Todd Market Forecast: The NASDAQ is Curling Up From Oversold

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 06 December 2017 15:07

Wednesday December 6, 2017 Available Mon- Friday after 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 40 on 443 net declines

NASDAQ COMP + 14 on 920 net declines



STOCKS: Stocks meandered on Wednesday in a seemingly confused manner. We liked the fact that the high techs and the NASDAQ showed signs of life but the listed market couldn't get out of its own way.

Breadth was still not encouraging and the put call ratio remains low. Given the seasonality, it's tempting to put on a trading position, but let's hold off for now.

GOLD: Gold was up $2. Just an anemic bounce within a downtrend.

CHART: The NASDAQ Composite is just curling up from an oversold condition. This has a decent chance of projecting further strength. If this market rallies, it's unlikely that the Dow and S&P 500 will sit around.  

Screen Shot 2017-12-06 at 3.15.35 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are in cash. Stay there for now. We're looking to get back in, but we can't get an all clear just yet.

System 8 We are in cash. Stay there for now.

System 9 We are in cash.  

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The ADP employment report showed an additional 190,000 jobs, more than the expected 186,00. Oil inventories dropped 5.6 million barrels. Last week they dropped 3.4 million.  

INTERESTING STUFF: "The difference between 'involvement' and 'commitment' is like an eggs-and-ham breakfast: the chicken was 'involved' - the pig was 'committed'."-------- unknown

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was down 7.

BONDS: Bonds were up slightly.

THE REST:The dollar continued its rally. Crude oil got smacked, pretty good in spite of the lower inventories.

Bonds --Bullish as of November 14.

U.S. dollar - Bullish as of Nov. 28

Euro --- Bullish as of October 10.

Gold ----Bearish as of November 29.

Silver---- Bearish as of November 29.

Crude oil ----Bearish as of Nov. 27.

Toronto Stock Exchange---- Bullish as of September 20, 2017.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  

Screen Shot 2017-12-06 at 3.19.06 PM

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.



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