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Timing & trends

Bob Hoye: Investment Fads

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Friday, 09 February 2018 15:44

Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 3.52.07 PM

Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 3.50.03 PM

Investment Fads

We have been fascinated by the chart on the publically-traded shares of the Swiss National Bank. Yes, it is the central bank, it trades, it zooms and it is long the latest fad in investing. Fiduciary responsibility being a constriction has become a neglected concept.

Their reserves have been committed to equities and the chart records the euphoria of the day.

Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 3.43.22 PM

As one would expect the biggest positions include the fad stocks of today.



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Timing & trends

Armstrong Canada Report - EXCLUSIVE OFFERS

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Posted by Martin Armstrong

on Friday, 09 February 2018 14:45

Marty and his team have been kind enough to allow us to provide a MoneyTalks exclusive 25% discount on his recent Report on Canada and the video of Marty's conversation with Michael from his Orlando Conference last November. Offer expires Sunday. ~ Ed

armstrong 2018 offer



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Timing & trends

The State of the Union – Markets

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Posted by Gary Christensen - The Deviant Investorstor

on Friday, 09 February 2018 08:57

Global stock and bond markets: Watch out below!

I discussed over-priced markets here and here and here.

2017 was an outstanding year in many markets. 

  • DOW up 24.7%
  • NASDAQ 100 up 31% (Wow!)
  • Nikkei up 19%
  • DAX up 12%
  • Gold up 13.6%
  • Silver up 7.1%
  • XAU (gold mining stocks) Index up 8%
  • Dollar Index DOWN 10%

We can be certain of the following:

  • Death, Taxes and Politics.
  • When markets move too far and too fast in either direction, they correct.
  • Bubbles crash!

SO WHAT?

We live with the inevitability of death, and the predations of taxes and politics. Stock markets rise as the dollar inevitably devalues, and as investors become optimistic (higher P/E ratios). Stock prices fall when investors lose faith in the narrative that things are good, central banks are in control, this time is different… whatever. P/E ratios fall as investors lose confidence or earnings weaken.

Where are stock prices now?

Examine the 26 year chart of the DOW. 

  1. Prices accelerated into a near vertical (unsustainable) rise and corrected.
  2. The monthly and weekly RSI (Relative Strength—one of many timing indicators) reached all-time highs (over 116 years). The DOW moved too far and too fast, and then, as always, corrected.
  3. A high RSI (like late January 2018) shows high risk. It does NOT guarantee a turn down. Bubble markets often move from crazy (December 2017) to even more crazy (January 2018). And then they correct or crash!

word-image-4

Examine the 26 year chart of the NASDAQ 100.



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Timing & trends

Wild Trading To Kickoff February But This Will Be The Big Surprise For 2018

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Posted by KingWorldNews

on Thursday, 08 February 2018 07:22

The following is from Andrew Adams at Raymond James:  S&P 500 Was 5 Standard Deviations Beneath the 10-Day Moving Average: One of the many signs of downside extremes this week was the fact that the S&P 500 was 5 standard deviations beneath its 10-day moving average, the most “oversold” it had been since August 2015. Hopefully, this is yet another sign that the worst is behind us.

S&P 500 5-Standard Deviations Below 10-Day Average!

KWN-Adams-III-272018

 

.....continue reading HERE

 

.....also from KingWorldNews:

Is inflation around the corner?

 



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Timing & trends

Bob Hoye: Climate Stats

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Wednesday, 07 February 2018 06:13

Solar Minimum Continues

January's Sunspot count came in at 6.7, which was down from December's 8.2. The following chart includes the latest post and covers Solar Cycle 24.

The high was 145 in February 2014, which compares to the high of 238 in September 2003.

With the decline in solar activity, the number of Spotless days continues to grow. It's the way it works. So far, this year there has been 17 days, or 52% for the year. In all of 2017, the number was 104 days or 28% and the year before it was 32 days or 9%. For 2015 the count was zero, as it essentially was back to 2010.

On the weather front (pun not intended), there has been a brief warming in the El Nino region, which shows in the next chart.

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The main thing is that on the longer-term, the El Nino and its warming influence is waning.



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