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Timing & trends

Active Trader Predicts Vix Spike & Nasdaq Selloff

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen - Active TradinPartners.com

on Monday, 12 June 2017 06:13

A potential increase in risk may create massive opportunities for investors.

Throughout our ongoing analysis of the US markets, metals, energy and other market sectors, one thing we have seen over and over is that markets can, and often do, develop longer term trends than most people believe are possible or believable.

Recently, numerous analysts have been warning of potential “critical crashes” and “deep retracements” because of the fear that this rally is nearing some type of end cycle.  We believe the charts tell the story of the investor sentiment and that, at some point in the future, these predictions may become true – but not today.

The VIX chart tells us quite a bit in terms of volatility, trend and potential market changes.  One can see from this chart that the VIX has been trending within a “flag formation” that reaches a pinnacle in October 2017.  This contracting flag formation is telling us that, unless the VIX breaks this range substantially, it should continue trading within this range for some time.  At some point in the future, the VIX will break this flag channel and we could, then, see much more dramatic price volatility and corrections.  But, until that time, contractions will continue to be muted in size and the bullish trend is likely to continue for a while.

Notice the averages are near the 12~13.  There is a strong likelihood that the VIX could pop into and above these levels, briefly, through natural market contractions in the near future.  By our analysis, roughly every 10~15 trading days (2~3 weeks) the VIX attempts to make some attempt at these levels from extreme lows.

I originally wrote this article on June 7th, but was not able to get it edited and posted until this weekend. See my statement below regarding when the VIX was set to spike:

This cycle indicates we should expect a VIX spike near June 9th or 12th and June 29th. Well, Friday the VIX spiked big as the NASDAQ crashed. In fact, I did take a net short position on the VIX as I expect stocks will continue their trend higher and thus the VIX will fade back down. I took this swing trade with my automated VIX trading system AT VIX

 VIX Daily F



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 10 June 2017 07:38

1. Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 1 - Gold

Since the bull market in gold started over 15 years ago, we haven’t seen such a long consolidation pattern – ever. Even the big 2008 plunge was followed by a rally almost immediately (from the long-term point of view, that is). The gold volatility index confirms the above having recently moved to new all-time lows

....read it all HERE

2. Qatar & the Rising Tensions in the Middle East – On Schedule

Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada said they are keeping rates the same for the 15th time in face of uncertainty.  Also his views on the economy, challenges from the US including the selloff of their strategic oil reserve and more....

....read it all HERE

3. Canada 6-City May Housing Prices & the Plunge-O-Meter

The average detached housing prices for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa and Montréal. And the Plunge-O-Meter which tracks the dollar and percentage losses from the peak and projects when prices might find support.

....read it all HERE

chart-canada 5 orig-1



Timing & trends

ALERT: This Is The Reason Why There Was A Panic To Push The Price Of Gold Lower Today

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Posted by King World News

on Thursday, 08 June 2017 07:12

King-World-News-Maguire-This-Triggered-Todays-Massive-Selloff-In-Gold-Silver-864x400 cWith the price of gold nearing the $1,300 level in early trading, this is the reason why there was a panic to push the price of gold lower today.

Gold So Close!
By Andrew Adams, at Raymond James
June 7 (King World News) – Finally, gold has been on a bit of a tear lately to rocket back up close to $1300, and if it can just get over $1310 or so, it should have a good chance to once again challenge its highs from last July…

....continue reading HERE

...also from KingWorld:

One Of The Greats Says Gold & Silver Are Poised For Major Bullish Advances



Timing & trends

Qatar & the Rising Tensions in the Middle East – On Schedule

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 07 June 2017 07:08

Doha-Qatar

Qatar is known for its ultra-modern architecture. In this respect, Doha is something to be viewed at least once in life. However, Qatar is a strict religious country that follows sharia law, in which homosexuals and adulterers face a possible death penalty, life imprisonment, or flogging. Qatar is a Salafi version of Sunni Islam, which is an ultra-conservative reform branch that developed in Arabia during the first half of the 18th century. It advocated a return to the traditions of the “devout ancestors” in reaction to the spread of European ideas. Qatar is one of the two Salafi states in the Muslim world, the other being Saudi Arabia.

That said, Qatar is said to be the nost duplicitous country in the world. On the one hand they embrace the West, yet on the other hand many have called it “Club Med” for terrorists. Qatar is the richest nation on Earth on a Per capita basis. Abu Nakhlah Airport (Arabic:مطار أبو نخلة) in Qatar houses both the Qatari Air Force and U.S. Air Force as well as other Coalition personnel. It is also the headquarters of United States Central Command.

....continue reading HERE

....also from Martin:

Britain & the Thursday Election



Timing & trends

Technically Speaking: 3-Bullish & 3-Bearish Charts

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Posted by Lance Roberts - Real Investment Advice

on Tuesday, 06 June 2017 08:15

As I discussed in this past weekend’s missivethe breakout of the market to new highs keeps our allocation model nearly fully allocated. However, while we are long, we are still holding onto a little larger than normal cash pile, and raised stop levels, to hedge some volatility risk during the summer months. (Stops have now moved up to the bottom of the bullish trendline as shown in the chart below which coincides with the 100-day moving average which has been a running support line.)

SP500-Chart1-060217

One thing that keeps us a bit more cautious currently is the intermediate term “sell signal” which remains in place from very high levels. That, as shown below, and with a push into 3-standard deviations above the moving average, has not historically had the best outcomes. So, we’re cautious.



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