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Timing & trends

What Just Took Place In Stocks Has Rarely Happened In The Past 117 Years

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Posted by Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader via King World News

on Friday, 21 April 2017 07:01

King-World-News-Celente-This-Will-Trigger-Panic-On-Wall-Street-Around-The-World-864x400 cFrom Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader:  The Dow has had a big little losing streak. Over the past 30 days, the index has seen 27 days with either a loss or tiny gain. That’s among the worst stretches since 1900, especially when the overall loss is small and it occurs relatively close to a multi-year high. The others usually led to gains over the next several months, and the exceptions’ losses were all small…

....continue reading HERE

 

...also from King World:

Man Who Advises Top Sovereign Wealth Funds In The World Warns U-Turn By Fed To Create Massive Market Shock



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Timing & trends

Extreme Pessimism indicates market is near inflection point!

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen - TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

on Tuesday, 18 April 2017 13:15

Thursday’s, April 13th, 2017, trading displayed some evidence of “exhaustive selling”. It is still trading well above its 200- simple moving day average. The BULLISH RALLY has not stopped.

In identical occurrences, based on historical data, the one-month returns, during which the SPX rallied 15 out of 16 times with a greater than 5-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio. “Emotional selloffs” occur in strong uptrends which have only presented themselves with greater buying opportunities.  This is the predominate case we are facing during this month of April.

Wave A is the first of three waves in the corrective phase. Corrections are almost always more difficult to identify than impulse waves and most investors confuse them as interim corrections. Volume might increase in Wave A and volatility will also rise, although not nearly enough to imply a bottom.

Wave B tends to be the most difficult to identify. The volume of Wave B tends to be lower than that of Wave A. Wave B will consist of three sub waves and should retrace at least .62 percent of Wave A.

Wave C is often very impulsive and marks end of the current corrective phase. Volume may be higher in Wave C than in Wave A. Wave C is made up of five sub waves and terminates beyond the end of Wave A. Some studies suggest that Wave C should not continue beyond 1.618 times Wave A, but this is not a rule

The cart below shows the worst-case scenario based on current analysis. The low put in during the month of March could be in fact a bottom as there was a very small A-B-C correct pattern in March already.

EW1-768x577

The momentum oscillators are now working themselves to the oversold levels.  The SPX is in the midst of its Corrective Wave ‘A-B-C’ that has further to go on the downside.

There is no desire to rally.  It appears that SPX is beginning its’ Wave C and it should see follow thru to the downside the next couple of weeks.  The bond markets and gold markets will continue to have a very short-term run up, trading with a negative correlation to stocks.

What is the ‘McClellan Oscillator’



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Timing & trends

Giving Credit Too Easily

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Monday, 17 April 2017 07:06

 Screen Shot 2017-04-17 at 7.00.03 AM

Screen Shot 2017-04-17 at 6.37.54 AM

Perspective

The key line is about banks pulling back and "new players with looser lending are stepping in". This reminds of the culmination of the 1772 Bubble. The Ayr Bank was newly formed and became an aggressive lender in the final stages of that mania. The partners were out to show the older banks what the world of new finance was all about. The collapse ruined most of its investors and became a subject in Adam Smith’s book, The Wealth of Nations. An inquiry completed in 1777 listed some reasons for the failure. One was "giving credit too easily".

As with most great bubbles, that one climaxed in June and then the contraction started. As usual, the panic got underway in late September and cleared in November. The post-bubble contraction ran the usual twenty years.

For new readers, the great bubbles completed in 1720, 1772, 1825, 1873, 1929 and 2007. All had common characteristics and consequences.

And Papua New Guinea—it was only a few decades ago when the national pastime was headhunting. The key concept in the proposed issue is "dollar bonds", due and payable in New York in dollars.


Stock Markets



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Timing & trends

The 3 Most Interesting Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 15 April 2017 07:03

100281353-gold bars piles gettyP.530x2981. Gold Price Rally: Enjoy The Ride

 There’s no question that gold can pull back at any time now, given the extent of the rally, but even a decline to $1225 would only add to the positive look of the chart.

....read more HERE


2. Marc Faber: Central Bankers Desperate to Keep Colossal Global Debt Bubble Inflated

Marc thinks the Fed will only raise rates once more in 2017 before the next global financial crisis. He thinks the Federal Reserve will reverse course, start lowering interest rates again and do a large QE program. Central bankers are routinely coordinating monetary and interest rate policy as well as exchange rates with each other to prevent a "colossal debt bubble" from bursting. 

....continue HERE

3. Sentiment: Market is Waiting On The Catalyst to Go Higher

April marks the end of what is historically the best six months for DJIA and the S&P 500. Since 2006, April has been up eleven years in a row with an average gain of 2.6% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950.And there's no end in sight.

...read much more HERE

 



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Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast: Most Indicators Looking For a Trading Bottom

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 12 April 2017 16:39

Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday April 12, 2017

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 59 on 1100 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 31 on 1050 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: Most of our indicators are looking for a trading bottom, but it takes more than this. The market has to demonstrate that it can actually move higher and so far that hasn't happened.

The main problem continues to be geopolitical. There is the potential for armed conflict in Korea and the U.S. and Russia aren't getting along too well in the Middle East.

GOLD: Gold rose another $12. A sharp dollar drop and geopolitics remain a factor.

CHART The S&P 500 is finally oversold as measured by 5 day RSI. This is normally a positive. It would help if world tensions would lessen.

Screen Shot 2017-04-12 at 4.19.24 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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