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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 12 August 2017 08:27

1. You, Your Investments & Isaac Newton's 3rd Law

   by Michael Campbell

Issac Newton's 3rd law states "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction". We have seen this physical law govern the investing world when for example the dot-com bubble rose spectacularily in 4 years to its highs, then reversed and collapsed all the way back to its starting point three years later. Anticipating when a major trend is going to change is arguably the underlying factor determining profits and losses. Newtons 3rd law is also applicable to to society in general, and with the rise in societal extremism the only thing we can count on is that there will be an equal and opposite reaction. The question? How will that reaction manifest.  

...read more HERE

Screen Shot 2017-08-10 at 9.02.31 PM2. Todd Market Forecast: Two Indicators Mark a Trading Bottom

Five day RSI is again oversold and the VIX (volatility index) is above 15. Lately, both levels have marked a trading bottom.

....continue HERE

3. Running Out of Gold: Buyout Phase Imminent

Peak gold production may be at hand, says Tom Beck, founder of Portfolio Wealth Global, and explains why he believes the market has entered the buyout phase.

....read it all HERE



Timing & trends

“What, Me Worry?” Markets

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor Deviant Investor

on Friday, 11 August 2017 07:03

Mad Magazine introduced Alfred E. Neuman (What, Me Worry?) in the 1950s. He did NOT become a central banker. That is “fake news.”

I-alfred-e-neuman

Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, created “What, Me Worry?” markets after the 2008 crash.  There has been little worry since the November election, until now. But the market worry level may have increased.  Changes between highs and lows in two days – until time of this writing:

Date                       Aug. 8                   Aug. 10

DOW                     22,179                  21,920

Gold                      1251.6                  1287.2

Consider the 50+ year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

I-Dow-600x420

Black line:  Nice move up.

Green Line:  Acceleration out of the nasty 2008 crash

Red line:  What, me worry? (Too far, too fast!)



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Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast: Two Indicators Mark a Trading Bottom

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 10 August 2017 21:39

3:00pm Pacific for Thursday August 10, 2017 

DOW - 218 on 2200 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 135 on 1700 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: What we have seen over the past couple of days is a typical market phenomenon. An overbought market just keeps inching up. It refuses to go down for more than a few hours, driving traders, who want a pullback, to distraction.

Then one day a bearish news event happens. Some call it a "black swan" and the bottom falls out. We're down sharply for a day or three and then we hit bottom.

It wasn't just the N. Korean situation, but also the intraparty tiff between the President and Congress.

I think that this is what is going on here. Of course, seasonality remains a concern

GOLD: Gold was up another $12. The move to safety is clearly the catalyst.

CHART Five day RSI is again oversold and the VIX (volatility index) is above 15. Lately, both levels have marked a trading bottom.

Screen Shot 2017-08-10 at 9.02.31 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.



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Timing & trends

Everybody's Betting On A Weaker Dollar

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Posted by Movement Capital via Seeking Alpha

on Thursday, 10 August 2017 07:07

weak-dollarSummary

Commodities: Speculators reduced their long positioning in silver, commercials are actively hedging in feeder cattle, and CoT data helped reveal crowded positioning in coffee and natural gas.

Currencies: Traders have big long positions in the Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar, and euro. The Japanese yen is one of the few foreign currencies without crowded long exposure.

Stocks: Traders quickly reversed their stance on U.S. equity index futures since Q1 of last year, and it's important to contextualize positioning in VIX futures.

Note: My approach for analyzing CoT data to reveal how different types of traders are positioned in the futures markets is outlined here. If you missed it, give the article a read to see the method behind my analysis. All data and images in this article come from my website.

This article outlines how traders are positioned and how that positioning has recently changed. I break down the updates by asset class, so let's get started.

Commodities

....continue reading HERE



Timing & trends

What Happens If We Get a Recession?

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Posted by The 10th Man - Mauldin Economics

on Thursday, 10 August 2017 06:46

economy-recessionIf you are in the business of forecasting the stock market, you have to think about a concept known as spot-dependency.

You might have heard of skew, where out-of-the-money put options are more expensive than out-of-the-money call options.

That’s (partly) a function of spot-dependent volatility—if the market declines to the strike of the put, it is likely to be more volatile than if it goes up to the strike of the call.

So, if you think we’re going to have a bear market, and that stocks are going to decline 30%, you then have to think about the spot-dependent Fed, spot-dependent politics, and spot-dependent economics.

What I’m saying is: nothing happens in a vacuum. If stocks decline 30%, we will be living in a vastly different world than we are today.



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