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Timing & trends

Crude's landslide

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Posted by Phil Flynn - The Resource Investor

on Thursday, 09 March 2017 15:19

Screen Shot 2017-03-09 at 2.07.01 PM

They took the oil and took it down, a stunning build and it turned straight down! When you count the barrels and the oil drilled, a landside brought it down!

A massive crude oil build rocked the oil market in what could be a major downside breakdown that is raising the stakes for OPEC and U.S. shale producers. Will it be cut back or face prices falling even further? Call it a landside if you will, as record long positions in oil ran for their lives and analysts like me are scratching their head to try to figure out how they did not see this historic and record breaking increase in weekly crude oil supply. 

....read more HERE



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Timing & trends

Totalitarianism 101

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Posted by /Bob Hoye -

on Thursday, 09 March 2017 08:37

The following published for our subscribers March 2, 2017.

 

Screen Shot 2017-03-09 at 7.13.25 AM

Perspective

What a range of headlines!

The first one about "informing" is right out of Totalitarianism 101, common to both international or national socialism. The one about banks pulling back from lending to condo developers reminds of Mises’ view on a contraction. At the top, the banks don’t have to call the loans, they just become nervous and stop making them. Then there would be the reversals in the credit markets.

Mom and Pop are in the stock market and Kudlow is writing about "Rosy Scenarios".

The question is not about can it get any better?

It is about how long can it stay wonderful?


Stock Markets



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Timing & trends

Why the Cycle Is Turning Up for Emerging Markets

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Posted by Mike Burnick via Money and Markets

on Wednesday, 08 March 2017 06:51

With Larry Edelson’s passing last week, I lost both a friend and a mentor. I met Larry my very first day at Weiss back in 2002. He was already a larger-than-life personality, but always took time out to mentor us with his unique view of the markets.

Larry taught me a great deal about markets and investing over the next fifteen years; about taking the long view to identify the big, macro trends. An avid student of history and the cyclical nature of markets, he taught me the value of evaluating markets from a historical perspective.

There’s really nothing new in financial markets that hasn’t happened before. While history may not repeat exactly, it does rhyme.

In fact, the recurring, cyclical nature of financial markets is a perfect reflection of its participants; millions of individual investors collectively making value judgments every single day.

Markets are much more than numbers, Larry would say, markets are people… it’s all about people.

Indeed, successful investing is mostly about studying human behavior … hope and fear, greed and envy … the emotions that make up market sentiment.

Take commodities. There is no better example of the cyclical nature of markets.


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Timing & trends

Technically Speaking: Beware The Ides Of March

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Posted by Lance Roberts - The Real Investment Report

on Tuesday, 07 March 2017 08:00

The month of March typically marks the beginning of Spring. This weekend will also mark the loss of an hour of sleep as we set our clocks forward an hour in observance of daylight savings time.

As we will discuss momentarily, the month of March begins following an unseasonably warm winter period that allowed for manufacturing activity to occur during a period where inclement weather normally abounds. This is an interesting point because two years ago, the BEA adjusted the “seasonal adjustment”factors to compensate for the cold winter weather over the previous couple of years which had suppressed first quarter economic growth rates. (The irony here is that they adjusted adjustments for cold weather that generally occurs during winter.) However, the problem with “tinkering” with the numbers comes when you have an exceptionally warm winter. The new adjustment factors, which boosted Q1 economic growth during the last two years now creates a large over-estimation of activity during the first quarter of a year where winter weather is unseasonably warm.

This anomaly has boosted “bullish hope” as the fear of an economic slowdown has been postponed. At least temporarily until the over-estimations are revised away over the course of the coming months. Of course, with the spread between “hope” and “reality” currently at some of the highest levels ever, it is worth paying attention to what happens.

EOCI-Cycle-Anomaly-030617

.....read more HERE



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Timing & trends

The Second Dumbest Kind Of Money Is Pouring Into Stocks — “With A Vengeance”

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Monday, 06 March 2017 08:20

e02ada983955ea1679abc64c24615e2b880One of the traditional signs of market tops is individual investors finally succumbing to the lure of apparently easy money and pouring their savings into the stock market. In the past this dumb money flowed into equity mutual funds in general. But today it’s favoring exchange traded funds (ETFs) that, rather than trying to pick winners, simply offer exposure to sectors or broad market indexes. 

ETFs Race to Fastest Yearly Start Ever Based on Inflows

(Wall Street Journal) – Investors poured $62.9 billion into exchange-traded funds in February, pushing the year-to-date world-wide tally to $124 billion, the fastest start of any year in the history of the ETF industry, according to data from BlackRock Inc.

U.S. ETFs accounted for $44 billion of that, pushing assets in U.S. funds to almost $2.8 trillion.

Most of the money went to cheap, index-tracking ETFs, a sign that the price war in ETFs isn’t over yet. BlackRock’s iShares ETFs were the biggest winner, and its low-cost Core series garnered the bulk of the $38 billion global haul.
“All of the money is going into the cheapest and most boring ETFs. This is the retail investor getting back into the market with a vengeance,” said Dave Nadig, chief executive of ETF.com, an industry website owned by Bats Global Markets, newly a subsidiary of CBOE Holdings Inc.

The Rise of the ‘Do-Nothing’ Investor
Passive mutual funds are growing rapidly, pushing aside stock pickers and changing the investment world. Click here to read more about The Wall Street Journal series. 

The fastest-growing ETF so far this year is the iShares Core Emerging Markets ETF, which took in $4.2 billion in the first two months of the year, 18% of its assets, according to FactSet. Three other Core ETFs that invest in U.S. stocks were also among the top gainers last month.

Why is this a sign of a market top? Because small investors tend to trade on emotion rather than logic or expertise.



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