Todd Market Forecast: Bullish

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 07 March 2018 06:24

#1 ranked Trader by Timer's Digest with a 31.6% return for 2017 is still looking for higher stock prices and has switched to bullish Gold in last evenings letter after going bearish the US Dollar on March 2nd. The chart below certainly indicates there is still a lot of fear on the part of investors, though less than in previous days. Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. Robert Zurrer for Money Talks


Todd Market Forecast for 3pm PST Tuesday March 6, 2018

DOW + 9 on 1040 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 41 on 818 net advances



STOCKS: When the market is up over 300 on a session, it would hardly be surprising to see profit taking the next day. The bears tried, but failed. We were impressed by the action, especially breadth. The advance decline line has been a solid performer.

The Russell 2000 made a new rally high today. It's a good sign when smaller caps are outperforming. See the charge below.

There are almost zero signs of a top of any significance. Pullbacks should be bought.

GOLD: Gold was up $15. A sharply lower dollar helped. This changes our outlook below.

CHART: There are no guarantees in this business, but when the high techs are leading the charge, it suggest that there are higher prices ahead. Today the SOX or semiconductor index made an all time high (bottom arrow).

Screenshot 2018-03-07 06.21.46

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)


Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO at 114.33. Stay with it on Wednesday. We've gotten almost all of our loss from last week back.

System 9 We are currently neutral.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Factory orders dropped 1.4%, slightly worse than the expected drop of 1.3%. On Wednesday we get the trade deficit, oil inventories, the ADP employment numbers and the Fed Beige Book.

INTERESTING STUFF: Every reform, however necessary, will by weak minds be carried to an excess, that itself will need reforming. -----------Samuel Taylor Coleridge

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was up 4.  

BONDS: Bonds were slightly lower.

THE REST: The dollar got whacked. Crude oil was lower.

Bonds --Bullish as of Feb. 28.

U.S. dollar - Bearish as of March 2.

Euro --- Bullish as of March 2.

Gold ----Change to bullish as of March 6.

Silver---- Change to bullish as of March 6.

Crude oil ----Bullish as of March 2.

Toronto Stock Exchange----Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.   

Screenshot 2018-03-07 06.25.06

    Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.  


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