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Timing & trends

Could Recent FANG Weakness Be Signaling the End of the Bull Run?

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Posted by Financial Sense

on Thursday, 22 June 2017 07:19

As we survey the financial markets and global economic backdrop, it appears that a change in the wind could be slowly taking place. Across the tides of global capital markets, a chillier wind may be starting to blow, ushering in what could soon be some sweeping changes in the major trends for primary capital markets. In China, the air of debt deleveraging seems to be taking root, with tightness in the money markets, bond market collapses, bond market closures, and inverted yield curves. In addition, there are also widespread rumors surrounding the viability of an assortment of wealth management products that have embedded duration mismatch problems baked into the cake.

Here at home in the USA, boom times remain in full swing with stock market averages busting out to new highs seemingly day-after-day. Yet, behind the bullish headlines, there seems to be developing a clear pattern of parabolic (terminal) excess within the technology space, a pattern familiar to those market watchers who recall 1999 and 2008.

06

Above: A basket of Large Cap Technology Stocks with Intermediate ARMS (inverted) is also extremely overbought. These types of readings tend to highlight medium term extremes so even if prices recover, there is a larger overtone to this type of bearish reading.

....continue reading HERE


...also from Financial Sense:

Central Banks Are Driving Many to Cryptocurrencies



Timing & trends

Global Blast-Off Trade Setup

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen for OilPrice.com

on Wednesday, 21 June 2017 06:45

Asia Custom Monthly F-290x130Our analysis of the global markets and metals markets are prompting us to issue a warning that may not shock a number of our followers – but may surprise others.  We use a number of custom indicators, custom indexes and other specialized features to try to keep our valued members aware of moves before they happen at ActiveTradingPartners.com.  You may recall our recent article warning of a VIX spike between June 9th and June 13th in correlation with a US market correction (NASDAQ).  We nailed this and predicted another VIX spike on June 29th, 2017.

Are you ready for what might become the most opportunistic setup we’ve seen in over a decade?  Well, before we get to the guts of our incredible setup, let’s go over some other data to support our predictions – the global markets.

On May 3rd, 2017, we authored an article regarding Global Economic Shifts that were taking place as a result of Capital Migration and renewed risk factors throughout the global markets.  Our hypothesis was that capital will always attempt to locate and migrate to financial environments where risk is mitigated and returns are sufficient.  We consider this an active and intrinsic role of global capital – the hunt for the ability to thrive and develop success/profits.

Since this research was completed, a number of new and interesting facets have evolved.  Two of the most interesting are the shifts within the Arabic nations with regards to Qatar and the almost total isolation recently enacted on this wealthy nation and the news from Europe that a number of smaller, regional banks are collapsing with broader, tangible relations to the EU banking system.  This type of disruption within a financial environment (think globally) causes capital to migrate rather quickly to more stable locations for self-preservation.

China/Asian markets appear to be developing a level of “moderately healthy financial environment” in terms of global market capital migration.  In the past, I would have warned that Asia/China could become a temporary safe-harbor for capital as it migrates out of riskier environments and I would still support that claim simple because China/Asia are less of a mature market compared to other.  Thus, the likelihood that China/Asia could see dramatic asset revaluation or some type of unexpected market function issues is still near the top of my list.  Yet, we can’t accurately predict when this will happen and until extended signs of weakness cause us to adopt a more concerned stance, we have to understand that capital will move to environments that seem suitable for success.  At this time, we believe China/Asia are viewed as just that – moderately suitable for capital deployment and investment (till things change).

Asia Chart



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Timing & trends

The Middle East Is Blowing Up

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Tuesday, 20 June 2017 07:42

images

Every day brings another scary headline from the Middle East — which makes it easy to treat them as background noise rather than a clear and present danger. But the latest batch is reminiscent of the Balkans circa 1914, which means it may be time to tune back in. Some examples: 

A US Navy jet shot down a Syrian warplane. Syria is a Russian client state, so this puts the US and Russia on opposite sides in a shooting war. 

Russia warned the US that it takes the destruction of its client’s military assets seriously.It suspended the hot line Washington and Moscow have used to avoid collisions in Syrian airspace and threatened to target US aircraft.



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Timing & trends

Bob Hoye: Checklist for a Top

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Monday, 19 June 2017 06:43

The following is part of Pivotal Events that was published for our subscribers June 8, 2017.


Screen Shot 2017-06-19 at 7.09.33 AM



Perspective



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Timing & trends

Trading Desk Notes - June 17

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Posted by Victor Adair & Drew Zimmermanew Zimmerman

on Saturday, 17 June 2017 10:33

Our thoughts on select markets as we wrap up the trading week.

Key events this week:

1) Bank of Canada signaled a change in interest rate policy

2) Federal Reserve was more “hawkish” than expected

3) WTI was hit with more bearish news

4) the CRB commodity index dropped to a 14 month low, down 9% from 2017 highs even as the USD fell 7%

Canadian Dollar: hit a 14 month low May 5 at 72.50 and then rallied in step with crude oil. But when crude oil “topped out” on the May 25th OPEC meeting and turned lower CAD drifted sideways for the next two weeks, taking its que from the weaker USD. On Monday and again on Tuesday this week top Bank of Canada officials indicated that the 2 “emergency” quarter point interest rates cuts made in 2016 had “done their job” and market expectations shifted dramatically to expecting interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada sooner rather than later.

CAD had its best 4 day rally in over a year rising from 74 to 76 cents Friday through Wednesday...a 3 ½ month high. The trading volume of Canadian dollar futures hit an All Time High on Wednesday June 14 (Fed day.)

We went back to being short CAD at the end of this week because: 1) it had rallied 2 cents in 4 days 2) crude oil had taken another leg down 3) the Fed was a little more hawkish than expected 4) the Canadian stock market dropped to 7 month lows (down 5% from the February All Time Highs) while the major American stock indices were at All Time Highs. We remain short CAD.

CAD-Jun17

The US Dollar Index: dropped to a new 7 month low early Wednesday morning on weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports and then rebounded sharply later that day and again Thursday on Yellen’s more hawkish than expected press conference remarks. We had been long the USD Index from the previous week and were stopped out on the early morning fall to new lows, but we “stepped up” and bought our positions back as the USD rallied on Yellen’s comments. (This was a “hard” trade to do, but as so many veteran traders will tell you, the “hard” trades often turn out to be your best trades!) We remain long USDX thinking that it may be turning higher after months of bearish pressure.



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