Todd Market Forecast: Put Call Ratio Bullish

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Tuesday, 07 November 2017 16:13

 Tuesday November 7, 2017 - Available Mon- Friday after 3:00pm PST.

DOW + 9 on 465 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 19 on 1264 net declines



STOCKS: The market mostly slipped on Tuesday. Earnings were the main culprit and interestingly enough, dropping interest rates were cited. The latter because supposedly lower rates pressure banks. I think this is nonsense. Stocks rallied from '09 through much of 2016 precisely because rates were near zero. But, we have to admit that the XLF or the financial ETF was down over 1% today.

Part of the problem was an overbought RSI on many indices. That can be ignored for a while, but at some point it tends to be a deterrent.

GOLD: Gold was fell back $5. The yellow metal is just waffling around right now.

CHART: The CBOE put call ratio closed above 1.0 today. When that happens, the S&P has a tendency to move higher over the next day or three.  

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 2.26.11 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We bought the SSO at 102.50. Let's stay with it through Wednesday.

System 8 We are in cash. Stay there for now.

System 9 We are in cash.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Job openings (JOLTS) were 6.093 million, more than the expected 6.082 million. On Wednesday we get oil inventories.

INTERESTING STUFF: “Why don’t they pass a constitutional amendment prohibiting anybody from learning anything? If it works as well as prohibition did, in five years we will have the smartest people on earth.” ----Will Rogers

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto added another 40.   

BONDS: The bond market moved still higher.

THE REST: The dollar moved slightly higher. Crude oil hesitated today after a big run.

Bonds --Bullish as of October 27.

U.S. dollar - Bullish as of October 20.

Euro --- Bullish as of October 10.

Gold ----Bullish as of November 1.

Silver---- Bullish as of November 1.

Crude oil ----Bullish as of October 10.

Toronto Stock Exchange---- Bullish as of September 20, 2017.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 2.30.12 PM

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.  


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