA, Asia's largest independent brokerage. 

Higher returns to cash and bonds, after allowing for inflation, would likely dent prices to buy gold, Napier tells MarketWatch. 

"Nominal rates [are already] close to zero," he says. So sub-zero inflation would be "bad for gold." 

Over on the supply side Wednesday, South African miner Gold Fields said its ultimatum to striking workers at the Beatrix project – threatening summary dismissal – today saw 6,200 illegal strikers return to work. 

With up to 50% of South Africa's gold output now closed by wildcat action, Harmony Gold said overnight it may still implement a failed wage offer made jointly with Gold Fields and AngloGold – the world's fifth and fourth largest gold mining companies respectively. 

World No.2 gold producer Newmont today reported a 6% drop in third-quarter earnings, with a record $77 million bill for maintenance and restructuring at its operations. 

Looking to buy gold or physical silver bullion today...?

 

About the Author

Adrian Ash runs the research desk at BullionVault. Formerly head of editorial at Fleet Street Publications – London's top publisher of financial advice for private investors – he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and is now a regular contributor to a number of investment websites.Adrian Ash



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Timing & trends

On Guard: Cycles Show 6-12 Weeks of Either Trouble or Opportunity

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Posted by Chris Vermulen - GoldandOilGuy.com

on Tuesday, 16 October 2012 08:00

Stock Market Trend & Cycles Show 6-12 Weeks of Weakness, plus US Dollar, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Gold Miners, Silver and Bonds all carefully reviewed.

Click anywhere on Chart to or HERE to start the review:

CVScreenShot



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Timing & trends

Long, short or out on the sidelines?

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Uncommon Wisdom

on Monday, 15 October 2012 07:18

These markets continue to frustrate the heck out of just about every kind of investor out there — whether you’re a buy-and-hold investor, an active trader, or even a day trader, or a scalper of the markets.

The markets continue to coil up in very, very tight trading ranges. It’s like watching paint dry. A lot of this has to do with the hesitation by investors to make any moves considering the still-ongoing crisis in Europe and now, very importantly, the upcoming elections, which are about two and a half weeks away.

Unfortunately, we may have to contend with this very sideways action for a couple more weeks. It’s lasted longer than I expected and it may last yet a little bit longer until we get the elections out of the way.

However, all of my economic models and my trading models do indicate that there have been no major trends changes at this point in time.

Now let’s go right to charts.

Gold: This is a weekly gold chart that I showed you in my last video update. As you can see, gold is still pressing up against channel resistance here, but it’s largely gone nowhere for the last three weeks.

The trading range in gold is tightening up — it’s roughly defined now by support at $1,750 and resistance at $1,805 and $1,823. And until we see a breakout above resistance or below support, there’s really nothing to do in gold and I urge you to stay away from it because you’ll just get chopped up.

image1

Silver: Largely the same thing as gold. Silver has been going mainly sideways for the last week or so. It is still beneath overhead resistance but it is also still below the previous high back in February/March of this year and the previous high back in 2011, and, of course, its record high back at $50.

This overall is a bearish indication to me and I do believe silver is running out of steam like gold and we will soon see a turn to the downside.

image2

The U.S. Dollar: The dollar is really tightening up in a very coiling type of range here.

This is a weekly chart of the dollar. It’s still holding support at this uptrend line here, but largely going sideways.

And that’s true of virtually all of the major currencies. They have really been going nowhere but sideways over the last couple of weeks, indeed the last month or so.

I’ve looked extensively at the cycles for the dollar over the last few days and they all point higher, which is why I remain bullish on the dollar.

Screen Shot 2012-10-15 at 7.22.25 AM

Dow Industrials: The chart of the Dow Industrials looks very much like gold — actually pushing up against upper channel resistance here but largely going sideways.

I’m afraid here, too, until we get the elections out of the way, we’re not going to see any decisive moves.

image4-4

In short, I’ve said this before, there are three kinds of positions in the market: You can be long the market, you can be short a market or you can be on the sidelines. I strongly feel that right now is the time to be on the sidelines.

While it’s certainly not as exciting as being in a market, sideline-type of affairs where you’re sitting out the market waiting for high profit potential/low risk trades is often the best place to be. It not only preserves your capital, but it can also generate a return on your capital because you’re not taking unnecessary risks.

That’s it for today. Please stay tuned to everything. I’m sure we’re going to see some major progress and trending moves occur in all the markets soon — if not right before the election, certainly right after it.

 

Larry Edelson has over 34 years of investing experience with a focus in the precious metals and natural resources markets. His Real Wealth Report (a monthly publication) and Power Portfolio provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management.

For more information on Real Wealth Report, click here.
For more information on Power Portfolio, click here.



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