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Timing & trends

The Top 3 Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 17 June 2017 08:09

jim-rogers-making-money-is-one-of-the-most-dangerous-things-you-can-do-as-an-investor

1. JIM ROGERS: The worst crash in our lifetime is coming

Rogers: I learned very early in my investing careers: I better not invest in what I want. I better invest in what’s happening in the world. Otherwise, I’ll be broke. Dead broke.  Well, what’s going to happen is it’s going to continue. Some stocks in America are turning into a bubble. The bubble’s gonna come. Then it’s gonna collapse and you should be very worried. 

....read it all HERE

2. Changes Coming Along With Higher Canadian Interest Rates

     by Michael Campbell

The Fed moved interest rates higher thursday putting pressure on Canada to raise rates. With BOC Stephen Poloz saying low rates "have done their job", and with Canadian growth outperforming the US recently it looks like higher rates are coming to Canada too. Will it be 1/4 of a percent, 1/2%....?..

....read it all HERE

3. Pop Goes The Housing Boom... In Canada

We're headed for another housing bust. This time in Canada. And the key is China.

It's no secret that Chinese investors, seeking asylum from the slow-motion credit bust underway there, have been dumping tons of cash into Canadian real estate.

But it looks like a number of events are coming together at the same time to blow up that market before the end of 2017.

....read it all HERE



Timing & trends

Random Thoughts on this Crazy Charging Stock Market Bull

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Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Friday, 16 June 2017 09:41

In the sphere of thought, absurdity and perversity remain the masters of the world, and their dominion is suspended only for brief periods. Arthur Schopenhauer

The proverbial question for many years has always been; when will this stock market bull end? By every measure of logic and or common sense, this bull market should have crashed years ago. However, it hasn't, and much to the angst of many professionals continued its march upwards against all the odds. We would like to stop here and state that this market is now very close to trading in the extremely overbought ranges. A market can trade in the overbought ranges for an extended period. In this instance, we analysed monthly charts, where each bar represents a month’s worth of data. Historically, a market has experienced a correction within 5-10 months from the occurrence of this event. As of yet, the markets are not trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the monthly charts, but they are very close to moving into this zone.

Why has this market defied the expectations of all the professionals?

One of the culprits could be the emotional state of the masses. There is something almost insane taking place in this bull market; the higher it trends, the more anxious individuals come. It almost does not make sense as the opposite of this is what normally takes place. Were we not experiencing this first hand, we would find it almost impossible to believe such an event could occur.

Anxiety June  2017 - Copy

We update this gauge every two weeks, and the last reading shows that the masses are still firmly entrenched in the anxiety zone. Sadly history also indicates that bull markets never end on a note of fear or angst but on a note of extreme joy/euphoric. We don’t want anyone to lose that is not our desire; all we are doing is simply examining historical trends both from a price perspective and a mass psychology perspective. Thus it appears that this market will only crash when the majority finally decide to embrace this incredibly resilient bull market.



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Timing & trends

Hope for the Best but Prepare for the Worst (with Gold and Munis)

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 15 June 2017 07:43

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Last week investors shrugged off even more drama coming out of Washington. Stocks continued to rally and hit record highs, even as former FBI director James Comey testified that, in his opinion, President Donald Trump fired him in an attempt to lift the “cloud” of the Russia investigation. 

If true, this suggests obstruction of justice, an impeachable offense. And if impeached, or in the event of a resignation, Trump’s political agenda would likely be derailed. The last (and only) time a U.S. president resigned, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost up to 40 percent,as a recent article in TheStreet reminds us.

But markets paid no mind to Comey’s insinuations, underscoring investors’ confidence that tax reform and deregulation will proceed as planned. And sure enough, just hours after Comey testified, the House of Representatives voted to repeal key parts of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which has contributed to an alarming number of small bank closures since its passage in 2010.

So once again, the wisdom of crowds prevails. If you remember, markets were forecasting as far back ago as last summer that Trump would win the November election.

This doesn’t mean, however, that Trump’s problems are behind him.

