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Timing & trends

Critical Short-Term Silver Price Trend: Put into Perspective

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Wednesday, 12 April 2017 07:15

The current silver price trend is once again at a critical juncture.  It has been four years since the price of silver crossed an important trend line.  However, the present setup will result in either another correction lower, or a much higher price.

This is a ten-year chart which shows the current trading setup for silver:

10-YEAR-SILVER-CHART-JUNCTION-POINT

The blue line represents the 50 month moving average,and the red line, the 200 month moving average.  Since the price of silver fell below the blue line at the beginning of 2013, its support has been the red line.  It did not fall below the red line at its low in the beginning of 2016 and has bounced twice off the blue line, which is now acting as resistance by traders.

Currently, the silver price is hitting up against the 200 month moving average blue resistance line.  If the silver price breaks above and closes above it, we could see a much higher silver price.  However, if does not, then we could experience another short-term correction.

Looking at the current silver COT REPORT, there is a record commercial short position against silver.  The Commercial short positions are from the large bullion banks:



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Timing & trends

Enjoy The Stock Market Rally While It Lasts

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Posted by Brooke Thackray - The Thackray Newsletter

on Tuesday, 11 April 2017 15:18

The stock markets have enjoyed a “Trump bump.” Despite a recent “Trump fade,” North American stock markets are positive for the year and economic numbers have been fairly solid. Stock market volatility is low and recently the S&P 500® experienced a 110-day run without a 1% correction. Ev- erything just feels good. Enjoy it while it lasts.

It is not that there are ominous clouds on the horizon. There is nothing out there pointing to a sudden correction, but that does not mean that the stock market cannot correct. It can correct at any time. When everything seems just right, it is the surprises that can re-direct the stock market downwards. A healthy stock market tends to absorb the negative surprises well, with only a minor correction before heading higher once again. Or even, interpreting a typically negative event, with a positive spin. This is the type of market that we have been experiencing. 

S&P 500 Technical Status

The S&P 500 is currently in a consolidation pattern with a “high” set at the beginning of March. Although the S&P 500 has had a series of lower highs, we have not established a pattern of lower lows. This pattern is neither bullish nor bearish, but it does show that the S&P 500 is looking to establish direction. A solid break above 2400 would show

that the stock market is decidedly bullish. A break below 2325 would be bearish.

Unfortunately, we are only weeks away from the period when the stock market often starts to fade as it enters into the six-month unfavorable period at the beginning of May. From a seasonal point of view, there is not a lot of time and the stock market may provide some muted gains, but the risk remains to the downside. Positive reaction from investors to strong earnings may provide some support to the market, but investors should start to become cautious at this point. 

Screen Shot 2017-04-11 at 2.56.11 PM

....continue reading pages 2-6 & all other markets HERE



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Timing & trends

Stockscores Weekly Perspectives: Bat and Balls - AMX - MDSO

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Posted by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores

on Tuesday, 11 April 2017 06:37

Screen Shot 2017-02-28 at 6.55.40 AMIn this week's issue:

  • Weekly Commentary
  • Strategy of the Week
  • Stocks That Meet The Featured Strategy

 

 

Stockscores Market Minutes - Avoiding Bias
Humans can do a good job of screwing up trades by letting their emotional bias in to the decision making. This week, I discuss that, my market analysis and the trade of the week on AKRX. Click Here to Watch
To get instant updates when I upload a new video, subscribe to the Stockscores YouTube Channel


Trader Training - Bat and Balls

Here is a test.



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Timing & trends

The Importance Of Yellen's Comments

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Posted by Marc Chandler via Seeking Alpha via Seeking Alpha

on Tuesday, 11 April 2017 06:27

yelSummary

Yellen said little about the prospects of a June hike and even less about the balance sheet.

Nevertheless, she shed light on the Fed's thinking and the importance of financial conditions.

Financial conditions have eased since the Dec. 16 and March 17 rate hikes.

Barring a premature tightening of conditions, we expect the Fed to hike in June.

Yellen's talk after the North American markets closed was revealing even though she added little to the market's body of knowledge about the prospects for a June hike or the issues surrounding the balance sheet. That said, she did nothing to dissuade the market from leaning toward a June hike, which through the Fed funds futures strip estimates near 63%.

...continue reading HERE

 

also: Top Of The Charts: Is The Loonie Overvalued?



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Timing & trends

Sentiment: Market is Waiting On The Catalyst to Go Higher

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Posted by Gregory Clay - TheOptionPlayer.com

on Monday, 10 April 2017 07:17

Market Outlook

Jeff Hirsch in the Almanac Trader updated the S&P 500 Performance during the First 100 Days of new administrations since 1953 in a post titled "February Weakness Stolen, March Stolen Thunder." Looking at the chart below March was indeed a dud. Instead of a respectable rally, S&P 500 fell 0.04% in March. It has been 78 calendar days since President Trump took office and S&P 500 has gained 3.9% which is still above historical average. Historically, March was a flat month for new Republican administrations (solid red line in chart below), but that weakness ended on average in early April and the S&P 500 rallied nearly 4% by the end of the month (black arrow). A similar result this year would put S&P 500 off this chart by the end of the month. Recently we pointed out April marks the end of what is historically the best six months for DJIA and the S&P 500. Since 2006, April has been up eleven years in a row with an average gain of 2.6% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. April is second best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

44129 e

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is known as the market's "fear gauge" because it tracks the expected volatility priced into short-term S&P 500 Index options. When stocks stumble, the uptick in volatility and the demand for index put options tends to drive up the price of options premiums and sends the VIX higher. Recently we pointed out "...as equity prices have faltered a bit the past few weeks' investors are starting to show signs of nervousness by driving the VIX higher..." As evidenced in the updated chart below this trend continues as investors are becoming concerned about the White House fiscal agenda and increasing global restlessness.

VIX and S&P500 Daily Charts



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