Timing & trends

Donald Trump vs. Big Government Will he win? How can YOU win?

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Posted by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. - MoneyandMarkets.com

on Monday, 16 January 2017 07:53

martinwIf you think Mr. Trump is just blowing smoke when he rails against Washington’s bloated bureaucracy, you’d better sit down and brace yourself for a series of shocks …

Shock #1. The federal government’s complete failure to pass its audit: Just four days ago, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released its full audit report covering fiscal year 2016 … and it’s a disaster:

The U.S. government failed the audit on about 34% of its assets. 

This is crazy. When you run a public company, if your books are so botched up that your auditors refuse to give you a clean bill of health, it’s the kiss of death. But for the federal government, it’s routine; Uncle Sam has failed his audit in every single one of the past 20 years.

Here’s what’s new: Mr. Trump is the first president since Ronald Reagan with an explicit agenda to disrupt the status quo. Will that include a reorg that cleans up the mess? That remains to be seen. But if ever there was a president who has explicitly expressed the intent to tolerate some disruption for the sake of long-overdue fixes, Trump is it.



Timing & trends

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week

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Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 14 January 2017 09:03

1. Gold’s fate as Western society cracks apart …

   by Larry Edelson

Right now, gold is still caught in a trading range, but with a long-term bias toward exploding higher over the next few years to at least $5,000 an ounce.

...read more HERE

2. Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

 by John Winston

My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets. 

....continue HERE

3. The 27 most important finance books ever written

"In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none," Charlie Munger, the vice chairman at Berkshire Hathaway, once said.

With that in mind, we've highlighted 27 classic works that every Wall Streeter should read.

....continue reading HERE


Timing & trends

Prepare For Bearish News As OPEC Meets Next Week

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Posted by James Hyerczyk via Oilprice.com

on Friday, 13 January 2017 13:02

It’s been an up and down week for crude oil futures with the price action playing out as expected. Going into the new year, we were looking for a choppy, two-sided traded largely because of the uncertainty regarding compliance with the OPEC/Non-OPEC plan to cut production, trim supply and return price stability to the market. 

On the upside, we expected prices to be capped by rising U.S. production, while on the downside, prices were expected to be supported by reports that countries who had agreed to limit production would announce compliance with the plan. Based the price action this week, we can conclude that we’ve seen a little of both. 

Weekly West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil 

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been sideways for the last four weeks. A trade through $56.24 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $44.49 will change the trend to down. 

Given the average weekly range, it’s pretty safe to say the uptrend is safe next week. 

The major 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $50.69 to $54.25. The market is currently straddling this zone and to be specifically, it is straddling the Fibonacci level at $54.25. 

Based on the price action since December 16, the direction of March Crude Oil next week will be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at $54.25. 



click image for larger view

Bearish Scenario



Timing & trends

Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

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Posted by John Winston - ActiveTraders.com

on Thursday, 12 January 2017 09:18

My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets.  Many traders use and trade the VIX as a measurement of volatility.  The VIX is a measurement of the expected market volatility over the next 30 days.  As the VIX rises, traders expect larger and more volatile price swings.  As the VIX declines, traders expect smaller and more narrow price swings.

Currently, the VIX is near historical low levels and has recently past a critical cycle midpoint.


One can see from my cycle analysis, I am tracking to cycle events; a longer term top-to-top cycle event and a smaller bottom-to-top cycle event.  I call these dual-phase and single-phase cycle events, respectively.

This analysis tells me we recently past a single-phase bottom cycle (near Nov 30th) and are expecting a dual-phase top cycle event near Feb 17th.  Given the expected opportunity to retest the VIX high channel, the potential price move in the SSO would relate to a 11%~16.5% price swing (approx) – or larger.  The dark blue downward VIX channel is a boundary that we would expect the VIX move to attempt to reach.  It could blow past this level and develop a much larger price correction in the US and Global markets but lets just focus on one target at a time for now.

Now, let’s take a look as how this relates on the SSO chart.



Timing & trends

A Bullish Play in GDX

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Posted by Rick Ackerman - Rick's Picks

on Wednesday, 11 January 2017 08:05


Subscribers are long 400 shares from 22.61, stop 22.01, based on a real-time guidance for a ‘mechanical’ entry that was posted to chat room Scoreboard at 11:21 a.m. GDX, an ETF proxy for the gold mining sector, is having trouble getting airborne, but if the buying should catch fire, it has the potential to reach 24.58 (see inset) over the near term. For now, I’d suggest entering an order to sell half the position at p=23.30, the pattern’s ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ resistance. The order should be held o-c-o with a 22.01 stop-loss on the whole position. You should also offer another 100 shares at 24.58 g-t-c. If the order fills, we’d be left with 25% of the original position — or 100 shares, based on the original order. 

Click here for a no-risk, two-week trial subscription.

....related: More short term trading ideas from Victor Adair: Live From The Trading Desk: Long & Short Term Positions Now



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