Timing & trends

Gold Looks Like a Bargain Just in Time for Christmas

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 05 December 2017 07:13


One of the most compelling and engaging presenters at the Precious Metals Summit in London last month was Ronald-Peter Stöferle, a managing partner at Liechtenstein-based asset management company Incrementum. Incrementum, as you may know, is responsible for publishing the annually-updated, widely-read “In Gold We Trust” report,which I’ve cited a number of times before.

During his presentation, Stöferle shared the fact that his wife prefers to do her Christmas decoration shopping in January. When he asked her why she did this—Christmas should be the last thing on anyone’s mind in January—she explained that everything is half-off. A bargain’s a bargain, after all.

This is very smart. Here we are several days before Christmas, and demand for ornaments, lights and other decorations is red-hot, so be prepared to pay premium prices if you’re doing your shopping now. But mere hours after the Christmas presents have been unwrapped and Uncle Hank has fallen asleep on the couch with a glass of boozy eggnog, stores will begin slashing prices to get rid of inventory.

Gold bullion and mining stocks are currently in the “January” phase, so to speak, according to Stöferle. The Barron’s Gold Mining Index, which goes all the way back to 1938, recently underwent its longest bear market ever, between April 2011 and January 2016. And as I already shared with you, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported last month that gold demand fell to an eight-year low in the third quarter.

Barrons gold mining index bear markets since 1942
click to enlarge

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is,” Warren Buffett famously said. “The time to get interested is when no one else is.”

The same logic applies to Christmas decorations, gold and mining stocks.

Gold on Track for Its Best Year Since 2010



Timing & trends

Now try telling me that charts don't work

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Posted by Clive Maund

on Monday, 04 December 2017 06:25

I would no sooner invest without using charts than I would drive down a freeway at 90 miles per hour with my head in a blindfold or a brown paper bag. What would you think if the Weatherman came on the TV and instead of showing you a chart, presented you with a table of data? – or you boarded a plane with the windows shuttered and the Captain explaining “Oh – I don’t need to see out – my instruments provide me with all the information I need to fly the plane.”? Charts are about perspective and proportion, and without them you’ve got none. 

By the time you are done reading this review you will, or should be if you are reasonable, be left in no doubt about the awesome money making power of charts, properly used. On clivemaund.com our investing strategy is simple, we go where the action is. Until 2011 some of the best gains were to be made in the Precious Metals space and we tracked that sector closely during its bullmarket. Then it changed and in more recent times the action has shifted to biotech, blockchain and cryptocurrencies, and marijuana, Tech generally and the FANGS etc. Because we go where the action is, that is why we are able to make the big gains you will see set out below on a regular basis. The charts presented below are color coded – blue for Oil, coral for Biotech, green for Marijuana and yellow and white for Blockchain, a sector we are just moving into. Because these charts are largely retrospective the usual indicators appended above and below them have been removed to save space and reduce clutter. Note that clicking on the company name will take you to the most relevant report on its stock on clivemaund.com where the password protection has been removed in order that you are able to open it. Now read on… Biotech & Medical StocksWe just closed a nice trade in Scythian. We spotted that a Double Bottom was forming above its rising 200-day moving average, accompanied by a positive volume pattern, so bought it on a couple of occasions as it marked out the 2nd low of the pattern. Took profits last week after it had arrived at a resistance level in an overbought state… Scythian Biosciences SCYB.V C$6.75 


Blockchain StocksAnalytix Insight Inc ALY.V, ATIXF on OTC, C$0.55, C$0.43 Analytix has a very strong chart. We bought it about a week ago as it completed a tight bull Flag, which it then broke out of so that we are now up 28% and holding for further gains. Note the powerfully bullish volume pattern… 



Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles of the Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 02 December 2017 07:56

Justin-Trudeau-Crying1. The Fight For Free Speech

   by Michael Campbell

Taxpayers pay billions every year subsidizing the University education of approximately 1.9 million mainly middle and upper class students. Which is why the dustup at Laurier University and the Federal Liberals position on Free Speech is so important to note. 

...read more HERE

2. Six Themes That Will Drive the Next Five Years

Those looking for an optimistic forecast for U.S. equities can turn to Northern Trust. Bob Browne, its chief investment officer, identified six themes that will drive the capital markets over the next five years. Taken together, they translate to 5.9% annual returns for U.S. stocks over that period, which includes 2017.

....continue HERE

3. Seeking Value in an Expensive World

 The question I’ve been fielding ever since November 8th of last year and to this day is how we are investing around Donald Trump, and the answer has not changed one iota, which is that we are not investing around Trumponomics at all.

....read it all HERE


Timing & trends

3 Global Markets That Could Indicate an Interim Correction

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH

on Friday, 01 December 2017 06:46

Here are a few global ETFs with little room to drop in order to avoid daily chart technical breakdowns. That does not mean the end of the larger up trends, but could signal oncoming intermediate corrections if they do fall further and close the week that way (pre-market is red). The question would be, are they leading the fiscally drunk US market and its chronic tweeter in chief/stock pumper?

The Euro hedged European iShares, like the Euro STOXX 50 which it mimics, is in a bear flag. The biggest volume days have been red as this flag has ground upward. Not a short-term bullish look for Europe. What it does have going for it is that the SMAs 50 & 200 are both sloping upward. Even a hit of the 200 is within the context of the up trend.


China 50 has been an absolute robot in its orderly up trend. The pullbacks have been to the SMA 50 and today, close on the heels of the last one a hard drop to the SMA 50 after a silly gap up is in play. This is a suspect for no other reason than that gap up looks like a classic bull trap. Speaking of which, what about the US Dow & SPX yesterday, eh Bueller? Anyway, it’s a long way down to the firmly up trending SMA 200 if FXI were to lose the 45 area.



Timing & trends

Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH

on Friday, 01 December 2017 06:36

Okay, so the theme is that on the macro 3 events may come together to signal a big climax, leading to change.


Those Amigos are…

    1. Stocks complete their rise vs. gold.
    2. 10yr & 30yr yields hit upside targets (and limitation points) around 2.9% & 3.3%, respectively.
    3. The yield curve finishes flattening (at least) and turns to steepening (at most).

We use the big picture graphic (a bit dated now) for cartoonish illustration purposes. This shows global and US stocks retracing the former bear market vs. gold, the 30yr yield Continuum™ and the yield curve.



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