Last week I was speaking with Mike Ward, a top publisher with Agora Financial, who compared Presidents Trump and Ronald Reagan. It was suggested that, despite Trump’s apparent affection for the 40th president, he has so far failed to live up to the Great Communicator’s memory of optimism and deep respect for the office.

Whereas Reagan wanted to “tear down this wall,” Trump wants to “put up that wall.” Whereas Reagan insisted it was “morning in America,” Trump insists it’s “American carnage.” Reagan succeeded in building coalitions and unifying our allies against the Soviet Union. Trump has already managed to destabilize many of those alliances.

During the 1988 vice-presidential debate, Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen famously ribbed then-Senator of Indiana Dan Quale for comparing himself favorably to John F. Kennedy. “I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy,” Bentsen said. “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.”

Similarly, many observers are of the opinion that Trump is no Reagan.

Don’t get me wrong. I remain hopeful. President Trump wants to make America great again, and it’s still well within his power to do so—if he can practice some self-restraint and not get caught up in petty feuds. Voters support his vision. They gave him not only the Executive Branch but also Congress and most states’ governorships and legislatures. 

You could say I’m hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. I advise investors to do the same. No one can say what the future holds, and it’s prudent to have a portion of your portfolio in gold, gold stocks and short-term, tax-free municipal bonds, all of which have a history of performing well in volatile times.



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Timing & trends

Ultra-low Volatility #ThisTimeIsDifferent

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Posted by Axel Merk - Merk Investments LLC

on Wednesday, 14 June 2017 08:55

We increasingly see claims low volatility in the markets may be structural. Even as we agree that some of the analyses we see make good points, we are concerned we may be setting ourselves up for a major shock. Let me explain. 

2017-06-12-buy-sell

Before getting into the details about the current environment, let me make some general observations. In my experience, complacency, with its cousin low volatility, is the best bubble indicator I am aware of. Perceived safety gets investors to pile into investments that they later regret. When it happens on a massive scale, major market distortions may be created that can lead to financial crises. And as the tech bubble that burst in 2000 shows, even if there is no systemic risk, the unwinding can be most painful to investors. In 2008, however, the perception that home prices always had to rise had become engrained in highly levered, yet illiquid, financial instruments, causing the unwinding to bring the global financial system to its knees. In our assessment, however, make no mistake about it: assuming for a moment the next crash won't take down a major bank, doesn't imply it cannot wipe out much more of your wealth than you ever anticipated.

Indeed, lower bank leverage is given as an argument as to why volatility is lower these days. Except that the run-up to the financial crisis of 2008 - a period in which banks were extra-ordinarily levered - also showed low volatility in a variety of markets. It was the perceived safety, embodied by quasi-sophisticated value-at-risk (VAR) models that got risk managers at financial institutions to gear up. What could possibly go wrong, right?



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Timing & trends

JIM ROGERS: The worst crash in our lifetime is coming

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Posted by Jim Rogers via MSN Money

on Tuesday, 13 June 2017 08:59

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Legendary investor Jim Rogers sat down with Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget on this week's episode of The Bottom Line. Rogers predicts a market crash in the next few years. One that he says will rival anything he has seen in his lifetime. Following is a transcript of the video. 

Blodget: One of the things I’ve always admired about you as an investor is that you don’t talk about what should be. You figure out what is going to be and then, you do that. So what is going to be with respect to the stock market? What’s going to happen? 

Rogers: I learned very early in my investing careers: I better not invest in what I want. I better invest in what’s happening in the world. Otherwise, I’ll be broke. Dead broke.  Well, what’s going to happen is it’s going to continue. Some stocks in America are turning into a bubble. The bubble’s gonna come. Then it’s gonna collapse and you should be very worried.  But Henry, this is good for you. Because someone has to report it. So you have job security. You’re a lucky soul. 

Blodget: Well, yeah, TV ratings do seem to go up during crashes but then they completely disappear when everyone is obliterated, so no one is hoping for that.  So when is this going to happen?

....continue reading HERE



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Notes From Michael - June 28th The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety)...

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