Todd Market Forecast The Best New Year Start Since 1987

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Posted by Steve Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Tuesday, 09 January 2018 15:00

For Tuesday January 9, 2018

Available Mon- Friday after 3:00pm Pacific

DOW + 103 on 502 net declines

NASDAQ COMP + 6 on 214 net declines



STOCKS: Yesterday, I forgot to mention a fairly important indicator. The last 42 years in which the first five days were higher was followed by full year gains 36 times for an 85.7% accuracy rate. The average gain was 14%. In fact, this is actually the best start to a new year since 1987.

So, why so strong? There is great anticipation for major earnings gains as a result of less regulation and the recent tax cut.

That said, the internals are lagging, but that can go on for quite a while.

GOLD: Gold was down $6. The dollar rally is having an effect. We're switching our evaluation below.

CHART: The S&P 500 was higher again, but there were more declining issues than advancing ones (arrow). That can sometimes be an early warning of some sort of pullback. But, the chart itself, meaning the ultimate indicator remains bullish.

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 3.09.21 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO from 110.59. Keep your stop at 113.59

System 9 On a buy signal from Dec. 29.  

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: This is a slow week for economic news. Job openings (JOLTS) were 5.879 million, less than the expected 6.038 million. On Wednesday we get oil inventories.

INTERESTING STUFF: Unite liberality with a just frugality; always reserve something for the hand of charity; and never let your door be closed to the voice of suffering humanity. --------Patrick Henry

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto inched up 2.

BONDS: Bonds collapsed.

THE REST: The dollar was higher. Crude oil surged to a new high.

Bonds --Change to bearish as of Jan. 9.

U.S. dollar - Bullish as of Jan. 3.

Euro --- Bearish as of Jan.3.

Gold ----Switch to bearish as of Jan. 9.

Silver---- Switch to bearish as of Jan. 9.

Crude oil ----Bullish as of Dec. 26.

Toronto Stock Exchange---- Bullish as of September 20, 2017.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.   

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 3.13.41 PM    

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.  


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