GOLD- ACTION ALERT - BULL
Gold rallied yesterday as the Dollar fell. Gold rose 8.00 to 1611.60. But, why do I get the feeling that the rug can be pulled out from under us at almost at anytime? If you've been following the circus at the CFTC and Bart Chilton's pilgrimage to get to the bottom of what appears to be blatant manipulation of the silver market (as well as gold), you know traders are watching very carefully. Chilton said yesterday (despite the weekend story from London's Financial Times that the CFTC was going to drop the investigation) "I continue to believe, consistent with my previous statements and information from the public, that there have been devious efforts related to moving the price of silver. There have also been silver and gold market anomalies outside of the silver investigation window that have raised, and continue to raise, market concerns." As you know, there is a strong inference that the manipulation is being done at the bequest of the U.S. Government and JP Morgan is simply a 'broker' taking orders. I cannot imagine the U.S. Government being exposed here simply because they would argue it can't happen due to 'national security issues' and the whole matter would simply be hushed up. Though silver could rally on the anticipation of a positive outcome (the government is exposed), more than likely silver bulls will be disappointed and the market could nosedive to new lows instead.
Though seasonal studies and my own Annual Forecast Model along with current bearish sentiment (especially in the gold mining shares) suggest we should remain overall optimistic (forgetting the risk of a Fall shakeout). It's like building a mental bomb shelter you never use. If you believe as I do that we cannot discount the viciousness of our adversaries, Bernanke and Geithner could attempt to drive gold toward 1300 using the 'phony' paper market at the COMEX/CME in order to discredit gold as a viable alternative to progressively worthless Dollars. With gold suppression schemes underway for decades (gata.org has the documented proof, if you care to read it), nothing is really new here. It appears 1520 on the low end and 1635-1650 on the upper define near-term trigger points for the bears and the bulls. In silver 26.00 has been surprisingly holding, while the upside breakout would have to be over 31.00-32.00 in my opinion.
Should we see a waterfall decline in either gold or silver, we have to be prepared to back the truck up for a huge buying opportunity. The availability of physical metal, however, at severely discounted 'phony' prices engineered in the paper market may be a big problem. Do you think physical holders of gold and silver are going to sell for worthless paper currency at bargain basement prices? Good luck. You might get a few coins, but don't hold your breath.
Recall, gold hit an all-time record high of 1922.20 on September 6, 2011, but fell to a 6-month low of 1521.80 on December 29. These are the two important benchmarks that traders and investors are focusing on at this time. Gold stocks are a special opportunity because by certain valuation metrics, they are cheaper than their 2008 lows and are as cheap as they have ever been. The 12-year bull is going to continue, driven by central bank purchases, currency destruction, movement away from the U.S. Dollar as the world's Reserve Currency and the general momentum of a bull market.
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