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Timing & trends

The US Dollar Bulls Are Falling for a DANGEROUS Trap...

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Posted by Graham Summers - Phoenix Capital Research

on Friday, 03 February 2017 11:30

As we have repeatedly warning, anyone who is betting on the Trump Presidency unleashing a massive $USD bull market in the near future is going to get taken to the cleaners.

This has already begun…

One of the single most dangerous traps for traders to avoid is a “False Breakout.”

False breakouts are moves in which an asset “breaks out” of a formation, leading many to believe that the move is legitimate… then suddenly KA-BLAM, the move reverses violently.

See the $USD today. This looks more and more like a false breakout, which means YES, the $USD is going to sub 90s if not lower within 12 months.

 2-3gs

Those who believe Trump wants the $USD above 100 are not paying attention. Similarly, those who believe that the Fed can and will raise rates three times in 2017 are missing the big picture.

NEITHER OF THOSE IS GOING TO HAPPEN. And if you’re investing based on them, you’re in for a LOT of pain.

Originally posted on http://gainspainscapital.com

Best Regards

Graham Summers

....also: Market Melt-up Brings Volatility to Metals



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Timing & trends

Canada's 2017 Economic Outlook: A Tale of Two "Tails"

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Posted by Pimco - Canadian Perspectives

on Thursday, 02 February 2017 13:41

 

Screen Shot 2017-02-02 at 1.04.34 PM

  • We believe active investors’ success in adding value in Canada’s markets in 2017 will hinge on their ability to navigate an increased probability of extreme economic outcomes – both good and bad.
  • Left-tail outcomes could result from protectionist U.S. trade policy, including Donald Trump’s promised renegotiation of NAFTA, and the potential for higher interest rates that would affect Canada’s debt-laden consumers and detract from GDP growth by lowering consumption and residential investment.
  • Right-tail opportunities could develop if pro-growth policies in the U.S. drive economic growth north of the border by spurring exports and business fixed investment.
  • As U.S. rates rise, we would expect Canadian rates to rise and for the yield curve to steepen. However, the Bank of Canada’s more accommodative stance would likely translate to a slower pace of increases than in the U.S.

....continue reading for the & "Invesment Implications" HERE

...related from Michael:

For Canada the Trump Effect Is Unavoidable

 



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Timing & trends

Market Melt-up Brings Volatility to Metals

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen & John Winston: TheMarketTrendForecast.com

on Tuesday, 31 January 2017 06:43

Our recent analysis bases on a previous report of the potential for a further run in the US markets based on a number of technical and fundamental factors leads to the question of "what could happen with Gold and Silver". A broad US market rally may put some pressure on the metals markets initially, but, in our opinion, the increase in volatility and uncertainty will likely prompt more potential for upward price action in precious metals.

As with most things in the midst of uncertainty and transition, the US Presidential election has caused many traders to rethink positions and potential. As foreign elections continue to play out, wild currency moves are starting to become more of a standard for volatility. Combine this with a new US President and a repositioning of US global and local objectives and we believe we are setting up for one of the most expansive moves in recent years for the US general markets and the metals markets. This week, alone, we have seen a flurry of action in DC and the US markets broke upward on news of the Dakota Pipeline and other Executive actions.

As we wrote week or so ago, we believe the US markets will push higher in 2017 a business investment, US strategy and foreign capital runs back into the US equity market chasing opportunity and gains. Additionally, we believe the strength of the US market, paired with continued strength of the US Dollar, will drive a further increase in global volatility and wild swings in foreign markets. This volatility, uncertainty and equity repositioning will likely drive Gold and Silver to continued highs throughout 2017 - possibly much longer if the new trend generates renewed follow-through.

Our belief that the US markets will continue to melt-up while certain foreign markets deteriorate relates to our belief that currency variances will become more volatile and excessive over the next few months. This, in combination with a renewed interest in developing US economic solutions, will likely drive the US markets higher while the metals markets will continue to become a safe-haven for US and foreign investors to protect against deflation and foreign market corrections.

S&P Futures are setting up a clear bullish pennant/flag formation that will likely prompt an explosive price move within 2~3 weeks. This bullish flag formation is likely to drive the ES price higher by roughly 100+ pts.  Currently, strong resistance is just above 2275, so we'll have to wait for this level to be breached before we see any potential for a bigger price move.

SP500 Weekly Chart

43593 a


SP500 Daily Chart



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Timing & trends

Greyerz – We Now Have The Perfect Recipe For A Global Disaster

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Posted by Egon Greyerz via King World News

on Monday, 30 January 2017 06:53

King-World-News-Greyerz-We-Now-Have-The-Perfect-Recipe-For-A-Global-Disaster-864x400 c1.  All major economies, USA, China, Japan, Europe and Emerging markets have debt which have grown exponentially and will never be repaid. 

2.  The financial system has a gross exposure of over $2 quadrillion. This will all collapse when counterparty fails. 

3.  With the Trump administration leading, the world will soon enter the final spending spree which will accelerate the velocity of money and lead to hyperinflation. This will in turn finish off the value of most major currencies until they reach zero. 

4.  1-3 above will result in a deflationary implosion of the financial system. This will get rid of all debt and reduce the value of most assets by at least 90%.

5.  This total debt destruction is the only way to put a world on a sound footing for future growth and prosperity.

....read more including the antidote HERE

also:

All star Analyst, Jack Crooks on Trump, Bonds and the US$



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Timing & trends

Gold Market Correction: Key Tactics

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 27 January 2017 13:57

January 27, 2017

Today's videos and charts (double-click to enlarge):

Gold, Silver, & T-Bonds Key Charts Video Analysis

hubbartt012717-1



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